Newbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 46

On September 29 2016 03:31 scott31337 wrote:
Work has been really crazy today so I've only skimmed today's posts - I'll try to be back in a little bit.

On September 29 2016 03:29 Xatalos wrote:
For the record, I agree that my earlier case (not the piece of text I just wrote) on Skynx was a bit crap, now that I look at it. It didn't really convey well what I thought about him. It's better to just ignore my earlier case and look at his actions directly with the question in mind "what if he was trying to save Lunatic from getting lynched D1?"

On September 29 2016 04:07 Tictock wrote:


So even given this, and keeping the same question in mind while reading DYH filter, you still find Skynx more likely to be scum than DYH?

On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote:
I'll answer to earlier questions for me etc. later, but I had an idea while at work that I just had to start working on as soon as I could... So the following post is about that. It should make things a lot clearer at least for me

The idea being: two levels of scummy interactions, one for Lunatic <--> others and the other for the scummiest of the previous ones <--> each other to figure out 3-man scumteams that make sense. Let's see where this goes. (huge thanks to ptmc's post here by the way, it saved me a lot of time: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=35#695 )

1) Lunatic <--> others

DanelerH
Pushed Lunatic through most of D1 and possibly caused him to "shut down" in the thread. I highly doubt he would do that to his teammate. Lunatic appeared genuinely pressured as well, making odd (in hindsight) claims like the blue read on Stutters and going overly defensive.

Calix
Pretty much started the Stutters-read pressure on Lunatic and participated in forming his lynch wagon. Kind of similar to DanelerH, hard to see scum doing that to each other from the start of the game.

Stutters
A more controversial pick for green color, perhaps, but I agree with whoever said that it would be extremely rare for scum to immediately throw a strong townread on their teammate like Lunatic did. It would only link them together in everyone's minds (something scum would definitely not want) and make the other look bad/scum if the other flips. In addition, it wouldn't come naturally as a careless throwaway comment like how Lunatic said it. It just fits so much better as a casual, too strong townread on someone he would know to be town in advance. Also, I have an interesting theory related to Stutters, but that's best left for later.

Rels
Jumped on the Lunatic wagon pretty early and questioned his read on Stutters earlier on, but nothing truly conclusive. Town lean?

- - - - - - (the point after which I can see these people being scum with Lunatic to some meaningful extent)

SEQ/Tictock
Voted for Lunatic, but otherwise ???

Jealous
Hard to say. Had Lunatic as a lynch candidate / scum for most of D1, but nothing exactly conclusive to their relations happened.

scott
Can't say I agree with ptmc's assessment about how weirdly he interacted with Lunatic. His posts almost mirror my thoughts at the time of their writing (even regarding Stutters and DanelerH)... but it's true that he was pretty "on the fence" about lynching Lunatic or not during D1 so it's not too hard to see a Lunatic/scott team.

DYH
Passive towards Lunatic and the whole D1 lynch in general. His Lunatic vote was pretty "resigned" and late as well. Could well be scum with Lunatic.

Skynx
Soft-defended Lunatic, ignored him or counter-pushed away from him on several occasions during D1 (see ptmc's eventlist for easy details, just search for "Skynx" lines in red text, or read his filter). Never pressured Lunatic or contributed to his lynch either (no, the one-liner "Lunatic had the worst intro post I guess" didn't impact his own or anyone else's play during D1). A Lunatic/Skynx scumteam makes the most sense to me.

2) Sensible scumteams?

Now it's the time to check if any of the players who could be scum with Lunatic would fit as scum with each other.

Skynx/DYH?
Doesn't seem very likely. Skynx pushed DYH late during D1, and it would be pretty stupid to go through that trouble just to perhaps get a scum lynched instead of another scum. More sensible options would have been to bus Lunatic or to push a townie. I guess it could have been distancing, but that doesn't seem likely in that high-stakes situation.Verdict: NO

Skynx/scott?
Skynx soft-defends scott in a couple of his posts, otherwise nothing. scott barely mentions Skynx, but when he does, in a slightly positive light. This team could make sense. Verdict: YES

Skynx/Jealous?
Jealous doesn't really mention Skynx until very recently where he said that he "doesn't like Skynx but he's not necessarily scummy". Skynx doesn't really talk about Jealous at all. Verdict: YES

Skynx/SEQ/Tictock?
Not much, but Skynx congratulates SEQ for questioning Lunatic... And Tictock calls Skynx town for "pressuring Lunatic"??? In reality, it was the opposite situation, just read Skynx's filter or ptmc's summary. Not really sure if scum would so blatantly prop up another, but something is off. Verdict: YES

DYH/scott?
Not completely sure about this one, but I guess they do fit somehow. scott agrees that DYH is scummy, but not much beyond that.... They also have a weird interaction where they start to "chat" with each other, but nothing happens? Verdict: YES

DYH/Jealous?
Not likely. DYH has pressured/scumread Jealous on several occasions and similarly Jealous has been scumreading DYH. A double bus in this game state is a bit too unlikely... Verdict: NO

DYH/SEQ/Tictock?
DYH defended SEQ somewhat, but Tictock has been quite anti-DYH. Could be bussing, I guess, but hard to say. Verdict: ?

scott/Jealous?
scott scumread Jealous D1, but townread him after the Lunatic lynch since Jealous "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". Jealous put scott as a lynch candidate after Lunatic was lynched. Overall, uncertain for now. Verdict: ?

scott/SEQ/Tictock?
Kind of like with Jealous, scott first (slightly) scumreads SEQ and townreads him after Lunatic was lynched since he "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". SEQ never mentions scott. Tictock calls scott "prob town but kinda null". I guess this scumteam could work... Verdict: YES

Jealous/SEQ/Tictock?
SEQ townreads Jealous early on, later on unsure. Tictock calls Jealous null. Jealous doesn't really voice an opinion on SEQ/Tictock. Verdict: YES

If I missed something, please point it out. This has been a ton of work and there's probably a mistake somewhere at this point.

In any case, it's time for the conclusions based on earlier stuffs. Here are the sensible possible scumteams that are left now:

Skynx/scott
Skynx/Jealous
Skynx/Tictock
DYH/scott
scott/Tictock
Jealous/Tictock

Frankly, I'm not too confident that DYH is scum based on this. He would almost have to be scum with scott. Meanwhile Skynx could basically be scum with anyone besides DYH. scott isn't very limited either, but I like him better than either Skynx or DYH.

Well, I'd be glad to hear other opinions on these findings.

On September 29 2016 04:07 Tictock wrote:


So even given this, and keeping the same question in mind, you still find Skynx more likely to be scum than DYH?

On September 29 2016 02:48 Xatalos wrote:


That was just the part about D1 interactions with Lunatic. Although I'm not really sure about you either, yet. I'll take a closer look after I'm back after a bit of AFKing

On September 29 2016 04:10 scott31337 wrote:


Some of these are some crack smoking teams -

I'm town so a lot of them are crack but -

DYH/me - so I push my other teammate in n1/d2 and lay a vote on him at the beginning of d2 and have others hop on it, so I'm all by myself for 3-4 mislynches. Yeah that'll work

Me/TT - so SEQ/TT starts the train on his teammate, and then when TT replaces in, he's got legitimate thoughts and we mindmeld together because we are mafia together? mmhmmm

I think this is quite a bit of stretch and what you are throwing out, to be honest. It's why I asked you who your two scummates are. Now it looks like you are throwing shit to see what sticks.

Not good.

On September 29 2016 04:22 Rels wrote:

Weird post. You're defending against TT's attack by saying your post was only about a certain part of the game; yet your read on him is actually null so he's actually right.

On September 29 2016 04:24 Xatalos wrote:


Just corrected him because he directly quoted my comment about SEQ's D1 stuff.

On September 29 2016 04:27 Xatalos wrote:


Besides, I'll point out that no read != nullread.

On September 29 2016 04:29 Rels wrote:

TT sentence is literally "I refuse to believe you have literally no read on me."

On September 29 2016 04:37 Xatalos wrote:
Rels, what do you even think of Skynx?

On September 29 2016 03:17 Xatalos wrote:
Skynx's static non-reaction to my biggest contribution so far ("still scum because OMGUS, nothing will ever change that!") makes me quite sure that he has to be scum.

If you're still not convinced, read this with some thought and then look at Skynx's filter:

On September 29 2016 04:39 Rels wrote:

I think he's town. I can follow his entire train of thought for D2 and I believe it is real.

On September 29 2016 04:42 Xatalos wrote:


Hm. To me his D2 play looked more like "a case on me? it's not even good? a chance, time to go full OMGUS and never look back!" and that forever after.

On September 29 2016 04:42 Skynx wrote:

I commented on your push and why it was crap and why it made you scum. Your comment on it pretty much ignored everything I put on the table and just said OMGUS. Therefore you painting me as "static non-reaction" is just hilarious.

Do you have Holyflare coach? + Show Spoiler +

On September 29 2016 04:45 Xatalos wrote:


Holyflare?

I agree I presented your filter's ugly truths badly earlier, but it doesn't make me scum. The core of my suspicion on you came from reading ptmc's list of your actions on D1, which were about all scum-aligned. I should have just listed those, but for some reason I went looking for additional things that weren't very damning. Keep it simple, stupid

On September 29 2016 04:44 Skynx wrote:

A case? You mean the sole argument of me trying to prevent Lunatic gettin lynched?