Pyrry's Mafia Game - GG - Page 20

zeks

Canada1068 Posts

May 21 2009 15:13 GMT

#381

On May 22 2009 00:01 teks wrote:

I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws:

1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real
2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well)
3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely..

Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this.

1) The DT would tell me my role.
2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then.
3) Up to you guys to decide.

There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

May 21 2009 15:48 GMT

#382

On May 21 2009 21:24 EsbenPM wrote:
Oh, and i don't think we decided on a final plan regarding confirming townies, but the best idea from my perspective is having a vigi linked to a kill, so we have a confirmed townie in him to rally arround i guess.

As for calling out hits it could help give an idea of who mafia is targetting, to help the medics for the next night.

there's no way for a vigi to get linked to a kill unless the vigi died. Or if the vigi was called on to kill someone at night and in the day that person got killed by the vigi. The problem with that is that the mafia could kill that person as well. So the only real way is if there is an 100% sure red, the vigi calls him out, asks for medic protection, and then kills the mafia member. but now you have a liability and he basically needs to be protected every night and he doesn't even have a real role anymore. The best people in roles of leadership are either a DT or a vet with a clean hit record (never hit yet).

teks

Norway263 Posts

May 21 2009 16:04 GMT

#383

On May 22 2009 00:13 zeks wrote:

Show nested quote +

Ahh I see. Thanks for clarifying

Guess you can forget about 1) and 2), number 3) is really only a subject because this is your idea, you know, it might be something a GF would do :p Statistically the chance that you are the GF is very, very low.
When you pitched this plan I thought you meant that you wanted to receive roleclaims from _everyone_, which - obviously - would be a disaster if you were to be mafia. Handing over a complete blue list :p Now, if you want to receive the DT's attention, be rolechecked by them so they can trust you and rely information via you, that would be OK by me. If the information would prove to be false, we all know who to get, right? ^^

I originally wanted to do this on day 3, but I'm not so sure it's a good idea to wait after all. Now that the plan is public you are going to be a prime target for the mafia the next night. While we could use someone else, you're putting yourself in a very risky position if you aren't placed in jail/protected by medics the next night - so if we are going to do this, it would probably be good to get as much out of it as possible before the mafia can do anything about it.

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

May 21 2009 16:23 GMT

#384

the problem with this plan is that zeks could be GF in which case by the time we found out that the information is false, we'd be in a deep hole right now. Remember that even if one mafia dies, the KP still stays the same so it's ok to sacrifice a mafia. That means there's a one day/night period where we're in the dark about EVERYTHING. That's 3 kills, a lynch and a potential GF as a mouthpiece.

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

May 21 2009 16:26 GMT

#385

as for the double lynch, we should vote for it. There's nothing wrong with having two lynches because it's more KP on our part. Like i outlined before with the numbers timeline, we have basically till day 6 to win or atleast we need to make it to day 6 pretty ahead to win and that means we should DL as soon as possible.

zeks

Canada1068 Posts

May 21 2009 16:30 GMT

#386

Yep I talked about the possibility of me being GF. That's why you guys have to analyze my behaviour and whether any clues have pointed to me to see whether I'm trustworthy enough up to this point.

I'm not in a hurry in getting this working. We're still in good shape though we lost a bodyguard but at least we don't need to suspect Jim no more, which narrows down the list of potential mafia in the candidates/medic list.

If someone can come up with a surefire plan for day 2, by all means tell us. I'm still not convinced of using the vigi plan for many reasons stated against it.

Shikyo

Finland33997 Posts

May 21 2009 17:24 GMT

#387

At least for now, I don't believe DTs should rolecheck zeks or roleclaim to him. The chance of him being the GF is high enough for the risk to not be worth it, at least for today, in my opinion.

vx70GTOJudgexv

United States3161 Posts

May 21 2009 17:40 GMT

#388

Should we be altering/reconstructing medic lists for tonight?

Shikyo

Finland33997 Posts

May 21 2009 17:43 GMT

#389

On May 22 2009 02:40 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
Should we be altering/reconstructing medic lists for tonight?

We probably should, although I don't think we need to worry about it too much quite yet, there's still plenty of the day left.

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

May 21 2009 17:46 GMT

#390

no one really besides me has made a case for double lynch. what do you think about it?

vx70GTOJudgexv

United States3161 Posts

May 21 2009 17:59 GMT

#391

On May 22 2009 02:46 chaoser wrote:
no one really besides me has made a case for double lynch. what do you think about it?

+ Show Spoiler [Earlier Argument] +

On May 21 2009 14:25 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
I'm for Jayme and I'm also for using the double lynch on Day 3. We have 2. They can be used on consecutive days. however, the math for this game's timetable turned out to be like, 5 days. We don't want to hold on to it too long, because even with only 2 out of 3 going down tonight, we didn't do anything yesterday to lessen mafia KP. We lost one blue and two greens so far, we need to start making good decisions and the first will be a double lynch tomorrow.

Like I said before, that's all I can add onto this. We have until Day 6 to pretty much win, and we don't want to just hold on to these things. They are there, we should use them. Granted we don't know what Day 3 will bring, but we have several leads and it's not like lynching Jayme would end all of them, so we should make progress tomorrow. We also have the two vigis who can now hit. My advice to them would be lay low tonight. We really don't have another solid lead, and there's no way to really safely "confirm" it, especially if the person doesn't flip red, and we're only sold on one doing that tonight so far.

I'm also with Shikyo that DTs should NOT rolecheck zeks tonight. There is too high of a GF risk at this moment in time.

Aside from that, let's just keep moving in on the Jayme lynch, we still have over 24 hours left on that.

BTW - I'm going to be semi-AFK this entire weekend until Monday. I'll have limited internet access at our hotel, but I'm not sure if it's wireless. If it is, I'll be able to post during "hawk" hours a lot, if not I'll be able to post once or twice each day and vote.

ydg

United States690 Posts

May 21 2009 18:01 GMT

#392

My bad about Koopie, was trying to see who could be flashy. But since he changed his profile, it can't be him so we need other suspects. Maybe SugiuraMidori because his profile picture is kinda flashy and has various colors? But that's kinda weak. Bwdero also has a sort of flashy picture, but no colors in this one. Maybe even epicdoom: "Epic doom is a style of doom metal that is characterized primarily by its vocal style; vocalists typically employ clean, operatic and choral singing. Lyrics and imagery are typically inspired by fantasy or mythology, while the drumming is performed in a bombastic fashion. However, distinguishing epic doom from traditional doom may be difficult. Examples of prominent epic doom bands include Candlemass, Solitude Aeturnus, Solstice and Doomsword."

Personally I think the clue isn't so much flashy as it is salesman, but maybe that's just a product of the mafia script.

Anyways, regarding double lynch, I think that if we do double lynch, we need to have more than one suspect. So far the only major suspect I can see is Jayme, and this means we're going to need some tough clue analysis tonight and tomorrow.

Also, people in danger of being modkilled:
sugiuramidori
adriix33

so hurry up and vote!

BWdero

Netherlands476 Posts

May 21 2009 18:06 GMT

#393

On May 22 2009 02:46 chaoser wrote:
no one really besides me has made a case for double lynch. what do you think about it?

I think we should go for it. The more lynches we have the faster we can confirm or deny our suspicions.

chaoser

United States5541 Posts

May 21 2009 18:09 GMT

#394

oh, and just to let everyone know, we're still voting in the Day1 Voting tread for day two, they just haven't updated it's title yet

Shikyo

Finland33997 Posts

May 21 2009 18:22 GMT

#395

I would like to present you with another suspect: motbob.

He basically only posted twice, asking for BWdero's profile picture and ran for Sheriff, and hasn't posted since. In his Sheriff post he promised high activity. Why isn't he being as active as he should be if he wasn't elected? Why did he abstain from voting?

That salesman clue indeed could refer to his quote "Join Teamliquid Whatpulse Team!", and I don't think it's as weak as you would think, because I don't see anything else in anyone else's profiles resembling anything like trying to get something sold. That's the only thing I could connect to him, though. He still seems suspicious, and might be worth considering for tomorrow.

vx70GTOJudgexv

United States3161 Posts

May 21 2009 19:08 GMT

#396

On May 22 2009 03:22 Shikyo wrote:
I would like to present you with another suspect: motbob.

He basically only posted twice, asking for BWdero's profile picture and ran for Sheriff, and hasn't posted since. In his Sheriff post he promised high activity. Why isn't he being as active as he should be if he wasn't elected? Why did he abstain from voting?

That salesman clue indeed could refer to his quote "Join Teamliquid Whatpulse Team!", and I don't think it's as weak as you would think, because I don't see anything else in anyone else's profiles resembling anything like trying to get something sold. That's the only thing I could connect to him, though. He still seems suspicious, and might be worth considering for tomorrow.

Good catch, I was wondering where he had gone. He seems to be bandwagoning as well in the votes today. Last time he just abstained wholly, which I found rather peculiar myself, but eh.

crate

United States2474 Posts

May 21 2009 19:11 GMT

#397

Well good afternoon folks, I'm ready to post some stuff.

I'll start with a big group of MSN logs. Koopie is green, and this is why I think so.

First one quick comment though:

chaoser wrote:
The best people in roles of leadership are either a DT or a vet with a clean hit record (never hit yet).

Disagree strongly on the DT. DTs want to stay behind the scenes and find a mouth. Best leaders are the Vet or a regular green towny, since they have no special powers that make the mafia want to kill them anyway.

Here's the MSN logs:

+ Show Spoiler +

I think this was on the second 24 hours of day 1
[22:54] Koops: *Poke*
[22:54] *** Auto-response sent to Koops: I am currently away from the computer.
[22:54] crate: hi
[22:55] Koops: Hey. =P
[22:55] Koops: I think I suck at the Mafia games, but I'm trying. >_>;
[22:55] crate: dont worry, i've pinned a number of players who are clearly bad
[22:55] crate: lol
[22:55] Koops: Lmao
[22:56] crate: i'm going back through the topic right now
[22:56] crate: havent gotten to your new posts yet
[22:56] Koops: ._.
[22:57] Koops: And if you want to play Brawl, I think Alex and my friend Adam want to play, too.
[22:58] crate: give me a little bit to finish up the mafia thread
[22:58] crate: then ok
[22:58] Koops: Mmk
[23:00] crate: fyi, my pick for surest town-aligned player right now is iLoveKTF
[23:00] Koops: Hey, me too.
[23:00] Koops: I'm pretty sure everyone else, too.
[23:01] Koops: My latest post is stupid and I regret, but whatever.
[23:01] crate: mm, doesnt do much but add confusion imo
[23:01] crate: not good
[23:01] Koops: Mmhm.
[23:02] Koops: Then again I haven't posted too much, so it's not like it would be hard to redeem myself.
[23:02] Koops: If I would even need to.
[23:02] crate: that post is the sort of post i've been noticing to pin players as bad
[23:02] crate: ;p
[23:02] Koops: Yes. -_-;
[23:03] crate: we'll have more to go on next day
[23:03] crate: i'm anticipating a quiet night
[23:03] Koops: Day 2 will be more fun.
[23:03] Koops: Like I said I hate Day 1.
[23:03] crate: day 2 is when we really get to see how players lean

---
This was yesterday:

I snipped a bit of this because we talk about Brawl a lot since we were playing during part of this.

[16:44] Koops: At least the town wants to protect you.
[16:45] crate: so i can bounce ideas off of you
[16:45] Koops: Yeah, you could.
[16:45] crate: well
[16:45] crate: here's my guess
[16:45] crate: one of the first three candidates for the election is mafia or none of them are
[16:46] crate: jeejee's timing seems too late to me for the mafia
[16:46] Koops: I think Shikyo is mafia.
[16:46] crate: ilovektf is clearly not mafia since he got ZERO support
[16:46] Koops: Um, yeah.
[16:46] crate: and shikyo has been posting lots and lots of fluff
[16:46] crate: so yeah
[16:46] Koops: Yep.
[16:46] crate: i have him down as the most likely red too
[16:46] Koops: And he was bandwagoned from the start..
[16:46] Koops: And then people changed.
[16:46] Koops: Just seems like he's mafia.
[16:47] crate: he's said extremely little considering the number of words he's posted
[16:47] Koops: I know!
[16:49] Koops: Well, fun. I figured you out.
[16:49] crate: right conclusion, wrong reason
[16:50] crate: lmao
[16:50] Koops: Rofl.
[16:55] Koops: I don't want Jimtudor protected. :|
[16:55] crate: if i were mafia there is no way i'd hit him right now
[16:55] Koops: I know...
[16:55] Koops: It's stupid.
[16:56] crate: i think most of the mafia is hiding in the >half of the players who havent said anything constructive
[16:56] Koops: Well, definitely.
[16:56] crate: its too easy
[16:56] Koops: It's the easiest.
[16:57] Koops: It blends them into a really big crowd.
[16:57] Koops: That's the best possible situation.
[16:57] crate: mhm
[16:57] Koops: Now, if everyone were active... It would be stupid.
[16:57] Koops: But that's not the case.
[16:58] Koops: Yeah, he would...
[16:59] Koops: Also if I was mafia, I'm sure my clues would be pretty simple to read. ;P
[17:00] crate: i do not envy pyr, trying to make up clues for so many players who probably have no profile and so few posts
[17:00] Koops: Yeah.
[17:00] Koops: I edited my profile because of that.
[17:00] crate: heh
[17:00] Koops: I even put a picture in there. ;-;
[17:00] crate: i see
[17:00] Koops: Not of me, but yes. Lol.
[17:00] crate: btw i think it's interesting how much more town-favored pyr's setup is than qatols
[17:00] crate: same number of players but we have an extra vigi, medic
[17:00] Koops: Yeah.
[17:01] crate: same number of mafia
[17:01] Koops: Honestly I want to see the town win, anyways.
[17:01] crate: and sheriff is way more powerful than pardoner
[17:01] Koops: Even though being on the mafia would be more exciting.
[17:01] crate: my favorite role is townie
[17:01] crate: actually
[17:01] crate: favorite role would be veteran
[17:01] crate: cause its SUPER townie
[17:01] Koops: Haha.
[17:02] Koops: Okay, again. If I was mafia I would not point out to you that I knew. :<
[17:02] crate: i know
[17:04] crate: i wonder how much the town really trusts shikyo
[17:05] Koops: I know I don't.
[17:05] crate: actually
[17:05] crate: i guess my big thought is that being able to just look past who is posting is the best
[17:06] crate: link the content to the player, not the player to the content, if you get what i mean
[17:06] Koops: Yeah, I get it.
[17:07] crate: and i do doubt i'm going to die tonight; i'm too obvious a target i think, and unless you're playing me really well, the mafia knows i havent really shown anything dangerous yet
[17:07] Koops: Great I mispelled send in my post.
[17:07] Koops: To end.
[17:07] Koops: -_-;
[17:07] crate: lol
[17:07] Koops: crate I don't think anyone really suspects you.
[17:07] Koops: But I'm sure people think you're with the town.
[17:07] Koops: Just my thoughts.
[17:08] crate: i have posted really nothing but facts, and a good plan is a good plan either way
[17:08] Koops: Because mafia members should seem like part of the town, too.
[17:08] crate: its easy to seem like part of our town
[17:08] crate: dont say anything
[17:08] crate: :p
[17:08] Koops: =P
[17:10] crate: while i'd be surprised if i die, i would be SHOCKED if you die
[17:10] Koops: Yes.
[17:10] crate: i really hope people dont roleclaim to shikyo
[17:10] crate: or to jeejee for that matter
[17:10] Koops: I KNOW.
[17:11] Koops: Hopefully they look at them just the same as others.
[17:11] Koops: To me they're even more suspcious.
[17:11] crate: yeah
[17:11] Koops: I can't type
[17:11] Koops: -_-;
[17:11] crate: anyone running is suspicious
[17:11] Koops: Yeah.
[17:11] Koops: That's what I had said before.
[17:11] Koops: To silly Jimtudor.
[17:11] Koops: ;_;
[17:11] crate: i hope his clue analysis is as good as he claims
[17:11] Koops: Who's the one that said they ran before they looked?
[17:11] crate: ilovektf
[17:12] crate: all the more reason to think he's not mafia, after the overwhelming show of support he got, lol
[17:12] Koops: Yeah.
[17:12] crate: he does have some name value; tbh his platform is comparable to jeejee but jeejee had better timing
[17:13] Koops: I'd rather have ilovektf but I'd rather have JeeJee over Shikyo. So that's why I voted for him.
[17:13] Koops: Wow...
[17:13] Koops: I really can't type.
[17:13] crate: foolishness must be town, since a mafia playing like that makes no sense
[17:14] crate: the town as a whole likes shikyo
[17:14] crate: so saying he's shifty at this point only makes you suspicious
[17:14] Koops: :S
[17:14] crate: hence no mafia would do it regardless of shikyo's alignment
[17:14] crate: saying it publicly anyway
[17:15] Koops: I'm just waiting for the nigt actions to be sent so we can move on.
[17:15] Koops: night*
[17:15] crate: heh yeah
[17:15] crate: tomorrow it should get interesting
[17:15] Koops: Yeah.
[17:15] Koops: I really want to see who gets killed. >_>;
[17:18] Koops: Aw... why do we have a big chunk of inactives? ._.
[17:19] crate: new players who got townie and get bored, then mafia hide amongst them
[17:19] Koops: I'd laugh if they were all mafia.
[17:19] crate: i guess
[17:19] Koops: Lmao.
[17:19] crate: idk, i love being townie, like jeejee said
[17:28] crate: oh btw now i understand that ":S" earlier; i hadnt read your post when you said it
[17:28] Koops: Yes...
[17:28] Koops: -_-;
[17:28] Koops: It's okay, though.
[17:29] Koops: Things can work in a lot of different ways if people at least begin to CONSIDER Shikyo.
[17:29] crate: i think your biggest problem is the timing of that post
[17:29] crate: you want to wait till day to say those things
[17:29] Koops: That's true.
[17:29] Koops: But if I was hit
[17:29] crate: unless you have some reason to think you're going to die
[17:30] Koops: It's kind of safe to say who could be mafia.
[17:30] Koops: >_>
[17:30] Koops: Also, it could just be me looking like I'm asking an honest question.
[17:30] Koops: Who knows.
[17:30] crate: you look more like a stupid townie than anything else so far to me
[17:30] crate: >_>
[17:30] Koops: Ahahaha.
[17:31] crate: but not a really stupid townie
[17:31] crate: i have a couple of those marked down
[17:31] crate: they're really absurdly bad or dumb or something
[17:31] Koops: I really just want to know why he put Jimtudor on the list, that's all.
[17:31] Koops: There are more important people to the town.
[17:32] crate: defend it like that if anyone questions your wording

[17:32] Koops: He doesn't really post, and if he does...
[17:32] Koops: It sucks.
[17:33] crate: i hope you are town aligned and can pick up on other roles like you sniped mine
[18:16] Koops: I got Shikyo to add iloveKTF.
[18:16] Koops: I am great.
[18:17] Koops: Even though it doesn't mean that much.
[18:17] Koops: Lmao.
[18:17] crate: heh
[18:17] Koops: Oh well, I just wanted to redeem my stupid.
[18:17] Koops: .-.
[18:17] crate: it's ok; you're not the only one who's made dumb posts
[18:18] Koops: Yeah, I know.

Take that as you will. She's playing badly for sure, but I think she's just being stupid and I hope she'll stop being stupid soon.

(One note of emphasis: don't look at who is saying what when you're reading posts. Look at what's being said, see if it makes sense/contributes anything, THEN look at who wrote it. I said this above but I know half of you aren't going to read the whole convo.)

Obviously this dovetails nicely into my suspicions. I'm going to call Shikyo out for his huge volume of words with little to nothing said in them. If you want to convince me you're not a mafia trying to play the town by hiding behind lots of fluff, start making real contributions instead of repeating things that were already said and agreeing with everyone. The mayor position doesn't strike me as a real benefit to the town anyway other than keeping the mayor behind BG protection, and let me tell you I am not convinced Shikyo is worth that BG protection. Regardless of your alignment I think your fluff isn't helping the town any.

(After I wrote this I saw your most recent post. Definitely a step up if your targets happen to be good).

Right now my dumb players list includes Raxor, Pawsome, The_Master, Koopie (well...), and l10f.

Inactives: omG.[RaYnE], clazziquai, motbob, adriix33 (didn't vote, may get modkilled after day 2), SugiuraMidori (claimed quite some time ago he'd be inactive--driving from Tuscon, but that's too long ago, also in danger of modkill), Knutti, and epicdoom

My guess is probably half the mafia is among those players. Some of the stupid players are probably just being stupid because they're not reading the whole thread or have no idea what to do or just don't actually think and re-read their posts before they click the button, but even in a newbie game that will only get you so far imo.

fuck i'm tired of writing for a bit I'll follow this up in a bit but I need a break from writing for now

start making posts with content people there are at least two couple obvious things that people should do to contribute. I'm not going to tell you what they are though since I want to know who is actually thinking in this game and who isn't, and I'm going to do one of them myself soon if no one else does

vx70GTOJudgexv

United States3161 Posts

May 21 2009 19:48 GMT

#398

I'm concerned you posted that because now I'm wondering if you're a blue, and that's going to hint off mafia, possibly forcing a prot or a incarc on you tonight. Overall, I think that was a move that should get you on your "stupid players" list. *shrug*

Regarding Shikyo, he did have a lot of support and some was certainly bandwagoning, but we are all suspicious of everyone. I expect a certain amount of people to be suspicious of me, and I'm shocked there have been 0 claims for me to defend.

Crate - you voted for Ra.Xor.2. Why? We have seen 3 VERY weak clues leading to Ra.Xor.2 (one being my own, that was a paranoia thing - everyone's out to get you kind of clue). If you're trying to avoid bandwagoning, just be informed, but if you have a legitimate reason for it, don't be like "I want you guys to figure it out yourself" that's not what this game is about. You're only harming us by holding out.

vx70GTOJudgexv

United States3161 Posts

May 21 2009 19:52 GMT

#399

Ok I can see based on his posts why your suspicious now, but still, these things need to be explained. We win as a town, we lose as a town, and unless you're a mafioso, you should be willing to let us in on everything we need to know.

Shikyo

Finland33997 Posts

May 21 2009 19:57 GMT

#400

Awww it's too bad that Koopie so adamantly believes I'm mafia. And the reason Jimtudor was on my list you can see in the day 2 post.

I have only been trying to post useful content. I'd have been posting a bit less if I didn't feel like I had to comment on something. I have been reading past posts and analyzing things quite a bit. I don't really like posting when I don't have complete information. I'll try to post something more interesting in the future. For now, I'm going to present my new and improved

Medic List:
crate
zeks
teks
vx70GTOJudgexv
ydg
iLoveKTF

Basically, I've added ydg because he has been useful to the town, primarily with his clue analysis. Otherwise, the once change was that Jimtudor was removed for obvious reasons.

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