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+ Show Spoiler +On March 18 2009 05:48 mikeymoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2009 23:28 fusionsdf wrote:
# I vote for Pyrrhuloxia
He has the soundest clue analysis by far. This is a much better way to choose than what someone did last game/what they say they will do this game.
Its much harder for a mafia to fake a good clue analysis (but still possible) than it is to just fake the town out by saying things like "I was a good townie last time!" ""I'm dedicated!"
I'm not going to tell everyone how to vote, but I would suggest it be done on clue analysis. I'm going to agree with this. #I vote for PyrrhuloxiaOn another note, I've quickly skimmed through some of these plans, and it seems that detectives checking someone out may be foiled by the Miller role? Correct me if I'm wrong, it's one of those "wake up to 5 new pages and can't be bothered yet" things that comes with the game.
You are correct about Millers. However, there isn't really anything that can be done about it. We have to treat millers as mafiosos early on at least.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 18 2009 05:50 semioldguy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 05:45 Qatol wrote:On March 18 2009 05:41 semioldguy wrote:On March 18 2009 05:39 Qatol wrote:On March 18 2009 05:32 semioldguy wrote:
I still think Vigilantes should just call out their hits right before they send them in.
They only get one hit, so if they get killed we didn't lose a special role. It makes sure the medics don't protect the person the vigilante is hitting so the medics don't accidentally reveal themselves to someone who may be Mafia. If a Mafia tries to fake as a vigilante the numbers will eventually not add up since all Vigilantes should be calling themselves out at some point. I disagree. If the vigis do that, it just gets them killed. The mafia can just hit the same target and mess with the clues (which are important this game). And if the mafia hit the vigi first, the town loses the hit. Vigis should hitclaim in private. Possibly with an elected role, better still with a confirmed townie. Can't you just PM your role ability during the day? It wouldn't take affect until night time, but it would essentially be the first thing done. As long as you send that PM before you make the role claim your hit should go off first, before any Mafia can order a kill on you. If the mafia decide to hit the same person then they are wasting one of their kill power. Yeah you're right. The only reason I can think of other than that is maybe to allow the mafia to hit your targets for you. There is a chance that you both will want to hit the same player, in which case declaring publicly will let them avoid that hit. Regardless, I think we agree this is a weak plan at best. Shall we get back to punching holes in BC's plan and/or creating a different one? I'm saying that this should be added to his plan... not trying to confirm through Vigilantes, but what do they have to lose by naming their hit? Pros: - Medics don't block them - Mafia can't easily roleclaim Vigilante if all Vigilantes hold to this rule - Keeps all of the clues we look for to be on Mafia members only Cons: - Mafia may have wanted to hit that person (but this is unlikely as the Vigilante should only try to hit prime suspects and the mafia wouldn't want to kill someone with a lot of suspicion if that person was innocent anyway)
Ah. Agreed. I just didn't see what you were getting at. This is what I get for thinking about eating my sugar cookies without actually eating them and then trying to have a coherent discussion!
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On March 18 2009 06:05 MrBabyHands wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 05:56 Qatol wrote:
You are correct about Millers. However, there isn't really anything that can be done about it. We have to treat millers as mafiosos early on at least.
i disagree. i think the difference between mafia and millers can be determined by their actions and their post content. i think this is a game about people, not logical strategies. find me someone who shows up red during an investigation-- a basic post and personality analysis can tell you if you got the right person or not. the signs of people lying can be detected, even over the ether. this is a factor i think a lot of people are underestimating.
Yes but that can only be done with a sufficient amount of data hence the "early on" part. Also, it cannot be done with some of the players (Ace comes to mind).
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Ok a few things.
First of all, Ace: Rolechecks can be used consecutively, just not 3 times in a row. Reread the role. Checking people can happen faster than you indicated.
Second of all: There is an easy way of getting around the GF posing as a vigi idea (which is mucking up a potential vigi plan). Don't just rolecheck the vigi. The vigi AND the town knows where the hit went. All we have to do is have the vigi confirm that his hit went through and then look for the clue. Why the clue? Because vigis can be CLUECHECKED. If the town can't find a clue when they know who the clue has to link to, well we are in a lot more trouble than I thought.
Now the mafia can try to fake this, but it is unlikely that the mafia they want is actually linked to the hit they want. It is probably worth thinking about rolechecking the vigi as well just in case, but really, unless the mafia get pretty lucky, they can't control how the hit will go.
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Ok even if they can use them up to 4 times - there is a limit. What if the town has to check multiple people? How do we do it? The DTs can't coordinate and there is no way to know who needs to be checked first. The DTs are gimped on this one and there is no way around it.
Confirm someone and coordination gets a lot easier.
If X is 100% mafia we shouldn't be using the Vigi hit anyway. This means X has to be likely mafia.
Why do you say this? If we get someone we think is 100% mafia, why not hit him if it isn't before the lynch?
Even with a cluecheck how do you know who the hit gets linked to from the Mafia side?
You don't. However, I checked with Chuiu: The mafia cannot control this. If the GF picks vigi in order to muck up this plan, it means they cannot fake medic or DT or BG and muck up another plan. Furthermore, chuiu has to randomly pick the GF for that hit otherwise all the GF can say is that he missed.
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How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect.
Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that....
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On March 18 2009 10:48 Ace wrote:
But how will you know they killed the GF's target? Thats what I'm saying. Do we know that the Mafia when they send in their hit list assign them specifically or is it just one big list of names?
[14:12] Qatol's AIM name: ok new question. can the mafia control which mafioso in linked to each hit?
[15:53] Chuiu's AIM name: no
[15:53] Chuiu's AIM name: that would be stupidly unfair
confirm it with him if you like.
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On March 18 2009 10:54 Ace wrote:1.) Who are you going to coordinate through? I keep asking this and no one can give a solid answer except "a Vigi" which as we've seen has a ton of problems and takes a lot of time. 2.) If we get someone that is 100% mafia, save the vigi hit and lynch the mafia the next day or on a double lynch unless it's like some ultra crucial timing that reduces mafia KP. Why waste a vigi hit? 3.) the mafia never have been able to control what clues they get, or how they get linked. What I was saying is that as the town you don't know who the mafia are so it's pointless to try and assume how the clues are done. 4.) Why can't the mafia fake medic/bg/dt? Just because the Godfather picked Vigi? Thats not making sense. It's in their best interest to make the DTs run out of rolechecks so they can just 1a2a3a the town in the midgame. How can the GF call the miss if he's faking Vigi? He can't miss 
1. You coordinate through the vigi that you JUST CONFIRMED with your mafia hit + cluecheck. Alternatively, you can coordinate through a medic/innocent combo from a save.
2. Why not use the vigi hit? Would you rather risk the vigi dying?
3. I have already addressed this.
4. They can. However, they show up to a check if they do it. This plan only needs checks if it is close to succeeding. Otherwise they can be used elsewhere.
GF can't miss, but a vigi can if the mafia hits the target too. So the GF can "miss" if he's faking vigi
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On March 18 2009 10:59 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote:
How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect.
Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance?
I argue that none of your "holes" matter at all.
If the vigi misses, oh well. We still hit a high probability target. We used a vigi the way a vigi should be used. This plan isn't something that MUST happen. It is an option. Furthermore, the vigi can still get confirmed if the town takes out the GF. Alternatively, the other vigi can step up and take HIS shot. Oops! He missed again. Except there are only 2 vigis. We get a free set of roleclaims for the vigi role. Is that really a bad thing?
If the vigi hits mafia, he gets to coordinate medic protection. Why would he put all of the medics on himself? He forces the mafia to play guessing games with KP. Last time I checked that was a good thing?
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On March 18 2009 11:11 Ace wrote:
1.) what CLUECHECK? The Vigi is going to show up the same night as Mafia codenames IF we even get codenames. So how are you going to know which is which? You can't. Then you still have to find the right clue. And you still are assuming that your highly suspect person is going to flip Mafia. If he doesn't thats it - it's over.
2.) The vigi wouldn't risk dying if none of us know who he is. I'd rather something happen in the day that makes someone plainly obviously mafia, Vigi hitting that guy, and then finding a way to prove it was him rather than going to the reverse option which is just terrible in this game.
3.) actually you haven't. We know the mafia can't control what clues they get - they never have in any mafia game. But since you don't know who the mafia are, you can't tell who the clues point to or how they are done. So when you throw the Vigi in there you just have one big mess and no way of figuring it out.
4.) how do you know the mafia are going to be checked by faking another role? Remember, the DTs are going to have to check every other list too, and this says nothing about how many rolechecks they will have left at that point. Faking blue roles is a very legit strat this game.
and once again - the GF will never miss. He's better off hitting if he wants the town's trust. If his target is Mafia, which he could never hit then he would have never fake claimed vigi to begin with and let the plan continue so they could just ruin it later down the line.
1. The cluecheck you use on the guy who claimed vigi and said that X target would die? Look for a clue near that kill? You have the kill + the guy who made the kill. How hard is it to the connect the dots?
2. The vigi is ALWAYS at risk of dying. Moreso since they help the town so much with their hits.
3. Again, I point out that we have the guy who claims to have made the kill, we have the clue ABOUT the kill, we have an ability which lets us verify that the clue was about that kill.
4. I don't. However, if they trigger one of the other conditions which requires a rolecheck (hitting an established player -> check that player and the medic), then they will be checked. Unless you are talking about some other list and I am missing something. In which case, please tell me where you're getting a list of rolecheck candidates.
If the GF doesn't miss, the cluecheck won't work out and we kill him?
On March 18 2009 11:15 Ace wrote:
There is no martyr this game, no vet,no jacks, and very few medics. There are only so many guesses to go around.
But ok, go ahead and ignore my warnings. If the vigi misses on a high probability target, now we have to hope we kill the GF and that the original vigi wasn't a normal mafia faking it. Then we also have to hope another vigi steps up, takes his shot, and that the guy he hit flips mafia thereby confirming him instead. but if he misses neither of them are confirmed, 1 person is surely lying if the GF claimed also, and then we trust BOTH of them even though we don't know which one is legit.
Yes, let's go with this idea.
Do you have a better one? You seem to be enjoying yourself at shooting down other plans. This plan has a chance to work and the consequences are not that bad for having it as an option.
Why would we trust both players? Your posts stopped making sense a while ago.
While I agree that there are only so many guesses, who is to say that the circle cannot confirm someone else in the time that there is a confirmed townie? If that doesn't happen, you keep the medic protection on the heavy side and see if the mafia want to fight through it. The mafia is sacrificing a lot of KP to try and take this person out.
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Pyrrhuloxia,
First of all, it seems to me that you are trying to find multiple clues to connect to 1 person off a day 1 post. This just won't happen. There might be 1 clue connection to a few of the mafia, but you won't find several connections. (And finding connections to day 1 clues is HIGHLY unlikely. The clues are intentionally harder on day 1 than they are on days after that.)
Second of all, at least your charging idea doesn't fit. In your video, pikachu's arms touch the ground when he charges forward. Unless I am seriously misinterpreting the day post, the mafioso's hands are behind his head THE ENTIRE TIME.
Third of all, you don't want to avoid the lynch on day 1. Even if the town just kills off an inactive, they are still better off than if they had not hit anyone.
Finally, a different mayoral lynch suspect has been proposed. MrBabyHands has accused Mandalor. If you cannot find a better candidate than Pika Chu, I ask that you at least consider his analysis on Mandalor, even if you think of it only as a way of testing his behavioral analysis skills. Haven't you noticed that some of the strongest players in the game (Ace, Ver) are already supporting him? While it IS a possibility that all 3 are mafia, I don't see lynching someone off bad/misleading behavioral analysis as worse than lynching someone off day 1 clue analysis.
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Ace, the way I see calling out vigi hits is like this. You are correct if the vigi tends to contribute to analysis etc anyways. However, SoG is correct if the vigi is more of an unknown that doesn't stand out/ act much in most games.
Less active vigi:
1.The person calls out their hit. We will assume it is a target discussed in the thread, because it would be kinda silly for a vigi to just hit someone randomly.
2. There are now 2 situations that can arise.
A) That target is mafia. In this situation, the vigi just added themselves to the mafia hit list, which means that someone else will not be hit. How is this a bad thing if the vigi doesn't tend to contribute anyways?
B) That target is town. In this situation, the mafia has 2 options:
a) They hit the target, negating the vigi hit. They have to kill off the vigi ASAP in this situation anyways, lest the vigi hit someone else.
b) They let the hit go through. In this situation, they have a little more leeway, but they cannot afford to have that vigi still alive when the GF dies. Again, not a big deal if the vigi doesn't contribute much.
Active vigi not on the list:
Should do the hit quietly. If this person wasn't a priority target for the mafia already, they are now and there aren't enough medics to cover.
Player on the list:
You should know what you are doing with this anyways. I'll trust your judgement
I believe the vigi should make a judgement call based on their activity levels in this game and previous games.
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Pyrr, the medics are unlikely to kill anyone who is seriously called out as a target in the thread. It is unlikely that a vigi will hit someone other than a serious target with their hit. If they do, it is unlikely they will hit anyone off that list. That list is likely where the medics will be. Medics stopping vigi hits is an unlikely scenario at best.
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Ace, semioldguy has pointed out that 2Ba cannot happen.
Therefore, I will only consider 2Bb. Which is worse for the town, a vigi missing a suspected player or that vigi waiting, allowing the town to lynch that suspected player, and having a possibility of dying while he waits? I just don't see why hitting someone we think has a high chance of being mafia hurts the town.
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On March 20 2009 10:06 Versatile wrote:
I'm not a fan of the vigi plan, as I think it hurts us more than it helps us.
First of all, it helps the mafia figure out roles.
Furthermore, what happens if a mafia false-claims vigi? obviously if a mafia is not hit we can't trust said "vigi", what happens afterward? does that person stay on the radar? or do we assume they are innocent from there on?
Or should the case be that any vigi who outs themselves would be expected to be hit by the mafia the very next night?
THEN AGAIN, why would the mafia target a vigi who has used his/her power, and is now essentially a green?
I think this plan just promotes the chance of false-claiming, the very probable killing of innocents and mafia trickery.
Why does it matter if a mafia false-claims vigi? We aren't trusting the person claiming vigi unless they hit red. We assume nothing about them if they claim vigi and hit an innocent. However, a suspect was still hit.
The mafia might target them, the mafia might not. It doesn't really matter.
The ONLY drawback to this plan that I see is that the mafia might avoid hitting them and hit someone else if they're aiming for blues. Innocents will die regardless. False-claiming doesn't help the mafia. In fact, it hurts them. If there are more claiming vigi than the role numbers say there should be, you have a short list of suspects.
Let me reiterate: vigis who miss get NO TRUST from the town.
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Let me be clear on this, since everyone seems more confused about medics protecting the target. That is not the reasoning here. The reason I want hits called out is to avoid DTs rolechecking the targets and to avoid vigis stacking hits. The second being by far the more pressing issue.
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Pyrr, while it is true they get their hit back, they can still die. In BC's game I think we managed to triple stack a hit one night. We then lost 2 of the people doing the hits and their kills were wasted.
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Ace, it DOES say that in the OP. Read the bold part right above the word ROLES. ONLY DT cluecheck and medic protection can be used night 1. Therefore, no vigi hit and no rolecheck. The vigi description tells you that they have 1 shot.
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On March 20 2009 10:09 dreamflower wrote:By the way, I feel I should point this out. It says in the roles post: Show nested quote +On March 11 2009 23:03 Chuiu wrote:
A special note on roles: All roles must be used at night and only the Detective clue check ability and Medic ability may be used on Day 1. Roles may be declared before night but they will not happen until night. Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else. I'm pretty sure all the medics know that they should be using their abilities tonight to protect valuable players. However, I'd like to remind detectives that they should use their clue-check ability. Specifically, they should be asking if specific sentences in the Day One posts are clues. At least this should help us figure out how clues are described in this game and give us a start for clue analysis.
Since everyone is just going in circles on a topic which DOES NOT MATTER right now, I'm going to point out just about the only recent post about something which DOES matter. Since we have established that day 1 clues are hard to find and interpret but DTs HAVE to use a cluecheck, I would like to point out that this is a very good idea.
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No, I argue that they use the other clue check ability. The "is this a clue?" ability. We have enough trouble even with THAT in day 1 posts. I don't think we should try to make a connection. That simply won't happen.
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On March 20 2009 11:46 JL13 wrote:
Okay, gonna stop posting about vigi's.
Caller posted some clue analysis right after the morning post was released. Forgot to mention his name in my earlier posts.
Again, we should NOT be trying to verify clue analysis. Based on past mafia games and the assumption that chuiu isn't giving us free mafiosos, we won't get anywhere with that. Let's just set up a list of things we think MIGHT be clues and get THOSE checked.
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EPT
