EPTno it makes them spontaneously combust! o.0 toad confirmed town ^^
TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 294
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Ow ow ow, my eyes, they burn!.... I knew I shouldn't have opened that spoiler. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17322 Posts
CHUPAZI  | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
So the town consensus is currently that both vigis are town and just for reference most of these posts happened around EoD1 + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2015 07:12 Superbia wrote: If mafia is not putting rb or kp (kp is riskier due to probable medic in setup) on a tracker (assuming that he is), it is a huge risk for mafia, as he can essentially solve a big part of the game by himself. If mafia plays it safe they allow the vigi situation to resolve during the night. I say let's put the ball in mafia's court. I have plenty of others I want to lynch outside of the two vigi wagons. On March 21 2015 07:21 Superbia wrote: HF. Give me a small push more and I'll vote on BM. Are you familiar with his meta? Also what do you think of having a wagon on SL or LS? On March 21 2015 07:30 Superbia wrote: Are you going to strongarm this BM lynch? I've asked multiple times regarding an SL or an LS wagon. Whatever. It's your fault if BM flips town though. On March 21 2015 07:35 Superbia wrote: Just ask yourself this one question: Where the fuck are SL and LS at? Also Slam? So for superbia to be mafia he would have to be saying he doesn't want to vote for EITHER of the town vigi's. Instead he would be repetedly suggesting his mafia partners LS or possible partners SL (and for that last quote) slam to be lynched. I don't see what the point of this play as mafia is. Superbia would have to think that there is zero chance people would listen or take him up on anything he said. which i do not think he believes. So assuming both the vigis are actually town i'm going to make some of those rpe flip associations everyone loves. SL superbia and LS can not all be mafia together as superbia would be pushing no agenda Eod. This means there is AT MOST one between SL and superbia. I also find that last quote really strange if superbia slam and LS are all mafia together because it feels super risky for no reason because there's two "town vigis" that people were happy to lynch between but instead superbia pushes on 2 people with a mini push on another and we are meant to think that 2/3 of these people are his mafia partners. It just seems like such an odd risky play. Not sure if this makes sense btw so if anything needs clarifying ask away | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
The lynch was between Vivax / Toad / BM at that time and I'd think a veteran mafia player would be smart enough to figure that out and just bus to look good because the bus isn't happening anyways with how fast the thread was going at that time. I don't think superbia is that kind of player so it does indeed make him look a bit better. Not sure how much though. If we go with Rayn as mafia I could easily see him point that out to his buddies and just tell everyone to make whatever it takes to look good later in the game because the lynch is just between those 3 anyways. | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
On March 24 2015 16:07 Breshke wrote: Okay so this is what has been bugging me about superbia being scum. So the town consensus is currently that both vigis are town and just for reference most of these posts happened around EoD1 + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2015 07:12 Superbia wrote: If mafia is not putting rb or kp (kp is riskier due to probable medic in setup) on a tracker (assuming that he is), it is a huge risk for mafia, as he can essentially solve a big part of the game by himself. If mafia plays it safe they allow the vigi situation to resolve during the night. I say let's put the ball in mafia's court. I have plenty of others I want to lynch outside of the two vigi wagons. On March 21 2015 07:21 Superbia wrote: HF. Give me a small push more and I'll vote on BM. Are you familiar with his meta? Also what do you think of having a wagon on SL or LS? On March 21 2015 07:30 Superbia wrote: Are you going to strongarm this BM lynch? I've asked multiple times regarding an SL or an LS wagon. Whatever. It's your fault if BM flips town though. On March 21 2015 07:35 Superbia wrote: Just ask yourself this one question: Where the fuck are SL and LS at? Also Slam? So for superbia to be mafia he would have to be saying he doesn't want to vote for EITHER of the town vigi's. Instead he would be repetedly suggesting his mafia partners LS or possible partners SL (and for that last quote) slam to be lynched. I don't see what the point of this play as mafia is. Superbia would have to think that there is zero chance people would listen or take him up on anything he said. which i do not think he believes. So assuming both the vigis are actually town i'm going to make some of those rpe flip associations everyone loves. SL superbia and LS can not all be mafia together as superbia would be pushing no agenda Eod. This means there is AT MOST one between SL and superbia. I also find that last quote really strange if superbia slam and LS are all mafia together because it feels super risky for no reason because there's two "town vigis" that people were happy to lynch between but instead superbia pushes on 2 people with a mini push on another and we are meant to think that 2/3 of these people are his mafia partners. It just seems like such an odd risky play. Not sure if this makes sense btw so if anything needs clarifying ask away No one wants to lynch one of the two veggies except maybe me. You cant really get anything off of that your logic is pointless mafia is clearly just following town sentiment. Or the more logical conclusion... | ||
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
On March 24 2015 16:36 Toadesstern wrote: I don't think the "pushing no agenda EoD" part means anything if the three possible lynches are all town. You just don't have to push any agenda as mafia in that situation and do whatever you think will make you look the best. The lynch was between Vivax / Toad / BM at that time and I'd think a veteran mafia player would be smart enough to figure that out and just bus to look good because the bus isn't happening anyways with how fast the thread was going at that time. I don't think superbia is that kind of player so it does indeed make him look a bit better. Not sure how much though. If we go with Rayn as mafia I could easily see him point that out to his buddies and just tell everyone to make whatever it takes to look good later in the game because the lynch is just between those 3 anyways. I understand what you are saying about not having to push an agenda as that was looking back what LS was doing and i half noticed it at the time. But superbia wasn't not pushing an agenda he was pushing two people, SL and LS. I just feel like it is a bad play if you start pushing people to "look good later" because it would actually make you look bad if you dont keep pushing them in the next phases. Of course I realize this is mostly irrelevant because if SL is town superbias play as mafia at EoD makes some sense. | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On March 24 2015 17:03 Breshke wrote: Also this has probably been mentioned but if onegus mason partner isnt eden, trefel or maybe artanis im all for lynching him tomorrow if i'm onegu's mason partner i'm gonna flip a huge shit | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 17:05 Eden1892 wrote: This XDif i'm onegu's mason partner i'm gonna flip a huge shit | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On March 24 2015 16:07 Breshke wrote: Okay so this is what has been bugging me about superbia being scum. So the town consensus is currently that both vigis are town and just for reference most of these posts happened around EoD1 + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2015 07:12 Superbia wrote: If mafia is not putting rb or kp (kp is riskier due to probable medic in setup) on a tracker (assuming that he is), it is a huge risk for mafia, as he can essentially solve a big part of the game by himself. If mafia plays it safe they allow the vigi situation to resolve during the night. I say let's put the ball in mafia's court. I have plenty of others I want to lynch outside of the two vigi wagons. On March 21 2015 07:21 Superbia wrote: HF. Give me a small push more and I'll vote on BM. Are you familiar with his meta? Also what do you think of having a wagon on SL or LS? On March 21 2015 07:30 Superbia wrote: Are you going to strongarm this BM lynch? I've asked multiple times regarding an SL or an LS wagon. Whatever. It's your fault if BM flips town though. On March 21 2015 07:35 Superbia wrote: Just ask yourself this one question: Where the fuck are SL and LS at? Also Slam? So for superbia to be mafia he would have to be saying he doesn't want to vote for EITHER of the town vigi's. Instead he would be repetedly suggesting his mafia partners LS or possible partners SL (and for that last quote) slam to be lynched. I don't see what the point of this play as mafia is. Superbia would have to think that there is zero chance people would listen or take him up on anything he said. which i do not think he believes. So assuming both the vigis are actually town i'm going to make some of those rpe flip associations everyone loves. SL superbia and LS can not all be mafia together as superbia would be pushing no agenda Eod. This means there is AT MOST one between SL and superbia. I also find that last quote really strange if superbia slam and LS are all mafia together because it feels super risky for no reason because there's two "town vigis" that people were happy to lynch between but instead superbia pushes on 2 people with a mini push on another and we are meant to think that 2/3 of these people are his mafia partners. It just seems like such an odd risky play. Not sure if this makes sense btw so if anything needs clarifying ask away I think we might have overstated how willing the mafia would be to lynch a vig claim over a non-vig claim. I'll explain why in a minute but first: Toad, earlier you said this: On March 23 2015 15:50 Toadesstern wrote: speaking of which. I TOTALLY HAVE MORE BULLETS Explain. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 23 2015 15:48 Eden1892 wrote: i might hit 5k this game depends on whether or not they rb rsoultin On March 23 2015 15:50 Toadesstern wrote: speaking of which. I TOTALLY HAVE MORE BULLETS as in "go RB me" posted in all caps for comedic reasons as I did not believe anyone would take that serious | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 23 2015 14:52 Toadesstern wrote: I don't know about vivax but I only had 1 bullet... | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
So yeah anyway I don't think the mafia would be especially scared of a vig enough to go out of their way to lynch one over a non-vig townie. They can just rb a vig who's threatening to shoot mafia or let the singleton shot go through. So I think the mafia's agenda for eod1 would absolutely have been "do whatever makes you look cleanest." And I think there's plenty of room for mafia!Superbia to appear to want to lynch mafia!LightningStrike here. I made this point when I initially argued Superbia was mafia - for all his talk of wanting to lynch LS he never actually voted for LS. You can see how quickly the wagon formed on Bill Murray near the end. LS had 3 votes on him for quite some time. How hard would it have been for Superbia to get LS lynched if he wanted it? His vote makes 4 and leaves LS as the biggest counterwagon to either vig train by far. Just notice how he's basically begging HF to vote for LightningStrike instead of Bill Murray, but then he never actually puts his own vote down on LS to force HF and company to vote LS to get a counterwagon to either vig. So while it's pretty reasonable analysis, Breshke, I end up disagreeing with the main conclusions from it. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If anything I find it quite likely that mafia might even want to get BM over any of the vigs hoping for either a reapeat of d1 that just means a shitton of chaos and will end up as Toad vs Vivax lynch or for the vigs to shoot each other during n1. If both vigs are town that is highly beneficial for mafia. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Honestly right now, it's kinda hard to find reason to reassess this lynch list: 1. Superbia 2. ritoky 3. Alakaslam 4. Palmar when there's basically no activity to speak of from the entire list. ritoky maybe but Superbia bailed on the game, Slam bailed on the game, Palmar is still floating around but might as well have bailed on the game... It's kinda like when you're playing MTG and it's time to sideboard and you have all these sweet cards you wanna board in, but you're like, "WTF do I board out for this matchup?" I could start writing up reasons why Toad fake-cc'd Vivax or Onegu is secret mafia with whoever he declares as his mason partner, but why change anything when all 4 of my suspects make a lot of sense, none of them are doing anything to change my mind and only one of them (ritoky) even appears to care to? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On March 24 2015 17:35 Toadesstern wrote: the entire point about why mafia would want a vig dead was based on people saying there has to be mafia between Vivax and Toad during d1/n1 to begin with. If anything I find it quite likely that mafia might even want to get BM over any of the vigs hoping for either a reapeat of d1 that just means a shitton of chaos and will end up as Toad vs Vivax lynch or for the vigs to shoot each other during n1. If both vigs are town that is highly beneficial for mafia. Agree with the idea that they want to keep the vigs around as ML bait d2/d3. That seemed to be a pretty major sentiment behind why people didn't like the Bill Murray wagon | ||
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