| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On August 31 2015 10:38 ritoky wrote: Important question to everyone but damdred: Do you think there's 1 or 2 alive? 1. If there are 2 it means that there was 5 Mafia, a traitor and a jester, alongside 14 town. Taking into account the jester and traitor lynch, that really doesn't leave town many mislynches. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On August 31 2015 10:39 Fidei86 wrote: Before the inevitable ritoky/OWS flame, I will say that yes, I will re-read the other filters. And I will keep listening and interacting. But that's what I'm thinking right now. No this is important because if you're town you're in the process of throwing a game in which we have lynched 3 straight mafia. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
ritoky geript judge fid the swap to rayn after tube had already moved....so compelling....ugh. maybe i will just RB judge tonight to resolve his alignment cuz i don't see a compelling reason to lynch him... which leaves me @ OWS and TT....or the good ole lynch the survivor, try to block a kp, and see who they kill sending us potentially to lylo if 2 strat....but fuck that strat. | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
Seems like it's basically beyond repair at this point anyway. | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
hahahaha This sucks. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:01 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Can someone just block or check me or something so I don't have to worry about proving my towniness anymore? Seems like it's basically beyond repair at this point anyway. didn't u claim untargetable void of all blahh blahh? | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:03 ritoky wrote: didn't u claim untargetable void of all blahh blahh? Oh no I'm totally targetable. It just turns out that I take away someone's powers when they visit me. | ||
|
Damdred
15669 Posts
so why lynch me or even think it. | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:08 Damdred wrote: Rit its pretty obvious I'm survivor and I'm town siding at this point. Or else the game would be over at this point. so why lynch me or even think it. Would it though? Would it really? | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:08 Damdred wrote: Rit its pretty obvious I'm survivor and I'm town siding at this point. Or else the game would be over at this point. so why lynch me or even think it. it's a stupid thought which is why a dismissed it. it was mostly spun from greed of wanting to try and stop a kp tonight, but also some potential scenarios i don't particularly like such as: f5 2 town 2 mafia and you -> 3p gets to choose who wins essentially (which is actually a large reason why i dislike 3p roles in general, but that's a story for another time), same thing @ final 3 if you get there too. then there's the paranoia of you having a non-survivor win condition. but really i am probably just gonna lynch 1 of TT and OWS today, it was worth considering for a moment tho even if it's ultimately stupid. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
| ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:27 ritoky wrote: hey obi, how's that who's mafia list going for ya? I'm boldfacedly not taking care of it right now. | ||
|
JudgeJudy
188 Posts
![[image loading]](http://33.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0am6uj8RJ1rqr624o1_400.gif) After the KSC flip, I decided to re-read for a fresh outlook. Prior to looking back through the filters of everyone in this game, something obviously didn't add up. I had town reads on every single player remaining. As we all know, that can't be possible. That means that an assumption that I was making earlier has a whole. I started thinking that I had messed up on my town read on obi or that maybe TT was playing the long game, but as I started putting together a post, neither really stuck and I eventually ditched them. ritoky was the second to last guy that I read through and I really think there is a compelling argument that proves that he is mafia. Looking through his filter, I was reminded about some of the things that bothered me about his play early on in the game, but got swept under the rug due to the other events of the claim and the cop check that was revealed on him. However, after taking another fresh look, I was able to formulate a case that shows how his play has been so scummy all game long. I've highlighted the major points in bold below. The Blazinghand Role During the first two cycles of the game, ritoky role played his Blazinghand role to the max. He claimed that the hosts present a random target to him each cycle. During the day one and day two cycle, he announces his RNG target, proceeds to make a flimsy case against them, and votes for that player at the end of the cycle. I want to highlight how brilliant of a claim this is. The toughest part about playing mafia is providing real opinions that look townie. By claiming that he has to vote for his rng target, he is free to push them the entire cycle, while avoiding the rest of the game. Is there an important lynch going down? Who cares! He is sticking with his random vote. There is a VERY important distinction that I want to make here. He claims that he must vote for the rng player to receive his upgrade. HE IS NOT REQUIRED TO ACTUALLY PUSH THAT PLAYER FOR A LYNCH. A host does not make a role where they tell you who you need to lynch each cycle. I doesn't happen. It would be pointless for that player to play. It's one thing for him to have claimed his role, state that he will be forced to vote for a certain player the first two cycles, and then proceed to play the game like a perfectly normal townie, pushing the lynches in the thread that he deems scummy and sharing tons of opinions on the way. What he decided to do instead is proof that he is playing in an anti-town manner. He votes Fidei right off the bat due to his RNG explanation and proceeds to shape every single post Fidei makes into a mafia read. He never wavers and he sticks with his RNG read throughout the day. I'm not going to spam this post up with blocks of quotes because it is already going to be long enough, but read his filter during the first two cycles. Look at how much focus he puts on this RNG targets and how he is completely oblivious to the rest of the game. Day two is even worse. He puts together a case on FF, his new RNG target, which he can't honestly push with a straight face. This is a guy who he had a town read on before and now because of the RNG he is suddenly going to tunnel him hard all day. I'll focus more on this part below, but he uses his "RNG" excuse to completely ignore the other lynches, most importantly, the rayn lynch on day two. It has been a while since day one so the whole Blazinghand random vote nonsense isn't fresh in everyone's mind, but looking back it is beyond scummy. What type of townie decides that they are going to play in their own little world for the first 144 hours of the game, ignoring the first two lynch cycles completely to push lynches that are completely chosen at random? All for a single shot? You could give me three shots and that still wouldn't be worth it. Like I said, he could have simply voted Fidei and FF and pushed legitimate lynches if he wanted, but he chose to use his roleblock as an excuse to distance himself from the game. No townie would do this. He got away with it for a while, but we shouldn't forget about it simply due to the fact that he starting playing once the LT and chez red checks show up. The Upgrade Conundrum ritoky later tries to justify his RNG nonsense by claiming that it was part of his upgrade. On August 29 2015 08:00 ritoky wrote: yeah i knew my upgrade from the jump. On August 29 2015 07:49 ritoky wrote: were other people's upgrades not explicitly stated to them? that's news to me. The evidence shows that he is lying here. ritoky is the only player in the game to claim to know his upgrade. Every other player that has flipped learned about their upgrade at a later point in time. In fact, the hosts mentioned that the upgrade conditions were going to be sent out to players who failed to meet them so they knew what they were. So that is essentially proof that the upgrades were hidden until night two. ritoky made a mistake here to justify his blatant anti-town claim during the first two cycles and goofed by justifying that he had a reason to do so. It doesn't make sense for 20 different upgrades to work one way, while one other role works a different way. I just don't buy it. The Lynches This is the strongest part of my argument so please read this part carefully. I'm focusing on his behavior during the first two cycles of the game because I think that gives us the biggest clue into revealing his alignment. Day One Throughout the entire day one cycle, ritoky was on Fidei. That is simply not acceptable from a town standpoint. There is a an incredibly highly contested lynch going on. chezinu and rux were going back and forth the entire cycle. It was tied for large portions of the day. At the end of the cycle, it ended at a 7 to 5 count. Avoiding either wagon and voting for a player that has absolutely no chance to get lynched is really anti-town at that point. Now at this point I theorize that that mafia team did not realize that chezinu was the traitor. I won't fault ritoky for attempting to save chezinu on day one, because from ritoky's perspective I bet that he thought it was a town vs town wagon. Mafia love to avoid these by voting elsewhere because it doesn't matter to them who flips and they want their vote elsewhere so they don't look bad when the town player flips. However, what I will fault ritoky for is how he approached the day one lynch. He avoids the single most important talking point during day one, which was ruxxar vs chezinu. He never shares an opinion about chezinu and only brings up ruxxar once, mentioning that he had the largest filter at the time, which is really irrelevant. On August 21 2015 11:17 ritoky wrote: dunno bout dat ruxx lynch doe. the claim blue and fuck off is sketch, if you gotta fuck off you might as well just full claim the role. even vet, if they gonna waste rb + kp on you n1 then that means secure shots + invs + prots + etc. that being said, he didn't really do much scummy imo. he just said a bunch of incoherent stuff. defaulting to RNG or a lurker was probably a superior option. Do you know when he finally got around to talking about how the rux lynch is bad? AFTER HE FLIPPED TOWN. He brings up the blue claim and mentioned that rux "didn't really do much scummy" after the fact. If he felt that way, why didn't he step in prior to the lynch? Why is he holding back his opinion while voting fidei who has a total of two votes? Mafia love to talk about how a lynch was bad after the fact because they didn't play a part in lynching him. What is important here is that he didn't put any effort into saving him either. Day Two Here we have the most important lynch cycle in the game. The mafia PGO is one of the strongest powers they could possibly have at their disposal. I've seen games where a PGO type role has taken out like 5-6 players single handily. Especially in an all blue game where there are so many investigative type roles, the mafia is really going to rely on having rayn take out a couple during the night. This is especially highlighted by the fact that LT tried to suggest players checking rayn on multiple occasions throughout the game. For the mafia to have a decent chance of winning, they needed their PGO to live past day two. Furthermore, it was a contested lynch. There were several different parties that could have been lynched that day. Day 2 Votecount Fecalfeast (2): ritoky, Bill Murray Rels (5): Chezinu, geript, raynpelikoneet, Lord Tolkien, Tubesock Yamato77 (3): ObiWanShinobi, yamato77, Rels Chezinu (1): Breshke The Shining (1): KelsierSC raynpelikoneet (5): Damdred, Tictock, Fidei86, The Shining, JudgeJudy geript (1): Fecalfeast Compliments to our friend ritoky for the colored day two vote count :p There were three different individuals that could have easily been lynched towards the end of the cycle. One was mafia and the other two weren't. There was only five votes on Rels, but at least four of them came from flipped mafia so we know they REALLY, REALLY, didn't want to lynch rayn. It's so rare that you see so many mafia voting together, but it really highlights how important the PGO role is to them at this point. They're willing to stick their neck out for a player like rayn who hardly even has any posts. Now lets look at where ritoky comes in. For the second cycle in a row, he avoids the main bandwagon and votes for a player who simply isn't going to get lynched. There is one rule that always applies to the game of mafia as town. Your vote is your strongest tool. Now two cycles in a row, ritoky has chosen to completely discard his vote, while avoiding the topics that are so vital to discuss. Can you envision a scenario where a town ritoky has no meaningful input on the lynch for two cycles in a row? I can't. At the end of day one, ritoky makes a list post containing his mafia reads. He mentions that ritoky is his NUMBER TWO scum read at that point, behind fidei. This is what he brings up: "rayn - subs in and does balls. not town rayn, maybe cuz sub and not initially in the game but he is giving 0 shits so pressure him until he does or lynch him." Surely he will bring him up again during day two right? He moves off fidei so in theory, rayn should be his number one read. He doesn't even mention rayn again until rayn flipped. This was the guy that ritoky thought was mafia. Yet when it comes to actually lynching rayn, he wants know part of it. What I found really interesting is that at one point TT asked about who would be interested in moving over to rayn. ritoky actually quotes this post and calls TT town for it, but he doesn't even reference rayn in the process. Instead rayn is voting for FecalFeast per his "rng role". But guess what? FECALFEAST WAS ON HIS TOWN LIST. So not only is he passing up the opportunity to push his mafia read in rayn, he is pushing a player he stated was town prior to receive FF as his "rng" target. Day Three I don't have much to say about day three. At this point, LT is already looking really bad so it's pretty irrelevant whether or not ritoky voted him because there was the red check out here. There wasn't a whole lot on LT on day one and two. ritoky listed LT on his town list for the vig claim and suggested that he will re-evaluate later on in the game. Once rayn flips he includes Lt in a process of elimination list and eventually ties him and chezinu together, but I think we all did at that point. The Alignment Check We are at a point in the game where we need to focus on behavioral analysis, not blue roles. This comes up nearly every themed game where mafia wins. If you go back the last twenty large themed games, I bet at some point the host chastises the players for focuses on roles so much, rather than the behavior that makes players mafia. You can't rely on the blue roles to win the game. Mafia is a game of imperfect information. As town, we don't know all the tools that mafia has to work with. We already know that mafia has a godfather and a framer. We don't know if they have a second godfather or framer ability, even if it is one-shot. We don't know if mafia has a busdriver. We don't know if mafia has some type of mirror role. What we do know is that mafia has at least one other role that messes with cop checks because FecalFeast's check did not resolve correctly. Something important to remember is that the framer is alive on night two at the time of the check. Now mafia has two ways they can use the framer. They can either frame a town player to look mafia or they can frame a mafia player two look town. Try putting yourself in mafia's shoes at that point to think about how you would use your role on night two. What is the best case scenario for mafia framing a town player? A cop happens to check them, they come up red and the town player is lynched. That's great, but it's only one town dead. Now what is the best case scenario for a mafia framing a mafia player? The mafia player gets checked a town and is essentially confirmed for the rest of the game. That is how you win a game. More often than not, town will stick with the check because it's the simplest explanation. Think about the swing between a mafia ritoky getting checked as mafia and a mafia ritoky getting checked as town. If he comes up red, the game is essentially over. rayn is dead. tube has a nuking coming his way. LT is in an awful position beyond redeeming. The fourth mafia would really be their only hope. That's why I think it's so likely that the mafia used their godfather to cover, rather than to frame on night two. If ritoky is mafia, I think it is very likely that he would have been the mafia's choice for the cover. He came out looking bad after the rayn lynch so he would need some way to confirm himself, but he is a decent player who can carry the game if he does get checked. I'm not saying that the check is completely invalid and that we should ignore it. What I am saying is that if you look at all the evidence that suggests that ritoky is mafia, a single blue role interaction isn't enough to warrant the assumption that he is town. Behavior is far more important and his behavior points towards him being scum. Even Rels, the guy who checked ritoky had him at the top of his lynch list prior to death. That shows how little faith Rels had in the check. The HTS Kill If you're going to argue that ritoky is town based on him being the target of the framer being so unlikely, you can't ignore the fact that we have a claimed watcher who witnessed only ritoky visiting HTS on her death. Now I am be biased here, but personally I think HTS was a miserable framer target. She was giving opinions and seemed invested in the lynch. I'd say she was in my top two town reads by night one. But that is beside the point. Fidei claimed that ritoky was seen as the only player visiting ritoky on night one. Half the Sky died that night, which means either ritoky had visited her and targeted her with a kp or the godfather happened to carry out the kill. That means there was a 50/50 chance that the godfather did not carry out the kill on HTS, which would mean ritoky did. Keep in mind that I'm not basing my read on ritoky on this alone. Solving the games by blues is not a reliable way to win the game as I mentioned earlier. However, this simply strengthens the case against him. In fact, I'm not even arguing that ritoky didn't roleblock HTS. Mafia roleblock their night hit targets all the time and HTS would have been a good choice as one of the strongest town players. If mafia were going to RB HTS in her death, they wouldn't send the godfather to kill her because that would mean both ritoky and the godfather would visit her, while the other hit would be carried out by a non-godfather. Like I said, this part is just speculation and the strength of the argument lies with the actual behavior above. Some people will argue that it doesn't make sense for ritoky to claim the roleblock on HTS because it will make him look bad. I don't put much merit into this arguement. First off, mafia don't want to lie unless they absolutely need to. If he claims to have not visited HTS and gets outed by a role, he is done for. In fact, that exact scenario could have happened this game with fidei's watcher claim. Think to yourself, what is more important? Losing a bit of town cred that nobody will care about in the long run or taking a gamble by fake claiming an action that will almost certainly get you killed if you ever get caught. The Roleblocker Claim I wouldn't be surprised if ritoky was a roleblocker. That doesn't mean he is a town roleblocker though. Mafia almost certainly have a roleblocker in this setup. The problem is that he hasn't used his ability in any way that benefits town. He hasn't roleblocked any kp. He hasn't roleblocked any meaningful mafia night actions. Instead, he is roleblocking the town watcher and the claimed third party survivor. Think about it. You have a role that can be used to not only block the mafia kp, but also confirm the player who you blocked as mafia because the mafia kp is missing. Would you ever consider roleblocking damdred, the guy who has about the worst chance of carrying out the mafia kp in the game? In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia didn't also have a factional roleblocker ability to use on top of that. In a setup where there are so many blues it almost seems like a necessity. I've seen mafia get two different rbing powers in a ton of games. If I remember correctly, I think one of onegu's previous themed setups even had the factional roleblocker. The Yamato Shot I put a large amount of thought into this part. An argument for why ritoky could be town is "why did he shoot yamato" and "why did he claim the shot". I can only theorize at this part because I don't have complete knowledge of the setup or anything. I think he claimed the shot for similar reasons to claiming the HTS visit. If you shoot a player who looks terrible, no big deal, people will get over it. If you get tracked or watched to a kill and let town assume it was a mafia kp, then you are in hot water. He already claimed in the thread that he had a kp to use, so he had to shoot someone at that point. I'm not going to argue that yamato was a bad shot because I could have seen myself doing the same thing, but that doesn't mean it automatically makes him town. Mafia could have just as easily shot yamato because he looked so anti-town at that point. You may ask, why claim the shot to begin with? Why not keep it hidden and shoot someone better? My best guess is for town cred. If you're taking out the guy who is likely going to be the topic of discussion and the lynch the next day, you come out looking good. ritoky missed out on his chance to earn town cred with the rayn lynch so there is no way he would survive a lynch against someone like Rels, myself, TT, or fidei. This was his best chance at using a confirmible night action to make himself look good. Remember, he didn't know he was shooting the jester. He probably thought he was shooting a trolly town player and was going to come out looking good in the process. "I'm Confirmed!" During the last 48 hours, ritoky has brought up how he is "confirmed" because he launched the nuke on chezinu during day two. At this point, a mafia ritoky needs to cash that nuke in for as much town cred as possible, because if he is the only mafia remaining, he is going to end up in a 2v1 LYLO situation against several other players who are looking rather good at that point. The fact is, mafia almost certainly did not know chezinu was a traitor on day two. Chezinu did not receive his ability to initiate a quicktopic with a player until night two. How else would the mafia team have known chezinu was mafia at that point? I suppose a rolecop or weird other ability that we don't know about, but the simplest answer is that they didn't. Yet here ritoky is calling himself confirmed town numerous times for nuking a player, which mafia didn't know was mafia. There isn't any town cred to be earned here because in fact, he was likely nuking a player he thought was a trolly town. Lynching chezinu isn't going to earn you any town credit either. He was a dead man with or without your claimed roleblock. If you wanted to earn town cred, you should have played the game when it mattered during the first and second cycle. Conclusion ritoky is mafia There is little evidence that supports the idea that ritoky is a town player attempting to solve the game. He uses his RNG role as an excuse to avoid the major discussion topics during the first two cycles. Rather than voting for his RNG target and playing the game normally, he proceeds to tunnel his RNG targets the entire cycle while ignoring the actual lynch and failing to share opinions about the players that are about to be lynched. He attacked the rux lynch after rux had already flipped town. He listed rayn as one of his scum reads, but never mentions him again until after the flip. He claims that he was acting this way because of an upgrade, but his role does not work the same as every other player in the game. A cop check alone is not enough to justify his behavior, especially in a setup with a flipped framer. He was seen as the only player to visit HTS on day one. He brags about how lynching the traitor should confirm him as town when in reality it is meaningless. You may think to yourself that there is a post or role interaction that makes you think ritoky is town, but you need to look at the big picture. I'd be lying if I said I was 100% myself. I'd feel like a complete idiot if I was wrong after spending so much time on this. However, one minor detail here or there doesn't outweigh the fact that he has been playing like mafia all game long. I think the best shot we have at ending this game today is to lynch ritoky. The court has spoken. + Show Spoiler + I know someone is probably going to quote this and type "TL;DR;", but please take the time to read this. I just spent like 3 and a half hours on it. It will probably take you 10 minutes to read through. Don't skim it. Read through every part and please comment on what you think. There is nothing more frustrating than putting together a large case and then having it ignored by everyone else. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:28 ObiWanShinobi wrote: I'm boldfacedly not taking care of it right now. classy | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
Let's get to work. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
| ||
|
JudgeJudy
188 Posts
![[image loading]](http://ak-hdl.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr01/2013/5/30/14/anigif_enhanced-buzz-2410-1369939749-19.gif) On August 31 2015 11:34 ritoky wrote: Oh goodie, something to tear to shreads. Go for it. Just make sure to address everything and not cherry pick. I've spent enough time on mafia today though, so I'll catch up with the thread and respond tomorrow afternoon after work. | ||
|
ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
On August 31 2015 11:34 ritoky wrote: Oh goodie, something to tear to shreads. I'm listening. (Btw, that was a very entertaining case to read. There were a bunch of bits that I liked but we'll see how this plays out.) | ||
|
Damdred
15669 Posts
Like its possible but tha means on one night they could have 3 rb who,h might be diving into the setup a bit much. However IF this was so I'm not sure what the play here was with geript confirming another person town by blocking what is perceived as a useless power by geript himself to an extent. Unless you think both rit and geript are town. | ||
|
Damdred
15669 Posts
| ||
| ||
StarCraft 2 StarCraft: Brood War Dota 2 League of Legends Counter-Strike Heroes of the Storm Other Games |
|
RSL Revival
herO vs sOs
Zoun vs Clem
Replay Cast
The PondCast
RSL Revival
Harstem vs SHIN
Solar vs Cham
Replay Cast
RSL Revival
Reynor vs Scarlett
ShoWTimE vs Classic
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
SC Evo League
Road to EWC
Circuito Brasileiro de…
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
