EPTRight, but why even play the game, then? Sure, it's giving up with a purpose, but it's still giving up.
Green townie taking a hit is a net bonus to town because we save blues. Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 2
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Maybe if you actualy laid out a plan as to how you thought it to work, I can show you where it fails. Look at people's posting histories, determine what role they're likely playing and why they're acting in the way that they are. Extrapolate from there. This is how nearly all of the blues were gutted last game. You can start turn 1. We did. It worked. a Mafia won't use the Pardoner role if the Town has a major suspect. Yes, they will. If they can delay a kill and secure the KP they need to end the game, the mafia will pardon. The mafia might even pardon a double innocent lynch in order to drain both double lynches for the cost of a single confirmed target. I've been mafia every single game until this one. I was one of the main strategy organizers during mafia 2, in which there WAS a mafia pardoner. I've been in their position and I know what they do with that position. You're assuming the pardoner would pardon the first mafia that's targetted, I'm not. I'm assuming a mafia pardoner would pardon either at a moment when doing so would effectively end the game by saving enough KP to give mafia a majority in votes, or by forcing a re-double lynch. | ||
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But to me it seems like you want these blues to start running for office, No, I want the people who are already running who ARE blue to get voted in. I want the town to look at our candidates and other players and to their best to put together a private, but coherant estimate about how people are acting and WHY they're acting that way. I want town to be cognizant that there ARE mafia running and mafia supporting mafia that are running. I want them to look and see patterns within that. Also, mafia will not focus fire this early in the game. Clues will be stacking up and they need to significantly decrease the amount of active players they are arguing against and voting against. Blues should NOT be outing themselves explicitly, especially not in PMs to either the pardoner or mayor. | ||
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You can't go into the game expecting a worst-case scenario in which Mafia finds every blue and the only way to save them is for every normal townie to pretend they themselves are. Like I said, it's giving up with a purpose, but it's still giving up. And with no logical purpose behind it at this point in the game. Oh, I don't think that trying to go for mayor is how a green would/should go about feinting blue, especially not in this case, but greens attempting to signal to mafia that they are blue does have a purpose. | ||
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Are you seriously suggesting an "every Townie for himself" deal here? No, i'm suggesting that townies put some effort into the game. But that means I'm on drugs, it would seem. I was in a Mafia family with our Godfather in office, so I know how that looks like too. Hey, me too! I'm assuming they would lay still and be happy to have a guy in the office, and not compromise it with wild pardoning Office means absolutely nothing in this game if people don't throw roles at the people in office via pm except for1- First day lynch/2 votes. 2- Pardon ability. Mafia would not just sit in office and twiddle their thumbs. They will use the advantages of office listed above to their advantage. The question is whether confirming yourself as mafia by pardoning is worth the canceled lynch/double lynch. In many cases it would be, especially as townie numbers drop. By that time the game would end, and by that time, we'd have the pardoner figured out. If not, it's irrelevant, because it's gg if such an action can swing it. You've been mafia. You know very well that it is relevant. Delaying a kill for a day saves you KP for the current night and lets you essentially hit twice in a row. I don't understand how you can play down a potentially game ending ability. I'll give you a possible game scenario: Day 1- Mislynch, no biggie. 22 townies 1 traitor 6 mafia. Night 1- 19 townies, 1 traitor 6 mafia. Day 2- Mislynch,  . 18 townies 1 traitor 6 mafiaNight 2- 1 medic defends successfully 16 townies 1 traitor, 6 mafia. Day 3- Proper lynch/2x lynch vote :D. 16 townies 1 traitor, 5 mafia. Night 3- Vig misses . 12 townies 1 traitor 5 mafia. traitor and mafia find each other. Day 4- 1 townie/1 mafia split 2x lynch vote. Pardonned. 12 townies 1 traitor 5 mafia Night 4- 9 townies 1 traitor 5 mafia. Day 5- 2 mafia die :D- 9 townies 1 traitor 3 mafia Night 5- 7 townies, 1 traitor, 3 mafia Day 6- we lynch the other guy pardoned. 6 townies, 1 traitor, 3 mafia. Night 6- 4 town, 1 traitor, 3 mafia. Game ends. Lets assume it doesn't and a vet was hit Night 6*- 5 town 1 traitor 3 mafia. Day 7*- Traitor lynched. 5 town 3 mafia Night 7- 3 town 3 mafia Game ends. Day 7**- Successful Lynch- 5 town 1 traitor 2 mafia Night 8- 4 town, 1 traitor 2 mafia. Basically, in this scenario, town needs to hit a mafia pretty much every night from day 3 onwards. | ||
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Hmm, I've seen this power play before. 2. Empyrean. Was Blue.Was it in Mafia 1? or 2? | ||
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Then set me up for pardoner. I don't need to know who the other blues are or any other information. Mayor should not be getting role information via pm regardless of who he is. | ||
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And quite frankly, nemy's move is not stupid, nor is it against what the town wants. nemy's move is a fairly strong gambit. If he's not lying we gain a LOT from trusting him enough to get into office. | ||
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@L and if the opposite? Well, anyone running for mayor has the same threat attached to them, only that if NemY was mafia, he's far more likely to be scrutinized and killed off early. Basically draw yourself up a prisoner's dilemma for the situation in the case that nemy is telling the truth, or if nemy is lying from his perspective and see what he should have done. This is basically how you need to analyze most of people's actions. Determine if the risk outweighs the benefits. There's a higher proportion of mafia members running for office than those who are not, yet they're all fairly kiddy gloving amongst themselves besides nemy. There's also a number of very odd trends with respect to voting and actions in this thread. I'm not saying assume the guy is innocent, I'm saying the risk/benefit ratio is substantially higher if we get him in. Don't roleclaim to him even if he is voted in. | ||
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Feel free to look at the actual benefits of office. They are limited to not being killed and fucking the town over. We have a number of very good players that can clue analyze and I'm certain they will be getting medic protection. Also, I seriously want people to go read mafia 2's section on this after checking out who was mafia. | ||
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but that also means we can leave another important player vulnerable. Important player? There are maybe 5-7 members of this game who are not very strong players. Out of the 23-25 that are strong players, equal distribution gives 5 that are mafia and 1 is the traitor. The town will have 15-17 unprotected strong players regardless of who we choose to put in.Running purely on player 'worth' means we allow far more leverage to put the strongest mafia players in office. Running on post history and in-game action gives us a slightly better shot. Also, with 3 kp, its highly unlikely that mafia stacks early unless one of these 'high value' role detector players is on their side. If they do stack, high fives all around, they're essentially crippling themselves for little gain. Mafia plays against the clue clock. The longer the game goes on, the easier it is to pick them out cluewise and the easier it is for them to make a mis-step. | ||
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Clue analyzers almost never get the protection they deserve, i honestly dunno where you got that idea You can't protect everyone all the time. If you're going off last game, the medics were pretty off the wall. Better players means better medics. Lets hope that holds true. And Bockit, for someone that was in IRC with me finding ways to fuck empyrean over during Mafia 2, you're looking at this in an awfully interesting way. Also, why you drunk so much? O_o | ||
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but you keep insisting First off, I said that once. Second, you're quoting a post made FIVE HOURS AGO. Third, you've been very active between then and here. I started off my analysis looking for blue players because I wanted to know who to support and who not to support in the mayoral running. I personally think i'm 90%+ correct on them and for 2 of them i'm not sure exactly what role they are, but its pretty obvious that some are blue and not red. Why am I not saying anything about mafia? Because I want to be more certain and want to see if clues match up with those people who I find suspicious due to behavior/lack of activity/voting patterns. Basically you're saying that I'm mafia because I'm not accusing people of being mafia on turn 1. Okay, slick. | ||
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I was out for the evening. I would have responded earlier but I got a BSOD right when i was typing my post had to leave then. I'm not saying you're mafia. I think you are perhaps just being a little to confident in your blue picks. That is all. Way to pussy out when you realize you got caught acting like a moron. The tone of your previous post is COMPLETELY inconsistent with your meek reply. You stepped up to accuse. Red colour and all. Take responsibility for pointing the finger at someone who's going to flip townside. Oh, speaking of which. When I die I want someone to post a complete list of my posts. The difference that I see between this and game 2 was that empyrean came out as dt to force town to vote him into mayor just because he wanted to be mayor. There was no "Mafia have found me I need the protection". Though similar, I see it as different enough to take caution before we decide he's a dt. Feel free to go and look how we, as mafia, influenced the discussion. If anything, the current situation, with the 2 man confirmed pms, the lowered mafia count, the lowered KP and the weaker nature of the offices (Mafia 2 office was RIDICULOUS powerful) all point towards less reason for mafia to put themselves under the spotlight. And I'm citing mafia 2 so that people can see how MAFIA will react to this situation, not to say he's 100% blue obv np. I'm saying ignore the situation as it is and remove yourself from your role. Then think about how mafia would act given this situation. How would they act to plant nemy in the first place? How would the react if he's not one of them? The second situation is already covered. You can go look at the case example which has largely been replicated here by a number of players. | ||
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But that's going to make vote analysis when we come down to the wire REALLY ANNOYING. | ||
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I was just making an observation. With a red tag. You know exactly what you were doing. Don't play coy with me. | ||
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But regardless, I think I see where you're going, and yes that does put suspicion on me, however I feel that in this game, a townie is more scared of having a mafia in pardoner position than mafia is scared of having a dt in power. Maybe people disagree with me on this, I'm open to discussion on the topic. I happen to agree with you, but judging from the majority of games mafia players tend to jump into the mayoral election very quickly to maximize bandwagoning and so that the few mafia supporters can join up in a spaced out manner. But yeah, if you recall our plan during that section, randombum was actually supposed to get mayor and 2 inactive mafia fucked up our voteswing. The question to ask is always risk/reward. Mafia gain a massive amount by popping into office; the question is how likely do you think nemy's gambit's success was? Historically its never worked. The risk? Putting a 'pseudo dt' into such suspicion with only 6 of them seems like an INCREDIBLE risk. Running an experienced player like ver or ace or caller seems like a much better bet and is far more likely given the timing. | ||
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L running around screaming the sky is falling. Excuse me? I've posted far more logical and detailed analysis than you have despite you tossing out 2 long posts full of emotionally laden 'whoa oh shit, lets lynch the douchebag' casual text. Your argument has been presented in its entirety before, but you spruced it up and added a bunch of flavor text, remember after all, when ace plays he believes that: It's not what you know, it's what you can convince people to believe. So posting the same "it was a dumb move, ergo he is mafia + we need to kill him" content was pretty spot on, but you completely ignored the counter argument. There's probably an entire's page worth of writing on the topic which you ignored. Why would you want to knock Nemy out of office? Well, for one, you're number three. You're the one that directly loses out on an office position. Two: you ver and mynock have supported each other in a circular fashion, then all seemingly dissapeared from the thread. What's more, the vast majority of supporters on your nemy position were people who bandwagoned you/ver/mynock very early without much posting like dreamflower. SUSPICIOUS? Just about as suspicious as someone calling out Plexa, which I agree was a fucking retarded vote. What's more, your rebuttal of my 'nonsense claims' echoes EXACTLY WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING. Mafia will ONLY reveal pardoner once they can end the game or when the trade off is beyond worth it. 15 player games have far less sacrifice potential than we currently have, especially if the pardoner gets tied up in clue evidence and is going to be a target in a day or two. ONCE THEY DO, however, WE ARE DOWN AN ENTIRE DAY. Your rebuttal of trying to get blues into office is that you believe you're worth more to the town than a blue role, but the problem there, as I stated earlier, is that your personal capital makes you a prime target for a mafia candidacy. What's more; you keep promoting you, ver, and Mynock, which is interesting because you three started out circularly voting for each other. Its very possible, and in my mind probable that there's at least one mafia between the three of you. The most dangerous part to you, however, is that nemY isn't going to win by a landslide at current rates: he's going to take the mafia coveted pardoner spot. Unlike in previous games where the mayor had networking ability, the only thing he has here is a double vote and his target will likely be voted upon by the town anyways, so that's that. That said, you did end up reading 8 pages in an hour and a quarter minutes, seeing as you got up around 4:45 est, right? Maybe you ought to go back and actually read instead of scaremongering. You seem to have gone to sleep around 8pm last night too, which would be around 1.5 pages ahead of where you said you started off. Either you purposely ignored the thread (good mayor work there) or you've been lying. Feel free to provide me more information. Exact times, if you would. So let me interject: if one of you is mafia, which is likely, you'd act exactly how mafia acted in mafia 2, which is exactly how you're acting now. Its what we did before. Its what I'd do if I was mafia. | ||
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