On August 23 2011 10:15 Active.815 wrote:
Nada's gonna roll huk hardddddd

even before 1-1-1, i've seen huk lose HARD to nada on his stream... not happening, ever.

Especially since huk has to deal with his ultimate rival in the same house >:C

Whose HuK's greatest rival?

DrShaiHulud

United States14 Posts

August 23 2011 02:33 GMT

#142

Re: Bomber vs Keen
Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory.

TheRealNanMan

United States1471 Posts

August 23 2011 02:34 GMT

#143

This is so awesome! I hope there will be more post like this in the future! It'll be very interesting to see how this week turns out though!

GTPGlitch

5061 Posts

August 23 2011 02:36 GMT

#144

On August 23 2011 11:29 FataLe wrote:

Show nested quote +

Whose HuK's greatest rival?

Idra ^^'

ins(out)side

220 Posts

August 23 2011 02:42 GMT

#145

Puzzle is total G status! I think Gomtv and TL are correct sir!

I offered up some fruit and money to my Puzzle shrine so I think his holiness will bless all Protoss with an awesome way of stuffing the 1-1-1. Kind of like the way he did against asdfOu in the GSTL.

Sajaki

Canada1135 Posts

August 23 2011 02:44 GMT

#146

The hongun vs July poll is funny ^^

Luepert

United States1934 Posts

August 23 2011 02:58 GMT

#147

umm this just goes to show how dumb us foreigner are, were the extreme in almost every poll. HuK, MMA, Nestea, July, really guys? Really?

IronSlayer

Canada30 Posts

August 23 2011 03:08 GMT

#148

I really liked getting to see the breakdown of the 3 big polls. It'll be exciting to see who's right! =D

I voted for HuK, even though there is a good chance that he will not win. But whenever I see a foreigner in GSL, it's an auto-vote. I can't help it, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this regard.

RHMVNovus

United States738 Posts

August 23 2011 03:13 GMT

#149

On August 23 2011 11:33 DrShaiHulud wrote:
Re: Bomber vs Keen
Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory.

Yes. This. These 1:1 payout polls don't gauge the community's collective certainty of victory. All it gauges is the per-cent of the community that is more than 50% certain that Bomber will win the match. Which is apparently 96.5% of people in the community. 96.5 per-cent of people believing Bomber has a superior TvT to Keen isn't insane. Given that Bomber's amazing at capitalizing on mistakes, and ~~Elly the ESPORTS Elephant~~ Giovanni the GSL Grizzly reminds us of how many mistakes are made... it's a lot less 'WTF' than it's being made out to be.

Still, an interesting, unique write-up. I like it. TOTOs are really useful for judging to community's collective certainty. Well, the Korean community. Still, incomplete info is better than no info.

Good job.

Waxangel

United States33608 Posts

August 23 2011 03:29 GMT

#150

I'm more concerned that Bomber has 75% of toto bets, and it took until the line reached like -400 for him for votes to start evening out.... -400 is like, bonjwa line :/

windsupernova

Mexico5280 Posts

August 23 2011 03:33 GMT

#151

'Sigh, 80% of TL doesn't watch enough GSL. No wonder they thought blue-flame hellions were an innovation.'

Hahaha, so true. I still remember how shocked some people were at all the BFH usage in TvT especially at MLG when anyone watching GSL mech was nothing too new on TvT.

Steamboatlol

United States161 Posts

August 23 2011 03:51 GMT

#152

Wow, I know top is pretty good, but how could you vote against Zenio with the absolutely dominant TvZ he pulled off in groups stage. He had the safe patient "always have more stuff than your opponent" Nestea style with Losira like creep spread, if he keeps playing like that he's going far.

RaiKageRyu

Canada4773 Posts

August 23 2011 03:52 GMT

#153

Awww, no recap this week.

SxYSpAz

United States1451 Posts

August 23 2011 04:14 GMT

#154

the results should reflect how close the games are, but it makes me feel stupid for voting nestea... even though he does have the better chance, it's just not that significantly skewed in his favor.

anyways, gogo Nestea!

and i hope puzzle wins but i can't imagine it happening glgl

Jugan

United States1566 Posts

August 23 2011 04:17 GMT

#155

On August 23 2011 06:08 SafeAsCheese wrote:
I can't believe so many people are voting NesTea to beat MVP

Did they not watch him barely pass his Ro32 matches?

Look up the last player to beat (T)

Flash in the grand finals of a proleague, and the story of how his opponent got there.

MrMotionPicture

United States4327 Posts

August 23 2011 04:17 GMT

#156

Yeah, HongUn is really good. I am pretty sure he can beat July.

Ghostface_Killa

United States168 Posts

August 23 2011 04:28 GMT

#157

I much prefer this format over the old one. The old one was too self-serving.

CatNzHat

United States1599 Posts

August 23 2011 04:33 GMT

#158

Regarding people thinking that Polt was the better player back when he won the supertournament, he wasn't, he pulled out some cheesey metagame bullshit builds that will never work on anyone ever again, so don't expect anything to have changed, aside from MMA studying the replays and figuring out exactly how to make his builds cheeseproof.

With the new mech in TvT (which is 90% of what happens on the korean server, both players mech). I would expect MMA to win, whilst polt does deserve a good 30% chance, I still don't see it happening in a best of 3

rysecake

United States2632 Posts

August 23 2011 04:48 GMT

#159

lol @ 71% in favor of nestea. Above average zvt vs godly tvz. Not to mention a 1-6 record vs mvp. But yea..71% in favor of nestea for sure.

fraktoasters

United States617 Posts

August 23 2011 04:57 GMT

#160

Yeah people really don't understand these polls. It's not people think Nestea has a 70% chance of winning. It's 70% of people think Nestea has > 50% of winning. If people got to vote on Nestea's chances I would bet the majority of the votes would hover round 50-55%.