EPTNewbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 44
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 28 2016 15:12 scott31337 wrote: Rels - Who are your two scum reads? Xata/DYH. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
I reread DYH filter in the game we played together (Dark Tournament) and it's true he was pretty inactive during D1. But after a certain point he fired up. And more importantly, he was actively looking for scum. None of that here. LOL I found something, let's compare this (in this game): On September 28 2016 09:25 DoYouHas wrote: Hey guys, I have been slammed at work this week. I will probably have at most 1-2 hours to look at this game between now and deadline. Many of you want to lynch me, I get it. It might even be for the best as my time really won't free up until this weekend. I apologize for not being on top of my time management to play this game the way it should be played. That being said, I'm really not going to get into defending myself but I will try to get out a few reads before you all send me packing to try and not leave the town with nothing. If I am unable to get anything out before the deadline tomorrow GL town, ya still got this  .DYH is understanding the scumreads and OK to be lynched. In Dark Tournament mafia, when he was suspected a lot for his inactivity D1: On December 02 2015 08:08 DoYouHas wrote: Oh heck no. You all don't get to mislynch me my first game in 2 1/2 years with reasons this weak. Seems to me like the vocal Palmar and Rels had strong opinions on me with reasons that made sense for them and everyone else is limping onto the wagon due to confirmation bias or because it is easy with my small postcount. So let's get into it. Rels and I disagree on optimal blue play. Whatever, nothing came of it and it isn't a useful topic anymore. This is in no way scummy. I figured scum know the setup because that was my experience (in another BH game IIRC) however, it has been a long time since I played so I asked the question in case this is no longer standard. (In the same vein, could someone tell me what TMI stands for?) Palmar didn't like that I defended Shining, or at least didn't like my reasons. He now agrees with me, moving on. The "weird progression" on Trfel is just a misrepresentation. I'm not sure how me disagreeing with him and calling him crazy means I have a town read on him. - I'm going to have a lot of afk time over the course of this game. I like sleep and I have a job where I can't post. Still going to put plenty of effort into playing, just don't have a wide window for posting. Literally the opposite reaction. "I'll be AFK, fuck you I'll still do stuff, you won't mislynch me". | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 28 2016 01:31 Skynx wrote: My dear Xatalos, 1) You are accusing me of ignoring Lunatic-related events when you're the one trying to shut down blue discussion the moment it started. 2) The WORST PART: You are implying me focussing some one else than scum makes me scum, however half the game is now scumreading DYH. Even Rels of all people who initially tought it was bs. Do you think DYH is town in this case? Do you think my reads on DYH is bullshit? If you not, how does having a logical case on someone else when another mafia dies makes me scum? 3) Mafia 100000% busses here, i don't even have to explain this. Lunatic was unsaveable, he slipped. 4) That post is not saying "lynch me or DYH". I was offski most of D1 so town would be rightfull to lynch me so it was me showing some activity in the short amount of time I had. I made my stance about Luna earlier as u quoted, no need to repeat in every post something Luna related because he flipped scum. 5) Your entire strategy suggesting me sacrificing myself for Luna I have no idea how someone can see that here. So I was afk on purpose to save my scumbuddy on EoD by suggesting myself as a policy lynch??? 6) So the whole thing is mostly associative that now Super is dead and Luna is scum and I'm the only off-wagon. Nice try. Verdict: Scum This is not a push town would make. He's basically invalid and wrong about every point made and reaching conclusions that are totally irrelevant to what he quotes as a reasoning. Big up tho, you made my life easier cuz now i don't have to check your filter to conclude you're highly likely scum. On September 28 2016 01:57 Tictock wrote: Well I'm still a bit behind, but I did get through D1 and I might as well post this now. I think Xatalos is scum. Reading through the game I had the distinct impression that he waited as long as possible to discuss Lunatic, and when he did was always very wishy-washy about it. This was the post that first made me raise an eyebrow. This was well after Lunatic's entrance and after he had fallen under some pressure. I suppose part of this is simply a "What game is he reading?" sort of reaction because this was far from any of the posts that I found interesting. What really struck me though was that this post implied that Xat had caught-up with the game, but besides asking Rel's his opinion and talking about blues there is literally no mention of Lunatic's posts until here. Which is especially Ironic given Xat was just accusing Skynx of having "no real stance on Lunatic events?" and that was literally my first thought about him while reading. It's worth noting his later posts as he decides to vote Lunatic as well. + Show Spoiler + Sorry not 100% these are in order, these start on pg 3 of Xata's filter On September 25 2016 21:05 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, that whole situation seems pretty stupid from any perspective. No reason to out a blue read in any form as town (even in the form of a non-reasoned strong town read -> pretty obviously a blue read), but no reason to start talking about that as scum either (just putting negative attention on himself for no reason). I guess it was some panic decision under pressure. Maybe leaning scum after all because why would he panic so much as town under a little pressure? Hmmm. Well, let's say he would be a lynch candidate, definitely over Stutter. On September 25 2016 21:10 Xatalos wrote: But why did you say that Stutter was a strong town read in the first place without any reasoning? Isn't that the same as claiming that he's potentially a blue in your opinion (from scum perspective)? Granted, it could also be a complicated meta reason or something, but having a blue read is often the reason if someone doesn't want to say his reasons for a read. And then why reveal the blue read so quickly anyway under a bit of pressure? It's just... pretty much a disastrous chain of events, especially if you're town and correct. It's also disastrous if you're scum, so... Just why? On September 25 2016 21:15 Xatalos wrote: On second thoughts, I can think of two potential scenarios where those events would make some sense. I think the scum scenario makes a bit more sense, given that he's a newbie. I'll wait a bit more before saying them out loud. On September 26 2016 02:16 Xatalos wrote: Huh. Yeah, I wanted to see some more posts before revealing my thoughts on Lunatic, but doesn't seem like anyone is really posting... So here are the two scenarios that I could imagine earlier: 1) Scum: He was trying to gain some easy credibility by pointing out a town read based on actual reasoning (blue read on Stutters after bluehunting him, as scum tend to bluehunt more often than town). Then he went into a bit of a panic after he got pressured for not reasoning his read and immediately claimed the blue read, which doesn't make much sense as town, but makes a bit more sense as scum since he wanted to relieve the pressure on him ASAP. In hindsight the play was a mistake (claiming Stutters was town without saying the reason), but it would make some sense from scum perspective at the time of doing it, especially since he's a newbie. 2) Town: Actually it was all a big WIFOM play as town to gather reactions and confuse scum bluehunting. However, this seems less likely since he's a newbie and still hasn't claimed anything of this sort despite lengthy posting on the topic. So all things considered, him being scum makes quite a bit more sense IMO. On September 26 2016 02:21 Xatalos wrote: Well, actually there's also a third scenario, where he's town and simply messed up by making a blue read, including it in his read list for some reason (without specifically saying that he thought he was a blue) and then saying it out loud in the heat of the moment. I guess that's a bit more likely than the scenario #2 after all since he's a newbie... But scenario #1 seems the most credible one, I guess. Hm. Any opinions? On September 26 2016 02:25 Xatalos wrote: Meh, not totally sure, but I think he still seems a bit worse than DanelerH atm. As for others, can't say I've found anything especially suspicious otherwise. Stutters' thing against Soul still confuses me. As for Jealous, I guess he could be scum, he's been pretty passive/blendy, but nothing really jumps out as scummy from him that I've noticed. There is a lot there, the stuff that I noticed was just how hard of a time Xata had calling Luna scum, he seems like he really wants to try and defend him in some of these posts, yet just can't quite do it. It reads exactly to me like a mafia who realizes he needs to bus and over-elaborates theread on his mate. It's weaker, but I also get the distinct impression that around the time of the quote from the top of this post (around pg 14) that Xata was kinda drawing attention away from what was some mounting pressure on Lunatic. That might be a bit of confirmation bias there though. On the other hand these are very, very good. I want to kill both. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On September 28 2016 09:25 DoYouHas wrote: Hey guys, I have been slammed at work this week. I will probably have at most 1-2 hours to look at this game between now and deadline. Many of you want to lynch me, I get it. It might even be for the best as my time really won't free up until this weekend. I apologize for not being on top of my time management to play this game the way it should be played. That being said, I'm really not going to get into defending myself but I will try to get out a few reads before you all send me packing to try and not leave the town with nothing. If I am unable to get anything out before the deadline tomorrow GL town, ya still got this .Though I'm pretty inclined to think this post comes from mafia myself. We have: - A defeated attitude - An appeal to town sympathy - Claims a lack of time, possibly his last post 8 times out of ten this kinda post comes from mafia imo. I am certain however, that this type of play would make Giacomo cry. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm thinking a DYH lynch is probably the best lynch today, I still think Xat is scum as well but I need to check a few things and tbh he is at least staying fairly active so he can live another day. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 28 2016 18:34 Tictock wrote: Anyways I'm only sortof around atm. I think I basically read everything but I'll take one last look to be sure, might also start skimming some filters. I'm thinking a DYH lynch is probably the best lynch today, I still think Xat is scum as well but I need to check a few things and tbh he is at least staying fairly active so he can live another day. None of what he did with his activity was townie though | ||
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Calix
3379 Posts
Both the Skynx case (by Xatalos) and the Xatalos associations case (by Skynx) were absolute crap and were reliant on confirmation bias to support a pre-existing point. They just consisted of some throwaway comments which may possibly indicate scum/ scum interactions but maybe not and it was painful to read. Of those posts, TT made the best point when he said that Xatalos was being a hedge master with regards to Lunatic and talking too much and saying too little. Could just be how he talks (if anyone who's played with him before could chip in with their thoughts there then that would be good) but if I find the time then I'm going to see if his tone changed over the game. If it did then that's incriminating as hell. Skynx' reaction to Xatalos was the most riled up I've seen him and that was in response to him being attacked. It stands out to me because of the departure from his more resigned "lynch me" attitude near the D1 EOD to someone who is defending themselves more vigorously. @Skynx, what changed for you here? Right now I think DYH is the best lynch. He's still not scum-hunting and whatever he's preparing had better be good and a lot of his defense was WIFOM (I wouldn't do X as scum) and meta analysis (which I don't understand nor do I care to because meta is shit). It's funny because he's spent more time on talking about himself over anyone else and that self-involvement is not something that comes from town. Yeah, this can die. Stutters is also scummy. Something I've noticed with him is that he is always promising to do certain things ("I'll have this big post ready before EON/ EOD" being just one example) but has followed through on almost none of them and I have not seen a RL reason for him not doing that or any explanation at all. He just drops it. It's like he says that to get people off his back because nobody wants to waste someone's time when they've promised to do XYZ. @Scott, I've just started university and I just got a new job, so I only get an hour or so to myself on most days. Above two are the players I think are the most likely scum atm. I think Scott is also a possibility and TT's points make me want to re-visit my Xatalos read too. Also going to look at Jealous, Skynx too just because they have been less active so I need to remind myself of what they've done this game. | ||
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Calix
3379 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Calix
3379 Posts
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ptmc
Finland306 Posts
On September 28 2016 18:42 Calix wrote: + Show Spoiler + I don't relate to a lot of the associative logic that's being used. Probably a site meta difference because scum on my site are more prone to low-key pushing their scum buddies to distance themselves before making some weird-ass defenses of them later on so it's really jarring to see people (like myself, Skynx, TT, etc) get town-read with the first point as a large contributing factor to that town-read. Is it really that rare for scum buddies to question each other? Both the Skynx case (by Xatalos) and the Xatalos associations case (by Skynx) were absolute crap and were reliant on confirmation bias to support a pre-existing point. They just consisted of some throwaway comments which may possibly indicate scum/ scum interactions but maybe not and it was painful to read. Of those posts, TT made the best point when he said that Xatalos was being a hedge master with regards to Lunatic and talking too much and saying too little. Could just be how he talks (if anyone who's played with him before could chip in with their thoughts there then that would be good) but if I find the time then I'm going to see if his tone changed over the game. If it did then that's incriminating as hell. Skynx' reaction to Xatalos was the most riled up I've seen him and that was in response to him being attacked. It stands out to me because of the departure from his more resigned "lynch me" attitude near the D1 EOD to someone who is defending themselves more vigorously. @Skynx, what changed for you here? Right now I think DYH is the best lynch. He's still not scum-hunting and whatever he's preparing had better be good and a lot of his defense was WIFOM (I wouldn't do X as scum) and meta analysis (which I don't understand nor do I care to because meta is shit). It's funny because he's spent more time on talking about himself over anyone else and that self-involvement is not something that comes from town. Yeah, this can die. Stutters is also scummy. Something I've noticed with him is that he is always promising to do certain things ("I'll have this big post ready before EON/ EOD" being just one example) but has followed through on almost none of them and I have not seen a RL reason for him not doing that or any explanation at all. He just drops it. It's like he says that to get people off his back because nobody wants to waste someone's time when they've promised to do XYZ. + Show Spoiler + @Scott, I've just started university and I just got a new job, so I only get an hour or so to myself on most days. Above two are the players I think are the most likely scum atm. I think Scott is also a possibility and TT's points make me want to re-visit my Xatalos read too. Also going to look at Jealous, Skynx too just because they have been less active so I need to remind myself of what they've done this game. Finally someone also sees the scumminess in him. I was starting to think i was insane On September 28 2016 18:51 Rels wrote: I want to respond to your Stutters thing but I'm leaving for lunch. I'll do it after that because to me he's either confirmed town or scum depending on how this game develops, unless I misread something Please do. there are definitely cases where I can see him being town in the future, but I don't feel like the overarching tr he is getting atm is warranted. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
His opening play seems to be purposefully drawing attention to himself and that's not really something mafia does. Lunatic almost certainly spewed Stutters town. In my experience mafia has a hard time explaining townreads sometimes because they just know someone is town, and sometimes mafia defend town that look bad just so they look better when that person flips. This is almost certainly what happened this game, Lunatic saw Stutters under attack and decided to throw him an easy townread which came under fire and he couldn't back it up. Is stutters play very towny in it of itself? Not terribly, but I don't see what his game is if he is scum playing this way either. I'll make a note to give his filter a once over later though. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
Day 2 Vote Count DoYouHas (3): scott31337, Jealous, Rels Skynx (1): Xatalos Xatalos (1): Skynx Not Voting (6): Calix, DanelerH, ptmc, Tictock, Stutters695, DoYouHas At the current vote count, DoYouHas is slated to be lynched. You have to vote here. Voting is mandatory! | ||
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Skynx
Turkey7150 Posts
On September 28 2016 18:42 Calix wrote: I don't relate to a lot of the associative logic that's being used. Probably a site meta difference because scum on my site are more prone to low-key pushing their scum buddies to distance themselves before making some weird-ass defenses of them later on so it's really jarring to see people (like myself, Skynx, TT, etc) get town-read with the first point as a large contributing factor to that town-read. Is it really that rare for scum buddies to question each other? Both the Skynx case (by Xatalos) and the Xatalos associations case (by Skynx) were absolute crap and were reliant on confirmation bias to support a pre-existing point. They just consisted of some throwaway comments which may possibly indicate scum/ scum interactions but maybe not and it was painful to read. Of those posts, TT made the best point when he said that Xatalos was being a hedge master with regards to Lunatic and talking too much and saying too little. Could just be how he talks (if anyone who's played with him before could chip in with their thoughts there then that would be good) but if I find the time then I'm going to see if his tone changed over the game. If it did then that's incriminating as hell. Skynx' reaction to Xatalos was the most riled up I've seen him and that was in response to him being attacked. It stands out to me because of the departure from his more resigned "lynch me" attitude near the D1 EOD to someone who is defending themselves more vigorously. @Skynx, what changed for you here? Right now I think DYH is the best lynch. He's still not scum-hunting and whatever he's preparing had better be good and a lot of his defense was WIFOM (I wouldn't do X as scum) and meta analysis (which I don't understand nor do I care to because meta is shit). It's funny because he's spent more time on talking about himself over anyone else and that self-involvement is not something that comes from town. Yeah, this can die. Stutters is also scummy. Something I've noticed with him is that he is always promising to do certain things ("I'll have this big post ready before EON/ EOD" being just one example) but has followed through on almost none of them and I have not seen a RL reason for him not doing that or any explanation at all. He just drops it. It's like he says that to get people off his back because nobody wants to waste someone's time when they've promised to do XYZ. @Scott, I've just started university and I just got a new job, so I only get an hour or so to myself on most days. Above two are the players I think are the most likely scum atm. I think Scott is also a possibility and TT's points make me want to re-visit my Xatalos read too. Also going to look at Jealous, Skynx too just because they have been less active so I need to remind myself of what they've done this game. Man you might wanna read it again i think you got us mixed up. None of my reasons voting Xata was associative, in fact quite the opposite i sr him cuz of his bad reasons for associating me with Lunatic which are all long long shots of assumption the way he presented them. My case is based on the fact that town!Xata is incapable of reaching these conclusions from an unbiased pow. About me presenting myself as lynch target i agree that now it turned out to be a bad idea cuz i havent read the thread at all at that point and didnt knew Luna's lynch was like 95% certain. It was mainly cuz i've been so busy and town would be right to lynch me at that point. | ||
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Calix
3379 Posts
On September 28 2016 20:06 Tictock wrote: Eh I totally see where you guys are coming from on stutters, but I'm kinda with Rels. Stutters is pretty solidly town in my view. His opening play seems to be purposefully drawing attention to himself and that's not really something mafia does. Lunatic almost certainly spewed Stutters town. In my experience mafia has a hard time explaining townreads sometimes because they just know someone is town, and sometimes mafia defend town that look bad just so they look better when that person flips. This is almost certainly what happened this game, Lunatic saw Stutters under attack and decided to throw him an easy townread which came under fire and he couldn't back it up. Is stutters play very towny in it of itself? Not terribly, but I don't see what his game is if he is scum playing this way either. I'll make a note to give his filter a once over later though. It was at the beginning of the game though - saying that "scum don't do X at Y point" is player-reliant so I don't put a lot of stock into those kinds of arguments. The beginning of the game is also when the scum are vulnerable because they can really give themselves away with how they enter the thread and present themselves in the first few posts. What I'm saying here is that scum tend to make worse posts at the start because they don't know how the town will react to certain players, they don't know who the easy targets will be, they won't have a good idea of what strategy they are using yet. That means that you can catch them off-guard with one or two bad posts such as the ones Stutters made. This is a reliable habit that I've noticed with scum and that's what I think happened. And since it's at the start of the game, it's easier for said posts to be overlooked by something else cropping up. Lunatic didn't have a hard time explaining it - he just outright refused to say anything and then said "oh it's meta, tone and TPR" so I don't agree with that characterisation. How would scum have a harder time explaining town reads? They know who the town are so they can pick up on really subtle 'town tells' that town players make that the town are less likely to notice. It is possible that Lunatic was white-knighting, as you said, but that fumbling around with his read has a lot of holes no matter how you look at it. In short, it's a terrible attempt at white-knighting because it just drew more attention to both of them and Stutters didn't town-read Lunatic for it and it's a terrible defense of scum as he didn't explain it straight away. So that's why I am not focused on that read outside of "it's bad play". I agree that just focusing on Stutters' post is 10x more productive than some throwaway town-read so let me know what you make of Stutters once you get the time to read it. On September 28 2016 20:49 Skynx wrote: Man you might wanna read it again i think you got us mixed up. None of my reasons voting Xata was associative, in fact quite the opposite i sr him cuz of his bad reasons for associating me with Lunatic which are all long long shots of assumption the way he presented them. My case is based on the fact that town!Xata is incapable of reaching these conclusions from an unbiased pow. About me presenting myself as lynch target i agree that now it turned out to be a bad idea cuz i havent read the thread at all at that point and didnt knew Luna's lynch was like 95% certain. It was mainly cuz i've been so busy and town would be right to lynch me at that point. Nah my dude, I'm saying that your "Xatalos/ DYH are in cahoots" post was shite, not your "Xatalos' case on me is shite" post. It was part of my point about how a lot of people are making terrible associations - I think you guys are straining a muscle to make the few posts that Lunatic/ DYH/ etc made fit your conclusions instead of just analysing the actual person and forming a conclusion that way. Gotcha. | ||
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Calix
3379 Posts
On September 28 2016 18:51 Rels wrote: I want to respond to your Stutters thing but I'm leaving for lunch. I'll do it after that because to me he's either confirmed town or scum depending on how this game develops, unless I misread something "He is either town or scum, I am not sure yet." - Welcome to the club. If this is because of the Lunatic thing, this is why reads based on external factors are inferior 95% of the time. Just use his posts. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 28 2016 21:32 Calix wrote: "He is either town or scum, I am not sure yet." - Welcome to the club. If this is because of the Lunatic thing, this is why reads based on external factors are inferior 95% of the time. Just use his posts. I really disagree, I'm 100% with TT here. Stutters is very likely to have been spewed town by Lunatic. My "confirmed town or scum" thing is wrong. I thought Stutters kinda claimed a role in these posts: On September 26 2016 23:47 Stutters695 wrote: Just woke up. You guys aren't lynching me d2 lol. On September 27 2016 00:01 Stutters695 wrote: Here's what's going to happen. I'm going to type some stuff up. Usually I would wait until EoD, but I work before then so I'll just throw it out. You guys will be like "wow, he does things and they make some sense, this dude is probably town." Just know you're cutting into my Overwatch time and that makes me sad. I have 100% confidence I won't be lynched. but rereading them it is not the case. I thought he said "I'm 100% sure I won't die this game", but he actually said "I'm 100% sure I won't be lynched". My thought was that Stutters was vet, thus with the roleblocker gone there was no way for him to be killed at night, and with his claim he couldn't be killed by lynch either; and that was why he was so sure he wouldn't die this game. But I remembered his sentence wrong. | ||
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