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crate
United States2474 Posts
If you guys think I'm shady, go for it; knock me off. I have nothing to hide. I voted for RaXor because of a hunch like I said. If you guys don't agree with me, okay. I don't have a case against him right now other than saying it's a hunch. I can't explain why but I think the clue I linked to him is as strong as the clues linked to Jayme (it's the kind of clue I'd have come up with, at any rate) and Jayme's behavior did not make me suspicious while Raxor's did. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
On May 22 2009 05:01 crate wrote: I still have more to post later and there are still two obvious post subjects that will be covered by the end of day 2, by me if no one else steps up. This is what I mean. Stop holding out, if it could sway our decision the right way, then tell us now. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
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crate
United States2474 Posts
The two posts I am talking about are just facts (as in, it does not matter one whit who makes the post except for who posts the first analysis). I want to see if anyone else thinks looking over these two things is important. If no one else does, I will do it myself and post the results for the town. Telling the town what those posts are doesn't really matter since it's just a matter of collecting facts. I cannot post the results yet because I have not done the research yet that I would need to do to write the posts. In other words, I'm asking the town: what facts do we have that we should be examining but are not? Clear enough for you? | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
Just throwing that out there because I won't be able to post for the next 6 hours at least, even though it's primetime. Also, I fully support dlynch now, so please go ahead and vote for that (admittedly I didn't even click on the voting thread yet so if you're already doing that, good job -- I know some are.) | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
Foolishness: He called out Shikyo on day 1. Let's examine this action for a minute. Shikyo had a runaway lead at the time, and his platform was the most grounded in ideas applicable to this game at the time. There are two scenarios here: 1. Foolishness is mafia 2. Foolishness is not mafia Let's assume the first is true. Then Foolishness's "campaign" is really stupid. The timing is terrible since there was zero chance of Shikyo getting lynched that day (even if I were elected Mayor and Shikyo not elected there is zero chance I'd have picked to lynch Shikyo at the time; if he doesn't flip red--and while I'm suspicious of him, I by no means am certain he's mafia--then the lynch is rightfully denounced as abysmally stupid) so all Foolishness is doing is setting himself up for scrutiny. Foolishness had a low profile and he's calling out the highest-profile player at the time in Shikyo. The timing is the capper for me. My bet is Foolishness is townie. Putting yourself in suspicion so early doesn't fit with being red or blue imo. (The other possibility is this is a ploy by a Mafia to make us think he's towny. I think this is less likely, but you can make your own conclusions). iLoveKTF: He ran for Mayor/Sheriff before the vast majority of people even opened the thread. He does have some experience in other mafia games and his platform was just as good as Jimtudor's. He didn't get a single vote. Running for the election makes you suspicious, regardless of the claim that you didn't read your role PM before announcing your candidacy. There are three possibilities I see here. The most likely is he's not mafia so he didn't get any mafia support and the town didn't buy into his campaign either. Number two is he's the only mafia candidate who ran. Extremely unlikely in my mind--Jimtudor got some support, and iLoveKTF has acted no more suspicious than Jimmy did. Getting some support from fellow mafia members makes sense to me in this case, and he can elaborate on his platform after being called on its emptiness anyway. Final case is that iLoveKTF is mafia and Shikyo or JeeJee (or, worst case, both) is mafia. This seems unlikely to me, having two mafia candidates running, but it would explain why iLoveKTF got zero votes despite having a mafia bloc behind him--the mafia had a better candidate to support. Also seems unlikely that both iLoveKTF and Shikyo are mafia given this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93562¤tpage=16#319 (why start casting suspicion on fellow mafia Shikyo for that reason?). I'm thinking he's town aligned. I can't say whether green or blue though. Third would be Koopie, as I've already explained, but I'm actually more confident in the other two being town-aligned than her. No idea on her specific role either. Well and of course we know Jimmy and softer were on our side too but a bit late for that now.... | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
1. He is inactive due to finals (or claims to be), only possibly skims the thread ... points out clues that we have already seen and discounted, no new clue analysis 2. He says he is almost 100% sure either Jimtudor or JeeJee is mafia. This doesn't sit right with me since I've seen nothing from either of them apart from just running for office. Then again, the timing is stupid for a mafia accusation. 3. Ra.Xor.2 wrote: Role checks cannot be done night 1, and if Tudor is elected, we can no longer role check him. The same goes for JeeJee. However, if we are able to lynch one of his voters and he flips red, i think lynching him would be a smart move. Again, this can also be applied if JeeJee wins the election. This is really stupid and he got called on it right away. 4. The clue I linked to the book in his profile, like I said. My reasons for voting to lynch him: 1. I don't want Jayme to be lynched with no competition so I threw another suspicious name out there right away to make people think. If we just all agree to lynch Jayme we get no information from the day, which is bad in the long term regardless of Jayme's alignment. 2. Raxor hasn't contributed much so far and is maybe trying to hide in the not-quite-inactives; his clue analysis has been repeating stuff others have said (either trying to make himself look useful, trying to make the town focus on something wrong, or just not reading the thread) so even if he does flip towny we don't lose much. 3. Jayme's defense didn't ring alarm bells in my head, though I'm certainly not convinced that Jayme is a bad lynch choice. 4. I want to hear Raxor's defense so I can get a better handle on him: is he just not reading the thread or is he really red? | ||
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
On May 22 2009 06:15 crate wrote: And I guess I will also lay out my suspicions for Ra.Xor.2 1. He is inactive due to finals (or claims to be), only possibly skims the thread ... points out clues that we have already seen and discounted, no new clue analysis 2. He says he is almost 100% sure either Jimtudor or JeeJee is mafia. This doesn't sit right with me since I've seen nothing from either of them apart from just running for office. Then again, the timing is stupid for a mafia accusation. 3. This is really stupid and he got called on it right away. 4. The clue I linked to the book in his profile, like I said. My reasons for voting to lynch him: 1. I don't want Jayme to be lynched with no competition so I threw another suspicious name out there right away to make people think. If we just all agree to lynch Jayme we get no information from the day, which is bad in the long term regardless of Jayme's alignment. 2. Raxor hasn't contributed much so far and is maybe trying to hide in the not-quite-inactives; his clue analysis has been repeating stuff others have said (either trying to make himself look useful, trying to make the town focus on something wrong, or just not reading the thread) so even if he does flip towny we don't lose much. 3. Jayme's defense didn't ring alarm bells in my head, though I'm certainly not convinced that Jayme is a bad lynch choice. 4. I want to hear Raxor's defense so I can get a better handle on him: is he just not reading the thread or is he really red? Fair enough. I know I've seized a bit of a gung-ho take the lead role, but I just want to see this town not fall for foolish things. I know bandwagoning is bad, but I think a blind vote with no justification is just as bad. | ||
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
Anyways, I do agree Ra.Xor.2 is a bit suspicious as well, but he didn't set off the alarms that Jayme set off. Hell I rank Clazziquai a higher threat than Ra.Xor.2 as well as a few others, so I was completely shocked to see this come up in a vote with no mention of it. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
I haven't read up on past games to see how people in this game tended; there simply aren't enough of us who have played in other games here on TL to make that time worthwhile imo. If that's your reasoning for clazzi, then that's why I don't share it. Though I do think that just coming in and asking for a summary is not very helpful. | ||
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crate
United States2474 Posts
vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: I know I've seized a bit of a gung-ho take the lead role, but I just want to see this town not fall for foolish things. You and me both. | ||
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Koopie
United States13 Posts
First, you changed your vote two times. You went from Jimtudor, to Abstain, to zeks. Then you were against voting inactives and you suddenly changed your mind when Shikyo asked you about it. Then you were all for voting against clazzi, who has some very minor clue analysis pointed out. Although clazzi has been posting more outside of this thread than actually in it. I would be alright with this if you were for voting a more likely inactive player, like Jayme. This just seems like a shot in the dark for me that doesn't make too much sense when stacked upon other options. A quote from you: "Fair enough. I know I've seized a bit of a gung-ho take the lead role, but I just want to see this town not fall for foolish things. I know bandwagoning is bad, but I think a blind vote with no justification is just as bad." And now you ARE for voting Jayme... which seems to be the bandwagon vote. Okay. Although I definitely agree with lynching Jayme, it just seems odd that you're bouncing around everywhere. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
I'm not saying that Jayme is innocent. I'm just saying that maybe you shouldn't bandwagon for him so pointlessly, and maybe think about it for a while. The clues aren't as strong as they seem. That being said, his behavior admittably has been relatively suspicious. Although I still have a bad feeling about all this bandwagoning. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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Koopie
United States13 Posts
On May 22 2009 07:37 Foolishness wrote: Analyzing me is quite pointless, we should be focused on killing Shikyo. It's still apparent that he is mafia. There's still suspicious activity going on with him and we should be very careful of his actions. I'm all up for killing Jayme and possibly double lynch, but I still think Shikyo's the one we should be focused on. I definitely agree with this. Actually, I have been. Which everyone should already know. | ||
l10f
United States3241 Posts
On May 22 2009 04:11 crate wrote: Well good afternoon folks, I'm ready to post some stuff. I'll start with a big group of MSN logs. Koopie is green, and this is why I think so. First one quick comment though: Disagree strongly on the DT. DTs want to stay behind the scenes and find a mouth. Best leaders are the Vet or a regular green towny, since they have no special powers that make the mafia want to kill them anyway. Here's the MSN logs: + Show Spoiler + I think this was on the second 24 hours of day 1 [22:54] Koops: *Poke* [22:54] *** Auto-response sent to Koops: I am currently away from the computer. [22:54] crate: hi [22:55] Koops: Hey. =P [22:55] Koops: I think I suck at the Mafia games, but I'm trying. >_>; [22:55] crate: dont worry, i've pinned a number of players who are clearly bad [22:55] crate: lol [22:55] Koops: Lmao [22:56] crate: i'm going back through the topic right now [22:56] crate: havent gotten to your new posts yet [22:56] Koops: ._. [22:57] Koops: And if you want to play Brawl, I think Alex and my friend Adam want to play, too. [22:58] crate: give me a little bit to finish up the mafia thread [22:58] crate: then ok [22:58] Koops: Mmk [23:00] crate: fyi, my pick for surest town-aligned player right now is iLoveKTF [23:00] Koops: Hey, me too. [23:00] Koops: I'm pretty sure everyone else, too. [23:01] Koops: My latest post is stupid and I regret, but whatever. [23:01] crate: mm, doesnt do much but add confusion imo [23:01] crate: not good [23:01] Koops: Mmhm. [23:02] Koops: Then again I haven't posted too much, so it's not like it would be hard to redeem myself. [23:02] Koops: If I would even need to. [23:02] crate: that post is the sort of post i've been noticing to pin players as bad [23:02] crate: ;p [23:02] Koops: Yes. -_-; [23:03] crate: we'll have more to go on next day [23:03] crate: i'm anticipating a quiet night [23:03] Koops: Day 2 will be more fun. [23:03] Koops: Like I said I hate Day 1. [23:03] crate: day 2 is when we really get to see how players lean --- This was yesterday: I snipped a bit of this because we talk about Brawl a lot since we were playing during part of this. [16:44] Koops: At least the town wants to protect you. [16:45] crate: so i can bounce ideas off of you [16:45] Koops: Yeah, you could. [16:45] crate: well [16:45] crate: here's my guess [16:45] crate: one of the first three candidates for the election is mafia or none of them are [16:46] crate: jeejee's timing seems too late to me for the mafia [16:46] Koops: I think Shikyo is mafia. [16:46] crate: ilovektf is clearly not mafia since he got ZERO support [16:46] Koops: Um, yeah. [16:46] crate: and shikyo has been posting lots and lots of fluff [16:46] crate: so yeah [16:46] Koops: Yep. [16:46] crate: i have him down as the most likely red too [16:46] Koops: And he was bandwagoned from the start.. [16:46] Koops: And then people changed. [16:46] Koops: Just seems like he's mafia. [16:47] crate: he's said extremely little considering the number of words he's posted [16:47] Koops: I know! [16:49] Koops: Well, fun. I figured you out. [16:49] crate: right conclusion, wrong reason [16:50] crate: lmao [16:50] Koops: Rofl. [16:55] Koops: I don't want Jimtudor protected. :| [16:55] crate: if i were mafia there is no way i'd hit him right now [16:55] Koops: I know... [16:55] Koops: It's stupid. [16:56] crate: i think most of the mafia is hiding in the >half of the players who havent said anything constructive [16:56] Koops: Well, definitely. [16:56] crate: its too easy [16:56] Koops: It's the easiest. [16:57] Koops: It blends them into a really big crowd. [16:57] Koops: That's the best possible situation. [16:57] crate: mhm [16:57] Koops: Now, if everyone were active... It would be stupid. [16:57] Koops: But that's not the case. [16:58] Koops: Yeah, he would... [16:59] Koops: Also if I was mafia, I'm sure my clues would be pretty simple to read. ;P [17:00] crate: i do not envy pyr, trying to make up clues for so many players who probably have no profile and so few posts [17:00] Koops: Yeah. [17:00] Koops: I edited my profile because of that. [17:00] crate: heh [17:00] Koops: I even put a picture in there. ;-; [17:00] crate: i see [17:00] Koops: Not of me, but yes. Lol. [17:00] crate: btw i think it's interesting how much more town-favored pyr's setup is than qatols [17:00] crate: same number of players but we have an extra vigi, medic [17:00] Koops: Yeah. [17:01] crate: same number of mafia [17:01] Koops: Honestly I want to see the town win, anyways. [17:01] crate: and sheriff is way more powerful than pardoner [17:01] Koops: Even though being on the mafia would be more exciting. [17:01] crate: my favorite role is townie [17:01] crate: actually [17:01] crate: favorite role would be veteran [17:01] crate: cause its SUPER townie [17:01] Koops: Haha. [17:02] Koops: Okay, again. If I was mafia I would not point out to you that I knew. :< [17:02] crate: i know [17:04] crate: i wonder how much the town really trusts shikyo [17:05] Koops: I know I don't. [17:05] crate: actually [17:05] crate: i guess my big thought is that being able to just look past who is posting is the best [17:06] crate: link the content to the player, not the player to the content, if you get what i mean [17:06] Koops: Yeah, I get it. [17:07] crate: and i do doubt i'm going to die tonight; i'm too obvious a target i think, and unless you're playing me really well, the mafia knows i havent really shown anything dangerous yet [17:07] Koops: Great I mispelled send in my post. [17:07] Koops: To end. [17:07] Koops: -_-; [17:07] crate: lol [17:07] Koops: crate I don't think anyone really suspects you. [17:07] Koops: But I'm sure people think you're with the town. [17:07] Koops: Just my thoughts. [17:08] crate: i have posted really nothing but facts, and a good plan is a good plan either way [17:08] Koops: Because mafia members should seem like part of the town, too. [17:08] crate: its easy to seem like part of our town [17:08] crate: dont say anything [17:08] crate: :p [17:08] Koops: =P [17:10] crate: while i'd be surprised if i die, i would be SHOCKED if you die [17:10] Koops: Yes. [17:10] crate: i really hope people dont roleclaim to shikyo [17:10] crate: or to jeejee for that matter [17:10] Koops: I KNOW. [17:11] Koops: Hopefully they look at them just the same as others. [17:11] Koops: To me they're even more suspcious. [17:11] crate: yeah [17:11] Koops: I can't type [17:11] Koops: -_-; [17:11] crate: anyone running is suspicious [17:11] Koops: Yeah. [17:11] Koops: That's what I had said before. [17:11] Koops: To silly Jimtudor. [17:11] Koops: ;_; [17:11] crate: i hope his clue analysis is as good as he claims [17:11] Koops: Who's the one that said they ran before they looked? [17:11] crate: ilovektf [17:12] crate: all the more reason to think he's not mafia, after the overwhelming show of support he got, lol [17:12] Koops: Yeah. [17:12] crate: he does have some name value; tbh his platform is comparable to jeejee but jeejee had better timing [17:13] Koops: I'd rather have ilovektf but I'd rather have JeeJee over Shikyo. So that's why I voted for him. [17:13] Koops: Wow... [17:13] Koops: I really can't type. [17:13] crate: foolishness must be town, since a mafia playing like that makes no sense [17:14] crate: the town as a whole likes shikyo [17:14] crate: so saying he's shifty at this point only makes you suspicious [17:14] Koops: :S [17:14] crate: hence no mafia would do it regardless of shikyo's alignment [17:14] crate: saying it publicly anyway [17:15] Koops: I'm just waiting for the nigt actions to be sent so we can move on. [17:15] Koops: night* [17:15] crate: heh yeah [17:15] crate: tomorrow it should get interesting [17:15] Koops: Yeah. [17:15] Koops: I really want to see who gets killed. >_>; [17:18] Koops: Aw... why do we have a big chunk of inactives? ._. [17:19] crate: new players who got townie and get bored, then mafia hide amongst them [17:19] Koops: I'd laugh if they were all mafia. [17:19] crate: i guess [17:19] Koops: Lmao. [17:19] crate: idk, i love being townie, like jeejee said [17:28] crate: oh btw now i understand that ":S" earlier; i hadnt read your post when you said it [17:28] Koops: Yes... [17:28] Koops: -_-; [17:28] Koops: It's okay, though. [17:29] Koops: Things can work in a lot of different ways if people at least begin to CONSIDER Shikyo. [17:29] crate: i think your biggest problem is the timing of that post [17:29] crate: you want to wait till day to say those things [17:29] Koops: That's true. [17:29] Koops: But if I was hit [17:29] crate: unless you have some reason to think you're going to die [17:30] Koops: It's kind of safe to say who could be mafia. [17:30] Koops: >_> [17:30] Koops: Also, it could just be me looking like I'm asking an honest question. [17:30] Koops: Who knows. [17:30] crate: you look more like a stupid townie than anything else so far to me [17:30] crate: >_> [17:30] Koops: Ahahaha. [17:31] crate: but not a really stupid townie [17:31] crate: i have a couple of those marked down [17:31] crate: they're really absurdly bad or dumb or something [17:31] Koops: I really just want to know why he put Jimtudor on the list, that's all. [17:31] Koops: There are more important people to the town. [17:32] crate: defend it like that if anyone questions your wording  [17:32] Koops: He doesn't really post, and if he does... [17:32] Koops: It sucks. [17:33] crate: i hope you are town aligned and can pick up on other roles like you sniped mine [18:16] Koops: I got Shikyo to add iloveKTF. [18:16] Koops: I am great. [18:17] Koops: Even though it doesn't mean that much. [18:17] Koops: Lmao. [18:17] crate: heh [18:17] Koops: Oh well, I just wanted to redeem my stupid. [18:17] Koops: .-. [18:17] crate: it's ok; you're not the only one who's made dumb posts [18:18] Koops: Yeah, I know. Take that as you will. She's playing badly for sure, but I think she's just being stupid and I hope she'll stop being stupid soon. (One note of emphasis: don't look at who is saying what when you're reading posts. Look at what's being said, see if it makes sense/contributes anything, THEN look at who wrote it. I said this above but I know half of you aren't going to read the whole convo.) Obviously this dovetails nicely into my suspicions. I'm going to call Shikyo out for his huge volume of words with little to nothing said in them. If you want to convince me you're not a mafia trying to play the town by hiding behind lots of fluff, start making real contributions instead of repeating things that were already said and agreeing with everyone. The mayor position doesn't strike me as a real benefit to the town anyway other than keeping the mayor behind BG protection, and let me tell you I am not convinced Shikyo is worth that BG protection. Regardless of your alignment I think your fluff isn't helping the town any. (After I wrote this I saw your most recent post. Definitely a step up if your targets happen to be good). Right now my dumb players list includes Raxor, Pawsome, The_Master, Koopie (well...), and l10f. Inactives: omG.[RaYnE], clazziquai, motbob, adriix33 (didn't vote, may get modkilled after day 2), SugiuraMidori (claimed quite some time ago he'd be inactive--driving from Tuscon, but that's too long ago, also in danger of modkill), Knutti, and epicdoom My guess is probably half the mafia is among those players. Some of the stupid players are probably just being stupid because they're not reading the whole thread or have no idea what to do or just don't actually think and re-read their posts before they click the button, but even in a newbie game that will only get you so far imo. fuck i'm tired of writing for a bit I'll follow this up in a bit but I need a break from writing for now start making posts with content people there are at least two couple obvious things that people should do to contribute. I'm not going to tell you what they are though since I want to know who is actually thinking in this game and who isn't, and I'm going to do one of them myself soon if no one else does I'm not suspecting you or anything, but why are you so quick to defend Koopie? If she is playing "stupidly" like you say, it wouldn't hurt the town even if she died. (I'm totally against your opinion that she's playing "stupidly") And, I don't think you are red, but I don't think you have the right to call people "stupid." I'm sure everyone here has the intelligence to play this game well, they are just lacking the experience. Therefore you shouldn't call them "stupid players." Well, now that I got that out of the way, I also agree on Jayme AND the double lynch. At this rate, we might not last too long and we need to use the double lynches. Also, the vigis can start acting now and help us as well, as well as DT's. Also about only 2 people dying, my bet is on that they hit a Veteran. Or a medic-protected person. However, since neither the veteran or the medic is role-claiming, it was probably an inactive person that the mafia targeted. Only two people dying is a definitely good results for us, but we better start to get those mafias very soon. | ||
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l10f
United States3241 Posts
On May 22 2009 07:30 Shikyo wrote: Actually, most of the "clues" for Jayme seem to be quite weak. Especially the so much talked about "crepiscular" one; Why would the clue about a killer be in that sentence? It makes no sense. Furthermore, the clues are mostly picked from all over the posts. That doesn't make much sense either. People have been linking all kinds of movement, creeping and dark things to that cat, although they could mean so many different things, and it makes no sense to have so many clues pointing at one player. And the python being an ambushing animal seems quite far-fetched. I'm not saying that Jayme is innocent. I'm just saying that maybe you shouldn't bandwagon for him so pointlessly, and maybe think about it for a while. The clues aren't as strong as they seem. That being said, his behavior admittably has been relatively suspicious. Although I still have a bad feeling about all this bandwagoning. Yes, I have a bad feeling about the bandwagoning too. On May 22 2009 08:01 Koopie wrote: I definitely agree with this. Actually, I have been. Which everyone should already know. Can you tell me why you think Shikyo is a mafia? | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
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