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United States12607 Posts
OK, I've just woken up. Let me try to address at least some of the many comments sitting here. To everyone offering thanks and well-thought-out criticisms: thanks for commenting! To everyone writing garbage posts in this thread: your willingness to make yourself look idiotic is highly entertaining, but I am not going to respond to your posts!
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1) T1 and ZerO vs. Jaedong???
First, can anyone explain to me how liking T1 would make me rank ZerO above JD? I just don't understand this line of reasoning. As the raging, insane, frothing-at-the-mouth, I'm-going-to-put-every-T1-player-in-the-fucking-PR-for-no-reason T1 fan that I apparently am, I'm probably just as likely to hate ZerO considering he knocked Bisu out of the last MSL...and both JD and ZerO have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games against T1 players. Anyway, I really don't get this one...there must be some necessary connection between T1 fandom and JD-hating that I am totally unaware of.
2) Reactionaries
There are now several posters in this thread who have posted some strong reaction against my PR and then followed it up with their own proposed rank - the funny thing is, for how indignant their original reactions are, their ranks end up being near-identical to mine (maybe swapping 1 player or changing 1). Maybe I'm not as off the reservation as you initially thought?
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On May 15 2009 18:45 Geo.Rion wrote:
Zero is a dangerous zerg, arguably as good as Effort, arguably better than Calm, yarnc ..., but to compare him with JD.... No... His TLPD looks so good, but c'mon wins over Iron and Orion just cannot be taken into account.
I would be honored if you'd answer this post.
I want to address your post first because it's a lot nicer than the others in this thread  . I'm going to keep it short because I think I've already written nearly everything I'd like to write about Zero vs. Jaedong - check out my comment towards the top of page 4 of this thread for an explanation which I think will address the core of the argument you presented in your post here (seems to be "JD hasn't fallen off nearly enough to be in 4th position this month"). The jist is that, while JD is still a monster and his 5 recent losses do not say much about his odds in all of the bazillion SLs he's still alive in, they're still five losses - that's three more than ZerO who, I should remind you, just 4-0d into the OSL Ro16, is alive in GOM, and a MSL seed (how many people can say they're alive in 3 leagues? Not many...ZerO is one too though ^^).
Also I'd like to address your comment here that ZerO has been playing mainly scrubs lately. This really isn't the case. Yes Yarnc and Luxury have fallen off lately in ZvZ, but they are still immensely talented at the matchup and, when you're evaluating ZerO's ZvZ performance over the past month I think it's most important to look at consistency - i.e. he went undefeated across a host of high-caliber players, not just that he beat one or two "big names". Also take a look at Kal 3x. We all know Kal has been playing like garbage lately, but PvZ is still his best matchup and he didn't just lose to ZerO, he got obliterated. Even forgetting the infested game (which is an example of how ZerO is capable of adapting to new maps, Kal seemed totally unprepared for it actually), in game 2 of their OSL series ZerO proved that he's just miles ahead of Kal in this MU. That's a big deal to me. So yeah, wins over IrOn and Orion aren't the reason ZerO is in this rank. He's taken out other big names recently, and in an impressive fashion.
4) On May 15 2009 21:11 Chill wrote:Nice writeup  Even though I've read your justifications, I still think Zero > JaeDong was a mistake. Other than that it looks right to me. The other case you could make is TheZerg @ 10, but frankly, that spot could go to 10 players so it's not a big deal. Thanks JWD.
Thanks Chill!
5) On May 15 2009 14:57 Avidkeystamper wrote:
Hey JWD, how close was ZerO and Fantasy to switching spots on this PR? I'd like to hear your thoughts.
The top 5 players in this rank are all absurdly close, so I'm not going to speak in absolute terms here. But ZerO was further behind Fantasy than Jaedong was behind ZerO, by some margin. The main reason for this is (and this is something which separates Fantasy from JD as well) that I see Fantasy as not only an S-class player who is in top form in every way, but also the game's biggest threat as a tactical innovator (possibly with the help of oov and boxer at every turn). We see this come out in his games every month, and last was no exception: hidden expo on Outsider vs. Anytime, for example. Fantasy's ability to come up with and execute unique and successful builds just puts him a cut above ZerO and JD at the moment I think, but Bisu had the far more convincing performance over the past month.
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On May 15 2009 23:56 tedster wrote:
The whining about Jaedong is ridiculous. It doesn't matter if he's the theoretical best or theoretical #2, all that matters is that he is performing at a lower level than Bisu, Fantasy, and ZerO. Nothing else makes the slightest bit of difference in a power ranking - this is not a "prediction of the future" or "who has the most hardware" ranking, it's a measure of who has been the most dangerous opponent recently.
If you can honestly argue that JD has been a more dangerous opponent for the last month than ZerO or Fantasy it's because you don't actually watch games.
You take into account mostly recent results and the way they played in their games to try to determine who is the best players at the moment.
Completely ignoring everything before this month is going to show alot of false strength imo, although I agree that the last months performance should have the heaviest influence.
Going from not even being on the PR to being above a player, who's obviously strong enough for the #1 spot and just had a few hickups right after his OSL win and is playing great again, is just too huge of a leap for having a good record vs players that aren't even on the PR this month.
He hasn't done enough to rise this much.
If he won a starleague I would consider putting him above jaedong but it would still feel wrong since jaedong hasn't done anything wrong.
Jaedong wins almost everything, then he loses a few games and goes back winning again.
PR is a measure of success that necessarily favors recent results - otherwise there would be virtually no movement at all. It attempts to describe the current trending of players, and while it will always consider past tournament results and big matches the ranking would be totally useless without the "season-by-season" method of drawing new conclusions each month or so.
I don't think that the 1st 2nd and sometimes 3rd spot should be changed too often.
The players such as jaedong and bisu have earned the benefit of a doubt by playing the way they have been for a very long time now. A few games isn't going to change that.
The lower ranks 4-10 would still change around pretty fast.
Unless one of the very top players shows signs of slumping there is no reason to be too hastic to move them around the ranks. If a lower ranked player plays really good one month, he should move up, but before taking the highest spots he has to do something spectacular, unless the top players have played really bad. Zero hasn't done anything spectacular.
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Stylish, I think you're missing something when you refer to "the new zerg at the zergthrone". Does anyone think ZerO can yet contest JD for "best zerg on the planet"? God no, that's stupid, and he has a long way to go. But every sport has seasons, and some teams have bad years. The Red Sox don't win the World Series every year, even when they have the best players. Sometimes they get outplayed for an entire year, despite being the better team. Does this mean they aren't the best collection of players in the game? No, they still are the most dangerous opponent overall, JUST NOT AT THAT TIME. And you can't rank them at the top of a PR in a season where they are losing too many more games than their opponents.
SC is very comparable to Baseball in terms of win% for good players/teams and some of the random elements that go into the game. Both have great teams sometimes losing to subpar teams and both have enough games played that the best usually rise to the top. And both see otherwise dominant players have off seasons - during which time other players or teams are able to rise above them for a time.
PR is a measure of success that necessarily favors recent results - otherwise there would be virtually no movement at all. It attempts to describe the current trending of players, and while it will always consider past tournament results and big matches the ranking would be totally useless without the "season-by-season" method of drawing new conclusions each month or so.
I agree that it's absolutely important to consider past-recent results (otherwise even #4 wouldnt make sense for player going 50% recently) but even as a major fan of JD his play has been lacking this month. If not for his success before this period he really wouldn't have a place on the PR and that is enough to justify a drop to me. I could see an argument for him at #3, but honestly I think that would be unjust towards ZerO who has quite clearly been the #2 or #3 player in the game over the last month or so.
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United States12607 Posts
On May 16 2009 00:13 tedster wrote:
PR is a measure of success that necessarily favors recent results - otherwise there would be virtually no movement at all. It attempts to describe the current trending of players, and while it will always consider past tournament results and big matches the ranking would be totally useless without the "season-by-season" method of drawing new conclusions each month or so.
I think this is a really good point, thanks tedster.
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Nice to see Zero up there!
But on the other hand, Luxury ...
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As I said, even I wouldn't put Zero above Jaedong, but I think it's worth noting that lately Zero has had to carry Woongjin just as much as Jaedong has had to carry Oz. Everyone else on Woongjin is playing like crap lately, including Free.
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I think part of the problem with a SC power rank is that the seasons happen so rapid-fire, back-to-back, that it's difficult to properly weigh a previous tournament/season's success with respect to current production. In most sports you have many, many months to ascertain a team's dominance, an off-season to scout them, and a new year to start somewhat fresh after the previous season's tournament.
In SC you literally start playing again the next day, and there's no time to stop and wait before determining where a player stands. At the same time, I think this virtually requires a shuffling at the top of the PR even after a short period of time if the previous top players aren't performing. It's technically a new season and you have to measure players on their performance in competition, at least to a degree.
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I would like to stress the fact that this PR is actually pretty good. I like the writeup and the effort.
Our oppinions about jaedong zero and fantasy differ, but they often do.
The jaedong/zero is the only major mistake with the PR in my oppinion.
Thezerg being 10th spot doesn't really matter that much, I would put Hogil and calm instead of kespa and thezerg.
I feel that this hasn't been a good period of time in the progaming scene to shuffle around so much.
So I hope you don't feel that I'm just whining, I like discussing the PR:D
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United States12607 Posts
On May 16 2009 00:22 StylishVODs wrote:
So I hope you don't feel that I'm just whining, I like discussing the PR:D
Not at all! When I get a second I'll try to address some of the points you've raised that I haven't covered already...thanks for the comments.
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After thinking about it a little longer, I want to make one more comment:
My problem with Zero's ranking is that I'm biased pretty much against all Zergs right now due to the sudden predominance of ZvZ thanks to KeSPA (hi, Battle Royale!). I know that the fact there's a ton of ZvZs now means having a good ZvZer matters a lot now. I know Zero's churning out results, and I know he's leading my team to ...decency? Yeah, that's another problem. Woongjin's sitting pretty on a mediocre record, and Zero isn't so good that I automatically say "screw the team record" (see: Flash).
So yes, this month Zero's earned the spot and I shouldn't be arguing with it. And part of me is jumping for joy (Whooo Zero!) But I hate seeing people get a spot I "know" is going to be ephemeral. When/if the maps improve, Zero's going to drop back down to a contender for the 8-10 spots - if that. Here's hoping I'm wrong.
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A lot of the people complaining about the Power Rank seem to try and equate it to the Kespa ranking where it is based off a 3 month period. The Power Rank has strictly been a month on stats alone with blinders on anything before and probable after. People have dropped off mysteriously from one high rank one month to not being on completely.
That being said, sure there are always issues with a power rank, but I think this one was fairly well done considering it was between starleagues.
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this is funny, because everyone just claims fanboy even when this is mostly based off proleagues and elimination rounds. MST/ OSL offline quals... A lot of the players in the top spots have shown good performances in ALL OF THE ABOVE, or at least most of them. Bringing home to green is important. I think JWD highlighted this, and it's hard to hate on this unless you like dickriding JD all the time. Some slots could be varied, but what PR does everyone agree with. Give or take a few games, based on performances I thought this was a good PR, the zerg was a little hard for me myself to see in it, but he has been doing amazing things lately and stepping up. Leta I think should be higher, because he's getting scary again. With that said, I would've thought backho would be 10th but I dunno, maybe I'm dumb.
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LOL at kespa!!! hahahahahaha
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Oh yes, I've been waiting a long, long time to see ZerO up there. Thezerg too, but he doesn't deserve it like ZerO does. ZerO has been CBNC forever.
While I do feel Jaedong should be a bit higher, this is a great PR, JWD. Cheers!
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ok so u put Bisu above Jd, I was expecting that, np
Fantasy 2, fine
..but zero ?
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nice writeup and thanks... i'm happy that bisu is #1 again after losing so badly to fantasy.
it has been a controversial PR especially on zero vs jd. but anyway, at least all of us (i assumed) agree that kespa is included in this month's power rank... cheers to kespa! haha
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why are people always saying Bisus pvz is super imba gosu ownage? is it because he revolutionized pvz in 2007? i mean its really good, but pvp is his best match-up i think.
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No, seriously, TheZerg over Calm.
Seriously.
Over Great as well!
Come on. There hasn't been a legitimate reason for why TheZerg is over Calm and Great yet.
The jist is that, while JD is still a monster and his 5 recent losses do not say much about his odds in all of the bazillion SLs he's still alive in, they're still five losses - that's three more than ZerO who, I should remind you, just 4-0d into the OSL Ro16, is alive in GOM, and a MSL seed (how many people can say they're alive in 3 leagues? Not many...ZerO is one too though ^^).
The only difference between Zero and JD in the tournament standings right now is that Zero is an MSL seed for getting 3rd/4th, whereas Jaedong is an OSL seed for winning the OSL. Jaedong lost more games to get there but...uh, since when did that matter? Jaedong has always dropped games before rebounding an obliterating who he dropped the game to to proceed on to wreck shit up. Everytime he has been the "dominant" player, he still dropped games in series/pseudo-series. It didn't matter because he still got everywhere he needed to get and always ended up playing like an absolute beast.
Jaedong is no different between these two PRs than he ever was when he was on top. Dropping him down 3 places for being as good as he ever was is a damn shame.
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United States12607 Posts
On May 16 2009 02:11 TwoToneTerran wrote:
No, seriously, TheZerg over Calm.
Seriously.
Over Great as well!
Come on. There hasn't been a legitimate reason for why TheZerg is over Calm and Great yet.
Please see my comment on page 4 (I'll quote it for you here):
On May 15 2009 13:48 JWD wrote:
3) Thezerg in 10th
When Power Ranking, wins and losses shouldn't all be given equal weight - even if they're between the same players. Much has to do with the context or significance of those wins: are they in high-pressure situations? Are they contributing to some crucial trend in SC right now - like a new strategy's emergence, a SL title run, or a great PL streak?
The primary reason I gave Thezerg the nod over a slew of other players with admittedly similar records is that his recent performance reflects a major turnaround not only in his individual skill, but the strength of his entire team. T1's remarkable dominance in R4 of PL (no this is not blind fandom, I mean for fuck's sake SK Telecom T1 is in SECOND PLACE in Fantasy PL at the moment) would simply not have been possible without Thezerg, and that means that his wins over the past month mean just that much more than those of say, Calm or by.great.
by.great does deserve credit for taking out Bisu and free with his innovative strat on Neo Medusa, but check out his other recent opponents: they're all powderpuffs. Not to mention great is sitting on a 3-game losing streak and he dropped out of GOM to ZergBong. ZergBong!!
Calm has a great record over the past month and he does deserve props for being alive in MST (though that may only be because his group isn't complete yet), but he's faced a similarly weak host of opponents. Young2x, RorO, Anytime, MVP, oDin, go.go2x, Tempest?? These are not players we should be impressed to see Calm beat. The nail in Calm's coffin for this PR was his absolutely pathetic performance against Bisu in MST...damn was that sad to watch.
Thezerg, on the other hand, has dealt with JangBi, HiyA, GoRush (yeah, GoRush is decent these days, especially in ZvZ on Battle Royal), and, most significantly in my mind, gave Leta a real series in the OSL Ro36. Yes he ended up getting embarrassed by wraith play, but do you honestly think Calm or by.great would have even taken a game from Leta? I'm a skeptic.
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EPT
