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On August 02 2016 11:33 Stutters695 wrote:
FWIW I wouldn't put too much credence in the vote patterns for them (especially Grack unless you find him scummy to begin with).
Gracks KSC vote was clearly a joke at the very start of the game.
When Silent came back and was a potential lynch target, he had to come out somewhat strong (regardless of alignment) and I was certainly an easy choice to pump something out on.
The last vote by silent was to save himself so of course he'd pick the other wagon.
Thing is I was scumfeeling both of them in my very first set of reads. I was back and forth on them quite a bit, especially after engaging with Grack for a bit, but never entirely convinced of innocence.
That voting pattern has a hell of a kick to it though.
I should go to bed in any case and sit down and calmly work through my full analysis tomorrow. Its 4am and my mind is all over the place.
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What was your last scum game grack?
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On August 02 2016 11:39 Stutters695 wrote:
What was your last scum game grack?
Who needs 72 hours anyway.
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On August 02 2016 10:51 Stutters695 wrote:Going to get my thoughts out there so people can argue them in case I get shot tonight. My main two scum reads first. Grack: Looks pretty bad from the day in general. Even worse after the flip. Doing a re-read as I post this. #234 - it's weird that he has a town read on RB, but null. #237- Want to note his "mafia play more subdued" comment. Moving on. + Show Spoiler +On August 01 2016 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:Alright now my thoughts. I thought Silentwarrior's opening post was fine. I don't agree with his thoughts on Kelsier, but it seemed like reasoning a new town player would make. Furthermore, I thought that he would probably be an easy target for scum since he wrote out a case on Kelsier for posts that aren't really alignment indicative. Show nested quote +On August 01 2016 01:34 Grackaroni wrote:Ok, I'll be back on tonight. I'd like to see some opinions on this post: On July 31 2016 19:39 silentwarrior wrote:Hi guys, this is my second game on TL. I play mostly irl mafia, but wanted to try this again, first game ended too quick. Ok, so about Race Bannon. He posted a lot in the beginning when not many else did, which is good as it helps town discussion. Granted, most of it was nonsense but he is atleast posting. Don't think he should continue with it later though. But what I wanted to focus on was KelsierSC On July 31 2016 17:12 KelsierSC wrote:
This game is fucking stupid. I'll see you all this evening when hopefully something reasonable has been posted. So, his first post he says that this is stupid and is gonna not post anything until the evening when something "reasonable" has been posted. But why not post yourself? Maybe say something reasonable yourself. Going away for hours without posting does not help us. On July 31 2016 19:07 KelsierSC wrote:
I'm not putting up with this shit for the whole game
##vote Race Bannon
See you all in a few days Then this, where he votes for Race Bannon (which is not what I have a problem with), but then states "See you all in a few days". Again, stating his intention to not post. I think not wanting to post and waiting for others seems like something scum would do. ##vote Kelsier SC Since earlier in the thread J roc and Mderg posted suspicions on Silentwarrior based on that post and the day has been so slow, I wanted to see if a wagon would form. Not much came from it. Skynx said Silentwarrior was suspicious and Mderg reaffirmed his suspicion. Right now I'm kind of inclined to lynch Mderg just because I think the three people he has pushed so far (Silentwarrior, Lunatic, scott) have been the townier people in the thread, and he has pushed suspicion on two of them and tried to policy lynch the third. This post bothers me. At best this is lazy scumhunting when he should know better. This post lacks any justification into why scum mderg would push those people, just that he should be lynched for having different reads. #326 slight positive for calling out skynx, petty easy thing to see and no real follow-up to be found. + Show Spoiler +On August 02 2016 02:40 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 02:35 Stutters695 wrote:On August 02 2016 02:27 Grackaroni wrote:On August 02 2016 02:24 Stutters695 wrote:
Grack, who is your biggest scumread and why? I don't have any. Right now I'm just trying to narrow down who I want to vote between you/Skynx/J Roc/BtDt. Everyone else I don't want to lynch today. So not a single one of us sticks out above another to you? Nope. I might have a slight preference for Skynx but my reasoning is too useless to even bother explaining. I've actually looked through filters quite a bit and I'm pretty much just calling it quits. I'm going to see if Rels shows up and see what he has to say. Has dropped Mderg without any new scumreads of merit or even real suspicion. #358 His case is built on Btdt's case while only contributing that L didn't comment on C's point against grack, however in the quote L thinks he "is probably town" in direct contrast to C's scum lean. Followed by some omgus on me, but I consider that pretty null. Now onto crunch time: Says he's going to re-read Lunas filter from a previous game. OMGUS vote on me with no actual intent to push me. Doesn't follow up on the Luna meta read. Sheeps Rels on Mderg. Again, nothing original. + Show Spoiler +On August 02 2016 07:32 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 07:15 Stutters695 wrote:On August 02 2016 07:01 Grackaroni wrote:On August 02 2016 06:56 Stutters695 wrote:On August 02 2016 06:51 Grackaroni wrote:On August 02 2016 05:13 Stutters695 wrote:On August 02 2016 04:50 Grackaroni wrote:On August 02 2016 04:38 Stutters695 wrote:
As far as I can tell your only real point against him is he's not super active and didn't comment on celestial's post regarding you. He did say he was leaning town on you which implies he at least disagreed with it.
He might be scum but your points are a stretch, it'll become more apparent in time and I'm not convinced enough to lynch him over someone who is barely posting when that's half the game. We have two players with long filters for this game skynx/Luna voting for somebody afk. We have a bunch of other people who have posted close to nothing worth commenting on. With this in mind, how exactly is your push on me not completely horrible? Now add in the fact that you are unwilling to contribute anything else besides this. Why shouldn't I vote you? I was going to write something on Lunatic but I'm going to go reread the start of his filter from the last game first. I'm done with pushing you until after the lynch. Downside to missing most of d1 and not having the time to throw up a large post from mobile. If you missed most of day1 why would you push me like this? If I missed most of day 1 I'd at least show some caution with my reads rather than barge in with a 75% certain scum read like you did. Neither of us are getting lynched today, so let's focus on determining who is the best lynch. We have one hour until the lynch. I don't doubt my read, but I don't have the thread presence to make this happen. What did you think about silent's return post and voting for me? I'm already voted for Mderg. Silent's post looks fine to me, what's your issue with it? It shows either a general lack of disinterest(not following along) or an inability to make actual reads. 1) blatant misunderstanding/misrepresentation in his case on me. 2) his point on Scott again shows how little attention he is actually paying. He didn't immediately accuse 4 people of being scum, he said he'd expect to find scum on the wagon and would thus look into them. 3) his scum reads don't show a lot of thought in them while his town reads do. When I first rolled mafia it was incredibly hard to give scum reads with any sort of genuine belief when you know they're town. Bussing and town reads are much easier to give. I'm getting those vibes hard from his comeback post and his lynch gives much more info than a lynch on mderg. I reread him and I don't really agree with your conclusion. 1)He's voting you because he thought your case on me was weak and he didn't like that you voted him when you had never mentioned him before. I don't see the misrepresentation. 2) it's not a bad post really. Scott did kind of did accuse all 4 at the start and then choose which one was the scummiest from the four. I think it is at least worth considering. 3) For day 1, I think that's what I would expect. I think the first coaching advice I ever got was that if you're just able to leave day 1 with some strong town reads you're in good shape. Day 1 lynches tend to be hit or miss and this game especially has been bleh. This post especially bothers me. He doesn't acknowledge the clear distinction between a plynch and normal vote which is especially odd considering I was his vote before sheeping Rels. Second point again is wrong. Just soft defending. Although I disagree, I can understand the third point as a difference in philosophy. I'd recommend reading Ver's analysis because what I'm accusing Silent of is strikingly similar to what Grack is doing. The post as a whole comes off as a soft defense of Silent, which looks bad with what happens after. Again to emphasize, he is not contributing to finding scum, but softing town reads and slight pushes for non-indicative things . One might even say it's subdued play. Not spoilering these because they're the most important. Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 07:35 Grackaroni wrote:On August 02 2016 06:03 Rels wrote:
Scum team is very likely to be in this pool:
mderg
Celestial / KSC / Stutters
BTDT I'm seeing a lot of squirming within Rels' scum reads between celestial and stutters, so I would beg town to follow through on this mderg lynch. Pre-flip associations that accomplish nothing. It's also worth noting how he's just on board with a town Rels with essentially no doubt despite Rels just showing up. He does backtrack on the associations in his next post, rendering this null, but still a lack of any real contribution. With 3 minutes remaining, he finally accepts C and my argument that scum more than likely wouldn't vote how Mderg did, but he "waited too long for shennys" then apologizes to Mderg. It comes off as him being very worried of his appearance after the flip. This dude scum. I'll check his meta tomorrow, but to be frank, I don't think it's even needed.
#234 Nothing to say. I probably jumped the gun and he really wouldn't care regardless. Doesn't matter now.
#237 Nothing to say here either.
I agree this post from me was probably a dumb idea from the get go since it's not going to convince anyone of anything. It was where I was at in the game and I've had a little bit of success finding mafia from pushing lynch bait before in a previous game.
I never really had a strong scum read to begin with on Mderg. I saw some post from him that I liked and that's why I dropped him originally.
This #358 thing I don't understand at all. Lunatic's reply to Celestial's post doesn't make me think he's looking for mafia at all. From what he's posted he has been really intent on trying to find out my alignment because he misread me last game, so if this was actually true, why did he ignore everything that Celestial posted on me? I still think the post was bad.
I started reading his filter but I'm super lazy. I wouldn't seriously push to lynch him without going over his filter because he can make some pretty questionable posts as town.
I think you're equally guilty of this one. You openly stated that you weren't going to push me because you didn't think you could lynch me.
This policy lynch/regular lynch thing is patently ridiculous. I'm responding to your post in which you are clearly pushing him as a mafia read, not a policy lynch.
I did soft defend SilentWarrior. That's what you do during a lynch. You give your preferences of the lynch targets and make a decision. That's not really scummy unless Silent Warrior is mafia, which you are assuming.
Pre-flip associations that seemed interesting to me. It did look a lot like one of you or celestial were squirming to save mderg since you both expressed some openness to lynch him with a preference for the alternative lynch. I'm not actually on board with Rels as town, just on board with sheeping Rels because I wasn't feeling solid in my reads.
I did wait too long for shenannies! If you wanted shennanies you should have started them earlier.
This guys town. No need to check meta because frankly he's the towniest guy in thread. Hijole!
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I shit the bed with my squirming theories. But . . .
On August 02 2016 08:09 -Celestial- wrote:
*slow clap*
How about that mderg/Celestial/Stutters scum team guys? They're looking really twitchy and defending him really hard! *facepalm*
My rebuttal:
On August 02 2016 11:18 -Celestial- wrote:
Also in fact in every case Grack would make a change and then silent would follow that change.
Kelsier - Grack at 01:51, silent ~10 hours later
Stutters - Grack at 19:57, silent ~2 hours later
mderg - Grack at 22:30, silent an hour later
On October 06 2014 13:00 Alakaslam wrote:
NOW WE START
YOU JUMPEE GUN YOU DID
in conclusion,
On October 06 2014 13:00 Alakaslam wrote:
Ssup mijos
I am back
I am nobody special
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But what? Moosy apparently spotted something on you and silent in the votes and drew attention to it and I wrote it down? What about it?
Also:
I did wait too long for shenannies! If you wanted shennanies you should have started them earlier.
I brought up a possible shenanie target a solid 27 minutes before EoD.
I then again brought up the possibility of shenanies onto either myself or KSC thirteen minutes before EoD.
Stop trying to pretend that nobody had starting looking into it before it was too late when its easily proven to be a lie.
Nobody expressed real interest. In either. Until mderg said about it eight minutes before deadline. Both were with plenty of time for anyone to start saying "alright, I'd be up for that". I didn't start any actual movement myself because at that point I was sitting on the next-highest wagon in the hopes there was a chance to still save mderg.
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Tinfoil hat theory.
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together.
KSC/Grack/silent
Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar.
This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere.
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On August 02 2016 12:35 -Celestial- wrote:But what? Moosy apparently spotted something on you and silent in the votes and drew attention to it and I wrote it down? What about it? Also: Show nested quote +I did wait too long for shenannies! If you wanted shennanies you should have started them earlier. I brought up a possible shenanie target a solid 27 minutes before EoD. I then again brought up the possibility of shenanies onto either myself or KSC thirteen minutes before EoD. Stop trying to pretend that nobody had starting looking into it before it was too late when its easily proven to be a lie. Nobody expressed real interest. In either. Until mderg said about it eight minutes before deadline. Both were with plenty of time for anyone to start saying "alright, I'd be up for that". I didn't start any actual movement myself because at that point I was sitting on the next-highest wagon in the hopes there was a chance to still save mderg.
I think it's at least as face palm as my squirming theory.
My point is that if there had been a different wagon 3 minutes before the lynch perhaps I may have changed. I probably wouldn't have either way in all honesty.
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I'm going to bed. I'll almost certainly write a thing before EoN in case I die.
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I have one message to leave for the rest of you guys.
On October 07 2014 02:16 Alakaslam wrote:
Hello Bamcis chef of the east side of the west.
You said I was skummi earlier with no reasons
I wants your reezinz
#ProbablyVigged.
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On August 02 2016 12:43 Grackaroni wrote:
I think it's at least as face palm as my squirming theory.
This is utter nonsense. Because one is based on feelings and one is based off some cold, hard facts.
Your squirming theory was based on an unflipped association read between three people. All of whom, by your own pointing out, were on the same wagon (a damn risky thing for mafia to do, even to save one of their own, safest thing would have been to have one bus late on). And one of whom actually managed to hammer himself and is now confirmed town after being lynched. It had zero basis on any actual evidence and has been shown to be rubbish because mderg is confirmed to be not mafia.
On the other hand the thing Moosy pointed out (and I've detailed above) is based on actual, verifiable votes made. Not wild guesses based on future flips. It is a FACT that the two of you were consistently on votes with each other around the same time. It is also a FACT that silent consistently followed you onto the votes. I'm going to look through filters tomorrow properly to see the excuses given for the vote changes; but the fact that those events actually happened cannot be disputed and it looks dodgy as hell.
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Now it really is 5am and I'm going to sleep.
Right now I'm comfortable with a Grack lynch D2. But I'll look over everything tomorrow to see if anything else pops up.
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On August 02 2016 12:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Tinfoil hat theory.
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together.
KSC/Grack/silent
Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar.
This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere.
I guess scott/Grack/silent is also possible.
KSC votes were to try to do something to counteract the RB nonsense and give some kind of alternative wagon, especially if they expected a replacement given how things were going. Neither were ever on the RB/scott wagon at all despite it being a super easy plynch to make.
I'm kinda making wild guesses here now. My mind is seriously drifting off into all kinds of weird ideas. Very tired.
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On August 02 2016 12:57 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 12:43 Grackaroni wrote:
I think it's at least as face palm as my squirming theory. This is utter nonsense. Because one is based on feelings and one is based off some cold, hard facts. Your squirming theory was based on an unflipped association read between three people. All of whom, by your own pointing out, were on the same wagon (a damn risky thing for mafia to do, even to save one of their own, safest thing would have been to have one bus late on). And one of whom actually managed to hammer himself and is now confirmed town after being lynched. It had zero basis on any actual evidence and has been shown to be rubbish because mderg is confirmed to be not mafia. On the other hand the thing Moosy pointed out (and I've detailed above) is based on actual, verifiable votes made. Not wild guesses based on future flips. It is a FACT that the two of you were consistently on votes with each other around the same time. It is also a FACT that silent consistently followed you onto the votes. I'm going to look through filters tomorrow properly to see the excuses given for the vote changes; but the fact that those events actually happened cannot be disputed and it looks dodgy as hell.
Aha! I predict you shall be baited yet. Since when is voting next to each other for three lynches a mafia strategy? I say your cold, hard "facts" are cracking at the seams, while my feels were reals, indeed!
Serious answer:
(they're the same thing regardless. Both theories were based off "verifiable votes" and wild guesses based on future flips. Once I flip town your theory will look equally silly.)
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On August 02 2016 13:03 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 12:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Tinfoil hat theory.
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together.
KSC/Grack/silent
Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar.
This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere. I guess scott/Grack/silent is also possible. KSC votes were to try to do something to counteract the RB nonsense and give some kind of alternative wagon, especially if they expected a replacement given how things were going. Neither were ever on the RB/scott wagon at all despite it being a super easy plynch to make. I'm kinda making wild guesses here now. My mind is seriously drifting off into all kinds of weird ideas. Very tired.
See, Grack. THIS is facepalm worthy-stuff and I'll openly admit it. At least if I can't find anything to support these ideas tomorrow that is. Because I'm making a lot of assumptions and stuff when I'm far too tired to be thinking properly.
The fact your voting patterns match, however, is an actual thing that happened.
...I'm really going to bed now. Its ten past five in the morning. -_-
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Lol go to sleep Celestial.
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On August 02 2016 13:08 Grackaroni wrote:
Aha! I predict you shall be baited yet. Since when is voting next to each other for three lynches a mafia strategy?
Its a poor strategy. But silent is a newbie. So anything is possible.
I say your cold, hard "facts" are cracking at the seams, while my feels were reals, indeed!
Your "feels were reals"?
Wait...you still thing mderg could be part of a me/Stutters/mderg scumteam? Despite him flipping town already? You what?
Serious answer:
(they're the same thing regardless. Both theories were based off "verifiable votes" and wild guesses based on future flips. Once I flip town your theory will look equally silly.)
They're not the same thing. Because I had no 'theories' in the post you quoted. I was simply expressing facts that Moosy drew my attention to. It is a FACT that that voting pattern happened. And you're trying really far, far too hard to dismiss this.
My ACTUAL theories, meanwhile, I have already just quoted above as being totally wild, unsubstantiated guesses. Proudly self-admittedly so. Though I'll probably have a dig about tomorrow to see if any posts fit either pattern.
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On August 02 2016 13:10 Grackaroni wrote:
Lol go to sleep Celestial.
That's probably a good idea. I legitimately have a headache right now. I slept really badly last night too so I've had like three hours sleep in the last forty hours or so.
Goodnight.
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On August 02 2016 13:14 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 13:08 Grackaroni wrote:
Aha! I predict you shall be baited yet. Since when is voting next to each other for three lynches a mafia strategy? Its a poor strategy. But silent is a newbie. So anything is possible. Show nested quote +I say your cold, hard "facts" are cracking at the seams, while my feels were reals, indeed! Your "feels were reals"? Wait...you still thing mderg could be part of a me/Stutters/mderg scumteam? Despite him flipping town already? You what? Show nested quote +Serious answer:
(they're the same thing regardless. Both theories were based off "verifiable votes" and wild guesses based on future flips. Once I flip town your theory will look equally silly.) They're not the same thing. Because I had no 'theories' in the post you quoted. I was simply expressing facts that Moosy drew my attention to. It is a FACT that that voting pattern happened. And you're trying really far, far too hard to dismiss this. My ACTUAL theories, meanwhile, I have already just quoted above as being totally wild, unsubstantiated guesses. Proudly self-admittedly so. Though I'll probably have a dig about tomorrow to see if any posts fit either pattern.
It's just a meaningless phrase. I'd be quite shocked if you were mafia.
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@Grack
I'll concede 358, that was a pretty convoluted point and honestly fairly inconsequential. Made more sense as I was typing it.
I didn't push your lynch because we had like an hour and a half until the lynch and I didn't have the clout to get it to go through. Last thing we needed was to shit up the thread more.
The plynch vs actual push is the crux of what's wrong with silent's vote on me. His return/vote on me was before I had him as anything other than a policy lynch. Of course I hadn't mentioned him because there was nothing to mention. He was mia and needed to post.
Yet, despite your admitted lack of trust in your own reads and your willingness to sheep someone of whom you had no idea their alignment, you defended Silent. Then when you apologized to mderg (implying at least a slight town read at that point) you could have switched to silent, which would have put him in the lead over mderg. Why not do that?
This doesn't add up.
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EPT
