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On September 02 2015 23:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
What's the point of lynching a confirmed 3p? Seems like a waste of a lynch.
No, it's not. Damdred claimed after the ritoky ML that town would lose if it got to LYLO with him in it. After tonight we'll be at 3 town, 1 3P and 1 mafia. So effectively, tomorrow is LYLO for us. Each townie has to try and figure out which of the other 3 townies is mafia. Damdred has to choose between 4 townies. The odds of a ML are high. If we lynch Damdred, we go to true LYLO with 2 town 1 mafia. It should be a lot easier for town to figure it out.
It also eradicates the possibility that Damdred might have a win con that is zero sum with town.
This only makes sense now that Damdred has claimed the game ends at LYLO with him in it, and if there is only one mafia. But Damdred has already said that if there's two mafia, town lose after tonight ANYWAY, so we can rule that out.
That's my reasoning, anyway.
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On September 03 2015 00:50 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2015 23:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
What's the point of lynching a confirmed 3p? Seems like a waste of a lynch. No, it's not. Damdred claimed after the ritoky ML that town would lose if it got to LYLO with him in it. After tonight we'll be at 3 town, 1 3P and 1 mafia. So effectively, tomorrow is LYLO for us. Each townie has to try and figure out which of the other 3 townies is mafia. Damdred has to choose between 4 townies. The odds of a ML are high. If we lynch Damdred, we go to true LYLO with 2 town 1 mafia. It should be a lot easier for town to figure it out. It also eradicates the possibility that Damdred might have a win con that is zero sum with town. This only makes sense now that Damdred has claimed the game ends at LYLO with him in it, and if there is only one mafia. But Damdred has already said that if there's two mafia, town lose after tonight ANYWAY, so we can rule that out. That's my reasoning, anyway.
At the same time, we would also lose the game if mafia has been withholding a nuke or something. Rather than 2 town and 1 mafia, it could be 1 town and 1 mafia and game over. I think we need to try to take out the mafia tomorrow instead.
The only reason to lynch damdred would be if he is some type of non-survivor third party role like a serial killer, arsonist, or serial poisoner. If he is indeed one of those roles, I think that means the mafia likely only has 4 players and were wiped out with the chezinu kill. I haven't put a lot of thought into this scenario to see if it adds up, but my gut tells me not to lynch damdred.
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Technically that would be the safe play, but if he has an alternative win con what was the point of him sticking his neck out forms the way he did?
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*for me
Phone posting lol.
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Idk, I'll consider everything if I'm still alive tomorrow.
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On September 03 2015 01:01 JudgeJudy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2015 00:50 Fidei86 wrote:On September 02 2015 23:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
What's the point of lynching a confirmed 3p? Seems like a waste of a lynch. No, it's not. Damdred claimed after the ritoky ML that town would lose if it got to LYLO with him in it. After tonight we'll be at 3 town, 1 3P and 1 mafia. So effectively, tomorrow is LYLO for us. Each townie has to try and figure out which of the other 3 townies is mafia. Damdred has to choose between 4 townies. The odds of a ML are high. If we lynch Damdred, we go to true LYLO with 2 town 1 mafia. It should be a lot easier for town to figure it out. It also eradicates the possibility that Damdred might have a win con that is zero sum with town. This only makes sense now that Damdred has claimed the game ends at LYLO with him in it, and if there is only one mafia. But Damdred has already said that if there's two mafia, town lose after tonight ANYWAY, so we can rule that out. That's my reasoning, anyway. At the same time, we would also lose the game if mafia has been withholding a nuke or something. Rather than 2 town and 1 mafia, it could be 1 town and 1 mafia and game over. I think we need to try to take out the mafia tomorrow instead. The only reason to lynch damdred would be if he is some type of non-survivor third party role like a serial killer, arsonist, or serial poisoner. If he is indeed one of those roles, I think that means the mafia likely only has 4 players and were wiped out with the chezinu kill. I haven't put a lot of thought into this scenario to see if it adds up, but my gut tells me not to lynch damdred.
I hadn't considered the possibility of further nukes. That does change things around a fair bit.
But I do want to know why Damdred has changed his tune on whether or not we should go to LYLO. "Reasons" is not enough of an answer.
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On September 03 2015 01:09 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2015 01:01 JudgeJudy wrote:On September 03 2015 00:50 Fidei86 wrote:On September 02 2015 23:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
What's the point of lynching a confirmed 3p? Seems like a waste of a lynch. No, it's not. Damdred claimed after the ritoky ML that town would lose if it got to LYLO with him in it. After tonight we'll be at 3 town, 1 3P and 1 mafia. So effectively, tomorrow is LYLO for us. Each townie has to try and figure out which of the other 3 townies is mafia. Damdred has to choose between 4 townies. The odds of a ML are high. If we lynch Damdred, we go to true LYLO with 2 town 1 mafia. It should be a lot easier for town to figure it out. It also eradicates the possibility that Damdred might have a win con that is zero sum with town. This only makes sense now that Damdred has claimed the game ends at LYLO with him in it, and if there is only one mafia. But Damdred has already said that if there's two mafia, town lose after tonight ANYWAY, so we can rule that out. That's my reasoning, anyway. At the same time, we would also lose the game if mafia has been withholding a nuke or something. Rather than 2 town and 1 mafia, it could be 1 town and 1 mafia and game over. I think we need to try to take out the mafia tomorrow instead. The only reason to lynch damdred would be if he is some type of non-survivor third party role like a serial killer, arsonist, or serial poisoner. If he is indeed one of those roles, I think that means the mafia likely only has 4 players and were wiped out with the chezinu kill. I haven't put a lot of thought into this scenario to see if it adds up, but my gut tells me not to lynch damdred. I hadn't considered the possibility of further nukes. That does change things around a fair bit. But I do want to know why Damdred has changed his tune on whether or not we should go to LYLO. "Reasons" is not enough of an answer.
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Agreed.
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Maybe I vanillize Damdred?
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Actually do we know how kp works?
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The game is basically over if it's Damdred and two mafia.
Can they carry out 2 kp with one member?
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The op isn't updated and parsing this thread is hard lol.
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Has it been discussed if kp is carried out by individual mafiosos or not?
It might have been earlier but I can't really check.
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Don't be isiots I never said town would lose I said the game would be over.
I'm a survivor, its over foe me once I get to lylo one town votes for mafia one votes for town and I just do whatever.
If you guys want to be bitches I will 100% lose the game foe town tonight by telling mafia exactly what to do to win.
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Like I really don't want to be a bitch here especially when I've been town siding but wasteing a day of lynch with killing me over someone you think is really likely to be mafia is stupid.
And you are scared of basically lylo with me in it....but not scared of lylo of me not being in it. That's so stupid
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On September 03 2015 01:49 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Has it been discussed if kp is carried out by individual mafiosos or not?
It might have been earlier but I can't really check.
rit was convinced it was carried because he is able to block it I guess?
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Sorry, I'm just running scenarios in my head.
I don't know. I'm just gonna use my power and hope for the best tonight.
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I'm not upset at you obi... You aren't seriously thinking of lynching me.
just vanillaizing me which is ok
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Let me be clear. I think it was a decent to great idea to nuke Damdred, idk like 2-3 days ago. It would've prevented wasted checks on him etc. But look, here's how it goes. It's really fucking stupid to from D1-D4 not want to lynch him and not want to nuke him only to get fucking ants in your pants at or around lylo. That's just fucking stupid. Like you made the decision to ignore him and instead nuke FF, lynch ritoky, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see damdred dead because I want to know his role/wincon 100%. But that time has passed. The decision overall was to fucking lynch other people and nuke/shoot other people for 4-5 days now. You don't get to change your mind now. PERIOD!!!!! That shit is dumb. You made a decision to keep him around with the express plan of allowing him to get to LYLO. You don't get to say that well, if he's not a survivor we lose in lylo so we should lynch him.
No fuck that. That's fucking stupid strategically. You either follow with your plan and read, etc of him being survivor or you lynch him days ago. Get the fuck out with that shit. You shitheads/mafia wanted to lynch ritoky A FUCKING GREENCHECK over him yesterday. I'm putting my foot down. No. I wasn't part of the "keep Damdred around" crowd, but I'm not going to let you fuck shit up even more. You're going to listen to me. You're going to lynch the fuck out of TicTock tomorrow. Period.
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On September 03 2015 02:12 Damdred wrote:
Like I really don't want to be a bitch here especially when I've been town siding but wasteing a day of lynch with killing me over someone you think is really likely to be mafia is stupid.
And you are scared of basically lylo with me in it....but not scared of lylo of me not being in it. That's so stupid
Damdred, I'm not being a 'bitch'. I was floating the idea that killing you meant that we went to lylo with fewer options than we will have tomorrow. It would also mean that we could avoid turning the game into a coin flip of which way you'd vote. Honestly, town trusting you would be pretty naive at this point. Don't pretend to be butthurt, because it isn't convincing. You'd be saying the exact same thing in our position.
The only argument to not lynch you is that Mafia might have nukes or an vig shot or something (or another vote rig ...). I think that's probably enough. But, again, don't pretend like you have town's best interests at heart because we know you're 3P, not town. Whining doesn't become you.
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On September 02 2015 11:00 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2015 10:33 Damdred wrote:
Sorry was just getting off work.
I'm confirmed 3p survivor so nothing to be paranoid from me at this point.
However there are two people who most people question pretty hard. That is tt and jj.
I think tt gets lynched no matter what tommorow. If we could have one more confirmed going into tommorow would be good probably or at least not confirmed rb Alright.
After thinking about this a bit more, if you are actually town obi, then the play here would be to use your role on TT. With the night hit, there will be six players remaining. Based on yesterday's lynch TT has his double vote and his vote steal which means TT has three votes. That means TT controls 3/6 votes which is enough to secure majority first and lynch whoever he chooses. If he is town, then no big deal, but if he is mafia then game over.
I still haven't decided who I think is more likely scum since I still want to read through both of you again (I'll probably end up rereading the whole game since its likely lylo with damdred around). If you think I'm likely mafia and want to use my role on me, then so be it (let me know if you have any questions that could change your mind), but taking away the vote rigging is the safer play.
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EPT
