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TL Mafia 5 [Game Over] - Page 50

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
March 22 2009 01:17 GMT
#981
For the love of god every player needs to see this and decide what they think because this is the most important post of the day this far.

+ Show Spoiler +
A few things....

(1) I am confident Mandalor is mafia because I am a Detective and I checked that shit out. He is also not the Godfather (unless he chose to appear as Mafia which seems very unlikely).

(2) Technically I am not 100% that he is Mafia, but I am 100% sure that he looks red to me. There are 3 Millers still, and 8 non-Godfather mafia members remaining. So statistically it's an 8 out of 11 or a 72.727% chance that he is Mafia, with the other portion being that he is a Miller.

(3) I know Detectives are not supposed to use a role check on day one. So before someone brings that up let me explain. + Show Spoiler [explanation] +
When i read the rules the first time I do remember reading that the only Night One abilities could be Medics and Clue checks. When I went back to re-read the rules, I didn't see that clause and assumed that the Day One rule for Detectives must have been from another game that I read, had previously played in or am currently playing in.

So I PM'ed Chuiu asking, and since he didn't come up with all these rules himself he too forgot that clause. We noticed the mistake shortly after, but knowledge can't be undone. So we modified my ability to compensate some for the error. I won't get a role check tonight, and for all purposes the game will pretend that I used my role check tonight instead. So I won't be able to consecutively role check on nights three and four, since I would have used this one tonight and that would be impossible. Tonight I get a clue check from Day One Clues.

In my opinion our mistake actually weakens my abilities over the first couple days. I was ready to go for Mandalor before I role checked him, so if I was unable to do that it is likely I would have gone for him anyway and it seems likely that he could have been lynched today regardless of any additional info (of course I could just say this and there is no proof of that here, though there are a few others that were fully aware of my suspicions toward him). So basically my first two Nights of abilities are both based off of Day One information alone, whereas I would have had an additional Day of information for my Role-check and now I only get one role check over the next three Days.

Chuiu should not confirm whether this is true or not in my opinion, because if he confirms it to be true or false it would basically 100% confirm my innocence/guilt. He is a moderator (or outsider) and should not be making posts to influence the game in a way that 100% determines a player's role. Choose for yourselves whether you believe my story or if you think it's fabricated. I knew someone would inquire about it though so I thought I should include it here.

I think that covers everything, but if I missed something ask and I'll let you know.


(4) Another Detective Role-Claimed to me during the night. Though I personally think this was very unwise for obvious reasons, he told me that the shockwave clue did not point to Pika Chu. This does not necessarily confirm his innocence. There was the whole other segment that was looked at that could have been a clue for Pika Chu. The Detective might not be a Detective at all and if Pika Chu is ever lynched or evidence is proved on him later in the game that "Detective" could potentially be another caught Mafia member. At that point it would be likely that I reveal that player, obviously I won't reveal him now though, but will continue to act as his mouth.

(5) I feel it is relatively safe for me to role claim at this point. There are two Bodyguards still left which will keep the Mafia from being able to get me. I can now use my Detective abilities at the town's requests if I deem them to be the best intentions and uses of the ability. It doesn't really benefit the Mafia to know what my role is a whole lot; I think it benefits the town much more as it gives the town a whole lot more information and knowledge which the Mafia won't necessarily benefit from. Also when the Bodyguards do all expire, Mafia would likely choose me as a target at that point anyway to get rid of the Mayor regardless of whether or not I had a role.

(6) Bodyguards it is imperative that you keep yourselves secret, even and especially from me (and BC)
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
March 22 2009 01:20 GMT
#982
On March 22 2009 10:17 Caller wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2009 10:13 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I dunno Caller, you call it the "ninja clue" but I think the ninja thing is a bit of a stretch. It's like you make this jump to the ninja thing and then find a bunch of ninja related things.


The guy is described as being dressed in black, armed to the teeth, and is agile enough to jump from seat to seat.

Sounds like a ninja to me.

And meh, I guess it isn't Mandalor. However, the clue still points quite strongly at Chaoser, whom has also been unusually "inactive."

Yeah I guess that could be a ninja.
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
March 22 2009 01:25 GMT
#983
First of all, here's what the kills tell us:

Firstly, recalling Ace's "Knights of the Zodiac" (XD)


Camlito -dead
Qatol -dead
BloodyC0bbler
Ver -dead
Caller
Bockit
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Ace -incarcerated
MrBabyHands
Versatile
Scaramanga -dead
JL13


From the looks of things, regardless of apparent guilt, it appears they are 1a2a3aing their way through the list.
I have no idea why Ace got incarcerated, so BC could very well be a mafiaso here. Or Ace. Or Both.
MrBabyHands appears to have disappeared off the radar. I note that Scaramanga's behavior, as mentioned by Ver, was weird from his normal townie behavior. If I were mafia and doing behavior analysis, I would have suspected that Scaramanga was a blue, and I would thus hit him. So I don't think mafia is as stupid as they seem here.
Infundibulum, usually very active and townie, has just posted a little bit and shut up. He could be the "bum-like" leader that has been mentioned several times.
JL13 is either a good townie or a very sneaky mafia. By the looks of the 1a2a3a I suspect the former.
Versatile is playing like she did last time, so I don't see anything suspicious yet.
Bockit appears to be townie here, however he could still be mafia.

Signs of a Mafia:
-Posts Crap
-Acts Different
-Doesn't get killed for the former
-Appears to have no fear of death
If they are smart mafia
-Posts big blocks of crap
-Acts the same
-doesn't get killed for the former
-Appears to fear death.

Consider that carefully when looking at vets vs. non-vets.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Icysoul
Profile Joined December 2007
Canada254 Posts
March 22 2009 01:26 GMT
#984
##I vote to lynch Mandalor
##I vote to use Double Lynch for tomorrow
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
March 22 2009 01:32 GMT
#985
Oh one more idea, "Ver's major arteries were stabbed into and they left him there to bleed out and die."

The pulmonary artery is based at the infundibulum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conus_arteriosus
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
March 22 2009 01:33 GMT
#986
BloodyCobbler, I read your analysis on Kennigit and it seems fairly solid. Indeed, I have not seen him posting much at all. I'll revisit the previous post in search of anything that would relate to him.

"Scara’s death gives us a lot of information however, that the current team of mafia players, for the most part, are retarded.
Scara was one of the towns top lynch suspects before he was killed, hell Ver was campaigning his death, and they killed him, showing that a) the mafia aren’t reading the thread carefully or 2) they aren’t seasoned players and made a rookie mistake."

You may be missing the obvious here. They may have sent in their hits to Chuiu, and he took a long time to make the night post. I don't know. Whether or not that is true, I thinks it's far to presumptuous, and extremely detrimental for us, to simply wave the mafia off as retarded. If we assume that my first statement is not true, then mafia would be under the knowledge that Scar was not one of them, and the town's eye, led by Ver, was on him. Why would mafia kill him? To tell us Ver is wrong about one, so he's wrong about the other? That's certainly the emotion that was instilled into me before I saw SoG posting that he had checked Mandalor and had found him to be red.

Maybe they thought he was BG? Ver explained that there was confusion about that (or, at least he said so in his post). What about the fact that he's on Ace's list? They've been minimizing Ace's list. Why? If there are mafia on that list, then it seems almost suicide to them. Guess they realize that those players, nevertheless, must be gotten rid of. I don't know.



Then there's Rice to consider. I felt redtooth did a good job with bringing him forth. Before that, Rice had rarely, if ever posted. And then, in a flurry of activity, when accused, he begins to post. And he doesn't defend himself. Rather, he makes pointless one-liners. He shakes off any accusations he has with a laugh.

Then he does the typical, "please rolecheck me so we dont waste a hit that couldve been for someone that is actually mafia... this is getting ridiculous how much crap im getting for having a picture of guys with knives in my profile in a MAFIA game." A rolecheck to me seems far too essential to waste, especially with him being in the running for being mafia. His behavior seems incredibly suspicious to me.

For this day, however, I vote for Mandalor to be lynched. I trust SoG entirely, and, with good fortune, he will turn up red rather than black (miller).
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
March 22 2009 01:33 GMT
#987
On March 22 2009 10:32 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Oh one more idea, "Ver's major arteries were stabbed into and they left him there to bleed out and die."

The pulmonary artery is based at the infundibulum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conus_arteriosus

oooooh that goes well with his actions

Can someone check into this please?
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22211 Posts
March 22 2009 01:47 GMT
#988
On March 22 2009 10:32 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Oh one more idea, "Ver's major arteries were stabbed into and they left him there to bleed out and die."

The pulmonary artery is based at the infundibulum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conus_arteriosus

Good find!
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
March 22 2009 03:13 GMT
#989
bumpity bump
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
March 22 2009 03:19 GMT
#990
On March 22 2009 10:25 Caller wrote:

I have no idea why Ace got incarcerated, so BC could very well be a mafiaso here. Or Ace. Or Both.


not saying that BC or Ace are/are not mafia, but BC's stated reason is that Ace was on the zodiac list, and incarcerating someone from the list keeps them alive.

Unless Ace is blue (and he should be careful not to complain about being incarcerated for this reason), there is really no loss in him being incarcerated except that he won't be able to be incarcerated in the future.

It seems like a reasonable course of action for BC to take imo.
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
mikeymoo
Profile Blog Joined October 2006
Canada7170 Posts
March 22 2009 03:33 GMT
#991
To be fair about people being less active than expected, school is wrapping up and finals are coming for a few of us.
Cheers.

I was just about to mention that putting Ace in jail will save him for another night.
o_x | Ow. | 1003 ESPORTS dollars | If you have any questions about bans please PM Kennigit
fusionsdf
Profile Blog Joined June 2006
Canada15390 Posts
March 22 2009 03:54 GMT
#992
there is another thing it does too, but I don't want to say what it is because of its nature.

In any case, its a move that made a fair bit of sense
SKT_Best: "I actually chose Protoss because it was so hard for me to defeat Protoss as a Terran. When I first started Brood War, my main race was Terran."
Chuiu
Profile Blog Joined June 2003
3470 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-24 02:15:32
March 22 2009 04:21 GMT
#993
On March 22 2009 00:40 redtooth wrote:
Will the miller reveal his role after death?

Of course.

As for Morning 2 taking longer to get up I felt the delay was necessary to give people more time to use their roles because I didn't move to night till the morning after I had planned to.



Vote Count:

Rice
Naib
Teejing
Fishball

Mandalor - 28
MrBabyHands
semioldguy *4
malongo
RaGe
Pyrrhuloxia
Rice
Bockit
LucasWoJ
redtooth
dreamflower
mikeymoo
Monoxide
fusionsdf
ahswtini
3 Lions
aZnvaLiaNce
Ra.Xor.2
chaoser
Tricode
Pika Chu
JeeJee
zeks
BWdero
LaXerCannon
Icysoul

Lucktar
Phrujbaz

Double Lynch Day 3 - 29 (16 needed)
malongo
Naib
Bockit
semioldguy *4
LucasWoJ
Teejing
redtooth
mikeymoo
Monoxide
fusionsdf
3 Lions
aZnvaLiaNce
Ra.Xor.2
chaoser
Pika Chu
zeks
Fishball
BWdero
LaXerCannon
Pyrrhuloxia
Versatile
Phrujbaz
dreamflower
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Icysoul

Abstain
CompX
♞
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5461 Posts
March 22 2009 04:31 GMT
#994
Is it the end of the day?
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
March 22 2009 04:33 GMT
#995
Btw I'm not saying BC was wrong for the move, I just wanted to hear an explanation since it seemed to come out of no where.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
March 22 2009 05:53 GMT
#996
I vote for Mandalor

I've been as active as I can, Caller. Not really sure what you're comparing my previous levels of activity to. The only game I can remember being at least somewhat active was BC's, where i did clue analysis.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Fishball
Profile Joined December 2005
Canada4788 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-22 06:03:28
March 22 2009 06:02 GMT
#997
So we already have enough votes for double lynch.
I assume we could cast our 2nd lynch in now?

Mandalor is pretty much dead no matter what, so I'll just leave my first vote at Rice.

I vote my second lynch vote on Humbug

edit: typo
靈魂交響曲
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
March 22 2009 06:03 GMT
#998
On March 22 2009 14:53 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I vote for Mandalor

I've been as active as I can, Caller. Not really sure what you're comparing my previous levels of activity to. The only game I can remember being at least somewhat active was BC's, where i did clue analysis.

Your posts so far are a mismatch of anti-vigi plan posts and uninformativeposts about last night-a lot of aomething that says nothing, and you haven't really done the clue analysis that you did last games.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Bockit
Profile Blog Joined November 2004
Sydney2287 Posts
March 22 2009 06:09 GMT
#999
On March 22 2009 15:02 Fishball wrote:
So we already have enough votes for double lynch.
I assume we could cast our 2nd lynch in now?

Mandalor is pretty much dead no matter what, so I'll just leave my first vote at Rice.

I vote my second lynch vote on Humbug

edit: typo


double lynch is for tomorrow I believe
Their are four errors in this sentance.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
March 22 2009 06:15 GMT
#1000
On March 22 2009 15:02 Fishball wrote:
So we already have enough votes for double lynch.
I assume we could cast our 2nd lynch in now?

Mandalor is pretty much dead no matter what, so I'll just leave my first vote at Rice.

I vote my second lynch vote on Humbug

edit: typo

We don't vote on who it is till Day 3.
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