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Wow, no one is here. I should have waited for longer to get reactions, then.
Well, someone on the scum team probably knows already. So it's free to say in the open. Scum actually has plenty of incentive to counterclaim when town is in MYLO, since all they need is one mislynch. Normally, scum can't counterclaim because after the real town is lynched, they will be lynched themselves, and a one for one trade is good for scum. However, that isn't the case any more.
First and foremost, Breshke's play makes absolutely no sense whatsoever from a town perspective, unless he was trying to draw a shot. But that doesn't seem to be indicated in his filter, he seems to be trying to draw out a counterclaim (in this case, a fake claim). And while I could definitely see mafia counterclaiming here, I can also very easily see the real vigilante counterclaim. So basically, Breshke's plan seems to be attempting to draw out the mafia to counterclaim on himself (a seemingly vulnerable target) and then rescind his claim, and have a solid townread actually claim vigilante, thus dooming the scum counterclaimer. Breshke, is this a correct interpretation of your intentions?
The glaring problem with this is that if the real vigilante counterclaims first, he gets absolutely nothing from it.
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Furthermore, if we have a real veteran, they should counterclaim Breshke.
I would say more, but this is a newbie game. Thus it's not appropriate.
However, perhaps next newbie game, we should make sure that everyone gets coaches?
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The worst part?
Now I have to play the game. This is so interesting. Even if it's an unbelievable mess and destruction of everything that mafia is supposed to be, it's extremely interesting.
So much for that paper I have to write.
Anyway, I apologize for getting a bit heated this game. I'll try to settle down. There's really nothing to get upset over, it's not like I've never messed up (or even that I've been playing all that well this game). It's a game for fun, winning is secondary.
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On April 16 2015 12:26 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 12:25 The Shining wrote:On April 16 2015 12:23 Trfel wrote:
Furthermore, if we have a real veteran, they should counterclaim Breshke.
I would say more, but this is a newbie game. Thus it's not appropriate.
However, perhaps next newbie game, we should make sure that everyone gets coaches? I've played 3-4'games here, I think. This is 4th or 5th. I hold n illusions, I am definitely still a newb. he probably means me dude dw it fine I have to claim here or town just keeps going the wrong way. He's right.
Let's be honest. If he really is the veteran here, he never gets night killed. And with a vigilante who already fired, scum just roleblocks their target consistently, so the veteran is worthless until the roleblocker is dead.
To focus town's discussion in the right way, it's definitely worth it for him to claim when he did.
I apologize for my words, they were not called for. What happened happened, time to move on.
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Also, now that the veteran has claimed, I again suggest the possibility of a no lynch. The night kill doesn't really matter at all any more, it's just a question of time. And I would kind of appreciate the extra time.
Again, if no one else would, that's okay, we can just lynch today.
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Can everyone agree on this?
If Breshke is not actually the veteran, he absolutely gets lynched here. No possibility whatsoever for him to rescind his claim.
If The Shining is not actually the vigilante, he absolutely gets lynched here. No possibility whatsoever for him to rescind his claim.
Therefore, it is imperative that if Breshke is not the real veteran and/or The Shining is not the real vigilante, that the real power role(s) must claim as soon as possible. Just to make it absolutely clear.
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On April 16 2015 12:50 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 12:42 Trfel wrote:
Can everyone agree on this?
If Breshke is not actually the veteran, he absolutely gets lynched here. No possibility whatsoever for him to rescind his claim.
If The Shining is not actually the vigilante, he absolutely gets lynched here. No possibility whatsoever for him to rescind his claim.
Therefore, it is imperative that if Breshke is not the real veteran and/or The Shining is not the real vigilante, that the real power role(s) must claim as soon as possible. Just to make it absolutely clear. This is just opening it up for mafia to fakeclaim and then we fight it out on who is scummier Breshke or whoever claims. Is this any better of a position? If it's going to happen, I'd rather it happen sooner than later.
Those who post without counterclaiming lose all chance of counterclaiming (at least, in my eyes). It is simply disastrous for town to have a late counterclaim.
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On April 16 2015 12:55 Tubesock wrote:
We also lose out on more information. If mafia know/believe the claims, then it doesn't give town any information on the nightkills but gives mafia their next two targets easy and no one has to explain why they are alive assuming a top "town" is mafia. Night kills aren't going to say very much at this point anyway.
Sure, settling the claims now gives scum more information. But it gives town far more information (two roles and two confirmed town, while scum already knows the alignments).
I don't care who mafia shoots. Town needs the truth right now, or there is no way to win the game. Power roles are a supplement to analysis, not a substitute.
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To answer The Shining:
My personal preference is (and always has been) a no lynch. However, no lynching has to be widely agreed upon, and it's not something worth arguing about. I will follow the thread sentiment on this one, as I must.
The blue claims absolutely affect my increased desire to no lynch. One of the main reasons to lynch today was to kill the roleblocker and buy another mislynch, but now this won't happen.
The Shining, do you not realize how complex this all is? You can't simply expect me to have all of the answers.
You're town until counterclaimed. And at this point, only Bourneq really has the chance to try and counterclaim you (anyone else had better really make it worth the wait).
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On April 16 2015 13:13 rsoultin wrote:
in the meantime i'm not sure that it's a good idea for vet to cc if breshke is fake-claiming again -_- meh Let's assume that Breshke is mafia.
If the real veteran is currently a townread player, they claim, and Breshke dies. Good!
If the real veteran is currently a scumread player, then they're in a rough spot. But if they don't claim, town basically loses automatically. And since they will not be shot, they need to claim. This also gives town as much time as possible to try and figure out the truth.
Am I wrong in this assessment?
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On April 16 2015 13:21 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 13:09 Tubesock wrote:On April 16 2015 13:03 The Shining wrote:
Trfel, you've been flip floppy a lot today. You offered no lynch, then back tracked. Your eon reaction seemed a little fake. You let off some anger then rescinded it.
Now you're back to no lynch. Could this be because you know who the blues are now?
What is your current read on me? My recent actions. My vig claim. I need you to stop posting flip flops and find scum/start poe.
HTS defended you when I called you out on your vote to hammer Dwarf mislynch over prpl. This could explain HTS nk. If she's dead, she never revisits Trfel. If Breshke is in fact vet, then that's 3 town on Prpl. Stutters, hts, breshke. The other is jjb, who I'm not convinced is town but this is partially due to bias from our last game together.
RSo, I'd actually like to see your current thoughts on JJB.
This, coupled with the fact that Trfel hammered Dwarf, shows me Prpl is scum. Whether it was Breshke panicking and setting up to bus Prl, or Trfel hammering to save scummate Prpl, the conclusion is still that Prpl is scum in this world.
I think I'm voting Prpl, provided Bresh isn't cc'd.
Note: I'm on the subway typing this post. No phone service. The last post when I started was Breshke's unvote post. Anything after that, I haven't seen or read yet so I apologize if the timing of this post seems awkward. Did you notice the other person who immediately noticed that Half the Sky was vigi shot? Do you mean the fact that Trfels reaction that I called fake had already assumed Stutters was vigi shot? And was that you trying to get me to slip? I shot Stutters, not HTS. Is it not obvious who was vigilante shot and who was nightkilled? Half the Sky was the obvious night kill, clear as day. The only other possibility was Breshke, for his various mentions of power roles and setup speculation. No vigilante would shoot Half the Sky, and no mafia team would shoot Stutters695 instead of Half the Sky here.
Are you really suspicious of me for this?
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The other big point is that Half the Sky was already suspected, and by rsoultin no less, and came through very cleanly. If she survived that, it just made her look even better and it's obvious that she was unlynchable. Rsoultin had not been tested at all by that point, and Half the Sky was (slightly) more universally townread. It's obvious.
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On April 16 2015 13:27 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 13:25 Trfel wrote:On April 16 2015 13:21 The Shining wrote:On April 16 2015 13:09 Tubesock wrote:On April 16 2015 13:03 The Shining wrote:
Trfel, you've been flip floppy a lot today. You offered no lynch, then back tracked. Your eon reaction seemed a little fake. You let off some anger then rescinded it.
Now you're back to no lynch. Could this be because you know who the blues are now?
What is your current read on me? My recent actions. My vig claim. I need you to stop posting flip flops and find scum/start poe.
HTS defended you when I called you out on your vote to hammer Dwarf mislynch over prpl. This could explain HTS nk. If she's dead, she never revisits Trfel. If Breshke is in fact vet, then that's 3 town on Prpl. Stutters, hts, breshke. The other is jjb, who I'm not convinced is town but this is partially due to bias from our last game together.
RSo, I'd actually like to see your current thoughts on JJB.
This, coupled with the fact that Trfel hammered Dwarf, shows me Prpl is scum. Whether it was Breshke panicking and setting up to bus Prl, or Trfel hammering to save scummate Prpl, the conclusion is still that Prpl is scum in this world.
I think I'm voting Prpl, provided Bresh isn't cc'd.
Note: I'm on the subway typing this post. No phone service. The last post when I started was Breshke's unvote post. Anything after that, I haven't seen or read yet so I apologize if the timing of this post seems awkward. Did you notice the other person who immediately noticed that Half the Sky was vigi shot? Do you mean the fact that Trfels reaction that I called fake had already assumed Stutters was vigi shot? And was that you trying to get me to slip? I shot Stutters, not HTS. Is it not obvious who was vigilante shot and who was nightkilled? Half the Sky was the obvious night kill, clear as day. The only other possibility was Breshke, for his various mentions of power roles and setup speculation. No vigilante would shoot Half the Sky, and no mafia team would shoot Stutters695 instead of Half the Sky here. Are you really suspicious of me for this? I am! But I could be wrong. I thought Stutters was blue hinting pretty good. Plus, he was showing signs of turning on his towniness. Anyone with reasonable TL mafia experience could see that Half the Sky was the night kill there.
She made a legacy, carefully posted it with maybe ten seconds to End of Night. Who else was a top night kill? Breshke is the only possibility.
Stutters695's "blue hinting" was garbage. If he really is blue, that's extremely obvious, and of course mafia saw it. Honestly, that phrasing should only be used when you're under extreme suspicion, such that it's nearly necessary to claim outright anyway. That's why scum shouldn't give any real weight to it, given the context and circumstances.
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On April 16 2015 13:28 Tubesock wrote:
Stutters was also trying to initiate contact and dialoque with Prplhz. He was trying to lead town and become a consensus builder.
You can totally disagree, but this shows you are not thinking about the game as much as you are letting on. Stutters695 was playing fairly well towards the end.
But THAT DOES NOT MATTER WHATSOEVER FOR THE NIGHT KILL. Half the Sky is a proven player, townread by everyone, already survived pressure from rsoultin (arguably the hardest hitting player in the game, regardless of her alignment), and has been consistently playing at a high level and driving town. And Half the Sky was extremely vocal about lynching prplhz, so you can't argue that Stutters695 was killed for this reason.
Instead, you suggest that mafia would kill someone who is still (at least somewhat) suspected by several people (myself included), and who only recently started playing at a truly high level? For that one sentence that some people decided to (in my opinion, stupidly) interpret as a blue claim?
It's quite possible that by the end of Day 3, Stutters695 would have been a universal townread. But why would mafia take a gamble when they have a sure thing? There is no reason to assume that Stutters695 would become more townread or more influential than Half the Sky. Mafia doesn't take chances, mafia goes for the solid plays, especially in a newbie game with two straight mislynches.
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On April 16 2015 13:35 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 13:31 Breshke wrote:
Um so I also was one who "knew" stutters was vigi shot and not HTS if you look at my vigi claim i said i shot stutters. It was trefels psot that amde me actually think about it and when you do its obvious. Like anyone who was going to shoot HTS wouldn't have waited this long.
So if your going to start pushing scum on people for saying stutters was vigi shot you should include me.
Right there. You still had to "think" about it. Plus, I'm still heavily considering you to be mafia, so yeah of course I'm going to push it on you too. But you're not as immediate either. I thought about it before the night ended. Long before. And I decided that mafia would kill Half the Sky. Come End of Night, there was no more thinking to be done.
If anything, I think that this shows that I have a reasonable awareness of what is happening in the thread such that I can predict the night kill (to be fair, it's not hard to do at all).
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On April 16 2015 13:40 Tubesock wrote:
I don't think you can just immediately KNOW. Maybe it's just my point of view though. I think Stutters could have been a good night kill also. I have to check to see if you were towning STutters or not. If you weren't then you may have a good argument. But if you were towning him it's something I'm going to be thinking a lot about.
Anyway, I have a hockey game. Be back in a couple hours. Well, I wasn't townreading him.
I hate using player experience as an argument. But I want this settled once and for all. Tubesock, I've played more games of mafia on TL than you have. I was able to predict the mafia's night kill before it happened, through methods that I have already described. Furthermore, two other players have agreed with me that the night kill was obvious.
You don't really have any grounds to assume that I am incapable of predicting the mafia night kill in this case, especially given that rsoultin and Breshke expressed similar sentiments.
Imagine me scumreading Holyflare for catching mafia when I couldn't see it myself, because he couldn't possibly have seen something that I didn't. It wouldn't work out at all.
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On April 16 2015 13:44 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 13:37 Trfel wrote:On April 16 2015 13:28 Tubesock wrote:
Stutters was also trying to initiate contact and dialoque with Prplhz. He was trying to lead town and become a consensus builder.
You can totally disagree, but this shows you are not thinking about the game as much as you are letting on. Stutters695 was playing fairly well towards the end. But THAT DOES NOT MATTER WHATSOEVER FOR THE NIGHT KILL. Half the Sky is a proven player, townread by everyone, already survived pressure from rsoultin (arguably the hardest hitting player in the game, regardless of her alignment), and has been consistently playing at a high level and driving town. And Half the Sky was extremely vocal about lynching prplhz, so you can't argue that Stutters695 was killed for this reason. Instead, you suggest that mafia would kill someone who is still (at least somewhat) suspected by several people (myself included), and who only recently started playing at a truly high level? For that one sentence that some people decided to (in my opinion, stupidly) interpret as a blue claim? It's quite possible that by the end of Day 3, Stutters695 would have been a universal townread. But why would mafia take a gamble when they have a sure thing? There is no reason to assume that Stutters695 would become more townread or more influential than Half the Sky. Mafia doesn't take chances, mafia goes for the solid plays, especially in a newbie game with two straight mislynches. Point isn't that Stutters was a good nightkill or not. Point is that you immediately knew it was HtS. I agree she's better. You didn't pause to consider it or anything. you immediately was like "No lynch" then how many posts later "bah we can lynch". I think this is all an act man. Anyway I have to leave for reals. You really think it would be a good idea for me to vocally argue for a no lynch while other people want to lynch? So we have the normal argument of who to lynch, and the additional argument of whether or not to even lynch?
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On April 16 2015 14:06 The Shining wrote:
I think I can buy Trfels defense of his eon reaction, at least for now. Bresh also assumed Stutters was my shot, as did RSo, and I knew it was my shot. It's wifom at best to argue Trf couldn't know which was NKd. But this doesn't mean I think Trfel is town. The flip flopping doesn't feel right, even though I towned him before.
Hence why I'd push Prpl. Votes don't lie. Every scenario I come up with leads to Prpl scum. Him flipping scum also gives us the most information.
Especially since he's apparently one of Trfels strongest town reads.
Or we no lynch, I die tonight(1 less Prpl lynch supporter) & town has one less confirmed town to go with. This could be Trfels scum motivation for a no lynch, if he is scum. We gain no new info but one less confirmed town.
I'm not completely sold on Bresh either but without a cc, I have to believe for now. Why don't votes lie? Votes don't suggest anything. I don't see a reason to be sure that we've ever seriously had scum up for lynch.
Sure, prplhz narrowly avoided being lynched, and town died instead. But how does that say anything, other than some of us were wrong?
And I already said that if prplhz continues to play in this fashion, I can't continue to townread him. I need to take a detailed look at his meta.
I'm not going to make any careful reads until the later part of the day. I have a paper to write, I'm busy. I'll keep up with the thread and share thoughts, but I won't seriously push anything until I'm confident (which I can't do without an extremely detailed analysis).
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On April 16 2015 14:11 The Shining wrote:
Ebwop: stupid fucking phone. Last question should be:
You don't think if Breshke voted you with Prpl, the other 2 scum wouldn't join in and make sure you got to 4 first? Then it becomes a vote race. A shitty one, as the counter wagon would've likely been me.
Looks like an attempt for scum to win. Hm, this actually makes a lot of sense.
It's a terrible reason to scumread prplhz, but it does negate the reason to townread him (pushing on rsoultin).
Tubesock also gets no town points for trying to push on me, since it is so soon after prplhz got town points (now retracted) from pushing rsoultin. It doesn't work twice (or in this case, once).
I'll take a very close look at prplhz tomorrow.
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EPT
