tbh I think IdrA just lost because his ZvZ is his worst matchup. He looked really good vs Nestea, but he is still inconsistent with losing to LiveZerg in ESWC and his TLPD shows it.

flowSthead

1065 Posts

December 08 2011 16:38 GMT

#2966

On December 09 2011 01:19 s4life wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 09 2011 01:07 flowSthead wrote:

On December 09 2011 01:00 s4life wrote:

On December 09 2011 00:56 flowSthead wrote:

On December 09 2011 00:41 SeaSwift wrote:

On December 09 2011 00:26 Twistacles wrote:
Ohhh it was bo1s? That explains idra/sen not qualifying. Kinda lame, though.

The statistical difference between Bo1s, Bo3s and Bo5s is actually pretty small IIRC. If you are strong enough to 2-0 or 2-1 a player, chances are you are strong enough to 1-0 them, 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 them.

Sure, there is a little bit more variance, but not much.

The statistical difference doesn't show the real difference though. Of course the person who wins the first game has a greater chance to take a best of three, or even a best of 5. That should be obvious to anyone that knows how to do math. But that doesn't mean that best of 1s are therefore equally fair to best of 3s. Even if it is a small difference, that difference can create big changes in a tournament. Look at DRG's recent interview about his Coda A match against Taeja. DRG said that he expected to lose the first map because it was Antiga Shipyard and he expected to win the other two, which he did. If it was a best of 1 then he would have straight up lost.

That would probably be true if one bo1 decided whether your qualify or not, but 6 bo1s should be enough to remove the effect of random variables, like map selection and so on. But frankly, map selection shouldn't be a factor in mirror match ups, so your argument fails there, coz Idra lost two of them. Also, given how zergs are dominating the groups, I'd argue that if anything, maps have been fairly favorable to the swarm.

I'm not attacking or defending Idra. I don't care about Idra. I am talking about best of 1s. And of course maps affect mirror matchups because you do not play the same way on every single map. Some maps are better for attacking and some maps favor the defender. Some maps are better for a roach infestor style, and some maps favor a ling/baneling/infestor style. Some maps favor mutalisk style (or if you are Nestea, all maps favor Mutalisk style). Are you arguing that a player is going to be good at every single style? Well, MVP probably is, but I would argue most players are not. So yes, maps can affect mirror match ups.

But, using Idra as an example, consider this. Killer beat Orly and Idra, and Orly beat Idra. If these were all best of 3s that turned out the same except that Idra beat Killer, then Killer, Orly, and Idra would be in a 3way tie with a score of 4-2. Maybe Killer goes through anyway, maybe Orly or Idra do. The point I am making is that even in the case of a 4.7% difference in results (1 out of 21 sets of best of threes) the difference in the tournament can be significant if one player goes through and another doesn't.

In a mirror match up, you either adapt and use the best build/style suited for the map in question, or simply you should lose, because your opponent would have shown to be better than you if he's able to use that. I think inflexibility should be punished.. perhaps you don't.

That's only true if the differences are statistically significant, a point which you haven't proven yet.

Here is a quote from a different thread:

On November 22 2011 10:57 Darkstar_X wrote:
Best of 1 is actually extremely indicative of a series.
Data from GSL May:
In Code A, of the 31 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 23 times (74.2%).
In Code S, of the 15 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 13 times (86.6%).
Data from GSL July:
In Code A, of the 31 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 24 times (77.4%).
In Code S, of the 15 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 14 times (93.3%).

If you look through any other seasons you will find similar. This shows that even best of one game series is unlikely to change the outcome of the winner. In fact, you could just watch the first game of a Code S match and have a 90% accuracy in predicting the winner of the match. You could argue that there is a chance of an upset, however, that is smaller than the variation that occurs at a tournament from other factors. Tournaments never tell you definitively who is a better player, just who won today.

I happen to disagree that difference is not significant. A 15% or 25% difference in players of similar skill can have relatively significant differences in a tournament. That was kind of my point in using the example of a difference of 4.7%. I am not saying that it would definitively change things. I was saying that it could change things.

kenshin096

China16 Posts

December 08 2011 16:41 GMT

#2967

Seems Chinese players got paid for their hard work on korean ladder.

Xigua,6:0,convincing success, S class level as some korean players said,was a darkhorses.

F91, I am not surprised if he takes down any favorite and fails to underdogs,inconsistent player ever.

Macsed is a solid and defensive protoss,he is definitely not the player with great potential but now he can rank top4 protoss in China.His group is much tougher...good luck~

allen_ami

China1392 Posts

December 08 2011 16:44 GMT

#2968

xigua got stomped by Lyn in G-league for like 10 games...dont know y ppl think he is Code-S material...

SafeAsCheese

United States4924 Posts

December 08 2011 16:47 GMT

#2969

On December 09 2011 01:44 allen_ami wrote:
xigua got stomped by Lyn in G-league for like 10 games...dont know y ppl think he is Code-S material...

He almost lost vs Happy when he was 4 base vs 2 ><

daxile

Canada829 Posts

December 08 2011 16:48 GMT

#2970

On December 09 2011 01:44 allen_ami wrote:
xigua got stomped by Lyn in G-league for like 10 games...dont know y ppl think he is Code-S material...

People are saying he's code-S material? that's kind of ridiculous.

I think he's good though, i'm interested to see how far the chinese scene takes SC2.

babylon

8765 Posts

December 08 2011 17:00 GMT

#2971

XiGua is probably A-class at best, but even then it's hard to say. Lyn usually just walks all over him, and Lyn's not even A-class material atm.

najreteip

Belgium4158 Posts

December 08 2011 17:01 GMT

#2972

Orly T.T
So close to going through

Still a very good result I suppose

kenshin096

China16 Posts

December 08 2011 17:01 GMT

#2973

On December 09 2011 01:44 allen_ami wrote:
xigua got stomped by Lyn in G-league for like 10 games...dont know y ppl think he is Code-S material...

Mb you don't know Code-S material stuff just came from lyn's mouth. 2:0,0:2,0:2.2:3,these are records between lyn and Xigua.During that time, Lyn's teammate Toodming slayered lyn by 6:0(possibly 10:0).Therefore ,Toodming>Xigua? I don't think so.

swordboy

Canada299 Posts

December 08 2011 17:01 GMT

#2974

XiGua plays far better than he did in IEM Guangzhou, however the best opponent in his group stage is Kas and that was a close game, XiGua was at the edge of throwing away his game at one point. XiGua need more games to prove himself. Btw, Artosis said XiGua is GSL material, it makes sense, because he is between Code A and Code B just like most top non-Koreans.

aintz

Canada5624 Posts

December 08 2011 17:04 GMT

#2975

i would say xigua is code b material. i dont see him winning much in code a.

babylon

8765 Posts

December 08 2011 17:06 GMT

#2976

On December 09 2011 02:01 kenshin096 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well, keep in mind Lyn's playing War3 at the same time. (Impressive performance yesterday by Lyn in WCG too.) If a full-time SC2 pro can't beat a part-time SC2 pro, I don't know how you can say he's Code S material.

claash

Poland472 Posts

December 08 2011 17:16 GMT

#2977

On December 09 2011 01:41 kenshin096 wrote:
Seems Chinese players got paid for their hard work on korean ladder.

Xigua,6:0,convincing success, S class level as some korean players said,was a darkhorses.

F91, I am not surprised if he takes down any favorite and fails to underdogs,inconsistent player ever.

Macsed is a solid and defensive protoss,he is definitely not the player with great potential but now he can rank top4 protoss in China.His group is much tougher...good luck~

chineses usually work and practice like slaves to be honest so its normal they are getting better

Powdercake

United States19 Posts

December 08 2011 17:16 GMT

#2978

For anyone the EST timezone (-5) who doesn't want to have to convert all the times in their head, here is the schedule of the games with EST times and 12-hour format.

+ Show Spoiler +

hmsrenown

Canada1263 Posts

December 08 2011 17:17 GMT

#2979

On December 08 2011 23:25 Roynalf wrote:
Very supprising results, I am seriously confused about skill level of chinese players, they havent done so well on tournaments before and now they are showing great results

F91 is notorious for inconsistent play...Starcraft whackamole since 2004. XiGua is an up-and-coming player, no surprise to see unstable results.

MuK_x

743 Posts

December 08 2011 17:19 GMT

#2980

IdrAhahahahahahahaha

wow XiGua is really good.