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messioso
Denmark635 Posts
On August 09 2015 03:53 Aeromi wrote: Just apply as a volunteer, they won't find you if you don't make the first move. I started working for ESL as a volunteer over 6 years ago, fyi. Also can't wait to see you all tomorrow, I'll be back for the semi's and finals at gamescom  ))) | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24239 Posts
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Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
countdown - | ||
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ChoDing
United States740 Posts
SKT1 all day every day....sigh | ||
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MiniFotToss
China2430 Posts
On August 09 2015 08:59 ChoDing wrote: Former SKT1 vs Current SKT1 on both sides... SKT1 all day every day....sigh MMA is former SlayerS, he was only in SKT for like a brief time in 2008 & 2009 because he knew Boxer, then he started his career basically in SlayerS, so MMA doesn't count. But still, SKT, all day everyday (Yaaaaaaay) | ||
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intotheheart
Canada33091 Posts
On August 09 2015 12:15 MiniFotToss wrote: MMA is former SlayerS, he was only in SKT for like a brief time in 2008 & 2009 because he knew Boxer, then he started his career basically in SlayerS, so MMA doesn't count. But still, SKT, all day everyday (Yaaaaaaay) SKT for a few months still super counts because he was still on SKT. Although he was on SKT for BW. SKT best KT confirmed? | ||
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louisderez
22 Posts
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MiniFotToss
China2430 Posts
On August 09 2015 12:29 IntoTheheart wrote: SKT for a few months still super counts because he was still on SKT. Although he was on SKT for BW. SKT best KT confirmed? SKT always best KT | ||
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Deathstar
9150 Posts
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RKC
2848 Posts
Seriously, I would so watch a slug fest between Inno, soO, Dark, Classic, Dream... well, maybe also extend the invitation to all former SKT players like Rain, Parting, Soulkey, Fantasy.... and maybe also mix up with some BW games and invite Bisu... Seriously, someone make it happen. | ||
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Cascade
Australia5405 Posts
Maps: 25 - 6 (81% winrate) Series (11 bo3, 2 bo5): 12 - 1 (92% winrate) foreign map winners: Nerchio: 3 Happy: 1 Lilbow: 1 Lambo: 1 Foreign series winner: Nerchio: 1 Korean map losers: MMA: 2 Patience: 2 Fanta: 1 ForGG: 1 Korean series loser: Patience: 1 Conclusions: Nerchio is the foreign hope, MMA and especially patience are the shame of Korea.  Note: I didn't include open bracket, as it presumably is full of lower level foreigners, and wouldn't be a fair comparison. In practice it'd be another 6-0 for Patience. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 IEM Gamescom Final Day + Show Spoiler [Changes During This Tournament] + Biggest Winners   FanTaSy went up by 20.99%, going from 67.78% to 88.78%  sOs went up by 8.25%, going from 23.47% to 31.72%  HyuN went up by 5.43%, going from 27.01% to 32.44% MyuNgSiK went up by 5.1%, going from 3.16% to 8.26% INnoVation went up by 3.83%, going from 94.03% to 97.86% soO went up by 2.54%, going from 14.51% to 17.05% Bbyong went up by 1.73%, going from 4.2% to 5.93% MMA went up by 0.25%, going from 0.88% to 1.13%Biggest Losers Dear went down by 12.98%, going from 16.95% to 3.97% Lilbow went down by 5.49%, going from 19.02% to 13.54% Dark went down by 4.95%, going from 64.77% to 59.82% Rogue went down by 4.74%, going from 67.69% to 62.96% ForGG went down by 3.4%, going from 15.94% to 12.54% Solar went down by 2.33%, going from 12.14% to 9.81% Stats went down by 2.26%, going from 7.34% to 5.08%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + TY went down by 2.11%, going from 10.16% to 8.05% GuMiho went down by 1.91%, going from 5.87% to 3.96% Curious went down by 1.26%, going from 10.12% to 8.87% Jaedong went down by 0.99%, going from 10.18% to 9.19% MaNa went down by 0.93%, going from 1.32% to 0.39% Snute went down by 0.9%, going from 7.83% to 6.93% Bomber went down by 0.67%, going from 0.68% to 0.01% Bunny went down by 0.55%, going from 1.32% to 0.78% MarineLorD went down by 0.4%, going from 4.14% to 3.74% uThermal went down by 0.28%, going from 0.84% to 0.56% Harstem went down by 0.26%, going from 0.99% to 0.74% ShoWTimE went down by 0.25%, going from 2.39% to 2.13% Petraeus went down by 0.22%, going from 1.22% to 0.99% ByuL went down by 0.21%, going from 99.46% to 99.26% Soulkey went down by 0.15%, going from 0.31% to 0.16% Flash went down by 0.13%, going from 0.37% to 0.23% TRUE went down by 0.13%, going from 0.26% to 0.13% viOLet went down by 0.13%, going from 0.57% to 0.44%Chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon went from 39.12% down to 31.18% Chances of 2+ foreigners at Blizzcon went from 2.68% down to 1.05% soO vs FanTaSy in in IEM Gamescom semifinals. soO has the #2 Headband. soO is at 17.05% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 20.4%, or 12.83% if they lose. FanTaSy is at 88.78% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.3% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 95.4%, or 83.51% if they lose. MMA vs INnoVation in in IEM Gamescom semifinals. MMA is at 1.13% Blizzcon Chances, with a 36.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.63%, or 0.84% if they lose. INnoVation is at 97.86% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.09% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.01%, or 95.9% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [IEM Gamescom Winning Chances] + INnoVation has a 34.07% chance to win----going from 97.86% to 99.78% if they get 1st, or 96.87% if they don't. soO has a 33.13% chance to win----going from 17.05% to 23.48% if they get 1st, or 13.86% if they don't. FanTaSy has a 21.53% chance to win----going from 88.78% to 98.76% if they get 1st, or 86.04% if they don't. MMA has a 11.28% chance to win----going from 1.13% to 2.63% if they get 1st, or 0.94% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [IEM Gamescom Placements Table] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/XZAalwo.png?1) Branches + Show Spoiler [If soO Wins IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3166 -If soO wins IEM Gamescom, he goes up to 23.48% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 8th in GSL, he goes down to 15.88% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 4th in GSL, he goes up to 50.05% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 95.12% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 49.46% + Show Spoiler [If soO Gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3172 -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom, he goes down to 15.88% -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom and 4th in GSL, he goes up to 19.03% -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 70.64% -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 31.92% + Show Spoiler [If soO Gets 4th in IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3172 -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom, he goes down to 12.83% -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 4nd in GSL, he goes down to 12.12% -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 45.39% -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 26.55% + Show Spoiler [If Fantasy Wins IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3167 -If Fantasy wins IEM Gamescom, then he goes up to 98.76% -If Fantasy wins IEM Gamescom and gets 32nd in GSL, then he goes to 97.21% + Show Spoiler [If Fantasy Gets 4th in IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3170 -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom, then he goes down to 83.51% -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 32nd in GSL, he goes down to 67.72% -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 16th in GSL, he goes to 90.47% -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 8th in GSL, he goes up to 98.75 -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 4th in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 98.52% + Show Spoiler [If Fantasy Gets 32nd in GSL] + Branch #3175 -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL, then he goes down to 77.77% -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 4th in IEM Gamescom, he goes down to 67.72 -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 2nd in IEM Gamescom, he goes to 83.97% -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 1st in IEM Gamescom, he goes up to 97.21% -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 8th in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 94.77% + Show Spoiler [If MMA Wins IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3168 -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom, then he goes up to 2.63% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and gets 8th in GSL, he goes up to 4.13% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and gets 4th in GSL, he goes up to 18.64% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and gets 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 75.74% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and wins GSL, he goes up to 100% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and wins DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 27.76% + Show Spoiler [If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL] + Branch #3174 -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL, then he goes down to 79.43% -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL and gets 16th place in MSI Masters, he goes down to 60.32% -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL and gets 4th in MSI Masters, he goes to 90.95% -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL and gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes to 98.42% | ||
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Cascade
Australia5405 Posts
On August 09 2015 15:50 Die4Ever wrote: WCS Predictor 2015 IEM Gamescom Final Day + Show Spoiler [Changes During This Tournament] + Biggest Winners FanTaSy went up by 20.99%, going from 67.78% to 88.78% sOs went up by 8.25%, going from 23.47% to 31.72% HyuN went up by 5.43%, going from 27.01% to 32.44% MyuNgSiK went up by 5.1%, going from 3.16% to 8.26% INnoVation went up by 3.83%, going from 94.03% to 97.86% soO went up by 2.54%, going from 14.51% to 17.05% Bbyong went up by 1.73%, going from 4.2% to 5.93% MMA went up by 0.25%, going from 0.88% to 1.13%Biggest Losers Dear went down by 12.98%, going from 16.95% to 3.97% Lilbow went down by 5.49%, going from 19.02% to 13.54% Dark went down by 4.95%, going from 64.77% to 59.82% Rogue went down by 4.74%, going from 67.69% to 62.96% ForGG went down by 3.4%, going from 15.94% to 12.54% Solar went down by 2.33%, going from 12.14% to 9.81% Stats went down by 2.26%, going from 7.34% to 5.08%+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] + TY went down by 2.11%, going from 10.16% to 8.05% GuMiho went down by 1.91%, going from 5.87% to 3.96% Curious went down by 1.26%, going from 10.12% to 8.87% Jaedong went down by 0.99%, going from 10.18% to 9.19% MaNa went down by 0.93%, going from 1.32% to 0.39% Snute went down by 0.9%, going from 7.83% to 6.93% Bomber went down by 0.67%, going from 0.68% to 0.01% Bunny went down by 0.55%, going from 1.32% to 0.78% MarineLorD went down by 0.4%, going from 4.14% to 3.74% uThermal went down by 0.28%, going from 0.84% to 0.56% Harstem went down by 0.26%, going from 0.99% to 0.74% ShoWTimE went down by 0.25%, going from 2.39% to 2.13% Petraeus went down by 0.22%, going from 1.22% to 0.99% ByuL went down by 0.21%, going from 99.46% to 99.26% Soulkey went down by 0.15%, going from 0.31% to 0.16% Flash went down by 0.13%, going from 0.37% to 0.23% TRUE went down by 0.13%, going from 0.26% to 0.13% viOLet went down by 0.13%, going from 0.57% to 0.44%Chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon went from 39.12% down to 31.18% Chances of 2+ foreigners at Blizzcon went from 2.68% down to 1.05% soO vs FanTaSy in in IEM Gamescom semifinals. soO has the #2 Headband. soO is at 17.05% Blizzcon Chances, with a 55.7% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 20.4%, or 12.83% if they lose. FanTaSy is at 88.78% Blizzcon Chances, with a 44.3% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 95.4%, or 83.51% if they lose. MMA vs INnoVation in in IEM Gamescom semifinals. MMA is at 1.13% Blizzcon Chances, with a 36.91% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 1.63%, or 0.84% if they lose. INnoVation is at 97.86% Blizzcon Chances, with a 63.09% chance to win this match. If they win their Blizzcon Chances go up to 99.01%, or 95.9% if they lose. + Show Spoiler [IEM Gamescom Winning Chances] + INnoVation has a 34.07% chance to win----going from 97.86% to 99.78% if they get 1st, or 96.87% if they don't. soO has a 33.13% chance to win----going from 17.05% to 23.48% if they get 1st, or 13.86% if they don't. FanTaSy has a 21.53% chance to win----going from 88.78% to 98.76% if they get 1st, or 86.04% if they don't. MMA has a 11.28% chance to win----going from 1.13% to 2.63% if they get 1st, or 0.94% if they don't. + Show Spoiler [IEM Gamescom Placements Table] + Branches + Show Spoiler [If soO Wins IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3166 -If soO wins IEM Gamescom, he goes up to 23.48% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 8th in GSL, he goes down to 15.88% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 4th in GSL, he goes up to 50.05% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 95.12% -If soO wins IEM Gamescom and gets 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 49.46% + Show Spoiler [If soO Gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3172 -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom, he goes down to 15.88% -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom and 4th in GSL, he goes up to 19.03% -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 70.64% -If soO gets 2nd in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 31.92% + Show Spoiler [If soO Gets 4th in IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3172 -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom, he goes down to 12.83% -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 4nd in GSL, he goes down to 12.12% -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 45.39% -If soO gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 2nd in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 26.55% + Show Spoiler [If Fantasy Wins IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3167 -If Fantasy wins IEM Gamescom, then he goes up to 98.76% -If Fantasy wins IEM Gamescom and gets 32nd in GSL, then he goes to 97.21% + Show Spoiler [If Fantasy Gets 4th in IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3170 -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom, then he goes down to 83.51% -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 32nd in GSL, he goes down to 67.72% -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 16th in GSL, he goes to 90.47% -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 8th in GSL, he goes up to 98.75 -If Fantasy gets 4th in IEM Gamescom and 4th in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 98.52% + Show Spoiler [If Fantasy Gets 32nd in GSL] + Branch #3175 -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL, then he goes down to 77.77% -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 4th in IEM Gamescom, he goes down to 67.72 -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 2nd in IEM Gamescom, he goes to 83.97% -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 1st in IEM Gamescom, he goes up to 97.21% -If Fantasy gets 32nd in GSL and 8th in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 94.77% + Show Spoiler [If MMA Wins IEM Gamescom] + Branch #3168 -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom, then he goes up to 2.63% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and gets 8th in GSL, he goes up to 4.13% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and gets 4th in GSL, he goes up to 18.64% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and gets 2nd in GSL, he goes up to 75.74% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and wins GSL, he goes up to 100% -If MMA wins IEM Gamescom and wins DreamHack Stockholm, he goes up to 27.76% + Show Spoiler [If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL] + Branch #3174 -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL, then he goes down to 79.43% -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL and gets 16th place in MSI Masters, he goes down to 60.32% -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL and gets 4th in MSI Masters, he goes to 90.95% -If Innovation loses in IEM, GSL, and SSL and gets 4th in DreamHack Stockholm, he goes to 98.42% Thanks! What's the probability of soo going to the GSL final? When the branches are calculated several games ahead, do they take into account the changed ELO from the first games, or are they calculated with fix ELO through all games? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On August 09 2015 15:56 Cascade wrote: Thanks! What's the probability of soo going to the GSL final? When the branches are calculated several games ahead, do they take into account the changed ELO from the first games, or are they calculated with fix ELO through all games? 7.86% of the time. soO gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change soO's chances from 17.05% to 99.97% 5.58% of the time. soO gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change soO's chances from 17.05% to 67.55% So 13.44% chance for soO to make the GSL finals. The Aligulac ratings (it's similar to Elo but not exactly the same) are not adjusted for simulated/predicted matches. If they were then it would be too easy for players to snowball up or down in rating and make most of the simulations one-sided. Also the matches are not strictly simulated in chronological order, it does 1 tournament at a time. Many times matches aren't scheduled yet so it'd be impossible to do that anyways. | ||
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Deathstar
9150 Posts
On August 09 2015 15:49 Cascade wrote: Summarising Korea vs Foreignlandia from second group stage and elimination stage: Maps: 25 - 6 (81% winrate) Series (11 bo3, 2 bo5): 12 - 1 (92% winrate) foreign map winners: Nerchio: 3 Happy: 1 Lilbow: 1 Lambo: 1 Foreign series winner: Nerchio: 1 Korean map losers: MMA: 2 Patience: 2 Fanta: 1 ForGG: 1 Korean series loser: Patience: 1 Conclusions: Nerchio is the foreign hope, MMA and especially patience are the shame of Korea. Note: I didn't include open bracket, as it presumably is full of lower level foreigners, and wouldn't be a fair comparison. In practice it'd be another 6-0 for Patience. Patience has some work to do, but the shame of Korea title are for the JAGW players who all lost to foreigners like Morrow and Arium at DH. Nice summary | ||
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Cascade
Australia5405 Posts
On August 09 2015 16:05 Die4Ever wrote: 7.86% of the time. soO gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change soO's chances from 17.05% to 99.97% 5.58% of the time. soO gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 3 This would change soO's chances from 17.05% to 67.55% So 13.44% chance for soO to make the GSL finals. The Aligulac ratings (it's similar to Elo but not exactly the same) are not adjusted for simulated/predicted matches. If they were then it would be too easy for players to snowball up or down in rating and make most of the simulations one-sided. OK, ty. Well, yes it would snowball, but that is how it works. If soo wins IEM, he is more likely to win GSL as well, and that is what your model would say if we asked it after IEM. There is a correlation in reality, and in your model if you plug in the data as already happened, so I don't see why you wouldn't take it into account in your simulations as well. If there are problems with implementing it I understand, it is probably not a big difference. But if by choice, I find it a bit odd. Anyway, great model, thanks. | ||
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Sh1bby
Germany711 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mT4H8Uk.jpg) OT: I have a few beta keys for playing the allied commander mode - 4 or 5 I believe. PM me if you want one. Gonna send them later today... | ||
Olli
Austria24422 Posts
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lastride
2390 Posts
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