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The Rest, Part Deux
Player List:
1 sicklucker
2 Vivax
3 rsoultin
4 Toadesstern
5 LightningStrike
6 Alakaslam
7 ExO_
9 Onegu
10 Breshke
11 Superbia
12 Fecalfeast
13 Palmar
14 Trfel
15 raynpelikoneet
18 Artanis[Xp]
19 Damdred
20 Eden1892
I probably should have included FF with the other reads, since it's similarly easy to make, but three is a pretty number so I decided to save him for this post.
This post is why Fecalfeast is town, given that LS confessed. I regret skipping over this post d1, I skimmed it and went "ehh" and then didn't really think too hard about it. But look at the nuance in his analysis. He really digs into how LS is bringing things up and compares his meta reads to LS's town tendencies (like the observation, oft repeated since, that LS asked other people to post prior games and make his meta cases for him in essence instead of doing it himself). Then when he could have been the deciding factor in lynching a town vig, he stays on mafia. Even knowing now that LS had irl issues to deal with, LS is probably one of the poorest bus targets you could have. He's hard to read if you aren't very careful and meticulous in your observations, and it's very easy to look like you have too much information. You really have to be right for the right reasons when it comes to LS. And besides, how easy would it be for mafia just to be like "Oops, guess LS was mafia, I figured it was just LS's normal game" if LS ever gets caught? It's just such a weird bus target. Fecalfeast is town.
Second, Breshke is town. I've played with Breshke as both alignments before, and although this level of activity is more within his scum range than his town range, the quality of that activity is what distinguishes him in my mind as town. Breshke is one of those players who has a lot of trouble posting when he's mafia, and it shows. Generally when he's making insightful observations, he's town. When he's mafia he doesn't go for the TMI, "look at how useful I'm being" angle, he's more of a lurker who gets by on minimal effort. Posts like this are why Breshke is town. This is a good observation and is key to a later read of mine. You'll also notice that it's a followup to a previous question he had, another good townie signal. it's easy for mafia to lose track of something they asked in a huge thread like this - remembering to follow up later, especially when the point is actually good, is a pretty townie sequence.
Third, sicklucker is town. Y'all are just gonna have to trust me here. I'm gonna explain it, and it's not gonna be anything he can't necessarily do as mafia, but you're gonna believe me here because I'm slowly becoming pretty good at meta-reading sicklucker (not as good as I do with rsoul and probably never as good, but increasingly reliably good). sicklucker is displaying the inquisitiveness that I associate with his town game. His activity level has finally become acceptable there as well. If I'm wrong about anybody in my town pile it's probably SL, but I still feel pretty confident he's town. He's bouncing around in the thread chasing whatever weird angles he has to pursue. He needs to keep doing this obviously, and if you see him slack off and one of my scumreads turn up then feel free to disregard this read. But for now I think he's town because he's showing that he cares about figuring shit out and he's within his town range of activity.
continued...
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The Rest, Part Tres
Player List:
1 sicklucker
2 Vivax
3 rsoultin
4 Toadesstern
5 LightningStrike
6 Alakaslam
7 ExO_
9 Onegu
10 Breshke
11 Superbia
12 Fecalfeast
13 Palmar
14 Trfel
15 raynpelikoneet
18 Artanis[Xp]
19 Damdred
20 Eden1892
Lol is that 3 people left to identify with 3 scum remaining? Don't worry, I'm not just using POE.
ExO_ is mafia because...
- He drops his lines of questioning and doesn't revisit them proactively. You have to drag this guy to the waters of his own recollected thoughts. He spent a long time early in d1 harassing and badgering me, and as soon as I say something of value he just decides that I'm "okay now" and doesn't pursue any other questions. If he were town, with so much info to sift through and a suspect with the largest filter in the game at the time, he would not have just dropped this.
- He's a dick. And I don't mean that being rude makes you mafia. I mean that his whole emotional disposition is so out of whack with the thread that it's hard to believe he's a townie. He just fails the room temperature test so hard. Reading his filter you'd think town wasn't about to solve this game today. He was grouchy about how d1 went down even though by all metrics (except mislynching lololol) it was a great first day - lots of information hitting the thread, plenty of discussion fodder for a lot of people to prove themselves town.
- There's a bunch of complaining and whining and shit-stirring at people for whatever things - for me getting mad, for HF mislynching someone - and then no impetus to do anything to fix the problems. I'll be honest, townies sometimes do this too, but it's usually associated with mafia in my experience. Townies, when they think the thread direction is bad, usually try to do something about it. It's mafia who just call it out to soft-suspect the people driving the thread (like me and HF) without trying to fix what they perceive as anti-town direction.
- The LS association. Basically look at Breshke's notes I cited from the last segment here.
Superbia is mafia because...
- He mad salty y'all. Sometimes in the thread he just goes on a spastic raging hissy fit. With Superbia, being angry for no reason is generally mafia-indicative (c.f. Imperial Mafia).
- His "interactions" with LightningStrike are suspicious. I put that in quotes for a reason; there's not really interaction. They talk past each other. Superbia "scumreads" LS for inactivity/lurking a couple of times but then doesn't really push him much. He even asks LS a pretty good question about LS's bad question to me... and then does nothing with it. He also repeatedly whines for an LS wagon to start, but as soon as one happens he's nowhere to be seen; in fact he never votes for LS at all despite clearly "suspecting" him for quite some time. Meanwhile LS townreads Superbia for a fluff reason in his big reads list and then when given the opportunity to say something about Superbia after my questioning... doesn't.
- I still think my questioning Superbia about the Damdred/sicklucker thing was meaningful. I can't place why it is and I probably never will unless I'm right about him and he bothers to tell me postgame. But the discrepancy in his conclusion there kinda felt like he was trying to find reasons to be suspicious of both players even though his own logic basically required him to be suspicious only of one.
Palmar is mafia because...
Haha I lied, this one is just POE. If I'm wrong about any of my suspects it's Palmar. I guess you could point out that LS's curiosity about Palmar dropped off a cliff after he posted his big reads list, but that's not really good. It's cool though, town has at least 4 more cycles to figure him out so idgaf if I'm wrong here really.
CONCLUSION:
Scumteam is LightningStrike, Alakaslam, ExO_, Superbia, Palmar. Lynch in that order.
If I'm wrong about anyone it's sicklucker. Don't let him drop off the face of the Earth.
Pretty much everyone else is convincingly town. All of our current claimants are legit. No other claimants are likely to be.
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Player List:
1 sicklucker
2 Vivax
3 rsoultin
4 Toadesstern
5 LightningStrike
6 Alakaslam
7 ExO_
8 Bill Murray (RIP) (My b)
9 Onegu
10 Breshke
11 Superbia
12 Fecalfeast
13 Palmar
14 Trfel
15 raynpelikoneet
16 Holyflare (RIP)
17 VisceraEyes (RIP) (My b)
18 Artanis[Xp]
19 Damdred
20 Eden1892
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On March 22 2015 14:45 Toadesstern wrote:
I FIGURED THE SHIT OUT
LOL
Too late, I already solved the game. Go back to bed
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On March 22 2015 14:49 Toadesstern wrote:
We're going to change that order a little once this day is over. At least one in there is town and I have not yet figured out which one
Ok nvm. Don't go back to bed. Whatcha got
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On March 22 2015 13:48 Trfel wrote:
Yeah, it wasn't an ideal play to claim that I had the orb right away. However, a few factors motivated this decision. Namely, a ton of people begging for my head, and a potential tracker. So I tried to out ASAP to keep myself safe.
Why do you think that mafia will shoot one of the masons?
They can't lynch the masons and if for whatever reason there's any doubt about the pairing mafia might make a yolo gambit to try to claim being the other partner (though I doubt this second one highly).
As for people wanting your head, no sweat there. Your play will prove itself in time. I get the pressure from that, it's just a learning experience here, but in the future just keep grinding and fuck the haters man. You would vindicate yourself big time with your play
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On March 22 2015 14:51 Trfel wrote:
Toadesstern, if you solved the game, it would be nice to let the rest of us mere mortals know XD
Eden, why wouldn't you believe any more claims?
Five claims is an awful lot as-is. I could believe 5 pr's given two of them just confirm each other, two of them are the same role and thus invite mislynches of each other and the 5th is directly dissynergizing with the 2 that actually do something. Esp. given that we also know mafia has RB if we take the claims at face value, this seems balanced.
But I feel like even one other is too much power for town
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On March 22 2015 14:51 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2015 14:50 Eden1892 wrote:On March 22 2015 14:49 Toadesstern wrote:
We're going to change that order a little once this day is over. At least one in there is town and I have not yet figured out which one Ok nvm. Don't go back to bed. Whatcha got can't tell before the day is over. Make sure to poke me endlessly when this day reaches deadline so that I don't forget about it. Probably poke Artanis and tell him to poke me as well.
bruh. ._.
ok fine w/e i'll try to remember
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On March 22 2015 14:54 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2015 14:53 Alakaslam wrote:On March 22 2015 14:49 Toadesstern wrote:
We're going to change that order a little once this day is over. At least one in there is town and I have not yet figured out which one LOL give it your all to prove to me that you're the townie in there! I believe in you!
i don't but this!! really if you are town slam you gotta ramp up yo game sson.
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On March 22 2015 14:55 Trfel wrote:
I guess I'm still skeptical of the mason claims...
But I'll need to take another look at that later. There's an extremely good chance I'm wrong on that.
The great thing is that we have an ML to give so even if we're somehow wrong about them, lynching one is enough to sort that shit out. I wouldn't worry about it though. Claiming masons is a low-EV play for mafia.
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On March 22 2015 14:57 Alakaslam wrote:
Maybe when I am here more I can.
I'd rather let it be what it is. From what I can remember and see, Holyflare should have been scum so Idunno- Idunno- probably Rsoultin! Idunno
probably our claimed jailer that oh yeah I have never misread once I've figured out how to read her over a month ago????
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On March 22 2015 15:00 Toadesstern wrote:
There's absolutely no need to discuss that right now. The Mason claim is fine.
So eden you think Palmar is the most likely to be town if you had to drop one of the reads?
By far
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On March 22 2015 13:44 Eden1892 wrote:
OK boys, fasten your seat belts. We finna win this game.
The Mason Claims
So first of all, Onegu. Just based off of the fact that Holyflare ran with the masons thing instead of trying to get Onegu lynched, I'm gonna assume HF thought Onegu was town. I'm not very good at meta reading Onegu and he hasn't done much of anything this game to make me think anything of him. I'm cool with sheeping Holyflare here tho. If we have the luxury of an alignment check on Onegu then we can figure it out that way, but tbh if he's legit the mafia will have to NK him as long as we don't collectively go full retard and make him lynchable.
That said we shouldn't 100% believe Onegu's partner claim right now. Onegu already fakeclaimed a partner and he could very well be doing it again for kicks or for strategy or for whatever. Instead we should wait until ray comes back to the thread and confirms or denies that Onegu is his partner. I am reasonably confident he will and this issue will be resolved, but we maximize the value Onegu's able to get out of his play by simply letting this claim resolve itself, as it's soon to do.
The Jailer Claim
When the fuck are y'all just gonna take my word for it? I'm the fucking Prophet of Rsoultin by now. Seriously.
Yes she's the jailer. Yes saving Onegu over Holyflare was silly, and yes doing it because medic dodge is even sillier. But hey, player who's relatively new to the blues side of the game rolls blue and plays suboptimally. Shocking. Film at 11. rsoultin is the real medic.
The Orb
Trfel, I appreciate your enthusiasm and good job catching mafia. But for future reference, in a situation like this, don't disclose that you got and used the orb right away. I understand the impulse and it's definitely from the right place, you think you have something good to share (and in this case you totally did!) and you wanna get it out right away. But you can maximize the value you get from your information, and extend your play to potentially catch mafia, with some reservation. LS is a relatively new player to mafiaside and he's known to have issues with busing his teammates. Imagine what you could have gotten out of pushing him on his reads list all day and then claiming your orb check with ~6 hrs in the day. There's probably a gold mine in that list, but now we gotta mine it ourselves instead of having him mine it for us.
You obviously still did a great job, don't get me wrong, this is just free advice for the next time you end up with an investigative role. Investigative roles are powerful because they represent information the mafia don't have; they reduce the information gap between town and mafia. You don't want to put all your cards on the table until you're reasonably sure you got everything you needed from it.
I would have had more to say on this, but I got the impression LS confessed (I didn't read the actual page(s) where it happened, but I read the leadup and I see people quoting what sounds like a confession). And honestly, there's no excuse for tracking a claimed mason at all, and marginal excuse for checking one. So this was pretty much in the bag. Good job Trfel.
The Vigs
Toad shot VE, Vivax claimed to shoot Slam but was roleblocked. I'm gonna second Artanis's filter/etc. argument on Vivax being town, because it's pretty convincing. Plus Vivax being roleblocked as it's known he was shooting Slam makes perfect sense given my suspicion of Slam. And knowing Vivax is town, mafia Toad is literally never going to counterclaim vig d1 and try to get him lynched. At this point I have no problem believing we have two vigilantes.
continued...
**REAL JAILER LOL
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On March 22 2015 15:02 Toadesstern wrote:
On a scale from 0 to 10, how yolo are we to maximize swag here when d3 starts?
Sheeping me on all of my reads is pretty much an 11 on yolo swag so
11
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On March 22 2015 15:02 Trfel wrote:
Thanks a bunch, Eden, for that analysis.
Oh, and I don't think I ever thanked Damdred for his analysis earlier, either. I was probably pretending to not be reading the thread. So, thanks to Damdred as well.
I'll be going to sleep really soon, looking forward to seeing what people come up with. I made it to page 32, so yeah, real stuff from me will be a while in coming.
Just, please, keep an eye on the claimed masons.
No problem and yeah, I realized Damdred's 4 suspects from his analysis are the 4 I'm pretty sure on too lol.
Which makes Damdred pretty much confirmed town to me.
Looking forward to your real stuff homie
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Lol don't even tempt me, I lost my spotless streak in [[REDACTED]]
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On March 22 2015 15:05 ExO_ wrote:
Ill be back tomorrow evening. What I'll say is somebody has lied and I dont think they've realized it yet. Im going to let this little charade play out for a bit and see what happens.
All ill say is check some of these meta reads. people are wrong.
Look up "lie" and read that sentence again
And that's fine meta reads can be wrong. What about the non-meta reads implicating 4 people pretty strongly that I made?
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I said it a lot because it's fucking true and somehow you jokers just don't get it.
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On March 22 2015 15:11 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2015 15:09 Eden1892 wrote:
I said it a lot because it's fucking true and somehow you jokers just don't get it. Yea true just like the reasons that make me scum. That's partly the reason I want to flip so bad
uhhhh no. i don't think i'm wrong on you, but i acknowledge that however unlikely, it's possible.
i will not acknowledge the possibility that i'm wrong on rsoultin as of right now
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On March 22 2015 15:12 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2015 15:08 Eden1892 wrote:On March 22 2015 15:05 ExO_ wrote:
Ill be back tomorrow evening. What I'll say is somebody has lied and I dont think they've realized it yet. Im going to let this little charade play out for a bit and see what happens.
All ill say is check some of these meta reads. people are wrong. Look up "lie" and read that sentence again And that's fine meta reads can be wrong. What about the non-meta reads implicating 4 people pretty strongly that I made? should read I dont think they've realized they've I know and can provie they lied
you better have a damn good reason for holding out on explaining. without knowing what the reason is, i'm not going to push it because it could maybe be legit. but i expect answers tomorrow evening
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EPT
