[T] MS Paint-Off Mafia - Page 9

On August 17 2017 11:52 CopCake wrote:


Are you Damdred? why are you answering his questions? In the quick topic they delegate you to be his secretary?

I mean Damdred voted for you as mafia.

On August 17 2017 11:49 Damdred wrote:
That's not tinfoiling that's thinking through all of thebdidderent scenarios

On August 17 2017 11:56 geript wrote:
But go on Copcake, please talk about how Town!TW can read 12 pages of filter in 3 minutes and come to the fact that FF must be Town and he only has 1 post of Hopeless he likes. I'll wait.

On August 17 2017 12:14 CopCake wrote:


I am defending myself, not him.

On August 17 2017 12:24 geript wrote:

I'm not sure on Damdred. He definitely can be scum, but he also can be town.

On August 17 2017 12:27 Jealous wrote:
Nevermind, paint got too complicated once I realized all of the contingencies and the limitations of TL's textbox. Let's look at it from the judge's perspective.



1. T+V. Let's assume this as the baseline, as this is what I imagine the judges would hypothetically be going for.

It would only make sense for T+V to claim in this scenario. The vig shot could almost never be used as a bargaining chip to appeal when up for lynch, because that would indicate that the judges had chosen someone to give it to then changed their minds about whether that person is townie or not and put them in the lynch pile. Wouldn't make sense.

2. S+V This is the worst-case scenario, the one that I overlooked in the previous analysis.

If S+V claims, then that would just be a bad/dumb move. It would be much more effective to save it and use it if suspicion ever DID fall on them from the judges and they thought they were going to lose the lynch vote, or if the game gets to the point where the judges are no longer present.

3. T-V. This would mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V.

This would only make sense if he was trying to put all the attention on himself, so that the judges could give the shot to someone else who would be under less scrutiny. This would also likely force scum to use a RB on him, as he currently has vest and with the shot in tow, it is a bad position for scum. However, I think that this is still not a very good play, as it would assume that the judges don't scumread him for the move, and it would assume that when the vig shot is actually given out there is likely to be a legitimacy argument which would be counter-productive. I don't think this possibility makes much sense. If the judges did scumread him for the move it would look like this:

4. S-V This would also mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V, and of course excluding his scummates.

This wouldn't make much sense to do because then the judges could just indicate that it is false by not including HF in the "Top 3" vote in the next cycle, effectively showing that "we don't care if this guy gets a vest or not because he is lying." That will show to everyone to stop listening to HF, and then he will be in the lynch pile the next cycle.



In short, I don't find any situation in which it makes sense for scum HF to claim; I also think that the move for town HF to claim without actually having it would be too much of a gamble. QED, HF is town and has the shot.

It was pretty hard for me to explain myself throughout all of this. If you disagree with my conclusions, please share your counterarguments because I could easily have just confused myself while thinking of the possibilities and interactions.

On August 17 2017 20:33 Holyflare wrote:
I'm going to shoot rels.

On August 17 2017 22:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Not to even mention when HF calls a shot on me EVERYTHING Jealous does is like "well why are you doing this HF????". THE DUDE IS TRYING TO SHOOT HIS TOP SCUMREAD!

On August 17 2017 23:45 CopCake wrote:


Tmi?

On August 17 2017 23:49 CopCake wrote:


Nope, I also dont know what is NAI

On August 17 2017 23:51 CopCake wrote:


What? How?