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On February 17 2011 07:57 Mortality wrote:
What are you people talking about?
Bisu has historically always had a strong PvT. The problem with Bisu is that historically speaking his PvT has never been on the same level as his PvZ and PvP. And so it's his PvT that "holds him back." (That and his encounters with Stork, which usually go in Stork's favor.)
I've never really understood the argument that his PvT is bad. He might not match-up well against the very best TvPers, but only Stork and BeSt have a better PvT record than Bisu, at least among Protoss with a reasonable number of games played.
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On February 17 2011 06:51 Assymptotic wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2011 06:29 l0st_romantic wrote:On February 17 2011 06:12 Assymptotic wrote:On February 17 2011 02:37 l0st_romantic wrote:On February 16 2011 22:42 Lightwip wrote:On February 16 2011 19:13 Holgerius wrote:
JD still looking weak vs top players and Bisu still looking questionable in his PvT (but holy fuck his PvZ!!!). =/ Erm, Bisu questionable in PvT? He loses 2 games, 1 to Flash, 1 to someone who took a game off Stork(Bisu had a pretty bad BO disadvantage), and won the rest of his games with solid play and that makes his PvT questionable? By the same logic, I could say that Flash needs work in TvZ lategame judging only from his game vs Zero. Honestly, the only thing questionable about Bisu's play is his games vs Stork. By what logic? Bisu has historically never had a strong PvT. He has never demonstrated consistent dominance in the matchup. Bisu has never won a PvT individual league finals. Hence, his default position going into this month is one of questionable skill. The two losses in Winners' League do not negate that trend. Bisu needs to demonstrate a month of dominance in PvT before that claim can be changed. Flash, on the other hand, is 3-1 in Bo5 Finals versus Jaedong, and has a 69.8% winrate in TvZ versus Bisu's 61% winrate in PvT. Hence his TvZ position going into the month is one of unquestioned dominance. To prove that point: if you had to bet on a terran to win against any zerg, which terran would you pick? The vast majority of Starcraft watchers would pick Flash (with a section picking Light, but only a small section). But if you had to pick a protoss to win against any terran, would the vast majority pick Bisu? Hell, more people would pick Stork or Snow in that situation. Flash's loss against Zero doesn't negate that dominance. Does that logic make sense to you? Most PvT losses are BO losses anyhow--the matchup is the single one least susceptible to multitask/mechanics and most susceptible to game sense and management. Look at the recent Fantasy vs Stork series. Did Fanta win through superior multitask? Hell naw, he was fighting single-front battles with less than 36 units for most of the game time. By that logic it's well acknowledged on TL that Bisu has the best multitask of any P but only mediocre game sense. Hence his BO loss in PvT can strengthen that claim. And it's not like when he gets advantageous BOs he wins either. Look at his game versus Flash. Bisu was in a position where he could expand once to 5 bases, play it safe, and seal the deal on Icarus. Instead, Bisu decides to triple expand to seven bases, knowing full well that he is playing someone with OoV/Savior-caliber game sense and timings, and who plays Terran, the race that can catch you expanding without ever leaving their base by pressing "0" and "s". Trying to excuse that sort of mistake is like blaming the campus slut for having STDs after you decided to ride bareback. I suggest you look up his PvT record during 2009. His only significant loss was to 1) the semi-finals of the Batoo OSL against Fantasy, who is the 2nd best TvPer to have ever existed, and an excellent player when it comes to preparation. He later avenged himself in the Avalon MSL by going 2-0 against Fantasy. 2) Iris, where Bisu threw away his advantage in game 5 during the quarter-finals of the Avalon MSL. 1) How do you define significant? 2) Look at his 2010 record 3) "Never" may be too strong of a word here. How about "for the past 16 months". Remember Bisu losing 5 straight PvTs to people like Firebathero and shortly thereafter crashing out of the OSL to go.go in a Bo3? Dropping random games to scrubs is acceptable. Dropping a Bo3 to a game-fixer with one of the worst TvPs in history, while letting his opponent get away with a 1 rax double expand--that's just sad. 4) Have you ever seen a Bisu PvT where he demonstrates excellent game sense? #1: Significant as in costing him a chance at a Starleague. Also significant as in they were Bo5s, which many consider 'the real test of skill'. #2: +60% winrate is extraordinary in the world of Progaming. Hell, even holding +50% over a modest sample, say 50 games, is enough to get you on the A-team in most cases. #3: my hypothesis that Bisu is so bad at PvT BoX formats is because he practices a lot against Fantasy, who is known for doing 'weird' stuff. In order to deflect weird stuff, people usually play safe/standard (i.e. Gate->Obs->Expand); which is why Bisu gets predictable and ends up losing to players who 'study' him. #4: Yes, on Destination, in any match-up. Bisu + Destination = auto-win. In particular, I remember Bisu vs. Flash and Bisu vs. Leta. Lol, I just looked it up, only Skyhigh has a better record on that map. I almost forgot Skyhigh was once a promising rookie. Edit: If you haven't seen it, I HIGHLY recommend the Bisu vs. Leta one. Mind games at it's finest, but very different from the Stork vs. Flash mind games yesterday.
Don't forget, we're not arguing whether his PvT is "good"; we're arguing whether we can doubt it. Something can be "good" and questionable at the same time. In order for it to not have doubt, it has be dominant, something on the order of Flash's TvZ, for example.
1) What about proleague losses? Also, he dropped prelims games to go.go that contributed to his being relegated to offline prelims for a while...
2) What is Bisu's 2010 winrate?
3) What about dropping 5 straight PvTs in WL? And look at his PvT ELO--he can't beat strong TvPers. Bisu isn't the favorite against any strong TvP sniper--Hiya, Flash, Really, Fantasy.
4) Lol? As a sidenote, remember his game against a KT zerg on Desti that ended up lurk-containing him to 4 bases, and then Bisu slowly committed seppuku into a lurker field over and over and over again? Also, Desti isn't in the map pool any more. What we're trying to figure out is whether Bisu's TvP, as of NOW, TODAY, etc, is as dominant as Flash's TvZ.
And the answer is no.
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On February 18 2011 00:32 l0st_romantic wrote:
4) Lol? As a sidenote, remember his game against a KT zerg on Desti that ended up lurk-containing him to 4 bases, and then Bisu slowly committed seppuku into a lurker field over and over and over again? Also, Desti isn't in the map pool any more. What we're trying to figure out is whether Bisu's TvP, as of NOW, TODAY, etc, is as dominant as Flash's TvZ.
And the answer is no.
That game was vs Hoejja, and it was awesome.
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First, I don't know why you're asking if Bisu's PvT is as dominant as Flash's TvZ, since you and Assymptic seem to be living in a tangent world where you are both arguing with each other and agreeing. Lightwhip's point was never that Bisu's PvT is "as good as Flash's TvZ," but that the basis for "still looking questionable at PvT" is two games that anybody could have lost and that picking at a player to that degree is silly (e.g. we could also criticize Flash for his TvZ loss to Zero, completely ignoring Flash's absurd win rate and solid play in pretty much every game except a single loss to Hyuk, which by now has been proven to be anomalous... and then some).
And I don't know where we've come to the idea that in order for a match-up to not be questionable you have to be favored to win over anyone by a lot. Basically you are saying that the only players in history to have not been "questionable" were the bonjwas.
So far this season, Bisu is 9-2 in PvT. Wins over Really (2-0, actually not very strong at TvP lately), Baby (3-0 #7 TvP ELO), Iris (2-0, #9 TvP ELO), Bogus (#4 TvP ELO), and Sea (#3 TvP ELO, even still). That's actually a very, very strong record, comparable to anything Stork is capable of producing. In terms of recent results (this season, which has now been going on for 4 months), Bisu has been doing very well. Given his poor PvT last season and given that -- while he's playing very good -- I don't feel like I've seen anything that special out of him, I don't feel hesitant to rate Stork, Best or Snow higher. Keep in mind that while Best might be 3-4 this season, he started the season off with an ELO peaking win over Flash, and likewise, while Snow is 4-4, he's faced incredibly high caliber players, including Flash twice. Yeah, he may have been looking closer to unbeatable last May when he toppled Flash, Sea, Really, and Fantasy on a 9 game win streak, but he was probably the #1 PvTer in the world at that time.
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On February 18 2011 00:32 l0st_romantic wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2011 06:51 Assymptotic wrote:On February 17 2011 06:29 l0st_romantic wrote:On February 17 2011 06:12 Assymptotic wrote:On February 17 2011 02:37 l0st_romantic wrote:On February 16 2011 22:42 Lightwip wrote:On February 16 2011 19:13 Holgerius wrote:
JD still looking weak vs top players and Bisu still looking questionable in his PvT (but holy fuck his PvZ!!!). =/ Erm, Bisu questionable in PvT? He loses 2 games, 1 to Flash, 1 to someone who took a game off Stork(Bisu had a pretty bad BO disadvantage), and won the rest of his games with solid play and that makes his PvT questionable? By the same logic, I could say that Flash needs work in TvZ lategame judging only from his game vs Zero. Honestly, the only thing questionable about Bisu's play is his games vs Stork. By what logic? Bisu has historically never had a strong PvT. He has never demonstrated consistent dominance in the matchup. Bisu has never won a PvT individual league finals. Hence, his default position going into this month is one of questionable skill. The two losses in Winners' League do not negate that trend. Bisu needs to demonstrate a month of dominance in PvT before that claim can be changed. Flash, on the other hand, is 3-1 in Bo5 Finals versus Jaedong, and has a 69.8% winrate in TvZ versus Bisu's 61% winrate in PvT. Hence his TvZ position going into the month is one of unquestioned dominance. To prove that point: if you had to bet on a terran to win against any zerg, which terran would you pick? The vast majority of Starcraft watchers would pick Flash (with a section picking Light, but only a small section). But if you had to pick a protoss to win against any terran, would the vast majority pick Bisu? Hell, more people would pick Stork or Snow in that situation. Flash's loss against Zero doesn't negate that dominance. Does that logic make sense to you? Most PvT losses are BO losses anyhow--the matchup is the single one least susceptible to multitask/mechanics and most susceptible to game sense and management. Look at the recent Fantasy vs Stork series. Did Fanta win through superior multitask? Hell naw, he was fighting single-front battles with less than 36 units for most of the game time. By that logic it's well acknowledged on TL that Bisu has the best multitask of any P but only mediocre game sense. Hence his BO loss in PvT can strengthen that claim. And it's not like when he gets advantageous BOs he wins either. Look at his game versus Flash. Bisu was in a position where he could expand once to 5 bases, play it safe, and seal the deal on Icarus. Instead, Bisu decides to triple expand to seven bases, knowing full well that he is playing someone with OoV/Savior-caliber game sense and timings, and who plays Terran, the race that can catch you expanding without ever leaving their base by pressing "0" and "s". Trying to excuse that sort of mistake is like blaming the campus slut for having STDs after you decided to ride bareback. I suggest you look up his PvT record during 2009. His only significant loss was to 1) the semi-finals of the Batoo OSL against Fantasy, who is the 2nd best TvPer to have ever existed, and an excellent player when it comes to preparation. He later avenged himself in the Avalon MSL by going 2-0 against Fantasy. 2) Iris, where Bisu threw away his advantage in game 5 during the quarter-finals of the Avalon MSL. 1) How do you define significant? 2) Look at his 2010 record 3) "Never" may be too strong of a word here. How about "for the past 16 months". Remember Bisu losing 5 straight PvTs to people like Firebathero and shortly thereafter crashing out of the OSL to go.go in a Bo3? Dropping random games to scrubs is acceptable. Dropping a Bo3 to a game-fixer with one of the worst TvPs in history, while letting his opponent get away with a 1 rax double expand--that's just sad. 4) Have you ever seen a Bisu PvT where he demonstrates excellent game sense? #1: Significant as in costing him a chance at a Starleague. Also significant as in they were Bo5s, which many consider 'the real test of skill'. #2: +60% winrate is extraordinary in the world of Progaming. Hell, even holding +50% over a modest sample, say 50 games, is enough to get you on the A-team in most cases. #3: my hypothesis that Bisu is so bad at PvT BoX formats is because he practices a lot against Fantasy, who is known for doing 'weird' stuff. In order to deflect weird stuff, people usually play safe/standard (i.e. Gate->Obs->Expand); which is why Bisu gets predictable and ends up losing to players who 'study' him. #4: Yes, on Destination, in any match-up. Bisu + Destination = auto-win. In particular, I remember Bisu vs. Flash and Bisu vs. Leta. Lol, I just looked it up, only Skyhigh has a better record on that map. I almost forgot Skyhigh was once a promising rookie. Edit: If you haven't seen it, I HIGHLY recommend the Bisu vs. Leta one. Mind games at it's finest, but very different from the Stork vs. Flash mind games yesterday. Don't forget, we're not arguing whether his PvT is "good"; we're arguing whether we can doubt it. Something can be "good" and questionable at the same time. In order for it to not have doubt, it has be dominant, something on the order of Flash's TvZ, for example. 1) What about proleague losses? Also, he dropped prelims games to go.go that contributed to his being relegated to offline prelims for a while... 2) What is Bisu's 2010 winrate? 3) What about dropping 5 straight PvTs in WL? And look at his PvT ELO--he can't beat strong TvPers. Bisu isn't the favorite against any strong TvP sniper--Hiya, Flash, Really, Fantasy. 4) Lol? As a sidenote, remember his game against a KT zerg on Desti that ended up lurk-containing him to 4 bases, and then Bisu slowly committed seppuku into a lurker field over and over and over again? Also, Desti isn't in the map pool any more. What we're trying to figure out is whether Bisu's TvP, as of NOW, TODAY, etc, is as dominant as Flash's TvZ. And the answer is no.
You are going completely off on tangents now. Your initial argument was that Bisu has never had good PvT, as illustrated here:
"By what logic?
Bisu has historically never had a strong PvT. He has never demonstrated consistent dominance in the matchup. "
My counterargument (which I proved) is that he has had good PvT for most of his career, just not the best. That's the ONLY thing my discussion with you is about; I'm not comparing Flash to Bisu at all.
Btw, his PvT winrate in 2010 was 62.50%. In other words, exceptionally good, just not Stork or Best good.
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This is a silly semantics spat.
Bisu's PvT is really good but not immortal. Everyone agrees. What exactly is there to argue about?
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I just looked up the stats, Zerg is 30% vs terran and 40% vs protoss in WL, that really really sucks. This means, statisticly, that for a given tvx, the opponent has the chances of a s-class player against a normal player. In the same time, zerg is just owning everything in MSL.
Is that because it is harder and harder to pick balanced maps? Or is the WL format harder for zerg compared to other races? It's not great from a spectator's point of view :/
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On February 19 2011 00:37 Tianx wrote:
This is a silly semantics spat.
Bisu's PvT is really good but not immortal. Everyone agrees. What exactly is there to argue about?
Apparently people are quibbling over what it means to be "questionable."
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On February 19 2011 02:00 Elroi wrote:
I just looked up the stats, Zerg is 30% vs terran and 40% vs protoss in WL, that really really sucks. This means, statisticly, that for a given tvx, the opponent has the chances of a s-class player against a normal player. In the same time, zerg is just owning everything in MSL.
Is that because it is harder and harder to pick balanced maps? Or is the WL format harder for zerg compared to other races? It's not great from a spectator's point of view :/
I think it's because of WL's format. Look... we all know that in WL, the more games you win the more games you play, right?
Just as an example, so far Protoss players have played:
66 games vs Zerg (39-27, 59.1%)
61 games vs Terran (33-28, 54.1%)
If we look at just Bisu and Stork in PvT/Z, we see a combined total of 25 games with only 4 losses. If you factor them out of the picture, Protoss is:
26-25 vs Zerg (51%)
25-26 vs Terran (49%)
This obviously is NOT a mathematically justifiable approach to looking at "racial balance," but there's a point to be made here.
There are exactly 3 players who are +10 or higher. These are the players who potentially can single-handedly alter the "balance." Stork 13-3, Flash 18-2, Bisu 20-4. In the case of Flash, many of those games were against his own race (11-0 in TvT), so they don't change the picture so very much.
In comparison, Zerg's perennial powerhouse is Jaedong, who is only 9-4. And the other higher performer among Zerg is Hydra, who is 11-5. So Zerg's top players have had less of an influence over the racial stats than Protoss's.
The only balance figure that I actually do find a concern is the TvZ balance. If you look at the players who are +2, +3, +4, or +5, all of them have a winning record against Zerg. Most of them are Terran. 3 are Protoss, 2 are Zerg (counting Jaedong).
Basically, the bottom line is that Protoss "dominance" boils down to the dominance of two superstars, with a small handful of other strong performers. Terran dominance comes from a legion of players who are slightly positive (I'm not counting Flash here because he's 1-1 vs Zerg), and especially strong against Zerg opponents.
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Look at the stats in the regular PL, pretty much perfect balance. No need to be all worried.
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lol.. thanks Mortality, you're like a living Starcraft database. 
On February 19 2011 04:16 Holgerius wrote:
Look at the stats in the regular PL, pretty much perfect balance. No need to be all worried.
It wasn't really race imbalance I was aiming for, more like race imbalance on specific maps, or maybe some inherent imablance in WL-format.
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On February 19 2011 04:22 Elroi wrote:lol.. thanks Mortality, you're like a living Starcraft database. Show nested quote +On February 19 2011 04:16 Holgerius wrote:
Look at the stats in the regular PL, pretty much perfect balance. No need to be all worried. It wasn't really race imbalance I was aiming for, more like race imbalance on specific maps, or maybe some inherent imablance in WL-format.
Well, Progamers all agree that Terran tend to be the strongest/most important race for a team in the winners league (mentioned in a lot of interviews). Exactly why that's so is beyond me perhaps a warmed up Terran has a respectively easier time beating whatever opponent he faces with micro or such. But i digress, map and race balance is about the best I have ever seen so I'm really happy.
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On February 19 2011 04:16 Holgerius wrote:
Look at the stats in the regular PL, pretty much perfect balance. No need to be all worried.
For the record, right now the numbers I've got for the whole season say:
PvT 87-81 (52%)
TvZ 84-62 (56%)
ZvP 84-89 (48%)
From what I've tracked, these percentages have been pretty constant for the entire season so far. The major change has been PvT, which started off a little more heavily P>T and has since adjusted; and TvZ, which has been getting steadily, if only a tiny bit at a time, worse for Zerg.
PvZ looks weird but Bisu + Stork are 29-4 against Zerg, and while I don't think you can just take that out and reveal "actual balance" (you get 80-60 or essentially the same ~55% figure for ZvP as TvZ is at - in other words it would flip the apparent balance) it has to be considered a little bit. For what it's worth, TB are 14-3 against Terran - pulling this out does almost equally odd things to the PvT numbers.
TvZ may or may not have these big balancers. Flash is Flash, but "only" at 9-1. Light and TurN (17-4 between them; 26-5 with Flash) have the only other significantly T>>>Z records at the moment. Three players carries slightly more weight than two, but if we axe these three we get: 58-57 (50.04%) which is close enough for me even though it does indicate a Terran favor in the matchup overall.
In fact, that worries me most: T>Z has been a fact of life for most of BW, but it seems pronounced right now and I'm not sure whether it's maps, copying Flash, or both.
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I don't think it's just Flash, but I definitely don't think it's the maps either. A number of factors have come together.
Really, if you look at Terran history, we had a number of major leaders come at ones and all be dominant virtually at the same time. Boxer -> NaDa -> Oov isn't just a 1-2-3 punch. If you look at what was happening in the months leading up to Savior's trouncing of Oov, you had all 3 of these guys at like 70+% wins in TvZ. Not to mention Midas who was supposed to be the next big thing.
To be clear, Boxer, NaDa and Oov did so much for this game that it's unimaginable to think of what it would be without them. But the dominance of an entire race has always, always, always been a product of multiple factors.
What we've seen was this: a return of the viability of mech (several people played key roles here, including Flash, but Upmagic before him and some others too), the introduction of midgame bionic -> mech transfer (thanks to Midas), experimentation with bio+mech to deal with initial mutas (think that was Upmagic), experimentation with bio+valkyrie (Fantasy), experimentation with wraiths (Leta), as well as improvements on attack timings (ForGG, Flash, and I'd like to say Light too, and some others to be sure). This isn't even counting influences that guys like Iris, Hwasin, and NaDa were putting on TvZ back in 2007-early 2008.
A lot of factors have come together. Mech is nothing new. Wraiths are nothing new. But there were some delicate issues with them that prevented them from being mainstream, obstacles that had to be overcome. Bio+mech and bio+valk didn't really catch on (but make no mistake, those experiments certainly added depth back to Terran: even a "failed" experiment can teach you a lot if you are willing to learn, and I wouldn't consider either of these experiments "failures"). Bio to mech is looking like the next big step that could push the balance further in the Terran direction.
Flash has certainly been a leader in putting these pieces together, but a lot of credit has to go to players other than Flash for figuring these things out.
ZvT had become so powerful because only in the post-Savior world, after other Zergs had learned to play "modern" Starcraft, could the full potential of mutalisk stacking and defiler management be realized.
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On February 19 2011 08:24 Musoeun wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2011 04:16 Holgerius wrote:
Look at the stats in the regular PL, pretty much perfect balance. No need to be all worried. For the record, right now the numbers I've got for the whole season say: PvT 87-81 (52%) TvZ 84-62 (56%) ZvP 84-89 (44%)
Your ZvP percent looks a bit off there.
I hope zergs will get their maps sooner or later. Teams like Oz and Woongjin are really suffering, sporting zerg aces and currently residing at the 2nd and 3rd to the last. As much as I like to go, lol KT and SKT zergs, they've been largely unnecessary right now, especially in winner's format.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
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SWL resumes tomorrow am I right?
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On February 19 2011 19:07 flamewheel wrote:
That Hydra.
Hydra achieved what no one could in January: he had very good results both in individual leagues and proleague. If it was January 31st I think he would deserve the number one spot.
Of course Flash is having another great month, so the bar is a little higher this time. Hopefully they'll play each other in PL.
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On February 19 2011 23:39 hypercube wrote:Hydra achieved what no one could in January: he had very good results both in individual leagues and proleague. If it was January 31st I think he would deserve the number one spot. Of course Flash is having another great month, so the bar is a little higher this time. Hopefully they'll play each other in PL.
Yeah, if Hydra beats Flash on Tuesday he's a guaranteed nr 1, even if he loses Flash will have to perform outstandingly to keep nr 1.
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Flamewheel, I'm sorry for your ranking predicament every month, but I like the fact that you doing PR makes a lot of stuff change. It's not 100% Flash/Jaedong anymore.
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EPT
