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On February 17 2015 19:57 Tere wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 10:12 Trfel wrote:
One thing I'm thinking right now is that players who weren't really liking the Hier lynch are perhaps more likely to be scum. Knowing that Hier is in fact town, they could have been distancing themselves from the lynch by already knowing its result. A player who initially showed support for the lynch but later retracted this support would probably be the most suspicious.
I know that this category includes me, and that's fine. Obviously it isn't foolproof, but I will keep it in mind when I look through what happened.
I'm also going to be looking for people whose activity/scumhunting waned after we seemed set on a Hier lynch, since those people are more likely to be mafia. OK, reading through post lynch. I went to bed almost straight after, FWIW. With the first point, personally, I feel you are stretching a little there. I don't have an issue with indecision, and don't consider it a scum tell. It's very towny to be indecisive and change your reads and backtrack - I do it all the time. Yes, there's reasons that scum do it too, and distancing is one of them, but I wouldn't charge full pelt down the rabbit hole here. I get the sense that you are continually misinterpreting what I say, both here and other places. I clearly don't mean that anyone doing these things is sure scum, since I myself am probably the first player who comes to mind when you think of these things (and no, I'm not calling myself scum). I still think that these things are likely things for a scum player to do, though obviously quite possible to come from town. You can't expect me to have a 100% way to catch mafia.
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On February 17 2015 22:56 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 22:43 Tere wrote:Yup. There's an extremely good town related reason why someone might want to get a town consensus on scum reads during the night phase, and it's not that hard to figure out. Just saying  Anyway, out to this bloody boring meeting. Back later. that strikes me as rude. If you have a good reason, you should provide it. It feels like instead you want someone to come up with something that you can then say "yeah that was it", when you can't think of a good reason yourself. To be fair, Tere is right, there are plenty of good reasons. There are also several bad ones. While the bad generally outweighs the good, I would still prefer people to play the game as they see fit. If they only have one scumread, so be it. If they have three, so be it. I am more interested in seeing reasoning than lists, as this seems to encourage. I almost feel that constantly badgering everyone for two scumreads gets in the way more than it helps.
On the bright side, it's a really nice way for Tere to look productive without scumhunting.
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This is a response to Tere's response to my case on her. I will not quote the post in question, as it is rather long. The bullet points correspond to the bullet points in my original case, which correspond to the part of Tere's post that I am answering (if you look at Tere's post, it makes sense).
I will preface this by saying that for a mafia player to put themselves in a position where there is no possible town explanation for their actions, they have to really, really, really screw up. There will basically never be a time where you will get a case on mafia (excluding roles/setup/strong vote case) that can't be explained away. The question is, how much suspicion is there, and how reasonable is the explanation.
- My first point, about your experience level. I'm not saying that I expect Tere to be amazing. I'm not saying that Tere needs to know everything. I'm not intimidated by Tere. My point is merely that Tere has a reasonable idea of how the game works, and I don't think she can argue that. Basically, I'm saying that I believe it is fair to hold Tere to similar standards that I hold myself to. The points I make in the rest of the post are things that I would hold against myself, therefore I will also hold them against Tere.
- There is nothing inherently wrong with only saying things that have already been said. However, it is possible to do this instead of scumhunting. It's a small suspicion, which is meaningless on its own, but small suspicions do add up.
- Tere's point provides a valid explanation, but I don't fully accept it. Tere's tone turned against Hier very quickly from when he started posting, and if she really wanted to give Hier a chance (as indicated by her desire to find counterwagons) she would not have changed views so quickly. Hier never said that he wasn't going to make reads, in fact, he already made a read on rsoultin. Say what you want about the quality of the read, but he was at the very least pretending to scumhunt, which casts a lot of doubt on your sentence here: "I was really bothered about Hier's insistence that he wasn't going to do reads and was going to stick to his model."
- Tere says she is excited for not having to do the heavy lifting. Well, if she are town, that isn't true. Town mislynched on Day 1, and if we mislynch two more times, we lose. Everyone needs to go filter diving, even those who are posting a lot. Tere's large number of posts doesn't mean that she is scumhunting, it just means that she has posted a lot.
- On some level, it is usually easier to townread more experienced players. I feel that rsoultin and I are at that level where we are a more easy townread then we were when we started playing (note that at the level of someone like Holyflare, this falls apart entirely because the scumgame is too strong, but at this level it mostly works). And I understand Tere's reasoning for townreading me (Trfel) and rsoultin. All the same, critical thinking should allow you to townread some of the newest players as well. And I didn't see an indication of this in Tere's posts.
- Nothing to say about this.
I'm not even necessarily advocating lynching Tere. My point is that town needs to keep a close eye on her, and she shouldn't be instantly townread like she was earlier in the game. Whether or not Tere should be lynched on Day 2 depends on how the events of the next 48+ hours go. I just feel that it is a major oversight to not be suspicious of Tere at this time.
Tere, given these events, I don't think you can argue that you shouldn't be given some suspicion. Accept it and move on. Of course you can provide a logical town explanation, but if that criteria was used, town would basically never lynch anyone.
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Zlefin, I hope you can understand why people are skeptical of your list. It would be extremely nice if in the future, you could keep a list of why you read people as the alignment that you do for the individual points. This is also helpful for you, because if you decide that someone is scum, you can use these lists to quickly show why they are scum.
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On February 17 2015 23:35 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2015 23:28 Trfel wrote:
Zlefin, I hope you can understand why people are skeptical of your list. It would be extremely nice if in the future, you could keep a list of why you read people as the alignment that you do for the individual points. This is also helpful for you, because if you decide that someone is scum, you can use these lists to quickly show why they are scum. I will try to be a little more detailed. But the points again are really more for my own use than for others, and I only copy/paste because it's easy to do so. You do realize that you are at the top of most people's suspicions, right?
Unfortunately, at the moment you are probably the top Day 2 lynch candidate. Fortunately for you, there is a lot of time to change this.
Explaining where you get your reads is crucial for not being lynched, as without that there is absolutely no way for town to know if you are actually scumhunting or not. In addition, the more explanation you provide, it promotes more discussion, which is good.
You can't be expected to solve the game by yourself, I am under the impression that even the very, very best players would have trouble doing so. Thus, we really appreciate hearing your thoughts, and simply seeing an unexplained tally of who you feel is scummy doesn't really help.
I really need to do some homework. I'll check in later today.
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On February 17 2015 23:48 zlefin wrote:
I do realize that, but there's only so much I can do about that. I already explained my reads as best I could, often there wasn't anything I could point to back it up, it was just my impression. It is what it is and I can't change that. If people don't want to believe that I can't help that.
If I had thoughts I'd share them, and I have. Often I just don't. I can't give you what isn't there. Do you mind maybe taking a look at someone's filter and recording your thoughts as you go through, and then posting all of your thoughts and your conclusion?
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On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote:
Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd?
Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what?
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On February 18 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote:
Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd? Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what? Not the time truffle. I'll let you in later, I promise ^^ I thought we were friends.....
Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out.
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On February 18 2015 00:31 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 00:27 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote:
Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd? Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what? Not the time truffle. I'll let you in later, I promise ^^ I thought we were friends..... Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out. Lol we're absolutely friends. You're a smart guy. I'm sure you'll figure it out ^^ Oh. I see what you are saying now.
I don't like where this is going at all. Rsoultin, you didn't happen to be in the Hammertime obs chat, did you?
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On February 18 2015 00:35 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 00:33 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:31 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:27 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote:
Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd? Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what? Not the time truffle. I'll let you in later, I promise ^^ I thought we were friends..... Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out. Lol we're absolutely friends. You're a smart guy. I'm sure you'll figure it out ^^ Oh. I see what you are saying now. I don't like where this is going at all. Rsoultin, you didn't happen to be in the Hammertime obs chat, did you? Ummm, I did but I stopped following it after about the first day. Do you mind reading the obs QT again? There's a certain part of it that I believe is somewhat applicable here. My point is, you're walking on really dangerous ground, and tread carefully. I'm worried that I'm not going to be here tomorrow, so I'm trying to say all that I can now.....
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On February 18 2015 00:37 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 00:35 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:33 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:31 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:27 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:24 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 00:23 Trfel wrote:On February 18 2015 00:20 rsoultin wrote:
Firstly, if you're hinting at what I believe you're hinting at, Tere, use your best judgment and your coach. You don't need everyone else's reads to do it. Put on those big girl pants xP Wait, I think I'm missing something here. Can you let me join the in-crowd? Do you think that Tere is suggesting that everyone is scumreading zlefin? Or what? Not the time truffle. I'll let you in later, I promise ^^ I thought we were friends..... Time to take a break from zlefin's filter and attempt to figure this out. Lol we're absolutely friends. You're a smart guy. I'm sure you'll figure it out ^^ Oh. I see what you are saying now. I don't like where this is going at all. Rsoultin, you didn't happen to be in the Hammertime obs chat, did you? Ummm, I did but I stopped following it after about the first day. Do you mind reading the obs QT again? There's a certain part of it that I believe is somewhat applicable here. My point is, you're walking on really dangerous ground, and tread carefully. I'm worried that I'm not going to be here tomorrow, so I'm trying to say all that I can now..... Eh, on second thought, never mind. I'm not thinking clearly.
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Oh rsoultin, why do you do this to me......... (expresses general frustrations)
I blame you for my own blunders.
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So many things I want to say right now, but it's just not right. Now, if this were a PM game....
See what I was getting at earlier? It's really, really hard for me to trust others XD
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On February 18 2015 00:50 rsoultin wrote:
Well, let's ignore it for the time being.
I want to play a game with zlefin ;o;
I think the problem with his point system/reads may just be that he's having trouble articulating things in his first game. Especially when things are gut/tone reads it can be hard to put it into words. I completely sympathize with him if that's the case. I have a big post on zlefin coming up in the near future. (anyone who knows me well should know that this probably means in like 5 hours)
I sympathize with him a ton, too. While his play definitely seems scummy at first, it could also just be a town player trying to figure out how to play the game (not to be insulting, I'm still trying to figure out how to play the game, too).
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Why would I do homework when I can play mafia? Oh, I have the worst work ethic ever...
Anyway, my updated and long overdue read on zlefin.
On February 15 2015 22:58 zlefin wrote:
I can't explain my reads well, they're only quite mild reads at this point.
For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum.
For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. I maintain that this post seems townie to me. What I see here is pure honesty. Obviously, having unexplained reads is bad, so zlefin wouldn't want to admit this. A mafia!zlefin might have even preferred to make up reasons than to admit that he has no really explainable reasons. Of course, when unexplained reads are used again and again, that could be a problem.
On February 16 2015 02:56 zlefin wrote:
yeah, I've seen Princess Bride.
I'm inclined to take the prior page of discussion as minor evidence of Hier and Rsoultin being town.
For Hier, it seems like too complicated a plan for a scum to want to put forth.
for rsoultin he was putting forth good reasons for town to dislike the plan with good analysis.
Or it could be a plot by the two of them (both being scum) to make themselves both look like town through such an exchange. So I want to make a note of possible link between the two. I think this very unlikely though. This was one of the first things that people commented on for zlefin being scum. I disagree that this is scummy. He is providing two townreads with some reasoning. As for the last three sentences of the post, he's not really casting doubt on his reads, he is just being a cautious and paranoid townie. Again, this feels more like town than scum.
On February 16 2015 21:14 zlefin wrote:
Ok, I've reviewed the thread to date, and here's the score sheet I keep with my running tally estimates on town/scumminess, positive numbers are town, negative numbers are scum; the denominator represents the number of total read points for that person. i.e. each time I get a feel, I add or subtract one from the ongoing tally.
Trfel 1/1
Shining
rsoultin 1/1
elyas
jarjar -2/2
mimeux
hier 0/2
silver
with mimeux out, and his replacement not yet in, I don't expect to get enough information on the replacement to have a read on them by voting time.
I remain concerned about silver having no posts on the first real life day, and overall activity level.
Now I gotta go back, find jarjars question to answer it, and then maybe review the people I don't have any read on to see if I can find something.
my current lynch candidates are jarjar, hier, silver, trfel.
The reason for trfel is that I feel trfel is a high information lynch. If he's scum, he's a skilled scum; and there's a lot of discussion between trfel and others, if I could go back through those discussions with the lynch knowledge of his alignment, I think that would provide a lot of other leads one way or the other. I think it would provide more information than anyone else's lynch. This is the first post where zlefin shows his method of keeping a tally and using it to judge people's alignments. At this point, we can figure out (presumably) why he gave everyone the number he gave them.
I (Trfel) recieved 1/1 for encouraging discussion.
Rsoultin received 1/1 for analysis on Hier's bridges plan.
Jarjarbinks received -2/2 for a bad impression and a statement zlefin thought was scummy.
Hier received 0/2 for proposing his Bridges plan and making a post with lots of fancy words but little actual substance.
Zlefin's list corresponds precisely with his filter to this point. Thus, I feel that it is safe to assume that the future updates to his list are also based on reads he actually made, and he isn't changing the numbers randomly. There really is no good reason to doubt this.
Zlefin also advocates lynching me (Trfel) because it would give him a lot of information. This is a silly idea, and would never actually happen. That aside, it doesn't strike me as a scummy thing to say. Since I have zero chance of being lynched for this reason, it seems strange that mafia!zlefin would suggest this as a way to get town!Trfel lynched. Given how ridiculous that is, I can accept the alternate explanation that he really felt that knowing my alignment would help him make a lot of reads. For those of you who still doubt this, remember that attacking someone with a large thread presence generally isn't something that mafia wants to do. Thus, there is very little, if any, reason for this to be mafia motivated.
Now, for zlefin's vote on Hier. I see where zlefin is asking town what he should do with his vote, but if you read the reasoning, it seems like he is actually thinking about the possibilities. While it is true that he is asking town what his end result should be, he has provided thoughts and set the framework. He has also made it clear that he isn't just going to do what everyone else tells him to do, but he wants other people's thoughts to take into consideration. The post I refer to is here. As for disliking changing votes, while sometimes considered poor play, this isn't scummy. Correctly using one's vote is rather difficult, and in my current play, I basically only vote late in the day for the person I want lynched, and then maybe change it at the last minute if town is switching (probably not). It's suboptimal, but not an indication of being scum.
What I see here is more of a new, inexperienced townie who is extremely cautious, to the point where it hurts his play. While looking at his actions and reads alone makes him look extremely scummy, I get the impression from his tone and his reasoning that it isn't mafia-motivated.
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I just realized that my final stance on zlefin might not be completely clear.
I'm not saying that he is town. I'm saying that I don't yet see much reason to call him scum.
I'm sure that some people remember what I just said to Tere a few pages ago, that there is almost always a town explanation for someone's behavior, but that doesn't make them town. And what I have done is provided a town explanation for zlefin's behavior. My point is, weigh the validity of the initial points against the validity of the explanation. And in this case, I find the explanation to be reasonable enough that I don't want to lynch zlefin at this time.
That said, it is still very important to watch zlefin and follow his reads. If he shows actual scumhunting and critical thinking, he is probably fine. If he fails to do this, maybe he should be considered for the lynch.
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On February 18 2015 01:18 rsoultin wrote:
Actually, lol, our case-maker just found your reasons in your filter, Zlefin, but if you do want to play the game anyway, just let me know ^^
Nah, Truffle, it was only his later play that was bugging me, anyway. His point system reminds me of my brother's lol.
Speaking of paranoia...JJB isn't getting scumread this game. Seems like a dumb reason to find him scummy, but usually everyone is like JJB, scummiest of scum! Am I nuts? You townread him. Given my experience in previous games with him, I townread him too (especially given your townread). For much of the game, we have had two of the larger thread presences. We sort of brushed aside suspicions of him, so that would be our fault.
I certainly expect to see his play pick up on Day 2 (it normally does, right?). But for now, I don't think I see anything to indicate that he is any more scummy than normal.
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On February 18 2015 01:30 Tere wrote:
I will explain all in Day 2 should I survive, if you wish.
You are just going to have to go with me here until then. I'm trying a thing. I saw it work quite well for someone in a recent game. I hope you understand if I refuse to play along. I will make reads, and I will make them clear, but I don't see a need to effectively quantify them and say what my two strongest scumreads are.
I play lynch by lynch, without taking into account associative reads. Stating my two strongest scumreads at this time does absolutely nothing to focus for the next lynch, for which we will have much more time to prepare and (hopefully) a bunch of new information to use.
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On February 18 2015 02:07 Tere wrote:
rsoul or Silver or Jarjar (or whoever really), can you link me to any games Silverarte has played in? I don't see anything in the database for her?
Ta muchly. The database is not updated frequently, unfortunately. It's more effective to view someone's profile to find their previous games.
It appears that her only previous game was Newbie Mini Mafia LX. She was the town cop.
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On February 18 2015 02:05 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2015 01:59 rsoultin wrote:On February 18 2015 01:55 zlefin wrote:On February 18 2015 01:18 rsoultin wrote:
Actually, lol, our case-maker just found your reasons in your filter, Zlefin, but if you do want to play the game anyway, just let me know ^^
Nah, Truffle, it was only his later play that was bugging me, anyway. His point system reminds me of my brother's lol.
Speaking of paranoia...JJB isn't getting scumread this game. Seems like a dumb reason to find him scummy, but usually everyone is like JJB, scummiest of scum! Am I nuts? pass on the game, I don't think it will help me clear up my thoughts at all. I want to use my time to review the two people I still have no reads either way on (shining and elyas) to see if I can figure something out on them. As to JJB, I've had him at mild scumread if that makes you feel any better. Which, by your description of him, would be his usual state. It'll take some time for me to figure out how to compensate for how naturally scummy certain people sound, since I don't have a background on them. Believe it or not, that actually does make me feel better ^^ Eh, I don't know how to explain JJB other than he's a bit of a happy clown, but the biggest points in his favor at EoD were how he kept the discussion open. I know he was pushing you, but from a mafia perspective, if you know the leading wagon is town you either just sit there and let others push it so you don't look bad when he flips town, or you say "this is a bad lynch" but do nothing to stop it. JJB doesn't really fall in either category. Do others concur with rsoultin's description of JJB? I ask because I don't want to base any changes entirely off this in the unlikely event the two of them are mafia. If others concur with the description, I'm going to give a positive point to JJB, based on rsoultins comments in the last page, which also help reassess JJBs early game (in particular his joke which I didn't like, more info on its normalcy for him ameliorates it). I wouldn't describe jarjarbinks as a happy clown, but rsoultin would (hopefully) know better than I would.
For the purposes of a mafia game, I see jarjarbinks as an extremely analytical player, perhaps to the point where it is detrimental to his play. There are no substitutes for old-style scumhunting. Jarjarbinks tends to focus on purely objective things like vote counts, roles, setup, and in this game, the Bridges method. As a result, jarjarbinks doesn't post an abundance of traditional reads, which does lead to him often being scumread.
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EPT
