EPT[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 20
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Firstly, I think you might also have a little of the same tunnel syndrome that I sort of had against NU that you called me out for. Some of the reads that you posted aren't alignment indicative and read more like "I don't like how this person is playing". Maybe it makes more sense in your head and you didn't bother to explain everything fully given the sheer length of your post. I would like to draw attention to one thing: On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote: ... My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. ... You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them? There's a few more thoughts I had, but I'll share them afterwards. A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads. During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part. Earlier I posted an associative read where TW could be mafia with hopeless, because TW did not feel threatened at all at EoD from 3 people voting him, and hopeless deliberately missing his vote would explain it. If ExO+TW was the mafia team, that would also be reasonable, because NU was leaning town on TW, so there was no risk of hammering. I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Firstly, why on earth would cop spend half their time scumreading someone who they had a greencheck on? Near EoD1, TW said that he was so confident on cakepie and me being mafia, he didn't think he could possibly get lynched, and that's why he wasn't worried. But think about it. Look at cakepie's day 1 play and look at my day 1 play. Do you think it's at all reasonable to conclude that cakepie is mafia and I am mafia, with enough confidence that you would stake your life over it rather than claim your role? He was ready to stake his life over cakepie and me being the two mafia, yet, he didn't even push on us the entire day. That makes zero sense in every way. During the nightphase, he crumbed someone who he ended up shooting. That's exactly what mafia do when planning to fakeclaim. Now look at this recent post: On December 10 2016 16:04 Tumblewood wrote: posting at the standard escape-NK time defeats the purpose of baiting the NK by claiming. and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated the rest of the game. Look at where he criticizes cakepie for fake claiming at the very end of the night instead of a few minutes before. Yes, that's a valid criticism, but not from TW. Look at the way TW's been playing all game long. His play has absolutely no respect to granularity whatsoever, but he notices something so subtle. That doesn't make sense coming from TW. But what does make sense is that maybe people were pushing for scum to claim at EoN, so mafia were trying to snipe the cop. Cakepie fakeclaimed way too late and they missed their chance, which is how they noticed it. Please consider this reads, because TW is mafia fakeclaiming cop, and I have to depend on every single town voting him. If you are town please keep an open mind, consider these reads. If you have any questions, let me know. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 10 2016 19:18 Chairman Ray wrote: NeverUnlucky, I admit that some of the early game pushed I had on you were my own misjudgement. If you're town, it's vitally important that all three town vote together today. If any one of us is voting a different person, then it's either a no lynch or town gets lynched, and either way mafia wins. Please tell me your suspicions that I'm mafia, and I'll address it. But today, you absolutely need to vote TW. There's absolute no way he could be the real cop. Firstly, why on earth would cop spend half their time scumreading someone who they had a greencheck on? Near EoD1, TW said that he was so confident on cakepie and me being mafia, he didn't think he could possibly get lynched, and that's why he wasn't worried. But think about it. Look at cakepie's day 1 play and look at my day 1 play. Do you think it's at all reasonable to conclude that cakepie is mafia and I am mafia, with enough confidence that you would stake your life over it rather than claim your role? He was ready to stake his life over cakepie and me being the two mafia, yet, he didn't even push on us the entire day. That makes zero sense in every way. During the nightphase, he crumbed someone who he ended up shooting. That's exactly what mafia do when planning to fakeclaim. Now look at this recent post: Look at where he criticizes cakepie for fake claiming at the very end of the night instead of a few minutes before. Yes, that's a valid criticism, but not from TW. Look at the way TW's been playing all game long. His play has absolutely no respect to granularity whatsoever, but he notices something so subtle. That doesn't make sense coming from TW. But what does make sense is that maybe people were pushing for scum to claim at EoN, so mafia were trying to snipe the cop. Cakepie fakeclaimed way too late and they missed their chance, which is how they noticed it. Please consider this reads, because TW is mafia fakeclaiming cop, and I have to depend on every single town voting him. If you are town please keep an open mind, consider these reads. If you have any questions, let me know. There's some major problems here. He crumbs you as his night 1 check. If he's mafia as you say, he could very easily crumb somebody else he's going to kill. His crumb was very clever, its obvious to see when you're looking for it but none of us noticed it at the time. So why crumb you at the time he did? I cannot see a good reason for him to do that if he's scum (considering you aren't dead). Your argument about the votes on him might hold some weight if he ever got 3 votes at a single time (and was online to see them). But he never had more than 2 votes on him ever. And look at the way your post reads. You're not trying to convince anybody you are the actual cop. You've got no crumbs to indicate anything. Do you honestly expect me to believe you're the cop, when magically you claim to have checked both people who died? Both you and cakepie just scream scum grasping at straws right now. You want to throw as much doubt on anything and everything as you can. You're both making this long posts but are basically completely buddied. If NU or TW is scum I'm going to be blown away. Neither of you has even been willing to ever reconsider TW at any point during the game. Despite his effort, his posts count, his breadcrumbing. It's insane. You both keep coming up with these crazy associative reads and long-winded scenarios. And the most damning thing is: Why has your opinion changed on NU? You've never posted anything explaining why suddenly NU isn't scum. What happened? It's no longer valuable to stick to your 2 reads and nothing but all game? You and Cakepie are the mafia, and are going to lose this game. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 10 2016 10:04 Chairman Ray wrote: Still catching up on the thread, but here's a couple things I want answered: @cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim? @NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT? Notice btw CR isn't posting anything like this anymore. Suddenly have no suspicions of NU? After all you did was swear up and down he's mafia all game? scum scum scum | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
TW is in a comfortable spot because both cop!TW and scum!TW has the same optimal play today: lynch Ray. --- For scum!TW, this was the plan all along and it just got ridiculously easier because cakepie is an idiot. It was originally going to be a bit of an effort at least -- TW+ExO in concert, Act 3: working on NU while fighting against town!cake who will have to untunnel NU from scumming Ray. [Act 1: nolynch. Act 2: N1 setting up for D2] I regret that I only had time during N1 to get CR to untunnel NU. I had just about enough time to squeeze in a post urging NU to pleasepleaseplease reconsider CR. I need a NU who is willing to let me walk him through the hinking processes of an older cohort of players, and untunnel him off CR. Scum!TW is good. I misunderestimated the team because scum!ExO kept being so derp. -- For cop!TW, he obviously lynches Ray, but should be interested in helping the last three players {NU ExO cake} figure out the game. So, he's definitely reaching out. But is he really sincerely reaching out to everyone? I don't feel like he's being sincere with me. Based on the checks he has, he doesn't seem to be giving me a fair chance to work through cop!TW + idiotVTcake scenarios with me. I put together a scenario for scum?(CR+NU) but he quickly dismisses it, this forces me to move on to CR+ExO -- which I was going to do next anyway. But I ran into even greater difficulty on that scenario. Dozed off while trying to wrap my head around it. Here's what I had drafted: + Show Spoiler + Discarding the association based parts of ExO w/ TW scumteam, there are still the things that make ExO standalone scum, such as, quickly off the top of my head - #107 ExO's very forced scumread on TW that had to be binned - #112 Baiting cop claim - Very hard to pin ExO's position all of D1, or to answer questions (esp re: TW) - Lack of content in filter that reflects what he says his read progression is (swinging wildly on TW) But trying to make a scum!(CR+ExO) for TW is a very awkward exercise. - ExO is prepositioned N0 to go into D1 arguing for 100% cop claim - CR does his own thing with TW+NU - #96~#100 really don't make sense through (CR+ExO) goggles. - ExO knows TW is town but tries to make a forced case and blame - #112 baiting cop ... ... and I halt, because I start to see that it's going to be a lot of ExO being scum by himself, and very little ExO being scum with CR. Cop!TW happily pushes me from a rock to a harder place and gives idiotVT!cake nowhere to go. Just because NU can't be scum (reason: else he'd be dead D1), and ExO not scum (reason: derping would be a brilliant act from scumExO). so cakepie must be scum for fakeclaiming, or it is the superunlikely event that cake is a bloodyidiot.[spoiler] On December 10 2016 09:49 Tumblewood wrote: well my read on cakepie is 100% (okay, 99% in case he's really, really bad and/or trying to lose the game) because of the fakeclaim, but before he claimed it was more like a 90%. On December 10 2016 15:30 Tumblewood wrote: back at 90% on cakepie. this has potential to be, instead of mafia, the worst townie I have seen in a long time. [..] I'll give it a 95% chance cakepie is scum. exo, if you could just play well for a couple days and ease my doubts, that would be nice. I'm not even given a chance to play well for a couple days, cuz if I'm town I have to be stupid. On December 10 2016 15:36 Tumblewood wrote: I will try to make things as easy as possible for NU, who I predict is the axis vote in this case. but don't get your hopes up too much  On December 10 2016 13:31 ExO_ wrote: I 100% believe TW. I checked the places where he crumbed. Though it could've been fake, some of the letters it made no sense to cap. The amount of effort TW has put in, combined with the fact that both Cakepie and CR tried to get a train going on him (and failed) leaving him alive goes a long way to helping me believe him. Cakepie's and CR's claims are obviously bullshit. Cakepie doesn't say who he checked N0 or N1, CR checked the dead guys. Very convenient. NU looks like you are the decider here, and the only person other than TW I'm going to be concerned with. Let me know any questions you have more me, any analysis you might want, or anything you might find interesting. On December 10 2016 18:09 ExO_ wrote: TW look at cakepie. He's proposing to you literally everybody as a potential scum. It's wise to consider all possibilities, but he's proposing every scenario to everyone in an attempt to get people to move their votes. I don't see ExO giving me a fair shake. I see how things are. This is coming down to NU. For scum!TW, this was the plan anyways (but now needing less effort than before). I'm going to have to fight hard to earn back a town read, get him to untunnel Ray, and see why TW and ExO are scum. That's fine. It means I only need to speak to NU. This also means that NU is going to have demands for his attention from everyone. But it's okay. TW and ExO are going to keep bombarding him with "look at this, obv scum" type arguments. It's "face value" stuff that shouldn't take him long to process. I'm going to work to show NU a different type of argument. He's not familiar with it, but if he is still willing to listen to the bloody idiot who has in all likelyhood thrown the game, I will endeavor to show him what H1, Ray, and myself have been doing, and how we are thinking. It's about giving things finding and weighing scum and town motivations, and weighing scum and town explanations under good faith. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote: You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them?I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline. No, you misunderstand that quoted. I'm saying that I gimped #186 because I had associative reads in my head at that time but chose not to put them in #186. I wanted to give time for the number of interactions to increase. I wanted to continue pushing TW further into solid scum territory. Given time, if I am right about their association, I will get more material, and a stronger basis to associate ExO to solidscum!TW. Tipping them off that I'm on their tail may make them more guarded and harder to catch. At the time of #186, I had - the niggling feeling that ExO was evasive, especially re TW - the only ?solid content? was attacking CR's case (proxy defending TW) - the N0 interactions. Ray, I wish I had the luxury of time to engage with you, but my focus is going to have to be on working with NU. Unless TW and/or ExO extend good faith to me. But they're not doing so. Today was supposed to be me helping NU town you so we can lynch scum together, but now I have a different task. I'll clarify/correct you when you don't get what I'm saying or if you misunderstand what I wrote (like above). Things I tell NU, you can read and process as well. Otherwise you're on your own to figure stuff. But I don't think you need my help. I hope you'll do what you can. Maybe at some point NU will be willing to read you on good faith. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
CP: If you really are VT and your goal was to bullet-bait, why did you not rescind your claim immediately after the EoN post? You keeping your claim until the tables flipped and rescinding then is really strange and scummy. Rescinding after the day started wouldn't have affected your intent of bullet baiting as the NK was already done. Also, if your intent was to bullet bait, why would you post it at :59? You're not letting scum a lot of time to react, so your intent of taking the bullet as VT would be nullified. You talk about the possibility that I am a scummer with Ray, but you are town-reading us both. I'm stressing "talk the possibility" because you did not say why me or Ray would be scum individually. So, what about my play and Ray's play would make us scum? Why do you think that my read on Ray is not on good faith? Why do you believe Ray's claim over TW's? | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
You say you are 100% behind TW's claim. How confident in % are you in your reads of me, Ray and CP? How do you explain TW scum-reading his green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with his green-check and not doing a case on who he scum-read and ended up checking? Similarly to CP, day 1 you said that I could be scum, but never really got in detail there. I found it suspicious that you said that you wish that I were here more when I had been pretty active before that day, yet, you had never engaged me. It felt like a back-stab ie you TR me when I'm here and start discussing the possiblity of me being scum when I'm away. Why did/do you think I could be scum? Please tell me why you think CP is scum. | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
Same question I asked ExO re: "How do you explain scum-reading [your] green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with [your] green-check and not doing a case on who [you] scum-read and ended up checking?" | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
Who do you think is scum with TW? You said you thought ExO, CP, and H1 were town yesterday, and now you are town-reading me (?). So who's scum and why? All your arguments for you being cop are that TW is not cop. Why are you cop? Why tf would you have checked Koshi aka the guy with the highest % of chances to die N0? | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
And how did you go from 'NU scumslipped' to NU may be town? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 11 2016 00:03 NeverUnlucky wrote: CP: If you really are VT and your goal was to bullet-bait, why did you not rescind your claim immediately after the EoN post? You keeping your claim until the tables flipped and rescinding then is really strange and scummy. Rescinding after the day started wouldn't have affected your intent of bullet baiting as the NK was already done. Also, if your intent was to bullet bait, why would you post it at :59? You're not letting scum a lot of time to react, so your intent of taking the bullet as VT would be nullified. The whole thing was a terrible idea and poorly executed and I didn't even realized I had fucked up royally until it was far too late. Not rescinding after the day started was because I had an awareness that TW could fake?claim naive cop whose plan was flawed due to focusing on conftown to him, the cop, if he can live long enough. By process of elimination from my reads, Ray would have to be the real cop. I was worried about VT NU in cop?TW vs cop? situation so I stayed until Ray was in. Of course, this was all before I realized that I'd fucked up royally. Another thing is, I was trying to figure out if the NK was a (somewhat) confident bluesnipe, or a shaky bluesnipe, or not a blusnipe at all. Because I was mainly thinking about that, it took a while for me to realize my huge throw. --- On December 11 2016 00:03 NeverUnlucky wrote: You talk about the possibility that I am a scummer with Ray, but you are town-reading us both. I'm stressing "talk the possibility" because you did not say why me or Ray would be scum individually. So, what about my play and Ray's play would make us scum? Context is important: I'm willing to be wrong about my read on TW. I'm willing to make a good faith effort to look at the possibilities if cop TW and idiot VT cake with horrid horrid reads. NU+CR -- I have strong town reads on both of you individually. So I'm left with trying to do an association narrative first, and then perhaps I can revisit it later, untunneltown you guys, and use the narrative to help me find things to scum either of you individually. TW shoots it down very hastily because he towns you. [for scum!TW, this is part of his scripted act] The next thing I do is to look at the other possibility: CR+ExO. I can start with the parts where I individually scum ExO. But the narrative just doesn't come together and I get very bogged down. --- Why do you think that my read on Ray is not on good faith? Because at early D2 I don't think you've had the chance to re-eval him for EoD1 / early N1 yet. Or you're not interpreting it correctly. Ray makes a good faith effort to understand ExO and explain himself to ExO. In contrast, ExO doesn't make a good faith effort to listen to Ray. I'll also admit I that between posting about ExO+TW and getting CR to untunnel you, I didn't have time to check your case on CR and wrongly assumed it was still in OMGUS place. But early N1 was very strong CR TR for me and I was very alarmed that you had him top of the lynch. --- Why do you believe Ray's claim over TW's? Firstly obviously because I TR Ray and SR TW. Also, the associative read I have for TW+ExO gets stronger and stronger the more either of them posts.
Then, there is the contrast between two groups of people. 1. Those who are willing to take the time to look over the possibilities and weigh them, and willing to untunnel on good faith and consider evidence that might show that they are wrong about something. Willing to change their mind. 2. Those who quickly accept or dismiss things on prima facie evidence. Quickly pick the option they like and don't stop to consider the alternatives. In before I get accused of being a hypocrite since I tunneled all of D1 + N1 -- look at EoD1. I pressure vote and let TW defend himself, and unvote once he leaves. I was tracking on phone in bed and not evaluating him yet. Then I looked back at it out of the heat of the moment. As for me tunneling for all sorts of "shitty reasons", and "pick the option they like and don't stop to consider the alternatives." I'll discuss that next. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 11 2016 01:09 cakepie wrote: I was worried about VT NU in cop?TW vs cop?Ray situation so I stayed until Ray was in. ebwop: cop?TW vs cop?Ray. Additional elaboration: I can use my towncred to pass the cop baton to Ray when every claim is in. Including in case for some weird reason ExO wants to claim too. So I waited for everyone. | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 11 2016 00:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: TW: Same question I asked ExO re: "How do you explain scum-reading [your] green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with [your] green-check and not doing a case on who [you] scum-read and ended up checking?" it would have looked weird to act like everything was ok with 1der, because for a townie he looked preeeetty scummy. for the same reason, it would have looked like TMI if I had acted like I knew 1der was town when as VT I would have probably been calling him scum. I checked ray because I was uncertain about him, which was partially caused by the fact that I never organized my thoughts about him. initially I planned to get to everyone but making large cases burns me out fast. hope this clears it up for ya | ||
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
The associative read you've made makes sense to me, but like all associative reads, it doesn't really mean much until either TW or ExO has flipped. Ie it makes a lot of sense if we know that either TW or ExO flipped red/is red, but making assumptions without that information is going too far. | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
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NeverUnlucky
Canada1622 Posts
On December 11 2016 02:09 Tumblewood wrote: just catching up now it would have looked weird to act like everything was ok with 1der, because for a townie he looked preeeetty scummy. for the same reason, it would have looked like TMI if I had acted like I knew 1der was town when as VT I would have probably been calling him scum. I checked ray because I was uncertain about him, which was partially caused by the fact that I never organized my thoughts about him. initially I planned to get to everyone but making large cases burns me out fast. hope this clears it up for ya Not entirely. Why would you start by casing your green-check? If you're limited on time, you should be keeping him for last as you know his alignment as cop and not CRay/me. What do you think of cakepie and CRay's reasons to TR H1 since you find him scummy? Do you think they are fabricated/TMI? | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On December 11 2016 02:17 NeverUnlucky wrote: Not entirely. Why would you start by casing your green-check? If you're limited on time, you should be keeping him for last as you know his alignment as cop and not CRay/me. What do you think of cakepie and CRay's reasons to TR H1 since you find him scummy? Do you think they are fabricated/TMI? when I started I thought I would get to everyone anyway so it wouldn't matter. which was silly. but I was fine missing ray because I knew I could get his alignment via copcheck, and I was (am) nearly certain on you. I don't remember why cakepie and ray were TRing 1der in D1, so I will look into it | ||
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