PROFESSOR SHAPELOG'S CONTINUATION UNDERSTANDING OF THE DISSECTING OF IKIDO FILTER
PART 2. ASSOCATION VIA BEHAVIOR NEWBIE PART
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/vAfmzVX.jpg)
There once lived a man by the name of Ikido, this man was scum and was successfully lynched Day 2. We must understand everything about who that man was. Starting with a profile.
Ikido Profile: + Show Spoiler +Submissive, It was everywhere in his filter. Tone, certain posts (especially the oh well lynch me) Support, He obv. did not know about how to really lead a mafia team. Reflective: Because he is not a support (and also is a newbie) he is most likely to reflect either the coach's advice or the advice of more experience players in his scum QT. There are certain things in his filter: that last point about other players having a case against him is important to me, I don't want to mis-lynch someone, in the off chance that it's a close vote, and my vote tips the scales. That points to him listening to his team mates or not being told other wise is better. The latter could be explain that he took on the opionons of a more experience player. His views may also be latched onto other new mafia members, especially 1st time players. Minimalist, Ikido only posted enough to make him appear either towny (as evident by me and trofl saying his post looked a bit more towny) Mean he only felt like he needed to post a few things and never follow up on it. Lack of Original content also suggests this. Paranoid Is suggested by his "Just fuck it and lynch me" even though a Ikido lynch was not even picking up steam for day 1.
Summary: I believe the reminding scum team is one newbie (1st timer) and a experience player. In order to determine who could be his newbie partner. We must profile the list of 1st timers. And look for those who share Ikido thought process and slash or even could of had his thought process after his death. And, A course, those who are still alive. As i am busy man.
Things to look for in the newbie department is traits SHARED from Ikido to X. This is going to be a bit tough due to most of them not posting a lot. Still can be done.
PMT Profile+ Show Spoiler +Knows a little bit of human behavior. And Could lead team/give advice that would be taken up by a scum buddyOn January 27 2016 08:41 PepperMintTea wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 08:38 nooniansoong wrote:On January 27 2016 08:30 PepperMintTea wrote:
Shapelogseems to strike me as overexcited or nervous. I also do not believe he is reading the game carefully enough and he just spouts whatever comes into his head. At first his read of "town lean on MexicanAlien" seems rather farfetched
This seems contradictory. Nervous people don't spout whatever comes into their head. Many people talk too much or over explain to counter feeling nervous or anxious. It is a fairly common issue. Also seems to me that, if, PMT is scum. She would push theses ideas into the scum QT for ikdio. She knows that nervousness can be overcome by posting (at least she thinks so) therefore, hypercritically, she would of suggested that Ikido post more. Some Minimalist Ideals I like to say, before i quote things. That she also has done things against this. On January 27 2016 19:32 PepperMintTea wrote:
I will be here for another 10 minutes and then I have to leave,
if you have any questions then ask them now, otherwise I will get to them this evening. On January 27 2016 18:03 PepperMintTea wrote:
As to nooniansoong's point about me leaving the thread, I have to say that after my first observations I waited in the thread for probably 30 minutes or more and happily answered his questions. After it seemed no more questions were forthcoming I went to sleep as I get up early each day. It seems an unfair statement that I didn't linger because I was not wanting to be exposed when I happily answered his questions.
^ This is probly the best support for this. That she saw nothing (from a scum perspective) to push for. Therefore leaves shortly after. A course, this is hard to say for certain if she is Minimalist because of the fact she seems to have a RL excuse. And the Minimalist has not been on the same degree of Ikido. Problem solver The amount of questions show that she is digging for more info. Therefore is not a support to mafia, and instead, is a leader (or figure of power) that is trying to find info out for mafia.
Summary: Has some similar Traits. But, overall would be a leader and is not Ikido newbie scum mate.
Tumbledore+ Show Spoiler +Opportunistic On January 27 2016 11:30 Tumblewood wrote:Read over the thread, and these are my reads so far: Town: (none yet) Leaning Town: Alur, Trfel Null: PepperMintTea, nooniansong, Onegu Leaning Scum: darthfoley, _MexicanAlien Scum: Shapelog My reasoning on Shapelog:Shapelog has acted generally like a newbie scum player all game. He started the game off with about five jokes and no content. Given that this is day 1, that's not too important. I'm not sure how to feel on the weird read toward nooniansong, because it doesn't necessarily feel scummy or townie, just poorly informed. But the posts that really strike me are: Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 06:41 Shapelog wrote:On January 27 2016 06:39 Onegu wrote:
But serious Shape trying to meta read kush(nooninsong) before he even posts is weird as fuck. I am not trying to read him lol. I am just saying there is something he does and as the day(s) goes on I will look for it, if it is absent, I will comment on it. Unless your scum team kills me, in which case i can just use it later on  . and Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 07:55 Shapelog wrote:On January 27 2016 07:48 _MexicanAlien wrote:
So first shapelog suggests talking about blue roles, then he lists the reason for each blue role to not need help.
Very good reasons. Yeah i was revising the logic on it after Deathfy posted about it. Also I am always Sus. on my D1's, Both as Blue and Vt due to my reactive, blah blah blah trolling playstyle Yet to roll mafia sadly, thought this would be the one =(. In both of them, he mentions something about not being scum. Why would a townie ever do that? Why would anyone ever do that? "Unless your scum team kills me," and, "Yet to roll mafia sadly," are things normal townies don't just drop. It just screams to me, "Oh boy, what a shame I'm not mafia!" Also, "I am always Sus. on my D1's" doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I haven't played with Shapelog before. On January 27 2016 12:13 Tumblewood wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 11:48 darthfoley wrote:
Tumblewood, can you explain why you're town reading Trfel? He has four one liners so far. Which of them makes him lean town for you? I remember some slight town lean posts and nothing scummy, so that was enough to put him up there in my memory. Looking through his filter, though, there's not much to put him on one side or the other. If I had to redo that list, I'd swap Onegu and Trfel. comes in trying to find reasons to scum read me. Over the course of the game has tried to scum read people, but often finds nickpicks and board reasons to call people scum (in the same posts no less). Has done less of this yesterday, but prob. is because we said something about it. Minimalist. Look at his time stamps and his whole 2 page filter featuring bursts of activity followed by inactivness. Stubborn Has Tunneled me all game long. Might be for a russe but overall he has been a bit subborn. Picturing him more as a Support than a LeaderOn January 28 2016 14:50 Tumblewood wrote:
@Ikidomari: That was not the reasoning behind my changes of opinion. I read too much into the early, early posts and found myself having to backtrack to have opinions that made sense later in the game.
I agree for the most part on your other reads, but I'm not quite following what you said on Trfel; it seems like you're saying he both jumped on and started the lynch bandwagon. Could you clarify?
##Vote JesusIncarnate unless I see something that convinces me he's town. Half of his filter is just him answering questions directed to him. And while there is some leadership moments in his filter. Most of it is just big posts that lead to no where. Also I am not getting a leader vibe, and since i am not getting it. He is support. Paranoid OMGUS Me and Trofl. On January 29 2016 14:10 Tumblewood wrote:Protip: Don't sign up for a mafia game that happens during finals week. I'm finally back after voting this morning, here are my thoughts as I skim through the thread: Why are we seeing kush post reads with zero explanation and then saying, "Yeah, that's townie right there, looks good." Are they just weather vane posts? My gut says townie (especially since the other posts are solid), but I'm a little confused by these reads, since they're just a list of people. Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 04:04 Shapelog wrote:On January 29 2016 03:59 Alur wrote:
While I read up on the Tumblewood case.
Why wouldn't you be happy with Ikidomari? Me? Because he had so many escape paths, Practically had a "Poor me, I fucked up and i should die" attitude And Gave up instead of really trying to explain reads or push his scum reads. (Though, as a newbie, he might overprotect himself because he is being scum read as town. I did it my first game, but i was blue) Agree on all fronts, I don't know why we got so big on Ikidomari and then got cold feet so quickly. I'm seeing scum in the "I'm sorry can you please get me another chance" attitude, but also a lot of plain newbie. Townread on MexicanAlien for sticking with the vote on me even as the Kuragari wagon picks up speed. Strong townread on darthfoley for calling out people on their reads that don't make sense. Why are Kura's scumreads all "slight" or "lean"? Kura, stop, you're backing yourself into a corner with "I'm a null." You're practically begging to be lynched at this point. "I'm actually starting to get cold feet..." Why? "Meh, maybe I'm not." Not sure if this is scummy or NAI. I'm thinking NAI, but that's still weirdly unreasoned. Aaaand a mislynch. Not sure what to look for yet in VCA (am I using that right?) except that I'm not suspicious of the early voters (Alur, darth, kush... not that I was in the first place). Trfel, what's with these reads without reasons? Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 07:00 nooniansoong wrote:
I like how jesus promised to do stuff and never did. Seriously, where is Jesus this game. If he doesn't show up in the next eight hours, I don't think there's any way around lynching him. Someone can't just stay quiet, be unhelpful when they speak, and not be scummy for it. Unless we wait for a modkill? + Show Spoiler +On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote:VCA is hard. How could you do yours so fast Darth. If we assume mafia helped push the wagon, it would've happened at a point where it wasn't obvious that the lynch would go through, so were talking the first 4 ish votes. Which would be me, Darth, PMT and Trfel. Trfel coming in as the fourth looks pretty suspicious, considering I was leaning towards him being scum. But then theres this, thing (this is how Trfel acts on the Kura vote) Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 03:06 Trfel wrote:
I mean, mechanically speaking:
The best play is to simply not talk about this any more and just not lynch Kuragari42.
The reason for this is that time will make this more clear than any amount of analysis, since in time more information about power roles is revealed. Further, talking about this more only gives mafia additional information.
Unless I'm misunderstanding the situation, which is also possible, I suppose. Followed by: Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 03:15 Trfel wrote:
I guess I was misinterpreting the situation.
##unvote
##vote Kuragari42 There is no mafia motivation for saying the bolded part, but when you just "jk" it, it could appear like he's just trying to gain some sort of deniability, especially when combined with the "I think I'm getting cold feet". But PMT and Darth (who could potentially be pocketing me) aren't clear of suspicion either. I just don't have much to hinge that suspicion on currently. Also I'm not sure I understand Edens motivation for joining the wagon last minute. He didn't actually need to vote for it to happen. It seems like it could be a ploy to gain some towncred, because mafia don't need to touch the wagon anymore at that point. He also tried to discredit Kuragari's reads (who scumread him). I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch. I think I kind of like mexican for sticking with his lynch. He presented which players he would be able to lynch, and didn't back down on his reads to join the Kura bandwagon. This also coincides with the fact that he's a townread of mine. Some of this might be tinfoily, but that's because there aren't any conclusions that are staring me in the face. Strong townread for Alur on this. He's actively scumhunting, and his points are strong. + Show Spoiler +On January 29 2016 08:41 darthfoley wrote:Kuragari Wagon HistoryAlur #573 - 1st vote Kura darthfoley #574 - 2nd vote Kura; reasoning explained PMT #761 - 3rd vote Kura -immediately unvote PMT #762 - vote Onegu (Onegu only had 1 other vote at this time, from Shapelog I believe) PMT #868 hops back on Kura train - still 3rd vote - no explanation Trfefl #869 - 4th Kura vote -Previous post claims that Kura lynch is stupid -Defending Ikido from wagon -Switches off Tumblewood -No reasoning given VC AT TIME OF PMT/Trfel Votes
4 Kuragari (Alur, darthfoley, PMT, Trfel) 3 JesusIncarnate (Noon, Tumblewood, Ikidomari) 1 Tumblewood (MexicanAlien) 1 Ikidomari (Eden) Not voted: Shapelog, Kuragari, Onegu, Jesus Shapelog #871 - vote Ikido (now 4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) Shapelog #872 - unvote Ikido (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Tumble, 1 Ikido) Shapelog #878 - vote Ikido, "going with gut" (4 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) Shapelog #894 - vote Kura (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 1 Ikido, 1 Tumblewood) -Gut feeling = Ikido -Later blames going with gut on Kura vote Kuragari #935 - vote Tumblewood (5 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido) Eden #958 - vote Kura (6 Kura, 3 Jesus, 2 Tumblewood, 1 Ikido) How many times did people vote? Shapelog: 4 (PMT, Onegu, Ikido, Kura) Eden: 4 (Onegu, Trfel, Ikido x2, Kura) darthfoley: 3 (Tumblewood, Jesus, Kura) Trfel: 3 (Onegu, Tumblewood, Kura) PMT: 2 (Onegu, Kura) Alur: 1 (Kuragari) This VCA is not a masterpiece, but I think it clearly throws suspicion on two people specifically: Trfel and Shapelog. Trfel #866: Show nested quote +The best play is to simply not talk about this any more and just not lynch Kuragari42.
The reason for this is that time will make this more clear than any amount of analysis, since in time more information about power roles is revealed. Further, talking about this more only gives mafia additional information. Trfel #869: Notice that he votes literally the post after PMT comes back to the Kuragari wagon, making it 4-3 Kura > Jesus, without giving any explanation why. Also don't like posts that start like this: Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 18:07 Trfel wrote:I mean, I may be lousy at interacting with people, but believe it or not I do have some analysis ability, enough to talk about reads  Similarly, Shapelog has been on every wagon in existence: Onegu, Jesus, Ikido, and Kuragari. Gets his gut feeling mixed up (first says his gut is Ikido, later complains how his gut told him to vote Kura). There is something off about this post. I would've been okay with it perhaps early D1, but this whole "i'm so torn thing!" comes off as fake to me, especially because he only cites other people's reasons... and hasn't made one good case all game. Show nested quote +God dammit I am so Torn right now. If only I could vote two people... I am half tempting to try to find a loophole to where i can vote both my top scum reads for todays lynch. But considering how i like the Shining (CoHost) and Prince Lonemeow (host) I will not.
I think I going to vote with my gut and ##Vote: Ikidomari Though IMO both him and Kuga are up for it. Also Jesus considering the points made against him. To me, votes #4 and #5 are the votes that should be analyzed, because at 5-3 Kura > Jesus, no one was going to counter push Jesus. ESPECIALLY with Kuragari voting Tumblewood. Eden voting to make it 6-3 is NAI or maybe even slightly town, because that was the only wagon with momentum at that point. If he had hopped on and Kura had been mafia, it's a different story. In conclusion, i'm scum reading both Shapelog and Trfel I like this VCA. I agree on Shapelog and Trfel being scummy (not because of the wagoning, but it certainly puts them farther up my list), and this post voices it better than I can. Darth, Alur, and MexicanAlien are definitely on my town list right now. I like MexicanAlien's read on Trfel, but he also had a similarly confident read on PepperMintTea, who is not a suspect of mine. I think my judgment is clouded by my perception of Trfel as scummy already, but his voting / reads / questions are really odd to me. I am not going to trust kush's reads until there is a justification for them. Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 11:19 Trfel wrote:Onegu is mafia because: - Lots of commenting, but the comments have no purpose
- Most of his filter has no direction
You the first half of your filter is all random questions. I don't see much desire from you to advance the game, either. [you meaning Trfel] Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 11:52 Shapelog wrote:
Things to do tomorrow that i prob. won't end up doing:
Close read Tumble filter,
Look at Eden (like someone said we let him be lazy)
Investagte trofl scum
Post reasons why i think Ikido is mafia (or town if by a miracle he convinces me)
"Hey, guys, this is what I say, but I'm going to give myself a wide open backdoor of just saying I'm not going to do it." My top townreads right now are Alur, darthfoley, and MexicanAlien. Kush and Eden as town leans. My top scumreads right now are JesusIncarnate, Shapelog, and Trfel. Ikidomari and Onegu as scum leans. I'm not sure on PepperMintTea. I'll be back after a filter dive. Even before our major cases came out (at least i think so) And answering questions and leaving after you appear to get town cred for it. Shows Paranoid behavior (They enter, "OMG THIS IS NOT GOOD ARGGGGG" posts things. 'Oh loook they think i am more town, cya" and peaces out) Does it not bother anyone else that what tumble has done is just a more better looking thing that Ikido has done?
Summary: Tumble shares a lot of Behavor traits with Ikido. Especially paranoia.
Jesus/S2S + Show Spoiler +Cocky Do i really need to explain? On January 23 2016 11:15 JesusIncarnate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2016 05:01 nooniansoong wrote:On January 23 2016 04:57 JesusIncarnate wrote:
i am not a smurf You obviously made an account just to play in this game. What is your story? Have you come from another mafia site or were you a tl lurker without an account who wanted to try mafia? I am a mafia grand master. I have come from multiple other mafia sites. On January 27 2016 23:28 JesusIncarnate wrote:speak to me with respect mexican. I deserve it, i am above you. Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 22:37 Shapelog wrote:
@Jesus
Nice to meet you.
Is Eden town read on me the reason why you up in the air on him? pretty much. RelaxedOn January 27 2016 22:17 JesusIncarnate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 13:16 darthfoley wrote:
I promise i'm not 8 and that my vocabulary is simply exquisite sick meme Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 13:18 Kuragari42 wrote:
This filter thing is amazing.. I wish I had this in my last game.. sick meme x2 (epic sig btw) anyway. darthfoley is kind of chill, def town for me right now. There posts are quite reactionary. Trifel also a bit towny in my books. Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 15:11 Trfel wrote:
Yeah, sorry, I'm not going to give a detailed explanation of my read on PepperMintTea right now because if I'm wrong, that would be a free defense. Which is a pretty stupid thing to do.
I feel that PepperMintTea's reads show critical thinking and an attempt to solve the game, making me think that PepperMintTea is town. I won't elaborate at this time. shit post; town post. Onegu, scummy to me. Posting long essays mean nothing to me. lol people like eden are falling for the simple mafia strat for noobs "I will act stupid and hope people townread me" however i dont agree with their final post in their large manifesto. #368 Shape, scum or not, probably had someone scumreading them, but not anymore. I think the scum took not of the changing reads on shape and quickly either laid off or just changed their reads. okay so to sum this all up. I dont like onegu or shape. folley seems town. Eden is up in the air for me. trfel seems pretty town to me. other people i honestly dont care about. On January 28 2016 04:02 JesusIncarnate wrote:
@Tumblewood
i was planning on posting yesterday but I got busy. In fact i'll be a bit busy till friday.
Everyone is hating me because they aint me. /yawn just wait until i clutch the game later, you peasants will be praising me after that.
Shapelog is leaning more town now, but im not outright town-reading them. Other than that its the same. I do not feel confident in lynching Onegu however, the people on the vote are particularly shocking. I'll prob do filter posts when i have more time, as right now i can only read thread and type shit.
However, just wait. I assure you all, i am an incredibly strong player. The fact he is relaxed enough to say "sick memes" shows he is not paranoid about anything. Even though he was a null read at best. This also shows that he is not worrying about people scum reading him or even lynching him. EGOHis ego just would not allow him to be submissive. Period. In fact, i can see him even fighting the experienced player. Also he would prob. Bash Ikido too (which tinfoilly can be used to describe why Ikido gave up)
Summary: Jesus, at least, has no way in hell to be a scum partner to Ikido. Have to update when S2S decides to play.
Mexcian+ Show Spoiler +Supportive & UnfearfulOn January 27 2016 07:07 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Alright enough about meta reads
we should come up with a strategy
On January 27 2016 07:17 _MexicanAlien wrote:
I have no freakin clue what to do.
We need information.
On January 27 2016 07:31 _MexicanAlien wrote:
no blue talk it is useless (to townies) He does not know how to do the things to help town, but he sure knows what they are. He is supporting/throwing out his ideas without the fear of being called out for it. Also his latest posts (and the shit feast that happen) with him and eden also shows he is not fearful of anything AnalyticalOn January 27 2016 07:34 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Is anyone else here seeing a pattern? On January 27 2016 07:43 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Why does shapelog call his own play dumb? Shouldn't he be trying to play well? "Improve D1"? On January 27 2016 15:39 _MexicanAlien wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 15:21 Shapelog wrote:On January 27 2016 15:17 Trfel wrote:I mean, this game won't use a voting thread XD Votes are made in this thread. Initially, _MexicanAlien seemed very eager to solve the game, but then has stagnated a bit. It's seemed like he's focused on his read on Shapelog, but has felt a bit less interactive. I still feel confident that _MexicanAlien is town, my statement just shows how convinced I initially was. I really need to go to bed Onegu, once you catch up, I'd really appreciate an answer to my question to you in this post. Thanks! How is trying to read the person everyone has mixed emotion on a bad thing? I guess I could see what you mean by less interactive. Trfel is right in a way. My primary motivation is solving the game. To a player with my experience, Shapelog's comments and posts seem to very strongly suggest that he is scum. Therefor, in an attempt to solve the game (by convincing myself and others as to the identity of the Mafia), I became a little overeager and attached to Shapelog's trial. Also, when it was just Onegu, Darthfoley, Shapelog, and myself posting the game was quite simple. Simple to analyze, that is. When all these other players came on and started posting, the game became much much more complicated. Because of that, I am trying to come up with reads on different people through their opinions and posts. This is going to take me some time. Anyway, I have to go now. I will be back later in the day. And a bunch of other crap. Even goes on to say his Primary motivation is solving the game. Maybe that is just scum saying stuff to sound town, but he didn't have too. Also if he is scum then he will know who is scum and not have that Motivation. Him saying he had something for motivation, at a time that there is nothing asking him = Town in my books. Open-MindedDay 1 was me as top scum. He hold on to this tight however he later realized why other people are town reading me. Shows he can change his mind about who he thinks is scum and can get over tunneling. (personally i rather have non tunnels on lylo then tunnels who could screw over us and lose the game to scum)
Summary: Almost a 180 from Ikido
Conclusion:
So the Newbie mafia is:Tumbledore, based off of associative behavior. HOWEVER, S2S needs to be re-vaulted once he comes in. So I could see S2S actually being mafia. Though i highly doubt it. Investing jesus/S2S interactions with Ikido would not be a bad idea.
And that leaves us with the mastermind of the scum team
Who will not be founded in this post. Look i am tired and busy right now and i want to make sure i get this in because i might be busy all the rest of the day. Tomorrow or when i find time i will try to find the last member of the scum team and use behavior and filter content to find them.
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