[N] TL Mafia LXXV - Page 54

On June 30 2017 00:45 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also, disformation's setup speculation leaves out the fact that there have been double KP for scum involved. So it actually makes a lot of sense that scum has quite a lot of investigatives.

Plus, there's this little host slip:

22)Eversince Killed Night 5 as Town Tracker

Makes it super possible that there is also a scum tracker instead of goon. Why write "town" tracker instead?

Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.

On June 22 2017 18:48 beentheredonethat wrote:


Observations:
1 Pretty much uncontested Grack wagon
2 Votes in hammer range on town: Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand
3 Irrelevant votes: raynpelikoneet, Palmar (starting with Rayn as hammer because Fecalfeast was originally part of the Grack wagon)
4 "Counter wagon" votes: Rels, Skynx, Chezitwo
5 Wasted votes: disformation, (Fecalfeast)

re: 1)

Having an uncontested wagon where no big discussion is revolving around pretty much means it's a town wagon. However, I think there was actually a lot of discussion in the past day, especially started by Rels. I am town reading Rels right now; he came out of the lurker shadows to actually talk. I also like his fighting with rayn and I'm super worried about rayn not being the town super hero that pushes people around. So Rels up, rayn down, although I gotta admit I haven't looked too deeply into the fight these two have.

My association between Skynx and Grack was obviously wrong. Nevertheless I find it super suspicious that Skynx chimed in, threw around some shade, later on pissed off, let the Grack lynch happen without really putting in work to push the sicklucker lynch. I am sure that there is scum on the Grack wagon and I am fairly certain that not all scummers are on that wagon; and Skynx' vote feels off. We have two mislynches as someone pointed out; so a vig shot (if available) gets more and more risky - but Skynx is a decent target. But I'm super super super afraid here.

Scum pool: Skynx, Eversince (voted super late each time)
Town should be: disformation (mehhhhhhhh, and only if he doesn't die this night lol, and town rage), Chezitwo (mainly based on D2), Rels (based on D3)
Meh: Palmar, Tumblewood, Blazinghand, ruxxar, Fecalfeast, VayneAuthority, sicklucker, rayn

I hope I didn't forget anyone.

re: 2)

These three players were basically the ones who sealed the Grack lynch: Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand. All of them will be moved to the scum pool for that:

Scum pool: Skynx, Eversince, Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand
Town should be: disformation, Chezitwo, Rels
Meh: Palmar, ruxxar, Fecalfeast, VayneAuthority, rayn

So without further ado, they come into the scum pool.

re: 3)

Same as 2), can just be scum chiming in.

Scum pool: Skynx, Eversince, Tumblewood, sicklucker, Blazinghand, Palmar, rayn
Town should be: disformation, Chezitwo, Rels
Meh: ruxxar, Fecalfeast, VayneAuthority

re: 4)

Rels pushing sicklucker matches what he did all D2. I don't think that this is scum pushing a second town wagon here. So if Rels would be scum, then sicklucker would most likely also be scum and we have a bus attempt to get town cred, which IMHO is a rather bad and useless bus because there's no way Rels gains towncred from this vote if sicklucker flips scum at any point. Skynx' vote on the other hand isn't as solid als Rels' vote. He not voting Grack (although he did say something about voting Grack, or am I wrong there?) is actually scum indicative here as he pretty much wasted his vote, putting it on unflipped instead of townflip. I'm certain Skynx is scum.

Chezitwo voting sicklucker - mehhhhhhhhhhhhh. Given how super eager he was to lynch Xata over Xata's cop claim, I don't know why he voted sicklucker here and kinda wasted his vote. I need to check the context of that vote as well as the reasoning. NAI imho but I'm not too sure. I don't have too many townreads so I'll keep him on the list "just cause" but I am indeed a bit paranoid.

re: 5) The only thing that comes to my mind is that disfo said early D3 that he'd end up voting Grackaroni anyways. Not sure what to make out of that but it striked me as weird.

Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.

On June 27 2017 06:17 disformation wrote:

why?