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FataLe
New Zealand4553 Posts
On August 23 2011 10:15 Active.815 wrote: Nada's gonna roll huk hardddddd even before 1-1-1, i've seen huk lose HARD to nada on his stream... not happening, ever. Especially since huk has to deal with his ultimate rival in the same house >:C Whose HuK's greatest rival? | ||
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DrShaiHulud
United States14 Posts
Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory. | ||
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TheRealNanMan
United States1471 Posts
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GTPGlitch
5061 Posts
Idra ^^' | ||
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ins(out)side
220 Posts
I offered up some fruit and money to my Puzzle shrine so I think his holiness will bless all Protoss with an awesome way of stuffing the 1-1-1. Kind of like the way he did against asdfOu in the GSTL. | ||
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Sajaki
Canada1135 Posts
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Luepert
United States1934 Posts
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IronSlayer
Canada30 Posts
I voted for HuK, even though there is a good chance that he will not win. But whenever I see a foreigner in GSL, it's an auto-vote. I can't help it, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this regard.  | ||
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RHMVNovus
United States738 Posts
On August 23 2011 11:33 DrShaiHulud wrote: Re: Bomber vs Keen Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory. Yes. This. These 1:1 payout polls don't gauge the community's collective certainty of victory. All it gauges is the per-cent of the community that is more than 50% certain that Bomber will win the match. Which is apparently 96.5% of people in the community. 96.5 per-cent of people believing Bomber has a superior TvT to Keen isn't insane. Given that Bomber's amazing at capitalizing on mistakes, and Still, an interesting, unique write-up. I like it. TOTOs are really useful for judging to community's collective certainty. Well, the Korean community. Still, incomplete info is better than no info. Good job. | ||
Waxangel
United States33650 Posts
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windsupernova
Mexico5280 Posts
Hahaha, so true. I still remember how shocked some people were at all the BFH usage in TvT especially at MLG when anyone watching GSL mech was nothing too new on TvT. | ||
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Steamboatlol
United States161 Posts
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RaiKageRyu
Canada4773 Posts
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SxYSpAz
United States1451 Posts
anyways, gogo Nestea! and i hope puzzle wins but i can't imagine it happening glgl | ||
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Jugan
United States1566 Posts
On August 23 2011 06:08 SafeAsCheese wrote: I can't believe so many people are voting NesTea to beat MVP Did they not watch him barely pass his Ro32 matches? Look up the last player to beat  Flash in the grand finals of a proleague, and the story of how his opponent got there. | ||
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MrMotionPicture
United States4327 Posts
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Ghostface_Killa
United States168 Posts
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CatNzHat
United States1599 Posts
With the new mech in TvT (which is 90% of what happens on the korean server, both players mech). I would expect MMA to win, whilst polt does deserve a good 30% chance, I still don't see it happening in a best of 3 | ||
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rysecake
United States2632 Posts
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fraktoasters
United States617 Posts
On August 23 2011 11:33 DrShaiHulud wrote: Re: Bomber vs Keen Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory. Yeah people really don't understand these polls. It's not people think Nestea has a 70% chance of winning. It's 70% of people think Nestea has > 50% of winning. If people got to vote on Nestea's chances I would bet the majority of the votes would hover round 50-55%. | ||
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