EPTLets get this started.
Edit: or /replace
whatever is most fitting
Newbie Student Mafia XXIII
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Lets get this started. Edit: or /replace whatever is most fitting | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Haven't really been following the game very closely so give me until later today to get caught up and whatnot. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Tempted to start out by giving ptmc a quick and dirty townread for that little series of posts on pg 40 though. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
You guys got some great interactions from Lunatic, and based on them I think we can be nearly certain that Skynx, Rels, and DandelH are town for the way they started pressure on Lunatic. Stutters also kinda got spewed town, though tbh I kinda doubt his early game play comes from scum anyhow. Calix also brought up some stuff early on about Lunatic, but the associative read here isn't as strong as the others. I'm tempted to think Calix is town for other reasons though. Oh and On September 27 2016 20:53 Tictock wrote: Ok almost done with other stuff and I'll sink a couple hours into reading. Tempted to start out by giving ptmc a quick and dirty townread for that little series of posts on pg 40 though. That instinct was spot on. I think I've also got a decent scum read based on associative stuff with Lunatic, but I want to get fully caught up before I get into that. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 26 2016 06:18 Jealous wrote: Xan - it's awkward for me to look back on my phone to make sure that it was him trying to create a second train, but if it was indeed him I'd have to say it seems like a stupid thing to attempt so openly and at this juncture. Stupidity isn't necessarily AI but in theory, taking votes off Lunaticman and creating the potential for shennanies (which are popular on TL and thus unfortunately not always AI)... Could be a dumb scum move. If it was not Xan who did this, attribute the same reasoning to whoever else it was that initiated this thought, and apologies to Xan. Jealous can you restate this for me, or give me an updated version of what you were trying to say here? Kus I can't figure out what you are trying to say here. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Mafia very rarely call out their teammates like that so early, even if it was somewhat throwaway. You are right he never pushed Lunatic very hard, so it's not so weird that he doesn't mention him in that big post you quoted. Besides that post is overall actually pretty decent with the points he brings about DYH. I also have a hard time buying that one of Luna's scum mates would offer themselves up like you are implying while also making a halfway decent case on someone at the same time, and never try to cash in on any bus potential. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Now I don't get to feel so original. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I think Xatalos is scum. Reading through the game I had the distinct impression that he waited as long as possible to discuss Lunatic, and when he did was always very wishy-washy about it. This was the post that first made me raise an eyebrow. On September 24 2016 22:14 Xatalos wrote: Probably the worst post in the game so far (and definitely the worst of the opening posts). It's a wishy-washy suspicion riding on already existing suspicions. Pretty much the safest possible suspicion to make as scum, and leaves you with plenty of options to proceed (vote for him if it gains steam or forget it if not). Even the tone is so passive and uninvolved.. This was well after Lunatic's entrance and after he had fallen under some pressure. I suppose part of this is simply a "What game is he reading?" sort of reaction because this was far from any of the posts that I found interesting. What really struck me though was that this post implied that Xat had caught-up with the game, but besides asking Rel's his opinion and talking about blues there is literally no mention of Lunatic's posts until here. Which is especially Ironic given Xat was just accusing Skynx of having "no real stance on Lunatic events?" and that was literally my first thought about him while reading. It's worth noting his later posts as he decides to vote Lunatic as well. + Show Spoiler + Sorry not 100% these are in order, these start on pg 3 of Xata's filter On September 25 2016 21:05 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, that whole situation seems pretty stupid from any perspective. No reason to out a blue read in any form as town (even in the form of a non-reasoned strong town read -> pretty obviously a blue read), but no reason to start talking about that as scum either (just putting negative attention on himself for no reason). I guess it was some panic decision under pressure. Maybe leaning scum after all because why would he panic so much as town under a little pressure? Hmmm. Well, let's say he would be a lynch candidate, definitely over Stutter. On September 25 2016 21:10 Xatalos wrote: But why did you say that Stutter was a strong town read in the first place without any reasoning? Isn't that the same as claiming that he's potentially a blue in your opinion (from scum perspective)? Granted, it could also be a complicated meta reason or something, but having a blue read is often the reason if someone doesn't want to say his reasons for a read. And then why reveal the blue read so quickly anyway under a bit of pressure? It's just... pretty much a disastrous chain of events, especially if you're town and correct. It's also disastrous if you're scum, so... Just why? On September 25 2016 21:15 Xatalos wrote: On second thoughts, I can think of two potential scenarios where those events would make some sense. I think the scum scenario makes a bit more sense, given that he's a newbie. I'll wait a bit more before saying them out loud. On September 26 2016 02:16 Xatalos wrote: Huh. Yeah, I wanted to see some more posts before revealing my thoughts on Lunatic, but doesn't seem like anyone is really posting... So here are the two scenarios that I could imagine earlier: 1) Scum: He was trying to gain some easy credibility by pointing out a town read based on actual reasoning (blue read on Stutters after bluehunting him, as scum tend to bluehunt more often than town). Then he went into a bit of a panic after he got pressured for not reasoning his read and immediately claimed the blue read, which doesn't make much sense as town, but makes a bit more sense as scum since he wanted to relieve the pressure on him ASAP. In hindsight the play was a mistake (claiming Stutters was town without saying the reason), but it would make some sense from scum perspective at the time of doing it, especially since he's a newbie. 2) Town: Actually it was all a big WIFOM play as town to gather reactions and confuse scum bluehunting. However, this seems less likely since he's a newbie and still hasn't claimed anything of this sort despite lengthy posting on the topic. So all things considered, him being scum makes quite a bit more sense IMO. On September 26 2016 02:21 Xatalos wrote: Well, actually there's also a third scenario, where he's town and simply messed up by making a blue read, including it in his read list for some reason (without specifically saying that he thought he was a blue) and then saying it out loud in the heat of the moment. I guess that's a bit more likely than the scenario #2 after all since he's a newbie... But scenario #1 seems the most credible one, I guess. Hm. Any opinions? On September 26 2016 02:25 Xatalos wrote: Meh, not totally sure, but I think he still seems a bit worse than DanelerH atm. As for others, can't say I've found anything especially suspicious otherwise. Stutters' thing against Soul still confuses me. As for Jealous, I guess he could be scum, he's been pretty passive/blendy, but nothing really jumps out as scummy from him that I've noticed. There is a lot there, the stuff that I noticed was just how hard of a time Xata had calling Luna scum, he seems like he really wants to try and defend him in some of these posts, yet just can't quite do it. It reads exactly to me like a mafia who realizes he needs to bus and over-elaborates theread on his mate. It's weaker, but I also get the distinct impression that around the time of the quote from the top of this post (around pg 14) that Xata was kinda drawing attention away from what was some mounting pressure on Lunatic. That might be a bit of confirmation bias there though. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I think I can also see why DYH has gotten some votes today, and I did notice some similar associative stuff with him as I did with Xata, just not as pronounced imo. Also I'm kinda confused why Super got killed unless he started going ham during the night. If there isn't some crazy obv town series of mega posts he made at night then I'd put money on him being killed due to remaining scum being vets. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
People I haven't really mentioned yet. Scott, prob town but kinda null. Rels is a bro and I kinda agree with the read he had on Scott earlier. He's saying stuff that makes sense and is easy to follow, so prob town. Jealous, also pretty null. Something in the back of my head is telling me he is town, but I don't know where that voice got it's info. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 26 2016 09:00 DoYouHas wrote: Just no. It is literally the opposite. If I was actually scum this would be how I would hedge on a ML. You don't hedge on a "textbook" bus. If I had ignored Luna up until this post then maybe, maybe you would have a point. But I didn't. I had already engaged the topic with Jealous last night. I had already put him in my lynch list today. I have no reason to weaken my stance on Luna that fits a mafia motivation. Given I don't really recall much from DYH regarding Lunatic, I'm gunna see if his filter backs up this post. I think these are the posts he means? On September 25 2016 10:16 DoYouHas wrote: It is absolutely anti-town. Do you think it is bad play or scum? On September 25 2016 10:53 DoYouHas wrote: So is it bad enough that you would want to lynch him or do you currently have a stronger scum read on someone else currently? On September 25 2016 11:09 DoYouHas wrote: @Jealous, are you in and out? Why is it taking you this long to respond to me? I mean I guess you could say DYH is scumleaning Lunatic in these posts, but he really isn't discussing anything. In fact it's more like DYH is pushing Jealouse for not pushing Lunatic more? Near lynch we get this On September 26 2016 03:45 DoYouHas wrote: You have Giacomo! (so long as you are leading against DH, Luna, or Jealous) On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote: Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up. DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared. Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that. Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum. Am I crazy or does it look like all these reads are based around Lunatic? The quotes above are all the ones made regarding Jealous, so it looks like the non-commital stuff he's talking about is Jealous' lack of pushing Lunatic. So yea, this is a pretty weak defense. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 26 2016 19:40 Superbia wrote: I would read stutters independently. It could be a tmi read or it could be defending a team mate. Take the wine for what it is. On September 26 2016 19:41 Superbia wrote: You can read how stutters approaches luna but would not recommend vice-versa. Lol well ok this isn't what I had in mind before, but I think I can actually see why Super got killed. Hardly playing, not being scumread at all, being helpful like a boss. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote: I went through the Lunatic trainwreck again and tried to objectively sum up what happend chronologically, open for "unbiased" read: + Show Spoiler + Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie" Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons" Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1 Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention" Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous) DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later" Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels" Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy" DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read. Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read Rels agrees Xatalos reacts with On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see. Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated. Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1 Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd" Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread After a short discussion, where I give my reasons why I think a push on Lunatic is a good thing, Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it Lunatic calls me out because ptmc "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own" DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him. Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic. SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today" Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic Stutters again asks about SEQ Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw. Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1) Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate Lunatic fluffs some more Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town Xatalos questions this logic Rels votes Lunatic Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well DYH votes Lunatic On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Luna Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. Next post, scott votes Lunatic On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote: Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him. Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever) Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott Superbia doesn't like his two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo) ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work And my comments for it, marked in red stuff i think is scummy, in green things i think is towny (obviously in the light of the successful lynch) with some comments centered where i needed to say some more  + Show Spoiler + Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie" Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post this is maybe not red, but at least weird Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons" Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1 Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention" Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous) again, at least weird, since it had obviously already sparked discussion DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later" Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels" Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy" DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read. Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic I guess this is Lunatics blue role claim on stutters working out as intended? Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read Rels agrees Xatalos reacts with On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see. Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated. Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1 Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd" Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread After a short discussion, where ptmc gives his reasons why he thinks a push on Lunatic is a good thing, Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it Lunatic calls ptmc out because he "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own" DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it Mafia feeling out the waters if it is bussing time? Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him. Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic. SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today" This looks so much like bussing, especially with him ignoring those posts previously Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic Stutters again asks about SEQ still no word on lunatic except the earlier "no comment" Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw. Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1) Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate Lunatic fluffs some more Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town Xatalos questions this logic Rels votes Lunatic Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well DYH votes Lunatic i will not give green "points" from here on for voting lunatic, since the train has reached critical mass already On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Luna Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. Next post, scott votes Lunatic On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote: Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him. Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever) Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott Superbia doesn't like scotts two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo) ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work Take home message says scott had access to very bad posts by Lunatic way before he goes afk, but choses to ignore them. Only when the train has become unstoppable for mafia he "revisits" them and now they are strong enough to lynch for. Other reads from the Lunaticman-Lynch: solid town: DanelerH Calix town lean: Jealous Rels SEQ superbia (for actually noticing scott) inconsistent: Xatalos Skynx scum leans (lynch all day err'day) Scott, stutters, dyh Dude... ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/obQwq1S.gif) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/XLlY4Ns.gif) Though I'm not sure I agree with all your conclusions that is a mountain of effort there. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 26 2016 23:53 Superbia wrote: Wake me up when we've won or the game becomes interesting. Rest well sweet prince. I think in memorandum I will adopt his mantle on laziness for a few hours. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 28 2016 09:25 DoYouHas wrote: Hey guys, I have been slammed at work this week. I will probably have at most 1-2 hours to look at this game between now and deadline. Many of you want to lynch me, I get it. It might even be for the best as my time really won't free up until this weekend. I apologize for not being on top of my time management to play this game the way it should be played. That being said, I'm really not going to get into defending myself but I will try to get out a few reads before you all send me packing to try and not leave the town with nothing. If I am unable to get anything out before the deadline tomorrow GL town, ya still got this .Though I'm pretty inclined to think this post comes from mafia myself. We have: - A defeated attitude - An appeal to town sympathy - Claims a lack of time, possibly his last post 8 times out of ten this kinda post comes from mafia imo. I am certain however, that this type of play would make Giacomo cry. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I'm thinking a DYH lynch is probably the best lynch today, I still think Xat is scum as well but I need to check a few things and tbh he is at least staying fairly active so he can live another day. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
His opening play seems to be purposefully drawing attention to himself and that's not really something mafia does. Lunatic almost certainly spewed Stutters town. In my experience mafia has a hard time explaining townreads sometimes because they just know someone is town, and sometimes mafia defend town that look bad just so they look better when that person flips. This is almost certainly what happened this game, Lunatic saw Stutters under attack and decided to throw him an easy townread which came under fire and he couldn't back it up. Is stutters play very towny in it of itself? Not terribly, but I don't see what his game is if he is scum playing this way either. I'll make a note to give his filter a once over later though. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Noticing that he never talked about Lunatic at all and just dropped a vote on him with hardly a word as to why. His only real push was about SEQ (my slot) taking Xat's self vote stuff seriusly. Couldn't help but notice this too which is a bit odd, these are in order right after each other. On September 25 2016 14:07 Stutters695 wrote: Nah, I think we're cool now. Can't tell for sure until I get home and actually have a pc, but your last posts make me feel better. On September 25 2016 16:24 Stutters695 wrote: He didn't quote it, he said something like the post above this is good. What are your thoughts on SEQ? Idk who is is talking to, but it's a bit odd to me that he would ask for thoughts on someone he just resolved his issues with. Stutters also has basically zero new content today... Ok, I might actually approve of this counter-wagon despite my own inclinations. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote: SEQ/Tictock Voted for Lunatic, but otherwise ??? I refuse to believe you have literally no read on me. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 29 2016 03:29 Xatalos wrote: For the record, I agree that my earlier case (not the piece of text I just wrote) on Skynx was a bit crap, now that I look at it. It didn't really convey well what I thought about him. It's better to just ignore my earlier case and look at his actions directly with the question in mind "what if he was trying to save Lunatic from getting lynched D1?" So even given this, and keeping the same question in mind, you still find Skynx more likely to be scum than DYH? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 29 2016 04:07 Tictock wrote: So even given this, and keeping the same question in mind while reading DYH filter, you still find Skynx more likely to be scum than DYH? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I'm probably not going to invest a bunch of time into this atm. I think we are in a solid place. Will check in after this next dungeon run in WoW, there might be something I need to look into. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On September 29 2016 05:17 Xatalos wrote: At least you read it  To be fair I did read your WoT, or most of it. I just thought the majority of it was crap. The reads feel a bit off, like Rels should be much more obv town based on his pressure on Lunatic. I obv disagree about Skynx. The whole team thing is just bad imo. I'd probably be willing to write it off as a bad approach but the way you use the team stuff to throw out DYH feels off to me. | ||
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On September 29 2016 06:11 DoYouHas wrote: Iunno, gets em out faster but in 5 posts instead of 10? Because I am, that's why. Next 2 are harder. I haven't paid much attention to skynx or scott this game. Like it's weird that you are putting out thoughts on 2 ppl at a time when you are just typing these one after another. You say you haven't paid attn to scott of skynx this game but basically you have to think one of the two of them is scum or else your reads are pretty meaningless. Also you had Skynx as town in a list post before so obv you had thoughts on him at one point. | ||
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On September 29 2016 06:23 Calix wrote: How is typing them out two at a time relevant to anything? Is this going anywhere? I'd rather leave the DYH-answering-questions thing until he's finished with his thoughts. Don't want to distract him too much from saying something first. At this point if he has anything to say he'd better be typing it up to say it. We are 30 min till lynch. | ||
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On September 29 2016 06:34 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Scott I've been thinking about Superbia's kill. There are 4 reasons I can think of for it. 1. Medic dodge. 2. Town is off track, didn't want a fresh vet voice changing things 3. Superbia is on right track 4. WIFOM salad #1 is obviously the case. With their RB gone they aren't going to target Calix (most townread person N1). #2 is iffy. Obviously taking out a fresh voice in Superbia accomplishes this, but he isn't heavily townread and he has stated repeatedly that he was going to be lazy this game. #3 is the most likely case. After losing your RB the first night you can't risk someone with correct suspicions putting you down 0-2. Most common reason to kill someone, also makes the most sense from the mafia perspective this game. #4 is very unlikely. There are too many people who have established themselves decently as town, too many people more productive than Superbia. Wha.. Was this supposed to have something to do with your vote? And you say 1 is obv the case, and 3 is the most likely case... | ||
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On September 29 2016 06:40 Jealous wrote: I'm starting to WIFOM over the fact that DYH showed up just before EoD when the train is on him. Like, would a scum normally do this? I don't think I would lol. The reason it's WIFOM is because maybe he is trying to make people doubt his scumminess last second and shenanie? I'm locked in but I'll feel a little bad about it if he flips town ): Depends on the person. Depends on the situation. I'm actually gunna go ahead and say DYH is 100% scum here though. Mostly because he stopped doing his read posts as soon as we questioned it and changed gears. There is town giving thoughts, and there is scum trying to look like they are productive. | ||
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On September 29 2016 06:51 Calix wrote: The whole lack of a survival instinct thing was giving me pause because scum are more likely to vote for any opposing wagon so that they live, but that could be a strategy for CFD possibilities as said earlier and you're right, your lynch is the best move atm. Survival voting is often picked up on around here and starting new wagons tends to be considered a town trait. Least imo. | ||
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On September 29 2016 15:05 ptmc wrote: So stutters is modkilled at EON? Idk, it's probably best not to try to anticipate host action but given his last post was about 2 days ago... it's possible. It's probably noteworthy that Stutters didn't seem very interested in lynching DYH, seems he was scumreading Scott and Dane more. | ||
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On September 29 2016 21:08 Tictock wrote: It's probably noteworthy that Stutters didn't seem very interested in lynching DYH, seems he was scumreading Scott and Dane more. Idk, this was probably just something that caught my eye. Honestly his filter doesn't have much to say, and there is nothing to explain or support any of these D2 reads from him. I think I'm actually overdue for a proper reads/list post so I'll do one of those for EoN. Tbh though I'm not looking forward to reading some of the longer filters. | ||
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On September 29 2016 23:41 Jealous wrote: I felt guilty because DYH was coming off as town in those last posts, truly trying to help town and all that... it was at the point when it was obvious no one would take their votes off him and everything he had to say was futile, he kept posting for town... hence the guilt ;-; You know it does seem a bit odd that if your starting to think someone might be town enough to feel guilty about their flip that you'd post that you are "locked in" rather than suggest a vote switch. | ||
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On September 30 2016 02:27 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry guys. I got really busy. Just a warning this time. Won't be modkilled. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Q8WutTA.gif) | ||
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No further comment at this time >.< | ||
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On September 30 2016 06:40 ptmc wrote: Is there NK analysis against scott? Because sup scumread him? But that definitely is not the main aspect of scotts scummyness, see his interaction with lunatic for instance. I don't see how anything DYH posted suggested scott is scum. | ||
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Town: Calix - + Show Spoiler + I started to review Calix's filter but after about a page and a half I think I have to conclude that Calix is just obv town. Entire play just seems clear and sensible, and is rather active to boot. I'm impressed with how care much care Calix takes with making reads as well, seems to be carefully considering town and scum mindsets. Calix is also almost 100% town based on the early vote and push on Lunatic. When I was first reading the game I picked up on a couple of posts where it looked like Calix was hedging and didn't give much credit for lynching Lunatic. Reviewing now I see that Calix's inital reaction was what made me thing that but quickly changed to a scumrean reviewing things further. Really unlikely that scum changed gears that fast on a teammate and votes 2nd on the wagon. Rels - + Show Spoiler + Pretty much the first person to pressure Lunatic. Even if I thought Rels would bus a teammate so early I would never believe it would go down like what happened. He is French, but we really can't hold that against him. ptmc - + Show Spoiler + Mostly just sticking with my initial gut read on this guy, but his effort and investment level pretty much never comes from newbie scum. Townlean: Jealous - + Show Spoiler + Kinda a toneread, kinda me being lazy. Honestly even skimming his filter I don't see much that really sways me one way or another, but I do sorta like/agree with his reads. Skynx - + Show Spoiler + I guess I might just be reading Skynx via meta here, but I still think he is likely town. Calling out Lunatic's open right off the bat feels weird if they are scum together, and while Skynx wasn't really pushing Lunatic his posts read like he is just dropping thoughts on all parts of the game. Meta wise I just think Skynx feels really relaxed and is freely sharing thoughts. It's been awhile but the last time I saw him play as scum he came off pretty awkward and his reads weren't very organic. Pretty much the opposite of what I see this game. scott31337 - + Show Spoiler + I'm not sure I have anything new to add on Scott, he's town from the way he is approaching the game reacting to stuff and posting his thinking. He rarely posts more than he is, and as scum tends to have far less actual content in his posts. Null: DanelerH - + Show Spoiler + I could actually go either way on this guy fairly easily. On the one hand he seemed to be pushing Lunatic rather early on, and I thought his case on stutters in #691 was decent. On the other his vote on Lunatic was pretty late despite being so early on the push, he's made two cases but otherwise has little substance to reads, both votes are just hop on's (idk how to say it better). Scum: Stutters695 - + Show Spoiler + I think at best I can consider Stutters a scum favored coin-flip. My gut still wants to read him as town though. I still kinda like his opening play, he seems carefree not afraid to draw attention and rub people the wrong way. The stuff with Lunatics post is there, but is is pretty WIFOM. Overall-though Stutters has very little contribution, his weak D1 push on SEQ was based on one observation that never went anywhere. He jumped on Lunatic wagon super late and with nothing behind it. He gets defensive at night and then has basically been afk without any real thoughts put out into the game. Xatalos - + Show Spoiler + I'm actually less sure that I was before, I'm just leaving him down here kus I'm not convinced he's town and I ran out of time for a proper re-read. Tbh though I'm not sure I have much faith in these scumreads my heart just isn't in them, right now Stutters seems like he's gunna force us to lynch him though since he's apparently back and reading the game but isn't playing. | ||
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On September 30 2016 07:02 scott31337 wrote: A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think? Help me remove my doubts on Xata being scum here. I'm not sure I followed your EoN read on him. Stutters isn't worth discussing until he does something (even if that something is go awol for 48 hours again). | ||
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Also should take a few min to reread Rels posts one more time. | ||
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Honestly scott I'm not sure where you are going with this. On September 26 2016 23:59 Superbia wrote: Also I have nothing really solid on stutters but I think he's town. Super wasn't scumreading Stutters? Also scanning over Stutters play in the game you linked he looks pretty different from this game. Biggest thing I'm noting is that Stutters played that game very much with the perfect info he had, he defended town and bussed his teammate fairly hard D2. It was pretty clear that he was trying to setup mislynches after his teammate flipped by association. He also doesn't seem to have a very hard time posting in that game imo. I'm not much of a meta-read guy so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in this since people change and games are different. Still I don't think meta supports Stutters being Mafia very well this game. | ||
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On October 01 2016 02:31 DanelerH wrote: Sorry, it's confidential for now... In all serious, though, I noticed a correlation between Superbia and Rels. They were both suspicious of Scott, which is why I started by questioning xem. Judging by Scott's answers, I feel like xe might be leaning Town. They were also both suspicious of you, so I questioned you next. Based on your answer, you're sounding less Town. Can you expand on what you thought was towny about Scott's response and what was scummy about Xata's? | ||
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On October 01 2016 02:55 Xatalos wrote: In any case, they should be both lynched over stutters every time. If stutters keeps getting votes, I'll probably need to share my other reason. But the first reason (Lunatic's scum->town-like reaction to stutters) is already pretty clear. Lets play a game... Just based on posts made from the start of this Phase, who would you vote between Scott/Skynx? At least a sentence as to why as well plz. | ||
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Thankfully I'm quite certain Calix is town so that is one large filter I don't need to review. | ||
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On October 01 2016 04:07 Xatalos wrote: Oh yeah, forgot this post. scott maybe. Didn't really like his post asking for what actions to take today from you (too consensus-blendy). His post against stutters was also a bit WTF (that's a reason to suspect him, like really now?). His reasons to suspect me were also pretty forced and sudden. Skynx didn't really do anything of note today. So yeah, scott has started to look worse lately. Maybe he would even be the safer bet at this rate. Why? Not sure that you've ever really given a proper scumread on Skynx. If my glance through your filter is correct that read started because of your team speculation post. | ||
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We are not lynching Stutters today guys, I get it but I am willing to go with my gut that he is town. I'm starting to think we should lynch Scott. | ||
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His push on Stutters seemed really out of place to me. He asked my opinion, then ignored my response to make a bad push on somebody who hasn't been around and everyone is scum reading anyways. A few other things feel like they are falling into place considering Scott as scum as well, but I'm still mulling things over. | ||
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##Vote: Scott | ||
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Gotta say though I find it a bit disappointing that there are basically no new posts and that nobody tried to review a guy with a 3 page filter >.< | ||
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The Case on Scott Just for a change of pace and to keep this post from getting unmanageable I'm going to link to posts rather than quote them directly, at least for the most part. Regarding Lunatic: Feel like I should just get the done first and get it out of the way. Scott first mentions Lunatic in #380 though he is pretty much just mirroring what has already been said about Lunatic. In the very next post Scott throws out doubts because nobody is defending Lunatic. Last we get #518 which is when Scott decided to vote for Lunatic. To me this post reads as though Scott is reluctant to lynch Lunatic, but has no better alternatives (this will get into my next point). So Scott parroted the concerns people had with Lunatic, threw out doubts, then voted Lunatic when there was really no other option. Also worth noting that after Scott posts #380 he has nothing to say about any other reads besides a post responding to stutters where he concludes SEQ was just under a null read. D1 Read's and Progression: Not quite the same as the last point, but related. I pointed out that Scott didn't really talk about his reads after #380, but before that he posted #307 where he townreads Calix and Rels, and scumreads Jealous and Dane. The problem here is that Scott gives no real indication of why he thinks they are scum, and these reads basically disappear after #380. In fact both Jealous and Dane later show up in #661 as townreads with no real mention of them in between. So basically besides what I already talked about with Lunatic, Scott has no read progression at all with his D1 reads. EoN2 Reads List: Reviewing Scotts filter I realized that his reads posted in #1076 don't really make sense given his progression. The biggest thing is the read on Xata, Scott had Xata as a townread in #661 and the only post relating to Xata I could find is Scott reacting to Xata's big "Possible teams" post. Problem is the read shift to scum here seems a bit exaggerated, Guy is pretty defensive, doesn't like to give up information unless forced (Don't give town a damn thing style) - and feel like he's trying to mislynch Skynx, since I'm either being really pocketed or he's town. He also in his "scum team" and other posts seem to leave me as low hanging fruit. I'm not gunna dig into this read much, besides note that it's odd that Scott accuses Xata of trying to mislynch Skynx. I will also make note for my next point that based on this reads list Xata is Scott's strongest scum read. Push on Stutters today: As I said before this was what first got me reconsidering my read on Scott. So coming into today Scott and I apparently have very similar reads and Scott asks me, On September 30 2016 07:02 scott31337 wrote: A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think? Which seems fine and resonable so I reply that pushing stutters is kinda pointless and ask him to talk to me about Xata. Scott still never responded to this. Instead Scott "starts to see the light" and makes the push on Stutters. This bothers me not just because scott asked my opinion and this was the opposite of it, but because Stutters is already super-low hanging fruit that is widely scumread. What really makes this push unlikely to come from town imo is just how bad the points Scott brought up where. The comment stutters made about playing with Xata in the past is so NAI I'm amazed Scott even tried to make a post about it (I suspect that post was made to give screenshots and make it look like scott was trying to dig into things). The stuff about the past game where Super vigged Stutters had no real connection to this game since Super townread Stutters and when I spent 5 min glancing at Stutters filter that game I thought it was pretty clear the play we see from Stutters this game is very different from that scumgame. Basically neither point Scott makes should suggest Stutters is scum, and reviewing the same stuff Scott did I came to the opposite conclusion. Whats amazing is that even when I say we aren't lynching Stutters and that I want to lynch Scott, here is his response. On October 01 2016 06:41 scott31337 wrote: If you all think Stutters is town and do not want to lynch him - it's fine. Him and Xatalos make the most sense to me though. Seeing TicTock go after me makes me sad though - We've been having in sync thoughts and I guess cuz I had a few beers and things started to make more sense now he thinks I am mafia. But I'm pretty sure he's town. I don't why this has happened (his 180) - I guess cause of my base case on Stutters? It was more that he hasn't done shit - I know the mafia game link was weak. I'll be back and forth - probably going out to eat though. Going to take it pretty easy today, I have a test tomorrow to take and I want a clear mind for it. Speaking of, I won't be here for deadline. No shits given if we don't lynch Stutters, no effort to push Xata, zero effort to read Xata better or read anyone else for that matter. Even admits his own point on Stutters was weak. Misc: Just a couple things I noticed that bug me. On September 27 2016 07:04 scott31337 wrote: Some one that may have been around after this post? Hmmm Could be lurkers too, I shouldn't think too much of it. Scott has pushed this a couple times as to why Super got killed. Scum didn't buy that post, nobody ever got fooled by that post. Even joking around I'm not sure why Scott would repeat this, but he did. On September 30 2016 07:03 scott31337 wrote: Also if there's a cop - remember there's a miller and a godfather, your checks can mean nothing. Who wants to bet Scott is the goon? Lol. Seriously though, this struck me as odd. I don't know why would town think to post this, but obv scum worried about getting checked would benefit from reminding any cop that there is some hate on his checks. I think that about covers it. I've got a bit more to say as I've got a pretty good running theory about who the last scum is as well, but I'll go ahead and save that for now kus it might get confusing. | ||
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On October 01 2016 19:20 Calix wrote: You're forgetting that the weekend's started. A drop in activity is only to be expected. I'm popping out in five. I'll look him over when I get back and I'll probably be around for EOD. Pfft, you people with lives... | ||
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On October 02 2016 01:33 Xatalos wrote: Hm, is anyone else around? I hope people will see the light about scott so that I won't have to tell my other reasoning on stutters. It would almost certainly be detrimental if I had to do that. I'm also totally down for a Xat lynch, this shit is so bad. Why the fuck would you continue to dangle and hold back info like this is beyond me, and especially at this point in the day. Besides it's not like you've done anything today Xat. | ||
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I'm changing my mind here anyways, I'm trying too hard to look for the outside chance when we have plenty of mislynches left to do this properly. Stutters needs to go. I think he actually has a chance to flip town, but he has to go since he has shown no interest in playing the game. We can deal with Scott vs Xata tomorrow when more people are around and active anyways. Besides Scott's outburst kinda makes me think he's town. Xata is actually who I should be pushing kus I really really think he is scum at this point, but I'm too lazy at this point to make another case. Also just seems like today is a bad day to do much at EoD with people not really around. So safety lynch on Stutters. Kus I think we would all sorta hate ourselves if he turns out to be scum and let him live any longer. ##Vote: Stutters | ||
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Lets watch! | ||
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On October 02 2016 05:06 Xatalos wrote: I'm sorry Xat, I just don't believe it's a coincidence Stutters shows up acting like he's got reads almost as soon as his counter wagon looses about the only steam it had going for it.This post actually changes some things. But ask yourselves: would scum stutters make this post? Or would town stutters? Everything he's said is just pulling shit off the top of his head. To answer that question, scum!Stutters would do anything he has to to stay alive right now. I mean I think the post he made right before that said he had to vote Scott kus surviving was pretty important. | ||
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On October 02 2016 05:14 Stutters695 wrote: I barely played and people here don't take stock in meta reads. It wouldn't do much good I'd wager. ANY WHY THE FUCK DO YOU SEEM TO KNOW WHAT XATA IS TALKING ABOUT!!! + Show Spoiler + This is rhetorical if you don't get that | ||
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On October 02 2016 05:16 Stutters695 wrote: scum!Stutters would have never let it get to this point lol. This type of town is the easiest to coast through unnoticed because of the activity level. The hypocrisy is so real right now... I'm leaving kus I'm not even being constructive anymore. I might consider looking at your posts if you flip town Stutters. I have a hard time believing you'll find anything worthwhile to say in 2 hours though. | ||
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![[image loading]](http://m.memegen.com/bpbgk6.jpg) + Show Spoiler + I feel like i heard that one before... On September 24 2016 07:46 Stutters695 wrote: I'm here and not scum. How disappointing. Anyway, as it stands I'd be all for a d1 Xata lynch. Pretty sure he's fooled me like the last 3 times he's been mafia and that's no good. Tell me more about these amazing meta-reads. | ||
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On October 02 2016 06:35 Jealous wrote: Both cases have pretty big holes imo, and both Scott and a stutters are doing a decent job of playing town coming towards eod. Overall, I'd have to say the case on Scott is marginally stronger, and I'm surprised Calix is defending him like this. Maybe Calix thinks her trains are always best trains, which I can empathize with. Anyway, I'm voting for what I see not what I presume. I am quite disappointed with this... Can you at least elaborate on what the holes in the cases where, and why Scott is stronger in your mind? | ||
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I really think a Scott/Xata team makes sense. Before you say this is a silly team as they called each other scum in the last phase, take a look at their posts. Scott's posts first started me on this line of thought, and it's why I flipped my read on him and wrote a case, so some of this is found in there. Simply put Scott did jack all with his read on Xata and instead posted bull about Stutters. The logic on Xata's scum read is the same (I'll talk more about it in his individual read). The weak bit here is that Xata was pretty willing to vote Scott in the end, so maybe not... In the chance that I'm totally on the wrong track with those two I really only have some tinfoil on Calix and Jealous to fall back on. It's really just a feeling I haven't looked into the idea much because it seems really out there. Mostly I mention this because this game has evened out, Town only has 2 mislynches before they loose, it's time to revisit townreads if only to find better reason to TR them. Calix - + Show Spoiler + Calix is a newcomer to this site, but is clearly very experienced with mafia. Everything I read her posts I feel like everything is being very carefully considered and weighed. Other than tone though I really only have the early vote on Lunatic D1 to backup this townread. Overall, even with the paranoia and tinfoil I mentioned, I'm pretty sure Calix is town. Pretty much who I expect to die if not me tonight. DanelerH - + Show Spoiler + Light poster, hopefully doesn't turn into another Stutters. I checked some stuff from him earlier and I just got townfeels from everything I saw. Reviewing things now I feel pretty confident he's town. Not only did he push Lunatic early on but the response from Lunatic def doesn't look like he's responding to a teammate. I really don't think he's mafia. ptmc - + Show Spoiler + I'm not sure anyone is even scumreading this guy. For a newcomer his play is highly engaged and impressive. His level of involvement and pushing his own ideas basically almost never comes from newbie scum imo. Jealous - + Show Spoiler + I checked some stuff from him earlier and I just got townfeels from everything I saw. I guess it's mostly tone that has had me townreading Jealous. I've kinda lost the townfeels lately so a filter review is in order here (not sure I've actually done one for Jealous yet). Wow, reading Jealous's filter, I actually really hate it >.< There is very little original or critical thought in his posts, I feel like there is no passion or interest in his scumreads they just go with the flow basically. This guy def deserves some pressure and scrutiny, I really get the feeling he's just sliding by. Looking at his reads I could totally see a Jeal/Xata team, Xata floats around Scum to null in almost all of Jealous' reads and his reads on Xata all feel really weird and forced without any followup. Skynx - + Show Spoiler + Yolo tone read, dude is town. Actually this is probably pretty meta based, I caught Skynx in his first scumgame, he was nowhere near this carefree and conscience as scum. Have a hard time believing his scumgame would improve so much so quickly (no offense). He's town. Xatalos - + Show Spoiler + I decided to give Xata some space yesterday and see what happened. What I saw was him continue to push Skynx despite calling his own case on skynx bad, and despite calling Scott scum made no effort to explain why. When I questioned him about their relative post strength he made the same conclusion I did (Scott looked worse) but did absolutely nothing to go further. In fact he waited till I made my big case on Scott and basically went "Sure, looks good" nothing more about skynx. Contrast this lack of scumhunting to his towncase on Stutters. Plenty of other stuff to discuss here, but that is the strongest thing in my mind right now. scott31337 - + Show Spoiler + I made a big case, I'm not gunna recap that stuff I think it still stands but... I think there is still a chance Scott is town. His reaction to my push feels pretty towny to me. I dislike his last post where he is showing signs of giving up, but I have seen that from town Scott before despite it being a fairly anti-town attitude imo. I'm actually gunna go with the scumteam Lunatic/Jealous/Xata for post game cred here. Reviewing Jealous' filter made this seem really likely. Plus my earlier team of Xata/Scott is kinda weak when you look at how easily Xata was willing to lynch Scott. Xata is my preferred lynch, I've tried a few times now to convince myself he is town but still can't do it. The only staws I can grasp at are his activity and that he was so willing to draw attention to himself with the stutters stuff. Still those fall apart when you look at the actual content, and that Xata spent more time suggesting he had some super-mega great reason to TR stutters (+ Show Spoiler + which he clearly didn't. Hell 2-3 posts after his big towncase he admitted his reasoning in that was weak besides something that had JUST happened + Show Spoiler + PS: Sorry if it's confusing I change my mind a bit as I go, I write and check stuff in a stream of thought so sometimes I end a post thinking something different than I start. Especially with these bigger posts | ||
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*feels like death is approaching* | ||
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If there was a Vet you should claim, if Medic just good shit! Don't claim. | ||
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Lets get that pressure on Jealous I was talking about. ##Vote: Jealous | ||
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On October 03 2016 06:59 Tictock wrote: Humm, why wasn't I in that list Jealous? | ||
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On October 03 2016 07:07 Jealous wrote: Nice Tictock, I didn't include you in any list because I am kinda on the fence about you. On the one hand, I feel you're townie largely due to tone/us having similar ideas, but I can't put you in the conftown group with ptmc/daneler/Calix. Ok, so who do you think we should lynch today and why? Also why are you more certain about Dane than me? | ||
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Dead game anyways. I'm gunna go find a game that has people playing. | ||
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I do kinda like your point though. Actually if I were to rate everyone in the game I would say Jealous and Calix have been the most sidelined players. By that I mean they aren't doing much thats Super towny and they aren't doing anything that raises an eyebrow. Like I stand by what I said about Xata putting so much effort into that Stutters read vs his scumreads, but at the same time that doesn't fit mafia play at all. It just stands out like a sore thumb. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Skynx and Scott both are that type of player who are not vocal, but they both feel like they are just sharing what they think when they do. Even the stuff I was getting on Scott about with the stutters stuff fits that logic actually, scum!scott is more likley to invent reasons that sound good, town!scott will just post whatever he thinks even if it's kinda shit. Xata doesn't feel like he's doing much to me, just kinda sitting on a few weak thoughts. However I will admit that he is keeping stuff coming. Like I said before I'm starting to doubt scum!Xata would stick with the stuff with Stutters. On one hand I can WIFOM that he would hard townread Stutters like that as scum, but the way that he went about it doesn't feel like it comes from a scum mindset imo. Still one of my more torn reads (like i said I really do keep trying to see the townieness). ptmc is almost never mafia, if he is I for one welcome the reign of our new mafia overlords to this site. That leaves me Jealous and Calix. Nothing particularly towny stood out in my mind looking through Jealous' filter yesterday, in fact having played with town!jealous before I feel like he is incredibly restrained. Calix feels very sidelined since D1, glancing over her posts regarding Stutters there was very little consideration going on, I also dislike the N1 posts about how scum must be in the lurkers and how 100% solid that logic is (that's a bit nitpicky though, it's is likely I just don't like the assertion that it HAS to be true). The biggest issue I have considering a scum!Calix though is that means that a fairly epic buss happened D1. Otherwise by feels alone I could see Jeal/Calix here. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 03:11 Xatalos wrote: Actually, might it be best to already claim up and solve it once and for all? Let's discuss it before going through with it though. Besides claiming Vet I think the blues should claim as they wish. Although... a thought does occur if we have a medic and cop the cop could claim their checks and would be for sure able to live one more day. I think it's safe to assume there is a cop? I mean we clearly don't have a vig and it would be kinda OP for town to have medic and vet so... | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 03:26 Xatalos wrote: It's really hard to solve the game since most people aren't doing enough of anything noteworthy in the game. Myself included, kinda. I'm pretty sure scott is scum now, but with how this game has been, it's getting harder to clear even Dan/Calix for their D1 stuff anymore.. I was quite sure of stutters being town, at least. Too bad he was the one who got lynched even so.... Well, I sure hope you're town or there's not going to be much of town thread presence left at this rate. I'm not sure how much more obv town I can get, and it's a problem imo if I'm the towniest person in the game Can we play another game? Comparing Scott and Calix, who's posts have a more cautious constructed nature to them? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Case in point, this game. Besides that kinda atmosphere is so much better for town than scum imo. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 03:45 Xatalos wrote: How is Doc+Vet OP though? I think Doc+Cop is more powerful for example. Cop can claim and live forever etc. But the problem is if it's just Vet+Cop. Then Cop claiming would be stupid. To roles that stop KP sounds pretty townfavored to me. Idk I guess this is all moot until we get a claim or a blue flip but with a flipped Miller and scum having a GF I'd bet there is a cop. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 03:52 Xatalos wrote: Hm. Calix doesn't seem like he's shared much of his thoughts. Mostly questions. scott has shared, but they've been pretty much safe/sheepish reads (for example, some pretty random/NAI reasons to scumread me after it became fashionable). I guess you could say Calix would have been more careful in the sense that he hasn't pushed much of anything lately. That seems like a pretty fair assessment. I like that Calix seems to consider stuff from a few points of view, but I also can't help but get the sense that Calix is the caliber of player that can use logic and reason as a front pretty well. Since you like doing team stuff, would a Calix/Jeal team make sense to you or maybe a Calix/Scott? No need to go too deep with this, just speculating. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 03:59 Xatalos wrote: Two blue roles will be randomized between the following roles: Doctor, Vigilante, Cop, Veteran. Fine spoil my fun with your rules. Vet/Doc alive in LyLo plz, lol | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 04:16 Skynx wrote: You know what, Calix/ptmc would make so much sense cuz I based my 100% tr on ptmc D2 on immediate Luna push and Calix warned me not to trust it. Double insta bus D1? I mean hey if we are considering one epic buss, sure why not 2? Though tbh look at the interaction between Dane and Lunatic. I saw that sometime during the night and it doesn't really read like scum talking to scum. How do you feel, or what are your thought about Xata atm? I'm starting to find myself considering him town. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 04:26 Tictock wrote: I mean hey if we are considering one epic buss, sure why not 2? Though tbh look at the interaction between Dane and Lunatic. I saw that sometime during the night and it doesn't really read like scum talking to scum. How do you feel, or what are your thought about Xata atm? I'm starting to find myself considering him town. Sorry smoking too much I guess, and I completly misread this post. I really have a hard time seeing ptmc as scum. Unless he lied about this being his first game or something, I mean you remember your first game here as scum don'tcha skynx? ^.^ | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 04:43 Skynx wrote: Oi sush you, you guys were nearly getting rolled by an all 1st timer scumteam if Moosy didn't hit the miracle copcheck ^^ I actually barely recall that game tbh, I just remember you stood out to me as first time scum. But my point was do you think ptmc is playing from that position? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 04:45 Skynx wrote: See TT, these posts just trigger me soo much but I think he's town in the end. Just kus he's stating the obvious? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
What do you make of him? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I don't recall anything specifically now that set me off and I'm pretty happy to just play off my gut atm so I hope somebody can find some good stuff to talk about. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 05:20 Calix wrote: Also this means that TT tried to use "Calix is scum for being logical" as an argument without the excuse of a red check. I'm dying. I was so close to checking you actually, if it weren't for your early vote on Lunatic I prob would have. I did check Xat, so that's funny. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 05:42 Artanis[Xp] wrote: ![[image loading]](http://puu.sh/rwGeo/c624b1f3d1.png) :D Xata -> Calix -> Scott -> Xata I was pretty on point despite even going back and forth so much. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I think I'm pretty hard to read as blue, though I was starting to hint at it a bit more today since I dropped clues to my checks in that last, last will post. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 06:02 Calix wrote: Yeah, I saw people doing that in my first game here although I didn't bother myself. (died N1) Not sure if it's a habit that I'll get into though - I am lazy when it comes to night phases because my reads are liable to flip-flopping after a night kill - but I'll try to keep it in mind and post a short LW or some updated thoughts or whatnot. I really hope the "she hasn't died by Day X, must be scum" argument doesn't get used against me again. I've had that thrown at me back on the old site if I lived past N1 and it was always annoying to deal with >_> This argument does get used sometimes, so I'm sorry to say it may become a thing if you play here enough. I can't speak too much for it though kus I tend to use the method that I did this game ^.^ As for the associations stuff I can sorta agree they can be weak and hard to use. However... On September 28 2016 00:01 Tictock wrote: Ok I'm still about 20 pages behind but I gotta take a break and go run a couple errands so I wanted to drop some thoughts. You guys got some great interactions from Lunatic, and based on them I think we can be nearly certain that Skynx, Rels, and DandelH are town for the way they started pressure on Lunatic. Stutters also kinda got spewed town, though tbh I kinda doubt his early game play comes from scum anyhow. Calix also brought up some stuff early on about Lunatic, but the associative read here isn't as strong as the others. I'm tempted to think Calix is town for other reasons though. Oh and That instinct was spot on. I think I've also got a decent scum read based on associative stuff with Lunatic, but I want to get fully caught up before I get into that. On September 28 2016 01:57 Tictock wrote: Well I'm still a bit behind, but I did get through D1 and I might as well post this now. I think Xatalos is scum. Reading through the game I had the distinct impression that he waited as long as possible to discuss Lunatic, and when he did was always very wishy-washy about it. + Show Spoiler + This was the post that first made me raise an eyebrow. On September 24 2016 22:14 Xatalos wrote: Probably the worst post in the game so far (and definitely the worst of the opening posts). It's a wishy-washy suspicion riding on already existing suspicions. Pretty much the safest possible suspicion to make as scum, and leaves you with plenty of options to proceed (vote for him if it gains steam or forget it if not). Even the tone is so passive and uninvolved.. This was well after Lunatic's entrance and after he had fallen under some pressure. I suppose part of this is simply a "What game is he reading?" sort of reaction because this was far from any of the posts that I found interesting. What really struck me though was that this post implied that Xat had caught-up with the game, but besides asking Rel's his opinion and talking about blues there is literally no mention of Lunatic's posts until here. Which is especially Ironic given Xat was just accusing Skynx of having "no real stance on Lunatic events?" and that was literally my first thought about him while reading. It's worth noting his later posts as he decides to vote Lunatic as well. + Show Spoiler + Sorry not 100% these are in order, these start on pg 3 of Xata's filter On September 25 2016 21:05 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, that whole situation seems pretty stupid from any perspective. No reason to out a blue read in any form as town (even in the form of a non-reasoned strong town read -> pretty obviously a blue read), but no reason to start talking about that as scum either (just putting negative attention on himself for no reason). I guess it was some panic decision under pressure. Maybe leaning scum after all because why would he panic so much as town under a little pressure? Hmmm. Well, let's say he would be a lynch candidate, definitely over Stutter. On September 25 2016 21:10 Xatalos wrote: But why did you say that Stutter was a strong town read in the first place without any reasoning? Isn't that the same as claiming that he's potentially a blue in your opinion (from scum perspective)? Granted, it could also be a complicated meta reason or something, but having a blue read is often the reason if someone doesn't want to say his reasons for a read. And then why reveal the blue read so quickly anyway under a bit of pressure? It's just... pretty much a disastrous chain of events, especially if you're town and correct. It's also disastrous if you're scum, so... Just why? On September 25 2016 21:15 Xatalos wrote: On second thoughts, I can think of two potential scenarios where those events would make some sense. I think the scum scenario makes a bit more sense, given that he's a newbie. I'll wait a bit more before saying them out loud. On September 26 2016 02:16 Xatalos wrote: Huh. Yeah, I wanted to see some more posts before revealing my thoughts on Lunatic, but doesn't seem like anyone is really posting... So here are the two scenarios that I could imagine earlier: 1) Scum: He was trying to gain some easy credibility by pointing out a town read based on actual reasoning (blue read on Stutters after bluehunting him, as scum tend to bluehunt more often than town). Then he went into a bit of a panic after he got pressured for not reasoning his read and immediately claimed the blue read, which doesn't make much sense as town, but makes a bit more sense as scum since he wanted to relieve the pressure on him ASAP. In hindsight the play was a mistake (claiming Stutters was town without saying the reason), but it would make some sense from scum perspective at the time of doing it, especially since he's a newbie. 2) Town: Actually it was all a big WIFOM play as town to gather reactions and confuse scum bluehunting. However, this seems less likely since he's a newbie and still hasn't claimed anything of this sort despite lengthy posting on the topic. So all things considered, him being scum makes quite a bit more sense IMO. On September 26 2016 02:21 Xatalos wrote: Well, actually there's also a third scenario, where he's town and simply messed up by making a blue read, including it in his read list for some reason (without specifically saying that he thought he was a blue) and then saying it out loud in the heat of the moment. I guess that's a bit more likely than the scenario #2 after all since he's a newbie... But scenario #1 seems the most credible one, I guess. Hm. Any opinions? On September 26 2016 02:25 Xatalos wrote: Meh, not totally sure, but I think he still seems a bit worse than DanelerH atm. As for others, can't say I've found anything especially suspicious otherwise. Stutters' thing against Soul still confuses me. As for Jealous, I guess he could be scum, he's been pretty passive/blendy, but nothing really jumps out as scummy from him that I've noticed. There is a lot there, the stuff that I noticed was just how hard of a time Xata had calling Luna scum, he seems like he really wants to try and defend him in some of these posts, yet just can't quite do it. It reads exactly to me like a mafia who realizes he needs to bus and over-elaborates theread on his mate. It's weaker, but I also get the distinct impression that around the time of the quote from the top of this post (around pg 14) that Xata was kinda drawing attention away from what was some mounting pressure on Lunatic. That might be a bit of confirmation bias there though. I didn't do a half bad job with em. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 06:14 Calix wrote: That Jealous comment was really conspicuous, TT. Only reason you didn't die N2 was because we thought you might have been the player that the host gave the check to. So only because you guys knew that Jealous was who get checked then? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 06:46 Rels wrote: Fucking awesome play by TT all game too WP mate Thanks and you too man, you were a super easy read this game. I think I need to work on pushing my scumreads a bit better, bring back some of the Tunneltock. Both this game with Xata and the last game (not HM, the last one I actually got to play in) with HF I had pretty solid scumreads on them but failed to get them lynched. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Thanks, I'm glad my strat to stir things up worked out so fantastically this last phase ^.^ | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 07:18 disformation wrote: tyty <3 be warned that i waffle a lot (esp. as town) when i sm playing. currently on a break, cause i take these gsmes too serious and exploded in my last one. should startcplaying again soonish, probably after cohosting the upcoming dota themed game or something. I'm not so secretly holding out for that, ever since I noticed it in Active games list. I'm about ready for another game of PYP levels of epicness and awesomeness. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
You guys all did great, even Lunatic kept at it despite being called out so early. It seems like we've been getting a nice influx of new and more importantly active players which is great to see. I hope you all stick around to play more games. Especially SoulEaterQUEEN, as I understand it you just had another game or something else come up but you did good catching scum D1 and I thought you were fairly towny from your posts (Obs chat seems to agree). You setup our slot with quite a bit of towncred, such that I started to worry I was being too towny and was gunna got shot N2. When you have the time you should give it another go. GG's all around. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 07:41 Skynx wrote: Disfo played better than all town combined lol Pretty sure he sheeped my Xata read... | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On October 04 2016 07:48 Calix wrote: +1 I am curious to see how this dude plays. Apparently there must be something more to that scrub if he gets called 'scumformation'  He'll always be Waffleboy to me ^.^ | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Still though you'd be surprised what can happen even from a position that seems unwinnable, especially when town was a bit more in the dark than I think you guys were assuming near the end. Oh and feel free to make fun of me for those bad reasons to scumread you Calix, lol. That was more just me failing to articulate the gut read I had in a reasonable way. | ||
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