Normal Mini Mafia LVI - Page 5

On June 28 2014 08:59 YouKnowZhou wrote:
Preamble - Throwning down

Look guys, there are a lot of things that could have gone down with night actions, and maybe it's possible Sloosh is the GF or he was a scum player who was framed, or some other weird set of circumstances (snickers insane and LM and I were framed, etc). But when it comes down to it, we should not be lynching into green checks today. We shouldn't have lynched into green checks tomorrow. Assuming there's no cc for snickers (and at this point, I'd be pretty surprised if there was, and suspicious of any cc of snickers), we should not lynch into his green checks today, and we shouldn't lync snicks. I've decided we should lynch Release over Koshi, for reasons I'll explain later in this post.

It looks like during the night people (including people who thought I was scum defending scum LM...) have decided I am scum and want to lynch me. Here's what I gotta say to anyone who seriously wants to lynch me:

You're welcome to try. You will fail. I'm better than you; I'm more convincing, I'm more experienced, I'm one of the best players on TL Mafia, and this is LYLO. I won't lie down and say "well, treat me as conftown after I flip" because if I flip, it's game over. The fact of the matter is, I'm an extremely convincing player, and I'm only MORE convincing when I can use real facts to defend myself and accuse my enemies.

---

Chapter 1 - All Systems Green


First off, here are reasons not to lynch me or sloosh tomorrow (assuming snicks gets shot, which he will). Imagine for a moment, you're not in this game, but you're observing it. It's D4, and the cop reveals 3 green checks. For some reason, the entire game decides to lynch one of his green checks, and one of his other green checks hard defends the other one to the point that people start thinking the 2nd guy is scum too. The first guy flips scum, and D5 the cop is dead and people want to lynch the 2nd greencheck now.

If you saw town systematically lynching through the greenchecks of the flipped cop, your first thought would be "wat". Your second thought would be "man, I wonder what these guys are thinking. There's no way I could possibly be so awful when I play this game". The fact of the matter is, if you lynch me, you will be that town who decided the best pool of people to lynch into on D4 and D5 LYLO was the pool of people the cop got green on. You will never live it down.

In retrospect, lynching VE was a mistake for a number of reasons, but the biggest of them was that despite being pigheaded, strident, and generally disagreeable and ragey, VE is in fact highly intelligent. Sure, he didn't like LM, but I am sure if he were alive his advice wouldn't be "let's systematically lynch the greenchecks" because honestly that plan is awful.

"Now wait, Blazinghand", you say, "I'm not saying we should lynch all the greenchecks. I'm just saying that yesterday we needed to lynch LM because he was scummy, and you were scummy for defendhing him, your scumbuddy. Now, he flipped town, so you're scummy for defending someone who was lynched and flipped town. You HAPPEN to have a greencheck on you, but that won't stop us from lynching you." Ok, look, you can have whatever reason you want for systematically lynching through the greenchecks. Maybe you think Snickers is insane, which is possible. But boy, after the first one flips green, you should probably stop and think "maybe, just maybe, we're totally wrong about this thing. Maybe it's actually a bad idea to do this."

I'll admit, on some level I want to lynch slOosh. He could be scum. But the fact of the matter is, there's a green check on him. If it comes down to it, we can deal with him in 3-player LYLO after lynching his buddy. If release flips GF, then we can be assured that both Sloosh and I are town, since this game is exceedingly unlikely to have both GF *and* Framer (since cop would be effectively useless, and anti-role, then). If release flips Framer, then we can cast doubt on the green checks for reasons related to him potentially framing me or Sloosh as scum. If Release flips Goon, then the last scum is either GF or Framer and we also probably can't trust the checks.

Do you see what I'm getting at here? Unless you believe in a BH/Sloosh scumteam, there's at least one scum amongst Koshi/Release, and if we lynch that scum first (similar odds there), then we can go into LYLO potentially with tons of info. Our odds aren't worse, and they're potentially much, much better. I'd like to point out the non-trivial chance that Me and Sloosh are both town and the green checks (which so far have been 100% accurate) are accurate on us.

Don't lynch into the green checks tomorrow. At the endgame, you know what's gonna happen, right? VE will be in here and say "wow, BH is such an idiot for lynching me, because without me there was nobody to tell town not to be idiotic. somehow you jubjubs lynched only into the cop's green checks? Are you kidding me? And BH, you talk about how "pro" you are at mafia but you and one of your top townreads got lynched while you had green checks on you. I can't believe this."

And he'll be right, too. As the only experienced, intelligent player here, it's my job to lead the town. I failed yesterday, but I won't fail today.

---

Intermezzo - my townreads

Snickers: we all know snickers is town unless cced so we're not lynching him, ever.
Sloosh: although the VCA wiggles its eyebrows suggestively, there's a greencheck on this guy. Also, despite whatever uselessness he does, I feel like his awfulness is distinct enough he's likely to be town. Also, that little VCA chart thing impressed me. Sloosh is in zero danger of being lynched. If he's scum, he doesn't need to post a freakin VCA chart, all he has to do is yell that I'm scum (as he had been doing for days...) and hang out and post a tiny bit. Mostly though it's the green check.
Chezinu: as a matter of principle I don't try to make reads on chez and just treat him as town. If I'm the cop, I check him. The fact that snickers never checked chezinu but instead checked like sloosh, is frankly awful. If our blues misplay and fail to shoot or check chezinu all game, I'm willing to accept a loss any time he rolls scum. I don't even want to policy this guy ever because honestly there are bigger fish. I will not lynch chezinu unless someone claims a scum check on him, or it's like 2-1 lylo and there's a conftown, and it's me vs chez or something like that where I know he's scum.

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Chapter Two - Vote Count Anal

Sloosh, like the reliable greencheck he is, provided a color-coded VCA chart for us. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=22454200

The Day 1 lynch is pretty straightforward. 7 votes on 27nb, 3 on mderg, 1 on me. Snickers we can consider town because of his cop claim, so we have to ask ourselves: Did all scum unnecessarily vote together on 27nb? Sure, I was pushing that wagon all day and maybe mderg hopped one arly ish, but if the third scum is Chez, Koshi, or Sloosh, they really did NOT have to be on 27nb to save snickers. no, in my opinion the 7-4-1 result indicates a wagon that did not need all 3 scum to be on it. Even in the event of all 3 scum being on 27nb, I expect at least one scum to not commit to lynching a VT over his buddy when it's so lopsided and jump off. Since everyone on mderg is town, we can reasonably expect Release to be scum from D1 VCA.

Looking at the D2 wagon, I see two possibilties. Since it would have been trivial for Koshi, Release, or Chez to jump on to me (maybe not in terms of explanation, but that 1 vote would have swung it even without LM voting), I immediatley wonder if sloosh and snickers were somehow scum and voted together with mderg to try to save him. That being said, Snickers is town and there's a greencheck against sloosh. If I were scum going into D2 I'd want to bus mderg, as he was the counterwagon to a D1 wagon on a VT, and was pretty close in the running. None of the people who voted mderg D1 are dead during D2, except of course 27nb, so you can expect him to at least be a candidate D2. So who was added to the mderg wagon, who voted mderg D2 and not D1, who might have been scum looking for a chance to bus? Well, I see Release and Koshi on that wagon, which again lines up with what I said in the preamble. These guys saw an opportunity to bus a goon and went for it. This is exceptionally true for Release. Release voted me D1, when I wasn't a legit wagon, instead of mderg, who was. On D2, you see Release voting mderg, instead of me, the guy he wanted to lynch D1. Remember, during D1 27nb had not yet flipped town, so during D2 Release should have been more suspicious of me. Yet he moves his vote to mderg, who is probably on the way out as the counterwagon to 27nb D1. In my opinion, this discrepancy in voting indicates that Release's motivations are not thought through from a perspective of "I want to lynch YKZ" but "I want to lynch mderg, but only when it's clear he's going to be lynched".

The only part that doesn't fit for me is why Release wouldn't swap over to me, given that he voted me D2. I really think he'd take the opportunity to save his teammate and look consistent with his D1 play. Still, There were SOME shenannies around the deadline, but he must have known mderg would vote me. The evidence of the green check by snickers on sloosh is bigger imo than the evidence of "scum on the mderg wagon could have swapped". Perhaps it would look too bad to swap from a scum wagon to a town wagon late in the day, and they figured mderg was going down eventually anyways.

D3 and D4 were both pretty onesided. To all of you who voted for LM D4, it's worth noting that Artanis and VE, whose votes couldn't swing the wagon anyways during D3, ended up voting Koshi over LM, yet somehow we ended up lynching LM who had a greencheck on him ._.

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Coda - From Beyond the Grave

Due to VCA from D1, I believe Release to be a better target for today's lynch than Koshi. However, I would like to bring in some support from Lazermonkey, who I think we can all agree is town (I assume; a green check wouldn't convince you "players" (I use the term generously) that he was town, perhaps a townflip from the mod may not).

Here, briefly, is LM's case on Release, supplemented with my own words I've encorporated phrases from the following posts, to make one hybrid case.

I find Snickers fake-claiming unlikely. Partly because of what YKZ pointed out earlier and partly why would you claim to have a town read on me at this state of the game as scum?

Chez and Snickers are likely town (and also are the guys that will get shot, thus wasting lynches on them is bad). SlOosh I dislike but his green check means that he is likely town. This leaves Release and Koshi.



First part seems like you are justifying the fact that you aren't giving out reads in a very bad way. That is at least how I interpret it.

So basically, YKZ being wrong=>YKZ is scum. Do you really believe this logic yourself. Also, have you even considered what he has done since then?`He was the fucking dude that got mderg lynched.

Are you not reading or refusing to understand? I never said that asking questions and such was bad. It seems like you're really stretching to give a scumread and not be helpful and at the same time call other people scum. Look at it this way: If you were town, you' dbe willing to play the game. Yet here you are, stonewalling my precious time left alive.

---

Now that Chezinu has unclaimed... Chezinu fake-claimed so I don't have a red check on myself. Therefore, you should unvote me. The list for people that we are allowed to chose from (to kill) is

-Release
-Koshi

These guys are most likely the scum.


Yhea, getting people lycnhed is totally not something town would want to do.. Owait. This push on YKZ is awful. That's just how the guy plays, he wants to lynch his targets. We all do, youc an't call him scum for that. bad reasoning. You're scum.

Looks like I won't live.


I'm honestly pretty sad right now. I know that there are 2 scum on my wagon but it also means that there are 3 dumb townies on my wagon as well.

As for my wills:

-Anyone thinking that YKZ could be scum after this is so so so so so wrong. And stupid.

-Snickers, just do whatever YKZ tells you to. Your logic sucks but thats something we can take in postgame.

-Koshi/Release is the next lynch. Maybe SlOosh if he really fucks over.

-Chezinu and Snickers town.

Why Release? The fact that Release simply did nothing is also telling I'd say. No matter how much scum you think I am, there is still a point in keeping up the work. It seemed like SlOosh even wanted to apear contributing by pushing me when it was obvious I was getting lynched. I said numerous times that I was cool with dying. I was giving out reads and asked them to ask question but Release just didn't give a fuck at all. He didn't ask questions, let me speak, etc. He just wanted me to flip so he could get to lylo.

@YKZ: I mean, I would like to believe that about Koshi. But he could just be bad town. Like I said, I don't really know Koshi's meta but I really think you should check him. Does he generally play like this, ie super defending and passive? Or is he actually good? Also, while Koshi is lurking SlOosh and Release seems to be trying to contribute but in reality just tunnel. I still think Release is just as scummy as Koshi.

He's the best lynch for tomorrow

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 28 2014 10:48 Chezinu wrote:






Ya Know,

Let's have some Fun Art! *cries* This is for you man!!!

##Unvote
##Vote Release

On June 28 2014 16:15 YouKnowZhou wrote:





But, to be more specific, because of Release' day 1 vote, and the swap from voting me D1 to voting mderg D2 in a mderg-vs-me race, when I should have looked worse D2 than I did D1. Remember what I did D2? I took a 48 hour dinner after lynching a townie. Not sure how this convinced Release, who was happy throwing away his vote on a non-wagon on me D1, to vote to lynch mderg over me. Obviously he pretended to be convinced by the case, but this reversal doesn't make sense.

Although Koshi has been uniformly terrible and his actions during the VE/LM debacle are pretty awful, and he's been afk, it doesn't make sense to me that all 3 scum woudl vote 27nb D1, which means Release is more likely to be scum. I also ned to look over release' long back-and-forths with me throughout the VE lynch day, I wonder if they make sense from a town perspective.

In any case, I'm not lynching into the green checks, and I'm not lynching Chez. The VCA for D1 and D2 and the words of LM that we know were town-motivated make me want to lynch Release. But hey, I've done nothing here but repeat the case I quoted. I recommend you check it out.

Remember, Sloosh, if you think Chez is town, you need to convince him to vote me with you if you want to lynch scum-me. It's 3 town, 2 scum today. This means that all 3 town NEED to vote together to get a lynch. This also means that if you hear someone say something, there's like a 50% chance it's coming from scum. Tell me what I can say to clarify or help you. Also, please tell me the chief reasons you think I'm scum. I think you're town, I want to do everything I can to convince you that I too am town, because I *need* you. Unless all 3 of us vote together, we lose.

On June 28 2014 18:21 YouKnowZhou wrote:
You don't address the most telling part of the Vount Count Analysis. If you think Release is town, then D1 all scum voted together for no reason (since the vote was 7-4). I do not find this likely. I think if 7-4 was entirely due to scum inteference (ie the townies voted 4-4) scum would not have shot GK, one of mderg's strongest defenders, N1. I think Release is scum for that reason. Please address this issue.

Also, I'm not done with you. Unless we vote together, it's over. This is true. You obviously understand this since you're talking to chez. But the fact of the matter is, you're lynching into green checks, again. This is patently awful play. When this game is over, some observer, or even the host, is going to ask what we were doing lynching the green checks.

Also, I know I was basically absent from the end of N1 to about halfway through D2, but this is because my nephew had an epileptic seizure. The kid has epilipsy, but hasn't had an episode for a couple years. the doctors were ramping down his dosage and he seized overnight, and my brother was in Chico. my dad called the doctor while I stayed with him and we took him to the neurologist, and basically didn't have time to actually be at the computer. I wish I did, but all I had was my phone, so I basically just made flippant remarks to ease the stress. There, is that better? That's the reason I randomly disappeared for 48 hours. My fucking loser brother can't hold down a job and can't even keep custody of his kid who has special needs, so sometimes I gotta clean up after messes that aren't mine.

So there, I did what all you idiots do, which is talk about IRL things. Is this better than Dinner? Is this more convincing? No, you don't give a shit. none of the IRL things matter. I was away for 48 hours, but that was then, and this is now. when my life was on the line, I contributed. When VE was being lynched, I contributed. And when EVERYONE was wrong (or scum) and pushing LM, I was there to try to make the best of it. It doesn't matter if I was eating a long long dinner or if my nephew needed someone to take care of him during a medical emergency. all that matters is how I played before, and how I played after.

I played for the town.

Everything I've done this game, I've done to foster a good environment. I've kept less active people involved. I've forced people to give opinions when they were quiet. I've driven most of the lynches and god damn it, everyone knows my reads and where I stand. yeah, it's easy for me to look bad because i'm outspoken, because I don't hide or vascillate or waffle. I'm here to talk and I push my reads, because that's what I do. I was wrong, twice-- on 27nb and VE. But I was also right twice, on mderg and on LM. And when I was right OR wrong, I made sure the thread stayed active. When I thought I'd die D2, I tried to leave behind reads and engage the thread.

i've done everything I can to make this decision easy for you.

and gods be damned, I'm gonna make the best of this, too. sloosh, I stayed up 2 hours waiting for your reply so you better have replied to this post by the time I wake up.

Also I didn't read the vote by vote thing, I was just looking at your helpful vca diagram, i'm looking at what happened at the end of the day. and honestly it's worth noting that Release was on me D1, and NOT on me D2. you can't deny this.

And let's be real here, I play a good scum, but

1) everything I've done is pro town. most of this town's good atmosphere and environment is due to me and me alone
2) there's a freaking green check on me, just like there was on LM, and just like there is on you, sloosh.
3) i also play a good town. A damn good town. and you need to engage me and discuss with me and not say "roll credits" because you OWE it to me. You OWE it to me to talk to me and give me a chance to convince you. You're not 100% on me being scum, which means you have to admit it; you could be wrong.

which means we need to keep talking. If I'm scum, catch me. I'm good scum, as you say. Then read my games history and show how I'm like my scum games. If I'm town, that will show; and if I'm scum, that will show.

We're not done, sloosh. Respond to the Release vote on D1. Respond to what I say about myself. Respond to the green check. you KNOW it's wrong to go lynching down the list of green checks. you KNOW it. yes, I could be a gf or a framer who framed himself, sure. But maybe the scum pr is an rb (unlikely given the gk kill, but super common non-conseq doc + 1x cop setup). this would mean there's no cop-fooling role, which means you and I are town.

Chezinu understands this as well as I do. we gotta get our shit together. I've done everything I can to work for the town, and you've been tunnelled on me forever. I bet if LM flipped scum, you'd call e scum for it, and if he flipped town, youd' call me town for it. please, sloosh, THINK for a moment.

On June 16 2014 11:34 YouKnowZhou wrote:


Yeah in the YKZ quote nobody thought I was blazinghand, so I thought I could get away with the fallacious "scumslip" argument, since you guys clearly aren't willing to accept the reasonable Kenpachi Rule argument. The fact of the matter is, 27nb IS scum because of Kenpachi Rule. I'm allowed to lie, cheat, steal, etc (well not cheat but you get the idea) to get you sheep to follow me and lynch him. The ends justify the means.

also, 27nb's retconned case on me that's about me saying s/he doesn't have good info is based on, you guessed it, another scumslip. Let me get it through everyone's heads: I, Blazinghand, am by far the best scum player on TL Mafia. I may not be an amazing town player, I admit, but I am a GOD of scum, I only ever scumslip as town. You can look at my past games; every time someone calls me out for a scumslip, I'm town. You know why? As town, I don't have to bother worrying about scumslips cause I know I am innocent. As scum, I play a much cleaner game in terms of slips because I have to.

So, 27nb's slip-based case on me actually proves how townie I am, and his/her hilarious backtracking on calling me potentially blue only shows how scummy 27nb is.

On June 27 2014 08:11 YouKnowZhou wrote:


Ok, I see what you're saying. I'm just confused because 2 hours ago you said this:



But this makes sense. In your mind, you are thinking "I expect YKZ and LM to be scum together. A large amount of my scumread on them is an associative tell between unflipped players. If one of them flips town, my scumread on the other becomes weaker, more on par with my scumread on Koshi-- so I'll need to re-evaluate."

Is that accurate?

On June 27 2014 08:30 YouKnowZhou wrote:


Don't give up. Keep talking. Keep giving reads. We need to play on after you're dead. If you're town, don't be mad. be vigilant. Tell me something I acn use tomorrow; anything.



Fair enough. Take a moment, if you would, to look at how Koshi and how LM have played today. Has LM tried to get basically anyone who's not him lynched? Yeah, but I can't blame him.

But at least Koshi is giving reads. He wants town to go onw hen he dies. And Koshji? Koshi has done literally nothing but complain about possibly being lynched, defending himself, voting LM,a nd as asoon as it's clear his life is no longer in imminent danger, Koshi is GONE. He doesn't care about what happens. Yeah, he's probably REALLY actually watching soccer games and stuff, but look. The guy only defends himself and gets pissy about potentially getting lynched. Who here has been the better townie?

The answer is LM. We should lynch Koshi today.

On June 27 2014 08:34 YouKnowZhou wrote:
Lm, you briefly voted Chez here: (link). Could you explain the reasoning behind your vote and your general read on chez? Since he's not the cop, we need to make sure we have a good read on him going into LYLO. What do you really think of him? Remember, as far as we know, Artanis saved this guy from a KP during N2.



Ok, I understand. You're saying "I want to lynch one of YKZ/LM, but if we hit LYLO we need to reconsider everything and not fuck up". That makes total sense to me.