EPTPyrry's Mafia Game - GG - Page 19
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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teks
Norway263 Posts
On May 21 2009 13:46 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground - I know he was on a few medic lists, but teks has a picture of a duck "flying" through the air with a rope (which could be used to whip someone). This isn't the first potential clue we've linked to teks, we've also had Zerg (creep), Norway (Erlend Loe). I personally don't think he's a lynch suspect yet, but we should keep an eye on him. Aww  Guess I better make some sort of defense speech? The Erlend Loe clue I've adressed several times before, probably just a red herring. But with one of the three Norwegians dead, I guess this ties closer to me now than it did before. In this department, it would be stupid for me to expose myself further by killing off softer. The rope in my picture is attached to the helicopter, otherwise mr. Darkwing would hit the ground awfully fast :p The Zerg link could apply to so many people that I don't think it's an actual hint. Too many people with zerg chosen.But by all means - do keep an eye on me. I don't mind! ydg and Crate: Nice clue analysis. I like it. I'm also in favor of a double lynch vote, and I guess lynching Jayme is the best option we have now. | ||
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
Waiting for the elected officials to put out monster sized posts. | ||
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teks
Norway263 Posts
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EsbenPM
Denmark364 Posts
Basically my name can link me to anyone named Esben (Even myself since it's my RL name  ), and since there are a lot of people with the name, picking one and trying to link clues with that name just seems a bit weak to me. I know that if you go to wiki and type in Esben he is the first to come up (Checked it when crate brought it up), but i still think that if pyrr were to make a clue like that he would choose a significant Esben (if there is one) and not just whoever came up first in a search (I have never heard of this guy despite being a dane, so i doubt anyone else in this game knows him). On top of that i think the fairy tale link is arround the same level of Darkwing Duck having a whip and teks (Forcing clues onto a person, when you are most likely missing the real point of the clue).But nice to see people putting an effort into clue analysises and finding all these connections. As for the lynch i agree that Jamie is our strongest suspect (He has acted a bit suspicious and have clues linked to him), but i like the idea of having a vigi take him out, and see if we can find a similar strong suspect for the lynch, and maybe nail two mafias in one blow. Since this would make it possible for us to lower the mafia KP for night 3, assuming we suceed with both lynches. It also makes sure that our vigi hits don't go to waste, meaning mafia kills the vigis before they are used. | ||
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vx70GTOJudgexv
United States3161 Posts
On May 21 2009 21:01 EsbenPM wrote: Hmm, guess i should adress the clues crate links to me. Basically my name can link me to anyone named Esben (Even myself since it's my RL name ), and since there are a lot of people with the name, picking one and trying to link clues with that name just seems a bit weak to me. I know that if you go to wiki and type in Esben he is the first to come up (Checked it when crate brought it up), but i still think that if pyrr were to make a clue like that he would choose a significant Esben (if there is one) and not just whoever came up first in a search (I have never heard of this guy despite being a dane, so i doubt anyone else in this game knows him). On top of that i think the fairy tale link is arround the same level of Darkwing Duck having a whip and teks (Forcing clues onto a person, when you are most likely missing the real point of the clue).But nice to see people putting an effort into clue analysises and finding all these connections. As for the lynch i agree that Jamie is our strongest suspect (He has acted a bit suspicious and have clues linked to him), but i like the idea of having a vigi take him out, and see if we can find a similar strong suspect for the lynch, and maybe nail two mafias in one blow. Since this would make it possible for us to lower the mafia KP for night 3, assuming we suceed with both lynches. It also makes sure that our vigi hits don't go to waste, meaning mafia kills the vigis before they are used. My only concern with relying on a vigi hit is if the vigis are inactive, then we have a problem and we'd end up with him (Jayme) running off scott free for a night. I'd rather put him in the lynch and have a vigi go for our second strongest suspect. Also, did we ever decide on A) Confirmed townie plan B) If vet got hit/prot happened last night, claiming it? | ||
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EsbenPM
Denmark364 Posts
On May 21 2009 21:05 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: My only concern with relying on a vigi hit is if the vigis are inactive, then we have a problem and we'd end up with him (Jayme) running off scott free for a night. I'd rather put him in the lynch and have a vigi go for our second strongest suspect. Didn't really think about the vigis being inactive, but then of course you are absolutely right that we should go for Jayme. The only reason i'd like to see the vigi hit go to Jayme is that our vigis are an extra kp, which we should make sure is used effectively and on strong suspects. Because we can always lynch people, but the vigi kills is a one time thing which the mafia can't affect, and therefore should be used on a strong suspect and not on a weak connection. Plus there's always the chance this extra kp is taken away from us by them dying, so we need to get it used and hopefully take out a few mafia doing so... But of course not lynching Jayme requires us to find another suspect before the day is over which could prove hard to do.. | ||
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EsbenPM
Denmark364 Posts
As for calling out hits it could help give an idea of who mafia is targetting, to help the medics for the next night. | ||
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Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
Only 2 people were lynched, one of which was a blue. However, the blue who was lynched still basically only had a townie's powers, just reducing our security, so this is close to an ideal outcome for us. I'm still curious of what Jimtudor would have posted next, since he kind of hinted that he might have something interesting to say. Now, I'd like to say that Jimtudor is such an experienced player that roleclaiming bodyguard to either the Sheriff or the Mayor would not make any sense whatsoever. Roleclaiming bodyguard in general seems just pointless and stupid. People always suspect it, but I'm not sure if it has ever happened in any game thus far. I think it's more reasonable to assume that he was lynched without the knowledge of him being a bodyguard. I think there are a couple of things we should examine. The first one is obvious; What happened to the third hit? There are a few possible scenarios: a medic protection, a veteran hit, and a stacked hit against either of the people who were lynched. In the case the hits were stacked, it'd be far more likely that they would stack hits against Jimtudor than softer. This is simply because softer is far less likely to be protected, and one hit should suffice. If Jimtudor indeed got hits stacked against him, what would make the mafia so eager to kill him, being that he was already under suspicion by numerous people? One reason might that he could have found out something that he was going to post. Or maybe they thought that he'd be such an important player that he would be worth a couple of hits to take care of? What I think is more likely is that a medic blocked a hit, or that they hit a veteran. So in the best case scenario, we have a basically confirmed townie and the the medic, possibly even contacted each other by now. Or a vet just took a hit, but that would be a good thing as well. However, since Jimtudor was thought to be relatively suspicious, the mafia had no real reason to hit him yet, especially with stacked hits. This could mean that we're just against a stupid mafia, which would obviously be a good thing. | ||
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teks
Norway263 Posts
I do agree though that the most likely event is either veteran or medic protection. Out of these two I think a veteran hit is the most plausible, unless one of our medics actually striked gold on selecting target.. Which obviously could happen, but it's hard to do. | ||
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EsbenPM
Denmark364 Posts
On May 21 2009 21:46 teks wrote: There is one more possible reason for only two hits though: Inactivity. This wouldn't surprise me at all seeing how many inactive people we have in this game. If a few mafia were to be inactive and not submit their orders.. you get the picture. The other possibility is - if I understand how the mafia works correctly - lack of organization. Since 6-7 mafia have 3 KP, I'm assuming that means that each target needs to be hit by 2 mafia in order for the kill to happen? So if these 2 mafia spread to two different targets, they basically lose 1 KP? I do agree though that the most likely event is either veteran or medic protection. Out of these two I think a veteran hit is the most plausible, unless one of our medics actually striked gold on selecting target.. Which obviously could happen, but it's hard to do. Doesn't mafia just send in a list of targets and pyrr randomly assigns a mafia to the hits? | ||
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BWdero
Netherlands476 Posts
On May 21 2009 21:46 teks wrote: There is one more possible reason for only two hits though: Inactivity. This wouldn't surprise me at all seeing how many inactive people we have in this game. If a few mafia were to be inactive and not submit their orders.. you get the picture. The other possibility is - if I understand how the mafia works correctly - lack of organization. Since 6-7 mafia have 3 KP, I'm assuming that means that each target needs to be hit by 2 mafia in order for the kill to happen? So if these 2 mafia spread to two different targets, they basically lose 1 KP? I do agree though that the most likely event is either veteran or medic protection. Out of these two I think a veteran hit is the most plausible, unless one of our medics actually striked gold on selecting target.. Which obviously could happen, but it's hard to do. That's not how it works. Mafia send in a list of people they want to hit. Let's say mafia has 5 killpower. They want to hit player 1 twice and players 2 3 and 4 once. In order to do this a single mafia sends phyrry a hitlist. The list would look like this. 1 player 1 2 player 1 3 player 2 4 player 3 5 player 4 All mafia needs to utilize their full killpower is only 1 active guy. | ||
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teks
Norway263 Posts
I'm thinking veteran hit then. If this is the case, they probably won't bother to hit him again, since he's basically just a townie with a fancy blue title now. Which also means that the veteran is safe to roleclaim. | ||
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BWdero
Netherlands476 Posts
On May 21 2009 21:55 teks wrote: Oh, ok. I was assuming that each mafia member had to PM the orders to Pyrr. Never mind what I said then :p I'm thinking veteran hit then. If this is the case, they probably won't bother to hit him again, since he's basically just a townie with a fancy blue title now. Which also means that the veteran is safe to roleclaim. Not really. For starters, how in the world would the veteran confirm himself as veteran? And even if he could I would think mafia would want to kill a confirmed townie. | ||
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teks
Norway263 Posts
On May 21 2009 21:58 BWdero wrote: Not really. For starters, how in the world would the veteran confirm himself as veteran? And even if he could I would think mafia would want to kill a confirmed townie. I didn't mean as a confirmed townie, as you say, that wouldn't work. I was thinking more in the lines of.. clearing up the discussion on what happened with the third hit. Now, the mafia could pose as the veteran in question, but I don't really see that happening - since the real veteran can expose that plan and they would have a suspect in the limelight. What I said probably came out wrong, what the veteran does really doesn't matter THAT much. I'm just saying that it would be safe for him to talk about it now since he isn't a threat to the mafia anyway. On the other hand, mafia may want to take another hit on him the next night just to stop him from telling us about it, but this isn't likely either - since we would see that he flipped veteran and figure out what happened anyway. | ||
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softer
Norway104 Posts
Go get them town! | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather. And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me) | ||
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teks
Norway263 Posts
On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me) I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws: 1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real 2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well) 3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely.. Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this. | ||
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
Firstly, let's discuss the issue of the missing hit. All (almost) the possibilities have been conveniently outlined for me, I just want to discuss what they mean to the town at this point. A) Stacked Hits: Personally I find this unlikely, but then I thought that mafia hitting jimmy in the first place is pretty unlikely, so who knows, right? Maybe they have a bluesnipe-in-training who was convinced that either softer or jimmy were something more than they actually were. Maybe jimmy was protted and mafia made the right play, etc. Doesn't really matter, our course of action remains the same: analyze clues, throw out accusations, read defences, analyze support, lynch, discuss the outcome. B) Veteran Hit: Remember when I said it could be useful to post that you've been hit if we're trying to reconstruct the kill list? If you are on the medic list or have been active enough that you feel medics are thinking about protting you, this isn't one of those times. Otherwise, it probably is, but i'm open to others' input. C) Medic prot: Medic X protected person Y. That means Y is innocent, and X should be chatting with them right about now. D) The other possibility: This is even less likely than A, but I'd like to throw it out there. It could be possible that they were also convinced that softer's a BG for whatever reason, and popped the third hit on me or Shikyo, which whiffed when softer didn't flip as expected. Functionally speaking, to the town this is no different than possibility A, so nothing more to say here. To discuss the hits in general, I'd like to reiterate what Shikyo said earlier: that this was a good night for the town. Yeah me and him inch a little closer to potential death, but really, we haven't lost much. So in general, good stuff! I'll hold off on discussing the current lynch (for a bit) and just throw a message to our vigis out there. You can act next night. So far you don't really have a reason to act, but lynches have a way of giving us a crapload of information that might make it viable to kill night2. Either way, you should PM, say, 2-4 people that you think are innocent (imo the medic list would be a good place to start) of your target if you choose to act but only if you're convinced enough of their guilt that you're willing to die for it. Note that the worst thing that can happen for the town is a fairly restrictive scenario: you pm a mafia that you're hitting a townie that was on their kill list, which they then alter to maximize deaths during the night. Else, you're swingin' (unelss i'm missing something) Issue of double lynch: this is a toughie. Right now we certainly don't have enough information to warrant one, but by day 3 that could change. We could've lynched and/or vigi'd a red letting us re-read their posts knowing that fact, our DTs can rolecheck by then and try to sway the town, and of course we'll have the night kills to chat about. I want more input on double lynch from you guys -- what do you think? Also, what the hell are you doing roleclaiming to me, are you retarded? | ||
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