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On February 15 2009 01:46 fanatacist wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2009 00:06 adelarge wrote:On February 14 2009 18:02 baubo wrote:On February 14 2009 10:25 adelarge wrote:On February 14 2009 09:57 fanatacist wrote:
How many players tried to find ways to deal with map imbalance? Well, definitely not Bisu, seeing how he played like total ass on Tears of the Moon and then even had the guts to blame that map for his second loss on totaly different map... On the other hand, Flash and Katrina, that's totally diferent story... Tears of the Moon is 11-2 ZvP. That is, btw, worse than Mercury's 14-4 ZvP, or Monty Hall's 11-5 PvZ, to name some infamous maps. As for the two wins, I didn't watch Backho's game. But Kal's win was an unexpected one-base timing attack, which is unlikely to work in the future now that zergs know protoss can't FE on the map. So how is Bisu wrong? As for Bisu vs Flash in GOM, it was one protoss favored map(Medusa which Flash won), one terran favored map(sin-Chupuny-Ryeong which Flash lost because he fucked up his timing push) and one slightly protoss favored map(Destination where Bisu simply outplayed him). While GOM maps were protoss favored, you can't blame Flash's loss on it, especially since he WON on the map that was heavily favored against him. He asked how many players tried to find ways to deal with map imbalance. And I replied, that definitely not Bisu...not because he lost, but the way he did it. He tried to play totally standard, no deviation, no creativity, nothing. I've never questioned the ZvP imbalance of Tears... And how is he wrong?? The major problem I have here is his bitching that he lost the SECOND game because he was in shock. What the hell?? If he though Tears were such an imbalanced maps, why he didn't practice for the next two maps? How could he be thrown out of balance if he knew that Tears were so imba? It was BO3 and Tears were only the first map. I would expect more tactics and mental strenght from player of his caliber. I had a great respect for Bisu, but I lost a big amount of it after that interview. And Flash vs Bisu - don't try to compare the imbalance of Medusa with Sin-Chupung. Medusa is much worse than Sin-Chupung could ever be. It's more like you have one Protoss heaven (Medusa) and two reasonably imbalanced (if there even is such thing) maps (Sin and Destination). With Flash schedule it isn't impossible to imagine, that he trained more on Medusa (because that map is almost in every league) and hoped he could take the win on Sin-Chupung or Destination. It's very speculative...but wait, did I somewhere blame the Flash loss in GOM on maps?? You clearly underestimate the importance of mind games. Why do you think people cheese in the first game of a Bo5 like Stork/July did? It's to get a mental edge. Your mental state is just as important if not moreso than your tactics and strategy and mechanics in this game. The best PvZ getting raped so brutally on a new map - that is like a knife to the mind of anyone. If I beat you in a humiliating fashion at your reputedly best matchup (not as true for Bisu anymore, but it's not that bad either), would you feel confident in our next match? No. Similar concept applies. He explained his reason for not performing in the next match, due to very understandable reasons. Get over it. Sin Chupung Reyung PvT: 5-8 (38.5%) Medusa PvT: 35-14 (71.4%) Destination PvT: 28-22 (56%) If we go by pure statistics, the total % of the three maps combined divided by 300% SHOULD be the chance that a player of that race would beat an equal skill opponent of the opposing race. So... (38.5+71.4+56)/300 = 165.9/300 = .553 I'd say that is pretty balanced.
Sorry, but you are totally wrong here - in the mind games aspect.
Situation one: I'm going to play BOX. The first map is pretty balanced so I practice mostly standard play. I practice it for hours and hours over and over. I became really good in it. I beat most of my practice partners easily. I'm really confident I can take my opponent here. And then the game come and he 4 pool/DT rush/bunker rush me and I lose. All my preparations was totally useless, the hours of training were vasted. My confidence is crushed. If he was able read me like a book in game one, what is he going to do next? THEN is totally acceptable to be mentaly shaken.
Situation two: I'm going to play BOX. The first map is total rubbish. I really try to practice hard, but then come to conclusion that this map is almost impossible for straight up standard play. What am I going to do?
a) Just play standard, get raped and looking like wtf just happened here and be in SHOCK that I lost??
b) Focus on other maps (it's BOX remember) and be ready than I can really easily lost on the first one, but be prepared it can happen and be able to move on and show my best on other maps?
I think everybody can see which situation are chesses by July or Stork you mentioned and in which situation was Bisu. And everybody can also see which solution he chose...
It's not like Bisu didn't know which map they are going to play, eh? He KNEW it will be Tears, he KNEW it's imba map from his practice, and yet he got mentally shaken after the loss? It's equally stupid to sleeping with your girlfriend without any protection and then be mentally shaken she become pregnant  .
Bisu's crying over loss which he could have expected and therefore mentally prepared for it was something I would expect from 12 years old player on iccup, not from one of the best toss ever. There is no excuse. Get over it.
And just to show you that you cannot use that simply math here, one counterexample:
First map 33%
Second map 33%
Third map 100%
(33+33+100)/300 = what a surprise! 0,553...
And don't even try to tell me this BO3 is pretty balanced...
No even mention the mind games connected with it...
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On February 15 2009 07:45 fanatacist wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2009 05:57 wswordsmen wrote:On February 15 2009 01:46 fanatacist wrote:
Sin Chupung Reyung
PvT: 5-8 (38.5%)
Medusa
PvT: 35-14 (71.4%)
Destination
PvT: 28-22 (56%)
If we go by pure statistics, the total % of the three maps combined divided by 300% SHOULD be the chance that a player of that race would beat an equal skill opponent of the opposing race. So...
(38.5+71.4+56)/300 = 165.9/300 = .553
I'd say that is pretty balanced. Your not weighting it by number of games played (not that would have any direct result on the number you got, but it would change the conclusion considerably). The odds of protoss equalizing the stats (assuming equal players in each game) on Sin Chupung Reyung are 1/8 if it really is perfectly balanced, similarly terrans coming back on Destination is 1/64. However the odds of Medusa ever seeing balanced stats TvP is 1/2097152. So essentially we have 1 fairly balanced map, 1 nearly completely unknown map, and one that clearly has a protoss bias, yet you are counting the stats as equal anyway. Also due to sample size differences the terran bias of Sin Chupung ~ the protoss bias of destination. Not really sure where you are getting these numbers from (I trust you, tentatively), but 1/8th isn't that big, and even if it were to equalize it'd just signify a change in gameflow on the map, much like how new strategies affect the development of any map (PvT on Katrina, PvZ on Destination, etc. etc.). At the time of their games, Chupung was considered a Terran-favored map. Medusa was considered a Protoss-favored map. End of story.
1/8 is genuinely ginormous when compared to 1/2000000 something. Do you know basic statistics, the game differences on destination and sin chupung reyung aren't statistically significant at any reasonable level, while medusa's imbalance is statically significant at the .05 level (p was actually .02 or .03 compared to ~.4 for the other 2). Saying sin chupung reyung cancels out Medusa is simply absurd.
Of course my method isn't definitive, but it's not my fault that the amount of games played is less on one map than on another. I could make a confidence interval which would make my conclusion even more statistically sound, but that is too much work. Instead I will do this:
Yes it is, you must select analysis techniques that work with idiosyncrasies in your data, like maps with different numbers of games played.
Sum of P wins on maps / Number of games on maps
68 / 112 = .607
Now, this would be a more accurate statistic I guess, and still not drastically imbalanced.
This is a much fairer statistic, and the fact you don't think 60% win rate is "drastically imbalanced" is insane.
However, Flash won on Medusa... So if the other two maps are "unknown" and balanced in your opinion, how could Flash lose? Clearly imbalance isn't everything.
I was never arguing for flash I was arguing against your crime against statistics.
Full disclosure: I am a Flash fanboy, but that does not invalidate the flaws I pointed out. As for Bisu vs. Flash for top player right now we'll see.
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The point is... the map pool atm isn't even that bad, see, was it, the Ro32 pool for example... Medusa, Neo Requiem and... what was the third map? Doesn't matter, though, even Rush Hour 3 couldn't make it balanced with those 2 maps in there. I think it was something like Chupung Ryeong, which was P>T as well.
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atm, Flash plays better than Bisu, imho
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Meh too lazy to argue anymore, GG~
I believe Bisu's accomplishments up to this point in the month are greater than Flash's and I argued this point. I stick to this point until I see overwhelming evidence otherwise, or in future games.
In terms of Flash vs. Bisu, we will see soon again, I hope, but right now the Bo3 is the clearest example in my mind.
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It's February 15th, guys. There's still at least two weeks until the next PR. Let's just wait until we have some more evidence.
Someone said you shouldn't take into account Bisu/Flash in GOM - are you kidding? You might as well not even count the OSL or MSL group stages.
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On February 16 2009 10:25 traced wrote:
It's February 15th, guys. There's still at least two weeks until the next PR. Let's just wait until we have some more evidence.
Someone said you shouldn't take into account Bisu/Flash in GOM - are you kidding? You might as well not even count the OSL or MSL group stages.
QFT.
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Even if Flash < Bisu in a series right before the PR comes out flash can still > Bisu on the PR depending on results vs other gamers imo..
Who's making the next PR? Manifesto?
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Flash now with higher ELO than Bisu again. Good job with Guemchi, Bisu!
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sAviOr will go undefeated in February, I guarantee it.
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On February 17 2009 06:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
sAviOr will go undefeated in February, I guarantee it.
Yeah, Savior actually said "I will destroy everyone in February 2009!", but the word February is really hard to hear for some reason...  .
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It's hard to weigh Bisu vs Flash at the moment. Bisu
+ Show Spoiler +loses random games against people like Guemchi, hero, Zero, and Light; all of whom are decent or even excellent (particularly the last two), but I want more from a #1 PR. His recent record is quite spotty.
Flash just wins in everything, as evidenced by his insane 9-game streak against top-notch players (Jaedong, ForGG, Kal, Hwasin x2, Leta).
But... Bisu won GOM. And beat Flash along the way. I think any call made between them right now has to be a bit subjective, depending on what you value. Do you feel that winning a league is the final argument? Bisu wins. Are you looking at how impressive their 10 most recent games are? Flash wins. Do you care which of the two beat the other in a series? Bisu wins. Do you care about winner's league ... at all? Flash wins.
Basically the only way to make this call is to decide on what criteria are most important to the PR, because each of the two players has strong qualifications that the other lacks at the moment. Of course, hopefully the next two weeks will clear things up a bit.
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On February 17 2009 07:31 Djabanete wrote:It's hard to weigh Bisu vs Flash at the moment. Bisu + Show Spoiler +loses random games against people like Guemchi, hero, Zero, and Light; all of whom are decent or even excellent (particularly the last two), but I want more from a #1 PR. His recent record is quite spotty. Flash just wins in everything, as evidenced by his insane 9-game streak against top-notch players (Jaedong, ForGG, Kal, Hwasin x2, Leta). But... Bisu won GOM. And beat Flash along the way. I think any call made between them right now has to be a bit subjective, depending on what you value. Do you feel that winning a league is the final argument? Bisu wins. Are you looking at how impressive their 10 most recent games are? Flash wins. Do you care which of the two beat the other in a series? Bisu wins. Do you care about winner's league ... at all? Flash wins. Basically the only way to make this call is to decide on what criteria are most important to the PR, because each of the two players has strong qualifications that the other lacks at the moment. Of course, hopefully the next two weeks will clear things up a bit.
that's an excellent way of putting it.. I couldn't have said it better myself.
edit: I think it was jaedong x 2 as well..
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On February 17 2009 07:31 Djabanete wrote:It's hard to weigh Bisu vs Flash at the moment. Bisu + Show Spoiler +loses random games against people like Guemchi, hero, Zero, and Light; all of whom are decent or even excellent (particularly the last two), but I want more from a #1 PR. His recent record is quite spotty. Flash just wins in everything, as evidenced by his insane 9-game streak against top-notch players (Jaedong, ForGG, Kal, Hwasin x2, Leta). But... Bisu won GOM. And beat Flash along the way. I think any call made between them right now has to be a bit subjective, depending on what you value. Do you feel that winning a league is the final argument? Bisu wins. Are you looking at how impressive their 10 most recent games are? Flash wins. Do you care which of the two beat the other in a series? Bisu wins. Do you care about winner's league ... at all? Flash wins. Basically the only way to make this call is to decide on what criteria are most important to the PR, because each of the two players has strong qualifications that the other lacks at the moment. Of course, hopefully the next two weeks will clear things up a bit.
This.
Of course, I think that if you're saying that the PR is about who is scariest NOW, then Flash has to have the upper edge. Flash has simply been unstoppable, doing ridiculous things in WL. He's on a 9-game winstreak, and if you look at his recent games list it contains half of the candidates for the rest of the PR. All on a crazy schedule including 2 leagues and carrying his team practically solo.
Bisu just doesn't have the same kind of recent results. Yes he's winning, and winning a lot, but he's played relatively few S-class gamers and has dropped games that he really shouldn't.
Basically, in my mind, I have some (very small) doubts about Bisu's recent ability, while any lingering doubts about Flash's invincibility are gone. Bisu would probably be the only player that might be considered a favorite over Flash (it would be incredibly close), but Flash is playing all three match-ups like a monster and is putting up results and consistency on probably the most difficult schedule ever.
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On February 17 2009 07:31 Djabanete wrote:It's hard to weigh Bisu vs Flash at the moment. Bisu + Show Spoiler +loses random games against people like Guemchi, hero, Zero, and Light; all of whom are decent or even excellent (particularly the last two), but I want more from a #1 PR. His recent record is quite spotty. Flash just wins in everything, as evidenced by his insane 9-game streak against top-notch players (Jaedong, ForGG, Kal, Hwasin x2, Leta). But... Bisu won GOM. And beat Flash along the way. I think any call made between them right now has to be a bit subjective, depending on what you value. Do you feel that winning a league is the final argument? Bisu wins. Are you looking at how impressive their 10 most recent games are? Flash wins. Do you care which of the two beat the other in a series? Bisu wins. Do you care about winner's league ... at all? Flash wins. Basically the only way to make this call is to decide on what criteria are most important to the PR, because each of the two players has strong qualifications that the other lacks at the moment. Of course, hopefully the next two weeks will clear things up a bit.
<fanboy rant>
Back when Bisu just won MSL and Stork the OSL, there was a large debate on whether Bisu or Stork should be #1 on the PR EVEN THOUGH Stork had an abysmal proleague record (I think around 25% win rate starting from the OSL victory to the next PR). It was as if everyone basically ignored the PL record and the most recent games of Stork (which should have hurt him immensely), or at least put very little weight to it. The deciding factor is Bisu's BO3 over Stork on that special even, but prior to that, the argument was basically in a stalemate.
So unless the PR all of the sudden changed its criteria for some reason, the individual leagues and face-offs hold much more weight than PL/WL and most recent games.
</end fanboy rant>
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On February 17 2009 11:55 p4fn2w wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2009 07:31 Djabanete wrote:It's hard to weigh Bisu vs Flash at the moment. Bisu + Show Spoiler +loses random games against people like Guemchi, hero, Zero, and Light; all of whom are decent or even excellent (particularly the last two), but I want more from a #1 PR. His recent record is quite spotty. Flash just wins in everything, as evidenced by his insane 9-game streak against top-notch players (Jaedong, ForGG, Kal, Hwasin x2, Leta). But... Bisu won GOM. And beat Flash along the way. I think any call made between them right now has to be a bit subjective, depending on what you value. Do you feel that winning a league is the final argument? Bisu wins. Are you looking at how impressive their 10 most recent games are? Flash wins. Do you care which of the two beat the other in a series? Bisu wins. Do you care about winner's league ... at all? Flash wins. Basically the only way to make this call is to decide on what criteria are most important to the PR, because each of the two players has strong qualifications that the other lacks at the moment. Of course, hopefully the next two weeks will clear things up a bit. <fanboy rant> Back when Bisu just won MSL and Stork the OSL, there was a large debate on whether Bisu or Stork should be #1 on the PR EVEN THOUGH Stork had an abysmal proleague record (I think around 25% win rate starting from the OSL victory to the next PR). It was as if everyone basically ignored the PL record and the most recent games of Stork (which should have hurt him immensely), or at least put very little weight to it. The deciding factor is Bisu's BO3 over Stork on that special even, but prior to that, the argument was basically in a stalemate. So unless the PR all of the sudden changed its criteria for some reason, the individual leagues and face-offs hold much more weight than PL/WL and most recent games. </end fanboy rant>
As a Flash fanboy I agree with you
Bisu #1
Flash #2
Which isn't really saying much. I mean Flash still gets praise for at least being #2. Of course the rankings will change depending if Flash wins the MSL or OSL.
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Well, Flash is currently doing Better in the individual category and WL. The criteria for PR is who is playing better, and Individual titles are a consequence of great play, but does not constitute it, and in turn, a higher placement in the PR. Flash is rolling most of his opponents, S-class too, while Bisu is putting up great tense games, but not the dominance that is needed to pass Flash atm.
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On February 17 2009 12:14 Avidkeystamper wrote:
Well, Flash is currently doing Better in the individual category and WL. The criteria for PR is who is playing better, and Individual titles are a consequence of great play, but does not constitute it, and in turn, a higher placement in the PR. Flash is rolling most of his opponents, S-class too, while Bisu is putting up great tense games, but not the dominance that is needed to pass Flash atm.
Although I agree with your last sentence, I'm not sure about your first two. How is Flash doing better in SL's than Bisu?
Also, the criteria for the PR should take into account great play not just from this month, but the months before. Many people have said this for a very long time now, Fakesteve among them. Flash is only showing better play over Bisu recently, but if you extend before that you can see Bisu holding a more impressive history, including beating Flash in a BO3 and in proleague.
edit: Oops, not FakeSteve. It was actually OneOther. Sorry!
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On February 17 2009 12:22 p4fn2w wrote:
Although I agree with your last sentence, I'm not sure about your first two. How is Flash doing better in SL's than Bisu?
Well...Flash is in both MSL and OSL, Bisu is only in OSL. Of course, there's still two more weeks in the month for things to happen.
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EPT
