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Newbie Student Mafia XXII - Page 33

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J Roc
Profile Joined September 2015
96 Posts
August 02 2016 13:07 GMT
#641
On August 02 2016 22:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

This is the weird part of the low hanging fruits. There should have been a Mafia on Race Bannon because he was too easy a chance to kill especially when we look at the list of people voting for him:
KSC
mderg
Stutters
btdt
J Roc

KSC is null-town for me right now, mderg flipped town, and Stutters is fairly town. That leaves us with btdt and J Roc and btdt is the more likely. Especially considering he had such shit reason to vote Race Bannon in the first place because he tried to make up a reason to show RB as scummy when the spammy stuff RB was doing was completely NAI. If you look at the final votecount, you see that Grack/silent were on every possible wagon except for the btdt one as well. I'm pretty sure the team is btdt/Grack/silent.


I never voted RB, I voted Scott.
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 02 2016 13:08 GMT
#642
On August 02 2016 22:07 J Roc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 22:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

This is the weird part of the low hanging fruits. There should have been a Mafia on Race Bannon because he was too easy a chance to kill especially when we look at the list of people voting for him:
KSC
mderg
Stutters
btdt
J Roc

KSC is null-town for me right now, mderg flipped town, and Stutters is fairly town. That leaves us with btdt and J Roc and btdt is the more likely. Especially considering he had such shit reason to vote Race Bannon in the first place because he tried to make up a reason to show RB as scummy when the spammy stuff RB was doing was completely NAI. If you look at the final votecount, you see that Grack/silent were on every possible wagon except for the btdt one as well. I'm pretty sure the team is btdt/Grack/silent.


I never voted RB, I voted Scott.

ok nvm, but that only makes btdt more scum lol.
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
MoosyDoosy
Profile Joined November 2014
United States4519 Posts
August 02 2016 13:09 GMT
#643
Also, what are your thoughts J Roc? Can you give a short summary of where you stand on people right now?
"Just a second too late rsoultin :D" - My 4k Guardian post
J Roc
Profile Joined September 2015
96 Posts
August 02 2016 13:09 GMT
#644
On August 02 2016 21:54 Lunaticman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 21:48 J Roc wrote:
On August 02 2016 21:29 Lunaticman wrote:
On August 02 2016 21:26 Skynx wrote:
On August 02 2016 21:09 Lunaticman wrote:
On August 02 2016 20:46 Skynx wrote:
On August 02 2016 18:18 Lunaticman wrote:
A lot happend while I was asleep, There are many suspicious things that occured and I will try to work through the pages during the day (at work atm) and explain what I believe happend.

I think it is safe to say that most of the accusations yesterday was probably Town versus Town (at least of the players being tossed around for a lynch while I was asleep). First I'm going to post a list on my current read on the players (I can elaborate on them if asked). And it is safe to assume at least one mafia was on the train on Mderg. And one mafia was probably not on it.

Town:
Lunaticman
Mderg

Town-reads:
Celestial
Scott
Skynx


Nullreads/unsure:
MoosyDoosy
silentwarrior
J Roc
Stutter
BeenThereDoneThat

Scummy:
KelsierSC
Grac

Mafia:
Rels

First of all Rels joins the game way to late to actually consolidate town in any meaningful way. And he only does it after being called out on it (modkill warning?). And he starts a train with conviction anyway and simply points out three/four players based on nothing:
Scum team is very likely to be in this pool:

mderg
Celestial / KSC / Stutters
BTDT


You then explain why Mderg is scum and I have to agree most of your points are valid but it feels contrived when you do this post:

Yep this is the lynch.
All aboard the mderg express. You have to be seated before the departure. Scummates traveling with mderg are not allowed in


And then you welcome Grac aboard, like it is the only available lynch target. Grac is more than happy to follow your read and happily join. I feel like there has to be one mafia between the two of you and it feels like you are playing way to similar to last game. It can be that one of you wree trying to protect one of the lynch targets in scott/Mderg. I don't think both of you are mafia though.

I also feel that Moosys modkill warning was really wierd, it might be he simply forgot to vote but it is still strange.

I am not impressed with Kelsier contributions to town atm, it doesn't feel like he trying to solve the game. It is like he doesn't care and just coasting through the day, I expect him to do a lot of work day 2.

The same thing applies to BeenThere but I feel he has done more for town.

I don't like how Grac was sheeping Rels. I find it hard to think that both Grac and Rels would make such a mistake but it is not impossible. I would think Rels is more probable out of the two. Grac has way more activity this game and feels towny to me based on it. But some of his thoughts doesn't make sense to me. Ill have to reread his filter.

Man why 1 thing you say doesn't match the other one in a regular basis?
You assign Grack to Rels, mention previous game and gracks willingness to jump on the train. You then put grack in same line as KSC?
You say btdt has done more for town compared to KSC so he's null and KSC's low tier scum? KSC's entire activity consists of a lazy vote on Race/Scott, I dunno how that is not null and btdt is.
I also dunno how you assign Celestial as top tier town and not Moosy/Stutters cuz they did everything together post flip. Stutters/Celestial were even working together pre-flip.

Moosy's warning is as per game rules, please read them. Voting is the most important thing here.


At first I put both KSC and BTDT in the same category but when I read their filters BTDT did way more to solve the game, so I "uppgraded" him. KSC filter is really really bad, it does not contain anything useful at all.

The reason for where I put Grac is that he has posted a lot more constructive this game compared to last game and before I went to sleep I had him as towny. I did not like his sheep vote from Rels at all and when I compared them I think Rels is more likely to be mafia between the two. Townies are prone to make more "honest" mistakes and I think Rels has to take responsibility for the misslynch,

I don't feel I have as good a read on either Moosy or Stutters yet to place them in my town list. They are however more towny than null but I'm not certain. I think I will reread their filters after day 2 and make a decision after that.

This might sound cliche but Celestials filter is what I consider to be the perfect towny. I also don't think any mafia would put that much effort into solving the game that early and just trying to move the thread forward when it was basically dying. Atm I see no reason to change my mind regarding cele.

Also scott is not mafia because of how bannon was playing. I don't buy that he would do that spam as either alignment.



Well, make sure to read few pages back lol.

Also on bolded, I'm afraid to tell you when trolly players decide to turn the switch on, they absolutely and absolutely have to do it for both alignments otherwise it becomes a strategic weakness on their part and we can meta read them based off of that.



Well that makes sense but he hasn't played before right?


No he has played before, not sure if he has rolled scum before though.


Maybe that is going down the wrong rabbit hole but do you mind checking? otherwise I might reread day 1 with bannon/scott.


I guess but it still doesn't matter he would need to play trolly either way and imitate his previous play as town if he rolled scum.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
August 02 2016 13:13 GMT
#645
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

I like this list.
J Roc
Profile Joined September 2015
96 Posts
August 02 2016 13:16 GMT
#646
On August 02 2016 22:09 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Also, what are your thoughts J Roc? Can you give a short summary of where you stand on people right now?



When I am back home I'll read everything over again and give thoughts.
Lunaticman
Profile Joined November 2007
Sweden1097 Posts
August 02 2016 13:24 GMT
#647
On August 02 2016 22:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

This is the weird part of the low hanging fruits. There should have been a Mafia on Race Bannon because he was too easy a chance to kill especially when we look at the list of people voting for him:
KSC
mderg
Stutters
btdt
J Roc

KSC is null-town for me right now, mderg flipped town, and Stutters is fairly town. That leaves us with btdt and J Roc and btdt is the more likely. Especially considering he had such shit reason to vote Race Bannon in the first place because he tried to make up a reason to show RB as scummy when the spammy stuff RB was doing was completely NAI. If you look at the final votecount, you see that Grack/silent were on every possible wagon except for the btdt one as well. I'm pretty sure the team is btdt/Grack/silent.


I want you to tell me why we shouldn't just lynch Rels though. There has to be a mafia between Rels/Grac? They actually did a misslynch, The Bannon train so far to my knowledge is just speculation right?
Failure is not an option
J Roc
Profile Joined September 2015
96 Posts
August 02 2016 13:34 GMT
#648
On August 02 2016 22:24 Lunaticman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 22:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

This is the weird part of the low hanging fruits. There should have been a Mafia on Race Bannon because he was too easy a chance to kill especially when we look at the list of people voting for him:
KSC
mderg
Stutters
btdt
J Roc

KSC is null-town for me right now, mderg flipped town, and Stutters is fairly town. That leaves us with btdt and J Roc and btdt is the more likely. Especially considering he had such shit reason to vote Race Bannon in the first place because he tried to make up a reason to show RB as scummy when the spammy stuff RB was doing was completely NAI. If you look at the final votecount, you see that Grack/silent were on every possible wagon except for the btdt one as well. I'm pretty sure the team is btdt/Grack/silent.


I want you to tell me why we shouldn't just lynch Rels though. There has to be a mafia between Rels/Grac? They actually did a misslynch, The Bannon train so far to my knowledge is just speculation right?



Like what was said earlier leading a day 1 mislynch is more likely to come from town, but like I said rels is capable of doing so as scum in a game he thinks the player list is weak like this one and people will expect him to be town leader.
J Roc
Profile Joined September 2015
96 Posts
August 02 2016 13:35 GMT
#649
On August 02 2016 22:13 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

I like this list.



Actuall thoughts?
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
August 02 2016 13:47 GMT
#650
On August 02 2016 22:35 J Roc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 22:13 Rels wrote:
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

I like this list.



Actuall thoughts?

Some but I'm working so you will have to wait until tonight
Lunaticman
Profile Joined November 2007
Sweden1097 Posts
August 02 2016 13:48 GMT
#651
On August 02 2016 22:34 J Roc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 22:24 Lunaticman wrote:
On August 02 2016 22:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

This is the weird part of the low hanging fruits. There should have been a Mafia on Race Bannon because he was too easy a chance to kill especially when we look at the list of people voting for him:
KSC
mderg
Stutters
btdt
J Roc

KSC is null-town for me right now, mderg flipped town, and Stutters is fairly town. That leaves us with btdt and J Roc and btdt is the more likely. Especially considering he had such shit reason to vote Race Bannon in the first place because he tried to make up a reason to show RB as scummy when the spammy stuff RB was doing was completely NAI. If you look at the final votecount, you see that Grack/silent were on every possible wagon except for the btdt one as well. I'm pretty sure the team is btdt/Grack/silent.


I want you to tell me why we shouldn't just lynch Rels though. There has to be a mafia between Rels/Grac? They actually did a misslynch, The Bannon train so far to my knowledge is just speculation right?



Like what was said earlier leading a day 1 mislynch is more likely to come from town, but like I said rels is capable of doing so as scum in a game he thinks the player list is weak like this one and people will expect him to be town leader.


Well the way he went about the lynch is what I'm having a hard time to accept. There already were a few lynches in motion and he just rides in on the wind late and goes balls to the walls lets get Mderg. it seemed contrived. I also don't like how fast that wagon formed from the other lynches being talked about. It felt like he was basically trying to save someone rather than lynching a mafia.
Failure is not an option
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
August 02 2016 15:17 GMT
#652
On August 02 2016 22:13 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

I like this list.

J'accuse!

On January 26 2014 11:20 Alakaslam wrote:
I am who I am! But I am not who I was! But I was similar to who I am! Am I worth your time?

scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
August 02 2016 15:44 GMT
#653
On August 02 2016 11:16 -Celestial- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 11:06 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Please take note of the names that pop up within the quotes.

Celestial, if you'd be so kind as to look at the names that commonly pop up and cross check them with the vote count that would be great.


Well off your last set of quotes I'm assuming you're implying at least Grack and silent.

Grack: Kelsier (31/7 01:51 BST) > mderg (1/8 00:20) > Unvote (1/8 18:02) > Lunaticman (1/8 19:27) > Stutters (1/8 19:57) > mderg (1/8 22:30)

silent: Kelsier (31/7 11:39) > Stutters (1/8 21:53) > mderg (1/8 23:40)


...both Grack and silent were on the same people at the same time on three separate occasions.

Surely it can't be that easy?


Wow, nice find...
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
August 02 2016 15:50 GMT
#654
On August 02 2016 22:13 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

I like this list.


Have you ran out of energy for this game?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
August 02 2016 16:07 GMT
#655
I'm going to be running around for work most of the day today - so I will not be on much.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
August 02 2016 16:17 GMT
#656
On January 26 2014 09:47 Alakaslam wrote:
Grackaroni

Have you knowledge of the ways of KASLIZM? Many fish! What for to say when shall it be caught?

I now have knowledge of the ways of KASLIZM. many fish shall be caught. Many fish, indeed!

I point my finger most vigorously at the traitorous Rels.

From day 1 his reads were as follows:

On August 02 2016 06:03 Rels wrote:
Scum team is very likely to be in this pool:

mderg
Celestial / KSC / Stutters
BTDT


Clearly stutters and Celestial are town now from the end of the day and night, so I would expect changes to be made there in Rels' reads.

On August 02 2016 22:13 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.

I like this list.

However, now that the thread sentiment has focused on a scum team of me/Silent, he has changed his reads to match! oh dear! oh my! Please say it isn't so! But alas it is true.

For what reason does he believe that the counterwagon Silent was mafia? It's only because that is where the thread sentiment is right now. Let's look at the facts. Scott was voting Mderg the entire time because Mderg was his top scum read. Not a scummy vote. I think I was pretty clearly just looking to sheep whoever Rels accused. Silent voted to save himself. None of these votes read as scum motivated. Now why exactly is the counter wagon scummy enough for Rels to change his reads completely into believing the counter wagon is mafia?

I don't believe Rels is approaching this as a townie. He just sees that Silent and I are going to be taking the fall for this from Rels/Stutters/Moosy and has changed his reads accordingly. J'accuse!
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 02 2016 16:50 GMT
#657
On August 02 2016 13:08 -Celestial- wrote:


The fact your voting patterns match, however, is an actual thing that happened.

...I'm really going to bed now. Its ten past five in the morning. -_-

1st vote of Grack on Kelsier was obv not serious.

2nd vote I'll grant you we both had same person

3rd was mostly survival for me.

I thought you knew better than this. Are you really accusing us of mafia for this?
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 02 2016 16:58 GMT
#658
On August 02 2016 20:51 Skynx wrote:
And thats about it I guess.

Rels/Grack/Silent is possible but prolly one of them is town. Alternatively add Scott in there and make it 2/4.

Luna/KSC/btdt are really low hanging fruits, watch out for anyone pushing lynches on them early on based on activity/contribution.

Celest/Stutters/Moosy/Jroc
I won't be lynching for a while.

I'm sure 3rd scum will giveaway stuff if we keep the track on them 4 on mderg train.


Did you just put everyone that voted for Mderg as red? If so, then first where is scott? Second, explain why voting for mderg means you are scum, especially my vote since I only voted to not get lynched myself.

If that's not how you picked the reds then I want an explanation on why, because you haven't given one.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 02 2016 16:59 GMT
#659
I'm gonna post my views on the players I left out from my last big post, but it's gonna be close to deadline for night.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
August 02 2016 16:59 GMT
#660
If I have not made my post clearly enough here is my issue:

Celestial believed that me/Silent were mafia from the beginning and sees confirmation of it in the end of the day vote.

Stutters believed that I was mafia during the day and sees confirmation of it in the end of the day and comes to the conclusion that Silent and I are mafia.

Both of these make sense.

Rels on the other hand was suspecting KSC/BTDT and was not suspecting me or silent or Scott. None of the votes on the Mderg wagon seem scum motivated. There's no reason for Rels to buy into Celestial/Stutters' theory without already believing that one of us is mafia. As town I would expect Rels to ignore the wagons completely from his prior reads.
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