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Netherlands15308 Posts
On June 22 2016 00:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:i will be here in a couple of hours or so. I'll try to sleep a bit since i am really sick.  How the fuck someone gets a flu in the middle of summer?? Skynx is probably not scum since he is not taking any outs he is being given here. If it's just super good mafia play then i tip my hat to him. More likely though he just genuinely believes in what he says and how he thinks the kill went off.
exactly this lol >< i expect scum who isn't being voted to either a) be less choosy in general and hemming/hawing over who to vote cause they honestly just don't care or b) pushing for the easy (and only really) alternative to their own lynch
skynx didn't
##vote Shapelog
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On June 21 2016 05:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Shapelog have you looked at how the last ~5 hours of the night evolved? This is based on your theory answer.
Yes and,
On June 21 2016 05:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
idk where you get the "flip-flopping"...
I missed read it. Rsoul already clear that up.
On June 21 2016 05:48 CopCake wrote:
Well i would wait for rayn or rsoultin to tell me "this shapedog is newbie or styx is pretty new"
Because there are only two options in this from my point of view:
Mafia is newbie super newbie
Mafia knows me and wanted to frame me but as I said rayn is the type of person that loves to do logical things and rsoul well, she could be if the frame thing is real but i doubt it.
The problem I have with you now is like you want me to clear you from a theory you dont even know if it is like logical, you dont know me and i could have made up that lol. I cant clear you, your actions do.
Why do they have to tell you in particular?
I am not trying to clear my name from you Via this. If I was, I would be focusing on more of the probs. you have with me in regards with the forced jokes idea. You already have posted that you think of me.
The reason why I am interested in yours is that you are the only other person who suggested a frame shot. I am not sure what to make out of it rn in terms of your alignment, but it has interested me.
On June 21 2016 05:51 CopCake wrote:
Like at first i read superbia to be town because she seemed normal, your entrance was like too "friendly" jokes and with confidence, not caring, laid back. I read sup town for this and mafia to u.
Then mafia passed and sup didnt act the way i expected (lol see the importance of playing with me) and said messes up shit like "kill the dangerous townie" that thing basically was a slip, "dangerous town" would be someone dumb not someone trying to solve the game.
Alright about the change in super read.
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Eh, I do one more post towards actively defending myself before I just ignore it and (hopefully) find scum.
I plan things out as scum. This is very fucking evdicent in the scum qt's of mine. Now, you can say all you want about me being AFK or what not, but I would of already have started to talk to Super about a plan of some sorts, or have detail what I wanted to do in day 1 (as I was being town read, and most likely scum!Shape would of thought he would of reached D1) and super would of known what I was planning.
I also have a agenda that works with said plan. Tell me, what is my agenda here? Shoot Yammty, argue with people that I was frame and magically I will win? Especially with Ryan and Rsoul, who know me very well, being in the game? Not to mention, that I am super aware of how people see me as scum, and would of adapted to the situation, and not do something so stupid.
I am not going to argue if Super would or wouldn't shoot Yammto cause I really do not fucking known period. It could be for Ryan's reasoning, it could be a frame shot (Since I was afk, and could be a target) etc. I have no evdince, unlike my meta point above, to based anything on, and am not going to lead this into a a WIFOM measuring contest.
Yes, I am a cute scummer that likes cute plays sure. I also know how to play a soild scum mafia style as well, and would be doing so due to my reputation I built after storm. I am not dumb, hell, in name SL jumped me after my 1st few posts for being "cute". IK people know that I am known for this kinda Bullshit, and very few other people (certainly not anyone in this game, other then maybe cake, which I would've known anyways before shot) do what I am known to do.
I mean, outside of the shot, why am I scum? I guess you could add my defensiveness to it, yet meta wise that can go either way.
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Netherlands15308 Posts
both super and you were demonstrably afk by the time the vig shot was shifting to super -shrugs- that's the crux of the argument against you, not that you would do this knowingly as scum
if you're town, the best thing that you can do is try to find scum and convince me that way, not make flawed defenses like this that honestly, to me, are flatly disingenuous
i understand how someone with such a good scum record can think that he's good at scum, but i personally have NEVER understood how you got away with it in the first place. lylo with all but confirmed blues is retarded. you got away with it precisely because that move is SO BAD people didn't think scum could do it. that doesn't make you a good scum player. it makes you a nutter lol ><
not that i'm complaining <3 i enjoyed that win. but no, i don't find your scum play impressive. and regardless, no matter what anyone's impression of your scum play is, a kill can't be changed when the scum team is afk. the theory is sound
focus on something else
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I am not arguing that I am good, I am arguing that I plan things out.
But I am moving on so w/e
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Also
you got away with it precisely because that move is SO BAD people didn't think scum could do it.
No I won that one by scott's groceries run followed by surprise tinfoil theory case on Damdred where he tunneled himself on me being town.
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Netherlands15308 Posts
this game. you're arguing irrelevant points
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On June 22 2016 01:35 rsoultin wrote:
this game. you're arguing irrelevant points
this game, I am town folk looking for a dutch mailman on his way to deliver mail to his lover. Who was framed for the murder of said Dutch mailman, and now is getting unfairly chased by a girl with a wet noddle, who has finally caught up to me. Yet, I know if I go to jail, the real murder will walk away freely. So I must fight for my survival, and catch the perk.
Which one sounds more correct?
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On June 22 2016 01:41 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2016 01:35 rsoultin wrote:
this game. you're arguing irrelevant points this game, I am town folk looking for a dutch mailman on his way to deliver mail to his lover. Who was framed for the murder of said Dutch mailman, and now is getting unfairly chased by a girl with a wet noddle, who has finally caught up to me. Yet, I know if I go to jail, the real murder will walk away freely. So I must fight for my survival, and catch the perk. Which one sounds more correct?
it sounds like you know what you have to do but still aren't doing it. believe it or not, if i didn't care about being right or not i wouldn't be pushing you this hard. i'd just let you babble about irrelevant things. i suggest that you find the "perk" as you say if you're town...while i'm willing to accept that i bear part of the blame in being wrong if we lose, your behavior today will not win you much sympathy from me
i'm giving you all the room you need and even trying to focus you. please use it. otherwise, feel free to continue blathering about nothing if you're scum ^^ that'll make it easier for all of us
i'm not going to prompt you again
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i'm giving you all the room you need and even trying to focus you. please use it. otherwise, feel free to continue blathering about nothing if you're scum ^^ that'll make it easier for all of us
I am actually trying to build back my mood for playing mafia. My other game ended like right as I got on, and I am having probs. getting back in a mafia solving mood after it.
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Netherlands15308 Posts
On June 22 2016 01:58 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +i'm giving you all the room you need and even trying to focus you. please use it. otherwise, feel free to continue blathering about nothing if you're scum ^^ that'll make it easier for all of us I am actually trying to build back my mood for playing mafia. My other game ended like right as I got on, and I am having probs. getting back in a mafia solving mood after it.
well, it's on you ^^; not trying to be bad, but the majority of what i've been doing all day phase is attempting to keep an open mind and get other opinions, because my gut and logic says it's you but i don't want to do what i did with tumblewood lol ><
idk how to help you get your mojo back other than by not burying you and actually considering what you say when you post so...yeah. bbl
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On June 22 2016 01:10 Shapelog wrote:
Eh, I do one more post towards actively defending myself before I just ignore it and (hopefully) find scum.
I plan things out as scum. This is very fucking evdicent in the scum qt's of mine. Now, you can say all you want about me being AFK or what not, but I would of already have started to talk to Super about a plan of some sorts, or have detail what I wanted to do in day 1 (as I was being town read, and most likely scum!Shape would of thought he would of reached D1) and super would of known what I was planning.
I also have a agenda that works with said plan. Tell me, what is my agenda here? Shoot Yammty, argue with people that I was frame and magically I will win? Especially with Ryan and Rsoul, who know me very well, being in the game? Not to mention, that I am super aware of how people see me as scum, and would of adapted to the situation, and not do something so stupid.
I am not going to argue if Super would or wouldn't shoot Yammto cause I really do not fucking known period. It could be for Ryan's reasoning, it could be a frame shot (Since I was afk, and could be a target) etc. I have no evdince, unlike my meta point above, to based anything on, and am not going to lead this into a a WIFOM measuring contest.
Yes, I am a cute scummer that likes cute plays sure. I also know how to play a soild scum mafia style as well, and would be doing so due to my reputation I built after storm. I am not dumb, hell, in name SL jumped me after my 1st few posts for being "cute". IK people know that I am known for this kinda Bullshit, and very few other people (certainly not anyone in this game, other then maybe cake, which I would've known anyways before shot) do what I am known to do.
I mean, outside of the shot, why am I scum? I guess you could add my defensiveness to it, yet meta wise that can go either way.
I'll try to explain as well as i possibly can. This is not only to Shapelog but to all the players.
1. The night kill and the framing theory. If you assume the framing theory is correct, you have to assume the play goes into motion when Superbia starts calling a shot on me in thread. It basically has to, because that's when he became a reasonable shot target for the town - aka started looking scummy. Now if we go with your theory, it makes absolutely no sense for either me or rsoultin to make such play. Yamato is already a scumread for basically all the players in the game, and he hard-townreads me and townreads rsoultin. Basically regardless what yamato does, starts playing better or not, he is already in a position where he cannot possibly call either of us mafia on D1, and that makes my / rsoultin's job easier in case we are mafia. Or if he does, he will look worse than which again makes our job easier - since he will be even more likely to get lynched. That is why i completely discarded rsoultin from being mafia right after the day start. It just makes absolutely no sense for her to make the game HARDER to win, especially since what she said is completely correct, if she was mafia there is a chance that i pick up something on her, let it be a fuck-up or not and get her lynched.
2. Based on the above, i thought mafia is in you, Skynx and Cake. I don't believe in the framing theory. I don't believe it is true, even if you are town Shapelog. Just because there are too many assumptions to be made for the scumteam BEFORE the things that happened did happen. That's why it sounds utterly retarded to me. If someone framed you they would have to (1) predict 3 hours before the deadline that you are not gonna show up, (2) predict that yamato starts making irrational posts about Superbia and (3) predict that someone brings up the "Shapelog is scum" theory after the deadline (technically this could indicate rsoultin, but again -- see 1. ). If ALL of those things do not happen, scum are absolutely fucked, always. The play is just so bad it doesn't make any sense for anyone. So yes, the easiest explanation is that there is noone trying to frame you if you are town. This brings me to the following:
Who would make that night kill? You totally would -- for the reasons brought up before. Even if we completely ignore the afk thing, you could still make the kill (or Superbia), because yamato voted for you. Skynx could make the kill too, for the reasons outlined. While yamato didn't call him his #1 scum (i assume, since he voted to night vigi you) he was one of the people calling Skynx mafia. I thought Cake wouldn't make the kill, apparently she could have.
So at this point i am at
Shapelog
Skynx
Cake
Here is why i think Skynx is not mafia:
On June 22 2016 00:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Skynx is probably not scum since he is not taking any outs he is being given here. If it's just super good mafia play then i tip my hat to him. More likely though he just genuinely believes in what he says and how he thinks the kill went off.
Like throughout the day he has been presented differing scenarios that are logically sound and call someone else scum, he chooses to not take any of them. Even when at least me and rsoultin were considering the possibility of him being mafia he stood his ground. It's extremely unlike he does that as mafia. I don't think he is right in what he assumes happened, but that doesn't make him scum, since what he is saying makes sense.
Here is why i think Cake is not mafia:
Cake called out the difference in Shapelog's behavior after the deadline. There actually is a notable difference. I think that was one of the best notions anyone has made in this game, albeit it was based on one post. But it has continued, and Cake is quite good in reading into those kinda things before other people. Also regardless of what Cake says, i think she would have still shot me since i am the most likely person to get her lynched if she is mafia. I also believe, based on the PYP scum QT, if Cake was mafia Superbia probably had a lot to say in the night kill. In PYP Cake never decided the night kills, since she was busy (like she is now). If Superbia decided the kill by himself, yamato is never going to be shot here, unless again, Shapelog or Skynx (people yamato called mafia) is scum.
3. Shapelog's behavior during Day 1. Normally when flips happen, people get new information and use that information to update their reads and make conclusions from the reads. Shapelog goes to the other direction. In these posts here, here and here, he basically presents a theory and starts mulling it over. That in itself is not bad or scummy, but when the mulling over goes on and on and on and never ends up in any decent conclusion while there are decent points and arguments why, based on his theory, certain people look way more townie than the rest of the people from the group (see 1. and 2.). It just doesn't make any sense that he never comes to any real conclusion on any of the people, and that is characteristic to his scumplay. In Storm mafia for example, Shapelog was ALWAYS the last person to vote, and last person to voice his opinion. Exaggeratedly saying his scumplay revolves around hanging in shadows and just make the town lynch some other people and then wait people to call other people scum. At this moment, at least when started to write this post, he STILL has no conclusions. In my opinion those conclusions should be fairly easy to make if you just take a couple of tens of minutes to read what ACTUALLY happened at the end of D1. Shapelog has been posting a lot, yet not done this.
TLDR;
Why Shapelog is mafia:
1. process of elimination
2. last paragraph
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On June 22 2016 01:53 rsoultin wrote:
it sounds like you know what you have to do but still aren't doing it.
rofl. 
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On June 21 2016 19:44 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2016 19:29 Skynx wrote:
Shape wasn't around for Super lynch and he didn't even confirm his vote so I can take him off based on my reasoning of mafia plot. So you completely disagree with the "scum were trying to shoot the same person town shoots" argument? Why?
Nana you got it wrong. I think mafia QT was like:
Vito Corleone: yo super my boy go act scummy so they kill you then we shoot Yamato so they start day from zero. I'm gona push you aswell so they don't suspect me one bit.
Superbia: Sure papa.
Shape can't be mafia cuz he'd be around for pushing super last minute. Or at least thats how i see things.
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On June 21 2016 23:44 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2016 19:27 Skynx wrote:On June 21 2016 03:18 rsoultin wrote:
nh
i'm doing that thing again where i just can't understand the possible scum motivation for shooting yamato when super is being voted for vig shot in thread
i can't definitively say that i believe cake and skynx are cleared here (and part of me cringes at the idea of possibly being wrong on rayn but honestly i'm just never gonna vote him this game cause i'd like to trust my read on him lol ><)
but just the idea of scum willfully and knowingly voting for super WHILE shooting yamato while they could change it, or vote for someone else, idk. i just don't think that ever happens here
i don't want to be wrong, rayn, but i have a hard time seeing anyone but an afk shapelog being scum with super here. it's just such an unnecessary thing for scum to do. like we can argue that it's confusing as shit to have a yamato shot here until the cows come home, and it is, and it does make my brain hurt a bit...
but i just don't see why scum ever goes through the effort here to make it more difficult to win just cuz. like i don't think cake does this, and i don't know skynx, but i do know that he was at least present enough to vote for super and seemed to understand what we were thinking so unless he's the sort to think it would be stylistically cool...
the simplest explanation is just that it was shapelog and scum wasn't here to change their shot On June 21 2016 03:29 rsoultin wrote:On June 20 2016 06:21 Skynx wrote:
Meh i think super is goon trying to take a shot for yamato Yeah, skynx definitely understood where the lynch was likely to go if/when super flipped goon -pokes at skynx- the reason you thinking yamato was goon beforehand doesn't make you town, skynxy, is godfather would know who the goon was. that's what rayn is getting at anyway, i'd like to hear from people, especially if y'all think my reasoning's flawed I think you're misinterpreting the scum plot here. Superbia was intentionally being scummy, he wanted to get shot. GF is someone pushing for Super shot and congrats now he's pretty much blend in. We lynched the goon and they killed the only other point of argument so we have no basis to work on basically. Because we know that yamato was town and this is a more complicated path to the same end, basically. It's possible, of course, but at the end of the day it's simply less intelligent. If yama were alive right now the likelihood that town ever lynches anyone else is very small. This d1 is, you have to see, hugely more unpredictable and therefore more risky for scum. That said, you invalidated where my thoughts were going so... -shrugs-
Not rly.
If we still killed Super and mafia shot someone else, I'd doubt many people would insta join me on the vote. Imo its like way too bait for mafia to go for Yamato lynch after i called him GF hiding behind Super, i mean it'd be so obvious.
I think Yamato is a very good kill by mafia here.
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On June 22 2016 02:30 Skynx wrote:
Vito Corleone: yo super my boy go act scummy so they kill you then we shoot Yamato so they start day from zero. I'm gona push you aswell so they don't suspect me one bit.
Superbia: Sure papa.
Shape can't be mafia cuz he'd be around for pushing super last minute. Or at least thats how i see things.
The problem with this is the following:
Let's say -3 is town victory and 3 is mafia victory on the scale. Why would mafia wanna start from 0 when they can start from 2? That is the crux of the argument.
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I mean Skynx, if that is your argument, i can tell you it only applies to you being mafia.
Because i know noone else in this game thinks so. Even if you think that's what mafia could have done it is 100% certain that noone else does (well Cake says she does but... even Superbia doesn't and as i said i dont think superbia would have let cake make that kill for your reasoning).
Noramlly scum kill people who:
1. are on the right track
2. are the biggest threat to your team
3. you can't lynch
4. blue reads (but that doesnt apply here)
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On June 22 2016 02:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2016 02:30 Skynx wrote:
Vito Corleone: yo super my boy go act scummy so they kill you then we shoot Yamato so they start day from zero. I'm gona push you aswell so they don't suspect me one bit.
Superbia: Sure papa.
Shape can't be mafia cuz he'd be around for pushing super last minute. Or at least thats how i see things. The problem with this is the following: Let's say -3 is town victory and 3 is mafia victory on the scale. Why would mafia wanna start from 0 when they can start from 2? That is the crux of the argument.
Thats just another strategy of going about it. Super's behavior tells me that mafia just opted for this kind of play straight up. They could ve done what you suggested but Super would've played better if that was the case, least of all not attack you.
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Netherlands15308 Posts
-shrugs-
you may be right, skynx. the thing i often say to the less experienced scum players on my scum teams is "never underestimate the town derp"
i've considered alternatives though and this is where i ended up. all i'm going to ask of you is to consider that you could possibly be wrong and evaluate shapelog independent of your theory which (you must admit) may or may not be correct
i have independent reasons to townread all three of you apart from just "sl makes the most sense as scum to me here"
rayn: town meta (we've played a ton of games together and i'm usually right on him)
cake: clueless (w/ super, i doubt she'd be that last on the scum comp)
you: not playing to win if scum
shape: ??????? only real positive i have for him is early game was more like his town meta, but rayn's right in that this is how he plays scum late game when he has no one to buss...just waffle everywhere and hope town derps
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That is true. Knowing yamato also flipped town Superbia clearly wanted to get shot. For most of the players who were here when Superbia started getting widely scumread yamato is still the worst shot because if Superbia gets shot he is still the #1 lynch target going into D1.
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EPT
