EPT[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 9
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 27 2015 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: the lynch was terrible in the first place. If you had 100% control of the lynch, you'd have gone for xat right? I haven't actually paid attention to your xat case. linke me to it and I'll comment on it since I respect you | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 27 2015 07:05 ritoky wrote: xata, gumdrop, vivax. 2 sentences on why you didn't shennanie; go! I'd be interested to hear this btw given that Yam was being modkilled and had not returned to the thread. were you guys strongrly TRing GB, for example? On October 27 2015 07:07 ritoky wrote: if gb flips mafia, 1 of vivax, xata, and gumdrop is mafia 100% of the time. I like the basic concept, but don't draw associative tells between unflipped players. IF you think GB is scum, focus on explaining why he is scum first. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 27 2015 07:11 ritoky wrote: i mean, didn't me and chrom do that all fucking day long? not much else to say beyond what has been said. Ah, sorry, didn't mean to imply you didn't push GB, just making a statement in general about associate tells between unflipped players | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 27 2015 07:14 Xatalos wrote: Yeah I would have most likely joined on Onegu or even Hopeless at the last seconds AH MAN I WAS TRYING TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN ok, tomrrow if I live when we are shenannying it will be one HUNDO percent clear what's going on | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 03:35 Xatalos wrote: So I guess if you assume that the scumteam is something like GB/Onegu/Hopeless, then it could make sense... But even then GB preferred to lynch Onegu/Hopeless yesterday...? I could see this kind of thing as a reverse-bus, though. Let's say GB thinks he's getting lynched yesterday, and wants to set up his team to win anyways. He figures there's no way to save himself, but he can push suspicion away from his teammates by trying to push them. I don't want to speculate on associative tells between unflipped players, but I'm just saying, there's noething here that inherently makes GB/1Gu/H1 impossible, especially since: Final Day 2 Quality Control yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, raynpelikoneet (1): Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet, Hopeless1der (1): Onegu (0): Not Voting (1): yamato77 We have discovered yamato77 to be a chocolate saboteur! Day 2 has ended. Both 1Gu and H1 were in a position where their swapping could have an impact on the outcome of the lynch. 1Gu of course could even things out, but H1 in particular stayed on Yam77 even when the modkill was imminent and GB shennanies were a good choice. Not saying everyone on yam77 who didn't shennannie is scum, but we can't rule out a GB/1G/H1 scumteam based on association. 1Gu especially likely to be bad for not being on a main wagon one way or another. What's he doing voting H1? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 04:19 GlowingBear wrote: BH one question: am I mafia? You have a 40%+ chance of being mafia. I'd rather kill... let's say, 1Gu, than you. H1 isn't that bad of a choice either, though apparently this is his meta as town. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=117#2331 accurately sums up my thoughts on you yesterday and things haven't significantly changed with the yam flip. At the time, I thought you were scummy but also NOT the best lynch. The reason for my shennannies onto you at the end of D1 wasn't that you were scummier than Yam, but rather, Yam was dying anyways due to modkill, and nobody wanted to put a 2nd lynch on H1 or 1Gu. You were, and are, an acceptable lynch option. If you're trying to decide whether to NK me or not based on who I'm pushing tomorrow, well, I will not be pushing you as my primary lynch target tomorrow (pending the VCA and stuff I'm doing now), but you're still a good lynch. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:01 Xatalos wrote: Oh yeah I missed this post. I wondered a bit where GB found his quote. Is the "calling a shitstorm" referring to calling rayn scum?  Well, since we have one "free" mislynch left, I guess GB wouldn't be the WORST option. At least lynching him would solve a lot of mysteries about how the game has went. Unlike say, lynching hopeless. But lynching rayn would be equally informative and more likely to hit scum IMO... Then there's Onegu too.... We should try to avoid thinking about "free" mislynches, though. If we do mislynch tomorrow, although we don't lose, we'll be going into 4-3 LYLO, which is a pretty tall order in general. We should try to do our best to shoot for the best chance of lynching scum tomorrow, rather than speculating on what lynch will give us the most information-- unless we really really don't think we have a good chance of lynching scum. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:10 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, it's certainly better to hit scum information-wise as well... What I meant that it's kind of a coin-flip to lynch Hopeless and he wouldn't provide too much information with his flip.... Well, I guess that would depend on how the wagons form too. Now that I mentioned, I should recheck hopeless. I totally get what you're getting at here. I think Onegu has been a bit more active, and I also have a stronger scumread on him. He is a better choice out of the two of them and more likely to flip scum. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:14 Xatalos wrote: Hmmm.... I went through hopeless's filter and actually liked it surprisingly much >.> I guess it felt like there isn't any clear agenda in there? Like he was just posting whatever came to his mind? The inactivity is concerning but other than that I don't really see any great reason to think he's scum.... In general I've found 1Gu's posting significantly more problematic (as well as his various dodges, especially near the end of D2-- look where his vote is). What are your thoughts on 1Gu? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:27 gumshoe wrote: I think the argument against Hopeless could be put best by Bh. With not even two pages of filter, theres no way that Hopeless looks more scummy than anyone here / : I dont doubt that hes very careful about not slipping up, the whole notion that scum will deliver themselves to us on a platter is something I have fought with people from mah very first game. Scum are fairly capable of not looking all that scummy / : If Hopeless is town, than that means that means at least 2 scum have outclassed town enough that if even we play optimally we lose almost no matter what. Shitty, yes. But I'm not gonna vote for someone I am confident is town just because the actual town fucked up that bad / : Yeah, I get what you're saying. Bleh, what a damn pain, analyzing alignments of lurkers | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:34 Xatalos wrote: Plus I don't think hopeless's town meta is to be active/contributive regardless.. From what I remember? BH? This is accurate from what i remember but I hsven't researchedd it this gsme | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:50 Xatalos wrote: Maybe Onegu is the safe bet In terms of "maximum chance to get a scummer tomorrow" Onegu is up there I recall people saying "one of yam+gb must be scum"-- I'll go looking for the reasoning why-- do you remember why people were on about this? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 05:57 Vivax wrote: When I actually read BH's posts I gotta laugh sometimes ilu vivax tell me about your dream | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 06:06 Vivax wrote: BH rayn never was an actual scumread of yours right? I currently have a townread on rayn, based on his interaction with the hosts. He's also been gradually improving since the end of D1. I see no reason to lynch him during D3, and would be hardpressed to imagine an argument that would convince me. Admittedly, his super lackluster performance N1 and D2 are, well, super lackluster: but I know rayn and I know his rage. I'm pretty sure his anger was genuine, given that he directed it at the host and the fact that it was dripping with biting sarcasm. I can go more in-depth on this if you'd like to discuss rayn. On October 28 2015 06:01 gumshoe wrote: It was my argument. They can both be town, but they cannot both be scum (because Yamato basically went after Gb with MAXIMUM kill aggresion, ie directing marv BACK onto Gb.) It has no bearing now / : they could both be town. The application of it was that if Yam is scum, gb is town, and vice versa. Therefore you should lynch the one your most certain is scum to protect the townie between them, which if one is scum, then the other is town and needs protecting. Doesnt do much atm T_T OK, we can ignore this then. Doesn't mean GB is town but this is not a reason to automaticlaly think him scum. On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote: I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu. Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere: Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him. He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town). I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense. Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point. Yeah, there's a lot of strageness surrounding Onegu. I'm actually thinking the most concerning thing (beyond of course, the actual lack of activity) surrounding his stuff D2 is this: On October 28 2015 02:52 Onegu wrote: I didnt waste my vote. People said they were down to shennanie on to him. BH and ritoky. If some more people wanted to go I wanted them to be able and lynch scum. I am really kinda feeling Xata is scum with hopeless now. Like he was all ok yeah we can lynch him, then no we have to be safe. He really waffled on it and felt really weird to me. And yes me and hopeless are both scum, that makes perfect sense... Basically, Onegu says he was ready for shennannies and wanted to enable that, right? But he goes away a few hours before the lynch: On October 27 2015 00:26 Onegu wrote: Ill be back in a bit. Then comes back right before deadline, and here are his posts: On October 27 2015 05:38 Onegu wrote: I am here On October 27 2015 05:54 Onegu wrote: Bleh to many pages to read if it is just all going to be rayn being crazy... On October 27 2015 05:56 Onegu wrote: Getting some medicine I dont feel well. We should lynch hopeless. BH go back. Other people join. On October 27 2015 05:58 Onegu wrote: Bleh AND THEN HE'S GONE. When we need him for actual shenannies, Onegu just straight up disappears. It's not like he was actually encouraging shenannies or whatever. He just wanted to look like it, parked his vote on H1 (whether or not H1 is town, again, this isn't the point at hand) and then he fuckin peaces out. Onegu wasn't enabling shenannies-- by putting his vot eon H1, he actually STOPPED shenannnies. We needed him on GB, or, alternatively, whoever else we shenannies on (I guess we were considering him so 1Gu wouldn't want to help us with that) but the point is, this isn't someone shennannying, it's justifying a non-vote. Now, FWIW: Onegu on his own wouldn't have changed things. This is a fair and true statement. He'd have tied it up. But he didn't need to mention that the thread (I think like a few new pages, maybe 10) was too long to read. I was there, trying to direct people. I tried to engage with the man, and I'm not the only one. Everyone had questions for Onegu. He saw the wagons, plopped down effectively a non-vote and peaced. If we compare this with H1 (who at least had a vote in play) or GB (who was trying to not get lynched) I don't really see the motivation for this. I also take personal offense at a guy like 1Gu trying to hide behind My SHENNANNIES as though it gives him a right to opt out of the town discourse | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Going with a GB/1Gu/H1 scumteam (the "naive" scumteam, the three most scummy players in the game), things would have looked like: + Show Spoiler [sepculation] + Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu What immediately stands out to me about this theory is that it would mean 2 of 3 votes on rayn were by scum. Perhaps hoping to come out of it smelling like roses (and GB does stay on rayn the next day) after the slam flip. During Day 2, GB and 1Gu are on off-wagons, but both actually have completely the ability to kill yamato over GB. As it stands, they don’t look implicated by the Yamato flip. There’s nothing inherently broken about this possibility. Not saying this makes this scum; but we can’t rule them out based on association alone. The scumteam could work. I think in general, looking at the first VCA highlighting: Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu The thing we notice most is how unlikely it is scum was forced to have a hand in the slam wagon. Even if 3 of the 5 votes on slam are scum, they could ave dispersed elsewhere and still avoided a no-lynch during D1. During D2, you had several close wagons and almost certainly then, by definition, some kind of scum meddling in the wagon outcome. Chosing to disperse rather than consolidate IT hink explains the Onegu vote quite nicely. If GB is really town, scum wouldn’t care at all— they’d all be voting like Onegu (though GB’s vote makes no sense regardless of his alignment) and raynpelikoneet. Actually, rayn’s vote raises my suspicion of him here, just because looking at how close things got, I Can’t help but think rayn on GB (given that he was hard TRing yaamto) could have made the difference! So, in summary GB’s vote on rayn doesn’t mean anything. I think Rayn and Onegu both deserve more scrutiny (Though Onegu is the only guy I’m scumreading out of the two of them) for what went down at the end of D2. Lastly, VCA does not RULE OUT a GB/H1/1G team— though of course I will not rule in teams as groups. You don’t draw associative tells between unflipped players. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 28 2015 06:21 Vivax wrote: Cmon man you type up 6 lines and in none of them is an answer to what I wanted to know. Can you please tell me if you ever scumread rayn in this game? Yes. I scumreaded him quite strongly after the end of D1. I even voted him, and that vote was serious. I was irked by his argument with the hosts, and it took me somet ime to wrap my head around it and realize he was town. | ||
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