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Blizzcon Day 2 - Page 111

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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Watch how you approach the topic of match fixing. You can speculate, saying "I'm not so sure about the finals, something doesn't sit right with me," but if you are going to outright accuse players of match fixing you need something more than your word.

TL takes match fixing/abuse seriously and as such there is a burden a proof when you are accusing players.

- p4NDemik
sixfour
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
England11061 Posts
October 22 2011 21:22 GMT
#2201
On October 23 2011 06:20 positron. wrote:
Can anyone give a quick recap of MVP vs. Nestea? Why is MVP doing so badly. It must be his wrists or something.


game 1 - nestea uses the stephano build, owns
game 2 - close position shattered, nestea obv all-ins, nestea wins
p: stats, horang2, free, jangbi z: soulkey, zero, shine, hydra t: leta, hiya, sea
MRMultiBryn
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden78 Posts
October 22 2011 21:22 GMT
#2202
Are they going to show anything on the live stream?
ZAiNs
Profile Joined July 2010
United Kingdom6525 Posts
October 22 2011 21:23 GMT
#2203
On October 23 2011 06:20 positron. wrote:
Can anyone give a quick recap of MVP vs. Nestea? Why is MVP doing so badly. It must be his wrists or something.

Game 1: MVP played pretty bad and took a quick third while pushing with Tank Marine. NesTea clears it super cost-effectively with pure Ling. NesTea counters with Ling Infestor and MVP has bad simcity. NesTea wins.

Game 2: Close position Shattered lolol. MVP does his normal reactor Helion CC, NesTea Roach all-ins and wins.

Bad series.
Jyvblamo
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada13788 Posts
October 22 2011 21:23 GMT
#2204
On October 23 2011 06:22 OTIX wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2011 06:19 da_head wrote:
wait. let me get this fuckin straight. sen and naniwa are playing now, and we dont get to see the games why?

Come on, they can't show games and trivia at the same time, something has to take priority.

This.

Blizzard can't please both SC2 fans and trivia fans at the same time.
4ZakeN87
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden1071 Posts
October 22 2011 21:23 GMT
#2205
Baah, so boring with Naniwa. He looked like a beast otherwise, thought he could have a real chanse against MVP.

That just made this tournament 90% less interesting. Nestea takes it almost for certain now. MVP doesnt look be in his right state of mind, and even if Sen somehow takes MVP is he really going to take down Nestea in ZvZ. Somehow I doubt it.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler" Einstein
justinpal
Profile Joined September 2010
United States3810 Posts
October 22 2011 21:23 GMT
#2206
On October 23 2011 06:22 Odoakar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2011 06:19 Leifish wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:18 Kokujin wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:12 TheBB wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:08 Koshi wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:07 TheBB wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:54 redloser wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:52 cyclone25 wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:50 Kamais_Ookin wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:48 ZAiNs wrote:
[quote]
Naniwa and BratOK both took a game off him in group stage.
Anyone can take a game but when it comes to a BO5/7 it's 0% chance for them.


All games are bo3, the only exception is the overall final where the player coming from the lower bracket has to win 2x bo3.


winning two consecutive Bo3's against Nestea would be harder than winning a single Bo5 I think :/

I ran the numbers. Two consecutive Bo3's are actually easier to win.

Kidding me? Seriously?
What numbers did you run?


Herp derp. I switched my probabilities. Anyway:

Let p be the probability of Nestea winning a given set.

Then the probability of a challenger winning a best of three is (2p+1)(1-p)^2, and the probability of the challenger winning two in a row is (2p+1)^2(1-p)^4.

The probability of the challenger winning a best of five, however, is (1+3p+6p^2)(1-p)^3.

The ratio of the former to the latter is (2p+1)^2(1-p)/(1+3p+6p^2) = (1+3p-4p^3)/(1+3p+6p^2) < 1.



what kind of jibberish is this? the probability of any player winning a set no matter bo3 or bo5 is 50% given each player is equally skilled, and in this case we have that assumption.
immvp has to win two coinflips to win the series, while nestea has to win one.
thus, bo5 is easier than two bo3.



To ad hominim here, you're an idiot.



Exactly. I was channeling my inner cartman, like the fuck is this shit? o_0

That's like saying I have 50% chance to score a goal from 500 miles from goal. Either I score or I don't.


I had a friend in high school that said I had a 50% chance to become president in 10 years. "You either do or you don't." Needless to say I'm a convicted murderer.
Never make a hydralisk.
ThaZenith
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada3116 Posts
October 22 2011 21:23 GMT
#2207
Arg. I do love Sen, but I have to admit I went "fuck" when I saw Sen had won. Really wanted a possibility of Naniwa/Nestea, even if anyone getting past MVP is unlikely. xD
habbey
Profile Joined September 2010
United States405 Posts
October 22 2011 21:23 GMT
#2208
On October 23 2011 06:20 ThisGS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2011 06:19 justinpal wrote:
Why are the semis and finals for both brackets Bo3 if they aren't streaming every match?


for the same reason they use this mappool.


Actually it has to stay at bo3 because it is double elim, otherwise it'd be really unfair to the players. So this is the right choice by blizzard.
foxmeep
Profile Joined July 2009
Australia2337 Posts
October 22 2011 21:24 GMT
#2209
If by looking at this schedule, you cannot figure out why there is downtime... well then you're an idiot.

http://us.battle.net/blizzcon/en/event-info/schedule/saturday-schedule

Hint: there's more than just SC2 at Blizzcon
Herr Wilhelm
Profile Joined July 2011
Chile170 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-10-22 21:25:24
October 22 2011 21:24 GMT
#2210
Blizzcon sc2 invitational organization sucks, it's been awful we could see i think not even the half of the games.
Also maps suck so badly.
At least there are good players...
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
October 22 2011 21:24 GMT
#2211
When people do math, the LR thread always gets more funny.
I had a good night of sleep.
tymt
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden293 Posts
October 22 2011 21:25 GMT
#2212
On October 23 2011 06:15 OTIX wrote:
Don't be mad guys, how about some religion to pass the time?

http://www.livestream.com/carmellive

thank you for this, you saved my evening. <3
Elurie
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
4716 Posts
October 22 2011 21:25 GMT
#2213
MVP is just having a 'bad' day. Really doubt his losses against Nestea has anything to do with his wrists. It just looked like a build order loss.
justinpal
Profile Joined September 2010
United States3810 Posts
October 22 2011 21:25 GMT
#2214
On October 23 2011 06:23 habbey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2011 06:20 ThisGS wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:19 justinpal wrote:
Why are the semis and finals for both brackets Bo3 if they aren't streaming every match?


for the same reason they use this mappool.


Actually it has to stay at bo3 because it is double elim, otherwise it'd be really unfair to the players. So this is the right choice by blizzard.


Why? The players would have to play more games?
Never make a hydralisk.
FryktSkyene
Profile Joined December 2010
United States1327 Posts
October 22 2011 21:25 GMT
#2215
On October 23 2011 06:23 ThaZenith wrote:
Arg. I do love Sen, but I have to admit I went "fuck" when I saw Sen had won. Really wanted a possibility of Naniwa/Nestea, even if anyone getting past MVP is unlikely. xD


Nani/Nestea already played.

We just got to watch 2 unknown zergs play a terrible ZvZ series instead.
;/
Snitches get stiches
PhyreHazard
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada298 Posts
October 22 2011 21:26 GMT
#2216
I really hope Sen can win vs MVP. He will finaly get his GSL rematch with Nestea
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
keioh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
France1099 Posts
October 22 2011 21:26 GMT
#2217
On October 23 2011 06:20 Doombreed74 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2011 06:18 Kokujin wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:12 TheBB wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:08 Koshi wrote:
On October 23 2011 06:07 TheBB wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:54 redloser wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:52 cyclone25 wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:50 Kamais_Ookin wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:48 ZAiNs wrote:
On October 23 2011 05:47 Kamais_Ookin wrote:
[quote]Obviously Sen/Naniwa have 0% chance of beating Nestea in a series.

Naniwa and BratOK both took a game off him in group stage.
Anyone can take a game but when it comes to a BO5/7 it's 0% chance for them.


All games are bo3, the only exception is the overall final where the player coming from the lower bracket has to win 2x bo3.


winning two consecutive Bo3's against Nestea would be harder than winning a single Bo5 I think :/

I ran the numbers. Two consecutive Bo3's are actually easier to win.

Kidding me? Seriously?
What numbers did you run?


Herp derp. I switched my probabilities. Anyway:

Let p be the probability of Nestea winning a given set.

Then the probability of a challenger winning a best of three is (2p+1)(1-p)^2, and the probability of the challenger winning two in a row is (2p+1)^2(1-p)^4.

The probability of the challenger winning a best of five, however, is (1+3p+6p^2)(1-p)^3.

The ratio of the former to the latter is (2p+1)^2(1-p)/(1+3p+6p^2) = (1+3p-4p^3)/(1+3p+6p^2) < 1.



what kind of jibberish is this? excluding psychological factors, the probability of any player winning a set no matter bo3 or bo5 is 50% given each player is equally skilled, and in this case we have that assumption.
immvp has to win two coinflips to win the series, while nestea has to win one.
thus, bo5 is easier than two bo3.



Funniest thing I've read all day. This is definitely how stats works, honest...


Agreed. This was the funniest probability reasoning I read in my entire math life.
GIMME ALL THE BELGIAN WAFFLES I CAN GET FOR THIS MONEY !!!!!! BELGIAN WAFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFLEEEEEEEEES
27raven
Profile Joined October 2010
Czech Republic89 Posts
October 22 2011 21:26 GMT
#2218
On October 23 2011 06:24 foxmeep wrote:
If by looking at this schedule, you cannot figure out why there is downtime... well then you're an idiot.

http://us.battle.net/blizzcon/en/event-info/schedule/saturday-schedule

Hint: there's more than just SC2 at Blizzcon


So what? There is more than SC2 on ESWC but they were streaming replays in the meantime..
fish83814
Profile Joined July 2010
Taiwan98 Posts
October 22 2011 21:27 GMT
#2219
On October 23 2011 06:20 positron. wrote:
Can anyone give a quick recap of MVP vs. Nestea? Why is MVP doing so badly. It must be his wrists or something.


it has nothing to do with wrists or something like that
just straight up bad decisions and build order lose
svefnleysi
Profile Joined March 2011
Iceland623 Posts
October 22 2011 21:27 GMT
#2220
I'm a Nestea fan, but I feel really bad for MVP. Everyone was expecting him to win both tournaments, but now it looks like he'll be taking neither.

By the way, screw Starcraft - TriviaCraft for the win.
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