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On September 29 2016 23:41 Jealous wrote: I felt guilty because DYH was coming off as town in those last posts, truly trying to help town and all that... it was at the point when it was obvious no one would take their votes off him and everything he had to say was futile, he kept posting for town... hence the guilt ;-;
It's not futile if people read his thoughts after he dies.
I recall you made that teasing comment about his uninformed posting (as in, hadn't read the thread properly) so I don't see what changed for you in his last few posts.
You are still acting like posting is a town tell. It isn't. Have you ever played with HolyFlare? lol
I was skeptical about him not trying to vote for Stutters but in retrospect, that was a pretty stupid thing for me to worry about given the site so.
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On September 29 2016 23:41 Jealous wrote: I felt guilty because DYH was coming off as town in those last posts, truly trying to help town and all that... it was at the point when it was obvious no one would take their votes off him and everything he had to say was futile, he kept posting for town... hence the guilt ;-;
You know it does seem a bit odd that if your starting to think someone might be town enough to feel guilty about their flip that you'd post that you are "locked in" rather than suggest a vote switch.
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On September 29 2016 12:48 scott31337 wrote: Well that sucks.
Don't think I'll say much until EoD
Could you at least update your reads list, or do you now have no scum reads since all of them have turned out to be town?
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On September 29 2016 15:05 ptmc wrote: So stutters is modkilled at EON? Sorry guys. I got really busy.
Just a warning this time. Won't be modkilled.
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On September 29 2016 06:48 Tictock wrote: So those of you not voting with the winning wagon here are doing it wrong.
can you elaborate?
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On September 29 2016 07:08 Xatalos wrote: Hm. stutters didn't vote?
There are still two good reasons to townread him, but his play is really...
On September 29 2016 07:12 Calix wrote: Instead of waving around promises of reasoning, maybe just say it so that I don't have to ask you for it? lol
I read DYH's reasoning on Stutters and I'm not convinced since it's partly because of self-meta (NAI) and he changes his mind mid-way through the read.
And his minor point about Jealous' comment isn't bad. I still should get around to rereading him sometime, definitely not now though.
Pretty please?
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On September 30 2016 01:24 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 23:41 Jealous wrote: I felt guilty because DYH was coming off as town in those last posts, truly trying to help town and all that... it was at the point when it was obvious no one would take their votes off him and everything he had to say was futile, he kept posting for town... hence the guilt ;-; You know it does seem a bit odd that if your starting to think someone might be town enough to feel guilty about their flip that you'd post that you are "locked in" rather than suggest a vote switch. I'm locked in because of evidence, guilty because feels. Evidence > feels.
Also, @Calix, the only reason I made the long post on DYH is because even though he was being discussed, he only had 2 or 3 votes including myself, 1 on Xata/skynx, and like 6 people yet to vote. I figured people needed more convincing so I did an analysis post by post. Naturally, I came up with some of the same things others had up until that point and reiterated some of my own previous analysis. Don't really see how you're trying to fault me on this one, feels like you're trying to make something out of nothing for the sake of never being without a scumlean.
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On September 30 2016 02:27 Stutters695 wrote:Sorry guys. I got really busy. Just a warning this time. Won't be modkilled.
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On September 29 2016 22:17 Calix wrote:So I decided to look back through the posts leading up to the ML and I think Jealous has the most questionable sequence with regards to his DYH read. Here's what tipped me off: + Show Spoiler +On September 28 2016 08:31 Jealous wrote: It seems like people have mostly vocally agreed on DYH with a few exceptions, but I don't see the votes on him. I'll construct my case on him then, just so that it's out there. I was going to revisit Stutters but I see DYH as priority right now. Working. On September 28 2016 09:09 Jealous wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On September 24 2016 11:26 DoYouHas wrote: I think I like you as well Stutters. Good on ya.
- I'll try to get into something beyond these gut reads tomorrow, hopefully when a few more people have posted. As is I'm pretty happy with tonight. 3/5 for my town pile and 2 I need to think about and watch. Gnight. Promises more substance tomorrow, let's see if he delivers. + Show Spoiler +On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote: I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ. He's been gone for almost 24 hours and comes back with this. For reference, Stutters was making a case on SEQ and told people to go look at SEQ filter. DYH is basically saying "okay, I'll do what you suggest to check out your scumread and work with you, but only if you give me your thoughts on ptmc, about whom I haven't said a word yet." I don't know if this is very townie behavior. Why wouldn't he just give his thoughts on SEQ and then ask about ptmc? + Show Spoiler [Sidenote] +Interesting post from Xata on this, prior to DoYouHas' return: On September 25 2016 06:50 Xatalos wrote: DoYouHas did make quite a bit of posts earlier btw. 6 posts, only 4 of which were during the game, and none of which had substance besides 3 gut reads. Is this really worth commenting on? Is this really "quite a bit?" Hmm. + Show Spoiler +On September 25 2016 10:16 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 10:15 Jealous wrote:On September 25 2016 00:23 Lunaticman wrote: The game is 4 pages long day one, take a chill pill. I dare to say I have done more than half the players in the game and in my experience you never hit mafia day one. It is much better to build a town circle.
Also Stutters is in all likelyhood a blue role. And if he dies it is on you and Rels.
Am I crazy for thinking this is an anti town post? Making Stutters out to be blue role with no nuance is downright retarded. It is absolutely anti-town. Do you think it is bad play or scum? On September 25 2016 10:53 DoYouHas wrote: So is it bad enough that you would want to lynch him or do you currently have a stronger scum read on someone else currently? On September 25 2016 11:09 DoYouHas wrote: @Jealous, are you in and out? Why is it taking you this long to respond to me? As Tictock pointed out, DYH seems to be pressuring me more than Lunatic despite (at least superficially) agreeing with me that Lunatic is playing anti-town. In fact, DYH hadn't said a word about Lunatic at all up until this point. Surely he saw the post? Why ignore Lunatic? Why jump on me? + Show Spoiler +On September 26 2016 03:45 DoYouHas wrote:You have Giacomo! (so long as you are leading against DH, Luna, or Jealous) So he throws Luna into the mix now that Luna has drawn attention but dilutes it by throwing two other names in there, neither of which he had mentioned until now. The only person he had really said anything of substance about until here is SEQ, besides his gutreads at the start of the game. (Also, he didn't really contribute anything in over 27 hours, despite promising to do so). This is his first time calling any of the three scum, and does it in a way that provides no substance whatsoever. + Show Spoiler +On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 03:50 Superbia wrote: I am so fucking confused as to why no one has called me mafia yet this game and now everyone is reacting like this.
???
Oh well. Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up. DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared. Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that. Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum. Here he elaborates, imaginably because he is trying to get Superbia to sheep him. Doesn't like DH for scumreading Luna, despite also saying Luna is "possible scum," and then puts me in the same group again. Note, I was against Luna at the time as well. How would that team of 3 ever make sense? Both I and DH go for a bus halfway through D1 when there were only a handful of pages and posts, after telling Lunatic to post like an idiot? That's a stretch, and DYH makes no sense here otherwise. + Show Spoiler +On September 26 2016 04:04 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 03:59 Superbia wrote:On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote:On September 26 2016 03:50 Superbia wrote: I am so fucking confused as to why no one has called me mafia yet this game and now everyone is reacting like this.
???
Oh well. Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up. DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared. Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that. Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum. So uh. Read on DH is pre-flip association or what? I don't think Luna and Dane are likely to be scum together, but taking there play individually I think either of them could be scum here. Is that what you meant? I guess this explains the previous post somewhat, but he only makes the distinction when asked by Superbia? You would think that would be something you'd want to put in your post that is supposed to be informative to Superbia, and not only when probed further. In short, he threw out three scum reads he had never mentioned until then, then elaborated on it, but didn't mention he didn't think they were on a team together. That's careless at best; misleading seems more likely. Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Luna
Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. This post still sucks. + Show Spoiler +On September 26 2016 04:27 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 04:20 Rels wrote:On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote: I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ. On September 25 2016 11:02 DoYouHas wrote:On September 25 2016 10:56 Stutters695 wrote:On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote: I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ. I don't think ptmc is a better lynch before SEQ gets to respond. Voting me with his focus on Luna is super weird also. SEQ does not bother me much at all. He reads like he jumped in with both feet and started rooting around. The line you bolded would be weak reasoning if he had actually gone after Xata or spread suspicion on him, but I don't think he did. He moves on pretty quickly and after talking about mafia in a pretty general sense (not unusual for someone new to forum mafia, especially with Jealous getting into it too) he seems to be scumhunting. You have picked a pretty early statement from him that does not, to me, hold the significance you are assigning it. Calix is right. The sequence seems pretty forced. DYH said "I'll exchange your read on ptmc for my read on SEQ" when his read on SEQ is null. And it also looks like he was waiting of Stutters to go "OK what's your read on SEQ now ?"; but Stutters didn't, and DYH said it anyway. It looks like it was planned to appear to have a conversation. Or maybe, just maybe, both of your assumptions are wrong here. 1. I wasn't providing a null read on SEQ 2. I was actually trying to have a conversation with someone I townread. Stutters being the "someone I townread," which he did with "gut" in the first few hours of the game, which he never mentioned again. Also note that he still hasn't provided anything as he had promised at the start. + Show Spoiler +On September 26 2016 10:32 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, here is where I'm at for the night
Mafia Jealous
Town Rels SEQ Calix Stutters Skynx
Probably Town Xata
Looking better post-flip Dane
Unsure Scott Superbia ptmc Dane(again)
I ask why I am his scumread, only scumread. + Show Spoiler +On September 26 2016 11:56 DoYouHas wrote:GRAH, I CAN'T MAKE IT STICK For everything I don't like about you and think makes you scum: Your early fluff, non-committal, over-defensiveness, appeals to your noobieness, misrepresenting me, buddying Calix, looking at the proposal of multiple wagons from a mafia perspective instead of a town one (looking at it as a trap to be avoided instead of as an opportunity for better VCA) I can't seem to find the mafia actions in your play around the lynch. If I'm having trouble convincing myself of probably the most important part when I undoubtedly have my confirmation bias glasses on it probably isn't there. I was seeing your tonal shifts from casually attacking Luna to guarded consideration then back to casual attacking as very odd. But the thing I can't figure out if you are scum is why you would leave your vote on Luna and not Stutters before the wagon on Luna got rolling. This post: Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 17:17 Jealous wrote: I have to agree with Calix on the more anti-town part. [B]## Lunaticman just in case I don't make it back. It doesn't fit or is significantly more clever than I am. Damn, damn, damn. I hate having no scum reads. I really do need to get to bed though. See you all with the daypost. This takes him a whole hour and he calls me all sorts of terrible but still can't make a case. This means he is town/null-reading everyone in the game, was pushing a lynch/scumread since his first few posts D1 that he himself can't support and had given no concrete evidence on at all until he was forced to draw some out. That is simply foolish, and scummy in my book. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=40#791http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=40#792These are his last two posts, nearly a day ago. And frankly, I don't think they are very good. Although I think Rels post did have some stuff I didn't agree with, and DYH pointed them out, the rest of it was pretty weak. He doesn't make much sense in some parts nor does he substantiate much of his argument about why DH or I were scummy, which he references a few times. His earlier posts on the subject were, as you can see above, were weak as well, so it's not like he could reference some strong analysis from before. Overall, I think DYH is scum. I don't think neither Xata nor skynx are worth a vote right now, but I will definitely look into them more in detail. There are still some fishy things I don't like about Xata and Skynx doesn't seem to be paying much attention to the game in certain posts of his, which I don't like but can't necessarily say is scummy until I see them side-by-side in analysis. So yea, I voted DYH. He acknowledges that DYH is someone that pretty much everyone agrees is scummy, yet he thinks that it's a good use of his time to make a massive case against him and hop on the train because 'he doesn't have that many votes on him'. Keep in mind that DYH is the leading train at this point with the Xatalos/ Skynx thing being supported by almost nobody save for each other and Stutters having a few supporters. That is it. The Stutters train was not even a thing for most of the day. He references a fair number of arguments used by other players (TT, myself, etc) and the points he added aren't anything massively incriminating in retrospect. My point? It makes me wonder why Jealous felt the need to devote a large amount of his time to a case on someone that he was already scum-reading given that he largely rehashes the arguments of other players and this is all on a player that he's already given opinions on. That's not a case of bad priorities, that's posting for the hell of it. If you want an example of not-scummy points he raised, look no further than him criticising DYH for going "Lunatic, Jealous, DanelerH are my scum-reads" because "that team makes no sense". This is all fine and dandy...if we were talking about a post made on Day 4. That's not the case though; he's talking about reads made early on Day 1. Most players do not consider associative tells that early on in the game because the goal is to lynch a scum. Until then, you have no concrete information to base associative reads from so criticising DYH for that is nit-picky and doesn't add anything to the argument. This is also one of the worst EOD posts: Show nested quote +[B]On September 29 2016 06:40 Jealous wrote: I'm starting to WIFOM over the fact that DYH showed up just before EoD when the train is on him. Like, would a scum normally do this? I don't think I would lol. The reason it's WIFOM is because maybe he is trying to make people doubt his scumminess last second and shenanie? I'm locked in but I'll feel a little bad about it if he flips town ): As you can see, he is showing some doubt over DYH flipping scum. That's all fine, nothing to see there, but his reasoning is absolutely insane. tl;dr: - DYH showed up when he got voted - Scum wouldn't bother to turn up because scum!Jealous would not bother As Rels said earlier, this is a piss-poor reason to start doubting a scum-read when a) scum 100% would want to defend themselves so that they...don't get lynched and b) time-zones/ RL commitments can also influence if someone arrives at EOD. That's not a strong enough explanation to make anyone doubt themselves about a read, especially after the case that Jealous made where he concluded 'scum'. The mere act of posting at EOD when you are being voted has jack shit to do with your alignment. Furthermore, he wasn't interested in switching wagons from DYH so I see no logical or emotional motivation for this sudden doubt. Thus I'm concluding that he's full of shit. That post had him stretching so hard for an excuse to distance from the ML that he sprained a muscle. Yeah this got my attention during EOD as well. Jealous was very quick to throw out the idea of DYH being town for bad reasons. Scums are most likely in Jealous / Stutters / scott
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On September 30 2016 02:30 ptmc wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 06:48 Tictock wrote: So those of you not voting with the winning wagon here are doing it wrong. can you elaborate?
No further comment at this time >.<
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On September 29 2016 06:50 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 06:48 DoYouHas wrote:On September 29 2016 06:39 Calix wrote: DYH, why try to start a new train when you could vote for Stutters?
I find that extremely weird when you said he was a possible scum tbh. Let's be honest here, I'm not turning this train on me around. There is too much information to be gained and too much has happened/not happened to and from me to not go through with the lynch. So I'm going to put my vote on the person I think is most likely to flip scum. Stutters is possible scum but I still trust my gut reads from early in the game. If I end up being wrong, so be it, but I think Scott is more likely. Is there something other on scott than NK analysis?
Is there NK analysis against scott? Because sup scumread him? But that definitely is not the main aspect of scotts scummyness, see his interaction with lunatic for instance.
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I still have Scott and Stutters as the main scumreads. Stutters obviously hasn't changed since he didn't post anything, and Scott has no more scumreads. That doesn't seem to bother him in the slightest. He also ignored the train on Lunatic for the longest time, to then take posts he didn't even deem important enough to discuss earlier as his reason to vote for him in the lynch. His filter is 2 pages of nothing.
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On September 30 2016 06:40 ptmc wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 06:50 Xatalos wrote:On September 29 2016 06:48 DoYouHas wrote:On September 29 2016 06:39 Calix wrote: DYH, why try to start a new train when you could vote for Stutters?
I find that extremely weird when you said he was a possible scum tbh. Let's be honest here, I'm not turning this train on me around. There is too much information to be gained and too much has happened/not happened to and from me to not go through with the lynch. So I'm going to put my vote on the person I think is most likely to flip scum. Stutters is possible scum but I still trust my gut reads from early in the game. If I end up being wrong, so be it, but I think Scott is more likely. Is there something other on scott than NK analysis? Is there NK analysis against scott? Because sup scumread him? But that definitely is not the main aspect of scotts scummyness, see his interaction with lunatic for instance.
I don't see how anything DYH posted suggested scott is scum.
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On September 30 2016 06:58 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2016 06:40 ptmc wrote:On September 29 2016 06:50 Xatalos wrote:On September 29 2016 06:48 DoYouHas wrote:On September 29 2016 06:39 Calix wrote: DYH, why try to start a new train when you could vote for Stutters?
I find that extremely weird when you said he was a possible scum tbh. Let's be honest here, I'm not turning this train on me around. There is too much information to be gained and too much has happened/not happened to and from me to not go through with the lynch. So I'm going to put my vote on the person I think is most likely to flip scum. Stutters is possible scum but I still trust my gut reads from early in the game. If I end up being wrong, so be it, but I think Scott is more likely. Is there something other on scott than NK analysis? Is there NK analysis against scott? Because sup scumread him? But that definitely is not the main aspect of scotts scummyness, see his interaction with lunatic for instance. I don't see how anything DYH posted suggested scott is scum.
I think he meant the last Night, so superbias death?
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Well I started to run out of time here so had to start skimming more than I might have liked, but here we are.
Town: Calix - + Show Spoiler +I started to review Calix's filter but after about a page and a half I think I have to conclude that Calix is just obv town. Entire play just seems clear and sensible, and is rather active to boot. I'm impressed with how care much care Calix takes with making reads as well, seems to be carefully considering town and scum mindsets.
Calix is also almost 100% town based on the early vote and push on Lunatic. When I was first reading the game I picked up on a couple of posts where it looked like Calix was hedging and didn't give much credit for lynching Lunatic. Reviewing now I see that Calix's inital reaction was what made me thing that but quickly changed to a scumrean reviewing things further. Really unlikely that scum changed gears that fast on a teammate and votes 2nd on the wagon. Rels - + Show Spoiler +Pretty much the first person to pressure Lunatic. Even if I thought Rels would bus a teammate so early I would never believe it would go down like what happened.
He is French, but we really can't hold that against him. ptmc - + Show Spoiler +Mostly just sticking with my initial gut read on this guy, but his effort and investment level pretty much never comes from newbie scum.
Townlean: Jealous - + Show Spoiler +Kinda a toneread, kinda me being lazy.
Honestly even skimming his filter I don't see much that really sways me one way or another, but I do sorta like/agree with his reads. Skynx - + Show Spoiler +I guess I might just be reading Skynx via meta here, but I still think he is likely town.
Calling out Lunatic's open right off the bat feels weird if they are scum together, and while Skynx wasn't really pushing Lunatic his posts read like he is just dropping thoughts on all parts of the game.
Meta wise I just think Skynx feels really relaxed and is freely sharing thoughts. It's been awhile but the last time I saw him play as scum he came off pretty awkward and his reads weren't very organic. Pretty much the opposite of what I see this game. scott31337 - + Show Spoiler +I'm not sure I have anything new to add on Scott, he's town from the way he is approaching the game reacting to stuff and posting his thinking. He rarely posts more than he is, and as scum tends to have far less actual content in his posts.
Null: DanelerH - + Show Spoiler +I could actually go either way on this guy fairly easily.
On the one hand he seemed to be pushing Lunatic rather early on, and I thought his case on stutters in #691 was decent.
On the other his vote on Lunatic was pretty late despite being so early on the push, he's made two cases but otherwise has little substance to reads, both votes are just hop on's (idk how to say it better).
Scum: Stutters695 - + Show Spoiler +I think at best I can consider Stutters a scum favored coin-flip. My gut still wants to read him as town though.
I still kinda like his opening play, he seems carefree not afraid to draw attention and rub people the wrong way. The stuff with Lunatics post is there, but is is pretty WIFOM.
Overall-though Stutters has very little contribution, his weak D1 push on SEQ was based on one observation that never went anywhere. He jumped on Lunatic wagon super late and with nothing behind it. He gets defensive at night and then has basically been afk without any real thoughts put out into the game. Xatalos - + Show Spoiler +I'm actually less sure that I was before, I'm just leaving him down here kus I'm not convinced he's town and I ran out of time for a proper re-read.
Tbh though I'm not sure I have much faith in these scumreads my heart just isn't in them, right now Stutters seems like he's gunna force us to lynch him though since he's apparently back and reading the game but isn't playing.
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Last Will and Reads in order
4) ptmc - This guy has his spurts - but he craps out analysis quite well. I have very little doubt this guy is town.
6) Tictock - We have a lot of ideas we sync on - his replacement was the first on LunaticMan.
1) Calix - I really think this guy is town, but he has a change from his last game that had no suspicions at all. He's giving real thoughts and contributing to the game. If he doesn't die d4/d5/etc I'd get really worried why he's alive.
2) Rels - His push on Luna - this feels like helpful, progressing the game Rels, not the scummy Rels.
3) Skynx - He's trying really hard to pocket me or he's town and others are looking to mislynch him. I think he's town though and not trying some stray idea. But in the tinfoil "Game can't be this easy" strat, he's my #2 tinfoil mafia.
5) Jealous - Like his last wall of texts show he's looking into the game, looking for holes and possibilities.
3) DanelerH- After re-reading his filter there's not a whole lot there. One page - and two okay posts. He has some scumreads, which is good, but I want to see where he goes with these. He goes after Luna at the beginning when there was little pressure to do so.
1) Stutters695 - Luna/d1 interactions - he really shit the bed day 2 though. If he doesn't step it up today, he's gone.
4) Xatalos - Guy is pretty defensive, doesn't like to give up information unless forced (Don't give town a damn thing style) - and feel like he's trying to mislynch Skynx, since I'm either being really pocketed or he's town. He also in his "scum team" and other posts seem to leave me as low hanging fruit.
I feel Xata is mafia, and there's a vet that knows Superbia that killed him when he was scumming me, and not nearly as helpful as the three up above (or the blue read) Hopefully this kill will shine some more light.
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Day 3 Rels the VT has been shot!
Day 3 has begun! You have until Saturday, Oct 01 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) to vote for your preferred lynch. Voting is mandatory and has to be done in the voting thread.
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A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think?
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Also if there's a cop - remember there's a miller and a godfather, your checks can mean nothing.
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