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On December 14 2014 10:38 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:34 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:17 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless? See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons? His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote. If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote. You're awesome. But, thinking of it that way, scum probably consolidated on HFs wagon, if HF is town, right? Lol is this a trap of some sort? What prevents scum from being on either wagon? Though if we're looking for odd votes that changed suddenly, Vivax was pushing KSC in Day 1 and Day 2...then suddenly shifts to HF with nothing to say for himself than "GBs case convinced me". HF turns out to be town, that would be the first spot I'd look. KSC seems like a good alt lynch to divide up town votes, but not so good when everyone jumps on board, no? By the same reasoning, Trfel's position was odd. He makes a good case against KSC, argues against GB's case enough to put KSC as the better lynch, then last minute also switches to HF on a "gut feeling". Though he was also the one asking Vivax why Vivax switched. Which is weird since neither seemed to have great reasons to do so. Why would it be a trap? Mafia has no motivation to buss at this point. If HF is town, mafia is most likely on his wagon. I can't see the problem with this kind of thought...
I find it unlikely with most of the votes split that every single mafia member was on HF or voting somewhere else. Especially toward the end. Particularly because KSC didn't really try to save himself. More likely he was either trying to protect HF or at least some mafia were taking the opportunity to buss him. Think about it. If the guy is the branch manager and there are already 3 disgruntled workers dead, his usefulness to mafia is questionable at best. He's not a terrible sacrifice (and being sick, he may have preferred to remove himself from the game anyway).
Speculation that all mafia were on HF at the time seems inherently flawed when the odds don't point to anything that clean.
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On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot.  1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period.
Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow.
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On December 14 2014 10:52 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:50 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period. Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow. No specific logic. Bad vigi shot. That's all. Let's move on to the next topic.
Not acceptable. If you don't have a reason to say that, why are you saying it? I am trying to play ball with you here, GB...I'm not sold that you're not town or that HF isn't mafia, so can you at least work with me a little here?
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On December 14 2014 11:00 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:54 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:52 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:50 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period. Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow. No specific logic. Bad vigi shot. That's all. Let's move on to the next topic. Not acceptable. If you don't have a reason to say that, why are you saying it? I am trying to play ball with you here, GB...I'm not sold that you're not town or that HF isn't mafia, so can you at least work with me a little here? I can, but this is not a thing to be discussed at night. I can talk about any other topic you want
...Unless you're trying to tell me that you're no longer certain of HF's alignment, it seems like you just don't want people to see him flip. And if you're no longer certain of HF's alignment, you should be able to "discuss" that just fine. I'm not an idiot to not understand what you're hinting at here, but the dodging is unnecessary when all you had to say was "I'm having doubts."
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It points to scum or framing as scum. WIFOM imo. An opinion I've already expressed.
Well, I stand by my comment that it looks an awful lot like you're simply not interested in seeing him flip, glow. Which is not something that I understand coming from someone who is supposed to be town -shrugs-
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Lol, FF...you're praising him for stating the obvious. There literally are no other options. He just said:
Either scum voted for town
Or scum bussed scum when the other option was town
Or scum bussed scum when the other option was scum
That post is a completely useless insight lol.
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On December 14 2014 12:16 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 11:48 rsoultin wrote:
Lol, FF...you're praising him for stating the obvious. There literally are no other options. He just said:
Either scum voted for town
Or scum bussed scum when the other option was town
Or scum bussed scum when the other option was scum
That post is a completely useless insight lol. All you're doing is bashing on most everything I post. You want to discuss things that aren't to be discussed but does not propose another topic. That is not so obvious. You're making my post looks less informative than it really is. Kelsier keeping his vote on fecal feast is indicative of ff being town, but you seem not to care. You were also discrediting my case on HF but you now want him to flip/ thinks he might be scum. Really, you're looking really bad to my eyes.
Heh, of course I am. You're rubbing me all sorts of wrong and I've been in your craw all day because of it. For the record, I'm still leaning town over scum on HF, and entertaining the possibility that someone could be scum even if I believe they're not does not make me scum, GB. What I find interesting is your seeming reluctance to see one of (ha! could practically say only right now) your scumreads flip. If you really thought he was scum, does it matter how he dies? In fact, shouldn't you want that information out there before heading into tomorrow's lynch assuming that we should scumhunt from HFs train?
I've said most of the day that FF had a shit case against him. I admitted that my case on Trfel was probably equally shit. Null, null leaning town, I don't see that it really changes much. FF still has a lot to prove, which I hope he will.
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On December 14 2014 12:16 Vivax wrote:
Remember my Xatalos case on D1? Well, Kelsier apparently decided to interpret his ambiguous trap play in a way that would stop me from pursuing Xatalos and put what he wrote into favourable light, do with it what you will but for that he's back into my scummy pile.
Lol...I remember your Xatalos case and only thinking one point was even worth considering. And today it's all about analyzing NKs as proof against FF, completely ignoring suspicions of Trfel before he came out with his case, scumreading people for not liking your NK analysis and jumping ship off of KSC which is a vote you were in on when it wasn't gaining much traction for no other reason than you read someone else's case and it convinced you. Not even an explanation as to which part convinced you or why despite being asked multiple times.
You are firmly in my scum circle right now, buddy. Unless you care to clear all this up for me.
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On December 14 2014 12:33 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 12:27 Trfel wrote:
Sorry, I'm probably being really thick here, but why does KelsierSC saying that Holyflare is town provide any evidence that Holyflare is town? Couldn't he just be trying to make the town opinion favor his mafia buddy? Mafia don't like to contribute their own analysis and so the easiest way to blend in is by calling people town for the shittest reasons. If some town read doesn't make sense at all, like his town read on me, it's almost entirely because he knows I'm town and can just say it. Hence why I called him out on it because it's such a mafia thing to do. This probably also applies to his read on batsnacks because that was a terrible read at the time and didn't change based on evidence that should have changed the read.
Circumstantial. It may be a point in a case (and since we know KSC was mafia that gives it a little more credit) but it by no means makes you 100% anything.
Gotta give you my "love", too, HF  You're interpreting what he said in a way that makes you look good. It could also be interpreted in ways to make you look bad. This is not good evidence.
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I'm not trusting your "experience" when it's being used in your own defense. Your experience should tell you why that would be a stupid thing for me to do. I still have a town read on you here, HF, but I'm not going to let weak statements fly as evidence that you're 100% town. Sorry.
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Lol, dude, seriously? You're going to take that as a batsnacks town read over all the things he's actually said and contributed to this game? Wow.
Viva and GB went eerily silent. Guess they don't care to/or can't find a counter. Or they're taking a really long time to bother to frame a response.
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On December 14 2014 12:51 Holyflare wrote:
It's actually really frustrating this game to post actual logical content and then people completely overlook it to talk about minor things. Happened all last day with gb's case. Not one of you read my filter at all to fact check him and now you find out his case was actually based on lies that I've told you were lies all along and then you still pick on little crap like this kelsier thing over the better content.
Beginning to annoy me now. I don't consider two people arguing against one another, both claiming each other is scum and/or defending themselves better content. If I can't make a read on you or someone else by looking at what you've done or said independently and have to choose one of you to parrot...I might as well call you both null and call it a day. Or both scum for damn well wasting my time.
Find another sheep and stop pissing me off.
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On December 14 2014 12:56 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 12:31 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 12:16 Vivax wrote:
Remember my Xatalos case on D1? Well, Kelsier apparently decided to interpret his ambiguous trap play in a way that would stop me from pursuing Xatalos and put what he wrote into favourable light, do with it what you will but for that he's back into my scummy pile. Lol...I remember your Xatalos case and only thinking one point was even worth considering. And today it's all about analyzing NKs as proof against FF, completely ignoring suspicions of Trfel before he came out with his case, scumreading people for not liking your NK analysis and jumping ship off of KSC which is a vote you were in on when it wasn't gaining much traction for no other reason than you read someone else's case and it convinced you. Not even an explanation as to which part convinced you or why despite being asked multiple times. You are firmly in my scum circle right now, buddy. Unless you care to clear all this up for me. So when Trfel was bats tom scumspect and bats literally begged me to form a wagon on him, but I refused cause in my mind there was legitimately bigger fish to fry, why didn't I do it when he appeared as such an easy lynch? Easy answer: I'm town. Or my interaction where I argue for ages with Kelsier, is that scum/scum in your opinion? Until you clear up these questions I'm not scum. Worst case I'm a townie who's wrong, so tell me where I'm wrong (and weren't you the guy who agreed with me on my Xata case after some talk? Or was it tube)
Agreed on the one point and debunked all your others ^^ That was when you called me a gnat as I recall.
Why did you switch? Which part of GBs case convinced you?
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Personally I think that most of the wagons today would have been mislynches. I don't like defaulting to my near null reads just because people are pushing mostly my town reads and ignoring the ones who I really think should bite it. Of course I can be wrong, but until Trfel's case against KSC I wasn't seeing any strong cases, either.
I can understand the frustration of trying to get your point across and no one listening, for sure ><.
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On December 14 2014 14:26 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 08:10 sicklucker wrote:On December 14 2014 08:08 ritoky wrote:
I would like everyone to post who they think I should shoot tonight and why. Like honestly be careful I think you might hit a big power role like santa. I think none of ff, tube, hf are power roles or would have claimed already. Those are good targets. I am a good target to keep alive for mafia. I die, it gives MASSIVE credence to my case.
Lol this thought process is still one that amuses me greatly. Tube, dude...night kills are not the best judge of who is right and who is wrong. The most valuable information they give is the alignment of the players killed, so you can then read what they've said and done through the context of a flipped alignment.
Have you stopped to consider that if you do die tonight we won't even know (most like) who actually killed you unless they flat-out claim that they did? xP
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Okay, Tube. Gonna let you in on a little secret here.
Most often mafia kills people they think town will never lynch, so that they can get town arguing/paranoid/indecisive about the options that remain. Look for active players who aren't being scumread. Mafia also tends to kill people that they think have roles (right or not).
When you look at the kill list tomorrow, that is probably what you'll see.
That is why questioning Vivax's night kill analysis addition to FFs case happened so quickly.
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HF...
A mislynch opportunity didn't actually "arise". You and Tube were the options first. Tube started coming off as misguided town (and wasn't a very strong lynch anyway), several of us were uncomfortable voting either of you, and it turned into a who do the people not voting for HF consolidate on.
You should probably actually read what happened before you start throwing accusations around. Not saying Trfel hasn't done some weird things or couldn't have bussed, but yeah. You were always on the chopping block.
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Heh, yeah. No I completely get it @ trfel. You made huge cases against both bats and damdred and both were very town that game. (I also started the lynch on bats later lol so please don't take this as criticism).
Seeing something fly so easily would make me paranoid, too. What you probably didn't notice was a lot of us were actually looking for a better case than the ones people were making prior to your entrance. You had such overwhelming support in part because we all were already willing to switch votes to consolidate and get off the bad trains being brought forward -_-
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Hey SL. It's late and I'm a little hyper/sleep-deprived.
Just finished my final which decided to disappear on me and I had to mostly rewrite @.@
Can we call a truce one of these games? lol I actually do like you despite picking on you and your posts so much xP (the vulgarity is just cause I got used to all the marines in my shop...it's just for color, not cause I want to bite -snaps teeth-)
Yeah, not sold 100% on trfel, but that case certainly did help, and he's defending himself well from HF lol not a small feat. tempted to call HF growly from here out, but that would probably get confused with GB
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Tube was trying to push you, SL. That's probably why.
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EPT
