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On June 06 2014 02:02 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2014 02:00 Palmar wrote:On June 06 2014 01:54 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Well, here's something that I don't get.
If you're not mafia, why aren't you pushing people who you think are mafia?
If I were you, I'd be trying to get everyone to vote for fuba. I'm not convinced it's fuba. So if you guys could all be dears and start trying to figure out. Just pretend for the next 24 hours that I'm confirmed town, and go scumhunt the other two. Use reasons and stuff. Then you can come back to me and lynch me. But it's hard to scumhunt when people are constantly pushing me as mafia for awful reasons. Here's the thing. It's either you or fuba. I'm lynching both you and fuba. The only question remaining is who to lynch first. I believe that you're a more competent player, and that if you were mafia, it'd be easier for you rather than fuba to wiggle your way out of a lynch. So you're my target today. If you're not mafia, it's fuba.
I agree that we lynch palmar over me, but if you disregard mderg when actual thread events explain how he could easily be scum, then you're throwing the game away.
- He hard-hard-hard defends jabber while not actually searching for scum.
- Chrom points this out and he's dead the next day
- he votes MZ early on D2, comes back about a day later (when the sloosh wagon appears nigh-untouchable) and jumps on strong
- At that point, if he's bussing his teammate, he can't possibly switch wagons or it'll look really suspicious for him
- He is "roleblocked", making him look even more townie after the lynch
- He spends the rest of the game basically agreeing with Amiko
I'm not so much doing this to accuse mderg as to make everyone see that it's absolutely possible for him to be scum. Don't ignore him just because he voted SlOosh. If he's scum, a sloosh lynch seemed unavoidable unless some gullible townie waltzed in and convinced half the town to switch to MZ. By the time that happened, he had committed to the bus. He could not have switched back without looking very suspicious. The only people who should actually be acting like this is a solved game are me, palmar, and mderg, because we're the only ones who actually know where the scum is, 100%.
Oh, and Haru's "case" on me has been responded to, and the response has been ignored. It isn't strong. It's based on the dying words of confirmed scum. There's no legitimacy to that argument whatsoever. I'll be around, but I dunno if I'll respond to a whole lot. I can't keep up with post speeds like Amiko and Palmar have been churning out, and the most anything I've posted this game has accomplished is almost diverting a lynch from scum to town, so I don't see anything I have to say actually changing anyone's opinion of my play. I'm certain the scum is between palmar and mderg, but am really uncertain which one it actually is. To me, it doesn't matter, because there are two days to lynch scum.
In my own defense: I'll suggest you look at my interactions with gobble and try to explain it as two scum interacting. Unfortunately, at the time, the only person I asked for a response directly was SlOosh, so I was discouraged from a scum lynch by scum. (this is the kind of thing I was referring to when I said I'm not used to my words having this much impact, because a completely legit case against scum was completely ignored by everyone in town) Do you think that was a ploy involving the entire scumteam?
##Unvote
##Vote: mderg
Because why not~
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I've considered it, and I'd say it's more likely that they used it, particularly without a watcher. But I wouldn't completely count it out that they'd hold it in order to put us in the exact situation we're in now, where most of town won't consider mderg to even possibly be scum.
I know that it's likely that after Palmar, I'm next. And since I know I'm town, that would mean us losing the game (this is in the situation that palmar flips town, otherwise we wouldn't be lynching me at all XD). Preserving myself is a somewhat scummy mindset, as I said when I was voting for jabber, but it's kinda the mindset that all three of us have found ourselves in. Of me, palmar, and mderg, the one who gets the other two lynched wins the game. So while I hope it's Palmar, since that's definitely the easiest hurdle at this point in the game, mderg is the only other option if it's not. And I've been tricked by a scum ploy a few times this game already, so I'd like to be prepared if this is another one.
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I also realize that both Palmar and I, whether town or scum, will probably want to lynch mderg first because mderg is a much more difficult person to lynch than myself or palmar, respectively.
I'm not sure there's a way for town to win out of this situation if Palmar isn't scum, tbh XD I feel like if I'm lynched first then Palmar is almost definitely the next lynch, judging from the thread recently. And if Palmar is lynched first then I'm not sure I see people lynching mderg over me, when even I've admitted that it makes more sense that he was actually roleblocked than scum is faking the roleblock.
Because my game feels pretty much over either way, I'll just sheep Amiko.
##Vote: Palmar
Because why not~
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On June 06 2014 12:57 Amiko wrote:So for fuba/palmar/mderg, regardless of their alignment these players should understand that their team will 100% win if the other two players are lynched. So, for Palmar I think we talked through your motivations and I wasn’t really convinced, but maybe if you raise some points on mderg and fuba it’ll change my mind. Okay, so let's go through fuba's points on mderg- Fuba raises the point that mderg doesn’t actively push people on d1 and really just hard-defends jabber – when Chrom raises this point, Chrom dies the next day I think there is some legitimacy to the first part of this point, though mderg does raise some concerns on M_Z by the end of the day. But, rereading Chrom’s post, I feel that he is indicating more of a town-lean on mderg so I’m not sure the second part of the point pans out. Chrom’s post: + Show Spoiler + On May 30 2014 06:35 Chromatically wrote:mderg just feels really genuine to me. I think it would be easy for scum to randomly throw out a scumread to push when I started pressuring him, but mderg didn't back down, which is a much townier position. Scum would be more aware of how strange it looks that they're not pushing a read and would invent one to push. Show nested quote +On May 28 2014 23:43 mderg wrote:On May 28 2014 23:23 Chromatically wrote:
mderg, what would you say your objective is for today? What outcome would you be most happy with?? Well, my objective is to lynch scum but I don´t think that´s what you want to hear. It´s difficult to find a proper answer to that question because it´s not like I have someone I really want to lynch. I still don´t want jabber to be lynched. The outcome I would be most happy with would be lynching someone who is not jabber and scum. But since my defense for jabber didn´t seem to convince people I don´t think someone else will be lynched. I´d also be happy, if jabber flipped scum. That would make me wrong but it would put us in a good position. Genuine doesn't necessarily mean town though (I'm very wary of calling mderg town for that one post Palmar liked, I think that could easily come from scum). But, I think his posts show a townie thought process about honestly wanting to defend jabber. 2) Regarding mderg’s move to slOosh from M_ZTo me, I think mderg is town not only because his vote ended the day on slOosh (though that is a good sign) but also because of the timing of his switch. For context of when mderg switches to slOosh, check this - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=38#741 – Koshi did a vote count and mderg is the next post. So, when mderg switches, the votes are like this: Show nested quote +On May 31 2014 20:55 Koshi wrote:
Meapak_Ziphh (3) - HaruRH, Palmar, mderg, SlOosh,
slOosh(4) – Amiko, Alakaslam, HaruRH, sqrtofneg1
Sqrtofneg1(1) - fuba
Not voting (3) : – 27ninjabunnies, Meapak_Ziphh, gobbledydook
What is significant to me about this vote count is the split: sloosh at 4, M_Z at 3. I feel like at this point, the votes were split such that I don’t feel mderg would feel he has to vote for a mafia teammate. I think he could have stayed on M_Z without much suspicion if he really wanted to, or could have even waited until a few more people voted to decide whether to change his mind. I just feel like the changed vote on mderg feels really inconsistent with scum play due to its timing, as well as its result. (Still going through thread)
1) Fair enough. I was going off of mderg's filter, where chrom seemed really suspicious of him. Looking at the timestamps, chrom posted his updated reads 4 hours before the N1 deadline, so his previous suspicions might have still been on scum's mind when they sent in the kill. Regardless, my point may be moot on this count simply because it looks like chrom's reads list has significant suspicion of both sloosh and gobble, and he appeared pretty townie D1, so his death didn't need to relate to mderg at all. A more thorough filter dive would be needed to tell if chrom's suspicions of sloosh and gobble were as obvious prior to his reads list, but I don't have the time at the moment :S
In any case, I'd like to draw attention to the fact that mderg asks me for my thoughts on gobble and MZ at some point D1. I respond with my thoughts on gobble (my MZ thoughts to come later, as I had limited time), to which he responds that he disagrees with anything I say that might make gobble scum. He then writes a case on MZ being scum. SlOosh also asks me for my MZ read at some point. It makes me feel like scum wanted me to set up a case on MZ for them to sheep onto. To simplify: Mderg asks me for my thoughts on scum and town, I give my thoughts on scum, he says those thoughts don't indicate scum, he makes a case on town. It seems odd to ask for my thoughts on gobble for no reason, only to make a case on MZ. It's a weird progression, particularly with sloosh also wanting my input on MZ. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, idunno.
2) Not entirely accurate. I'd have to check bunnies' filter again, but it felt like her vote was promised to sloosh, since she said she had promised a case on him, but ran out of time. And MZ was clearly going to vote for sloosh. Gobble's vote, presumably, would have been going to MZ. All of the votes were already dedicated to someone, and it would have left:
Meapak_Ziphh (4) - HaruRH, Palmar, mderg, SlOosh, gobbledydook
slOosh(6) – Amiko, Alakaslam, HaruRH, sqrtofneg1, 27ninjabunnies, Meapak_Ziphh
Sqrtofneg1(1) - fuba
Not voting (0) : – none
At this point, there's no winning for scum. While the votes aren't placed, we can generally guess where they're going to fall. And scum would have been watching this carefully the entire time. Even removing bunnies' vote, in case I'm incorrect, and adding my vote if I went for MZ instead, sloosh is still getting lynched over MZ, and that's with the entire scumteam on that wagon. This is actually the perfect time for him to switch over, because it still looks like the lynch is up in the air, when it's pretty much decided already. They don't want the entire scumteam on one wagon, it gains towncred to switch wagons "early", and the sloosh lynch looks inevitable. Scum have more information, and this looks like a situation where they used it pretty well to their advantage.
Huh, palmar's kinda in the same boat as mderg in this situation, except he doesn't switch. My instinct tells me this is evidence of palmar being more likely town than mderg. Dunno though, would have to give that a bit more thought than I have time for atm.
I think there are more questions for me, but I just realized that my appointment is in 3 minutes, so I've really gotta go. I'll be back in an hour-ish.
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On June 06 2014 13:01 Amiko wrote:
@fuba:
Can you explain to me why you raised your case on sqrt when you did?
I think I raised the point earlier-
To me, the tone of your post seemed like you were just interjecting in a conversation you were involved in (you said something like "I'm glad you mentioned sqrt"). But, if you were following the conversation, I would have expected you to be caught up on the slOosh / M_Z lynches and weigh in on the bandwagons.
It seemed to me like that post just didn't belong at that time.
There's other stuff on D2 I'll try to bring up as I continue through thread.
I can't tell you exactly why, because I'm not 100% sure. It's true that the sqrt post didn't really belong at that time. Best explanation is that when I started writing it, I intended to not take hours to actually write it, but despite my best efforts I still take an eternity to write anything I feel is worthwhile. It was something that occurred to me as I was reading the thread, and wanted to mention it before I forgot. However, my thoughts got away from me, and it ended up taking some ridiculous amount of time to write, and ended up being all I did that night. I feel like the fact that his reads were jumping around like crazy reminded me of how it was pointed out that MZ's reads re: sqrt himself were jumping around like crazy, then I got sidetracked into a semi-case on sqrt. I can't actually remember what my point from that train of thought was, but I don't think it even ended up in the original post.
Basically, I sidetracked myself, lol
I think Palmar asked me why I dropped my case against gobble. I basically explained that already, but I read through my filter, and saw that some of the things that gobble was saying about me were true. From my own readthrough of my own filter, I didn't seem all that confident in the jabber lynch. That removed part of my problem with him - that he was misrepresenting me. Additionally, I asked someone what they thought of what I'd said about gobble. This is actually more than I usually do XD Unfortunately, the person I asked was SlOosh, who further discouraged me from my case. Since I had no one agreeing with me, and I had been operating from misinformation, I backed off. I did make it clear that I still found things he was doing to be scummy. If the rest of town doesn't feel like looking into it, there's nothing more I can do.
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On June 07 2014 04:47 Palmar wrote:
@fuba if you're town you better put at least the amount of effort I've put in today tomorrow.
Seriously, if you die with less than at least 60 in the final day and you flip town, I'm going to be really mad at you.
I'm not capable of posting that much. Just sayin'.
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On June 07 2014 08:41 Amiko wrote:Going through thread, was out longer than I expected. @Fuba: On mderg with gobble & M_ZI actually liked this point. I can’t put too much stock in it (if mderg is scum, Palmar is town and he was also pushing for M_Z around the same time) but it was something on mderg I hadn’t looked at. On mderg vote timingI think your point isn’t bad, but I do think scum could believe that sqrt would change his vote. At least, when talk started up about vote changing I wasn’t particularly surprised to see sqrt move his vote given how he had reacted to the votes the prior day. Can you explain what you mean by this a little more? Show nested quote +On June 07 2014 02:57 fuba wrote:
Huh, palmar's kinda in the same boat as mderg in this situation, except he doesn't switch. My instinct tells me this is evidence of palmar being more likely town than mderg. Dunno though, would have to give that a bit more thought than I have time for atm.
Trainpost.
Essentially, I meant that if its the ideal time to start bussing, then the fact that he didn't should indicate towniness. Of course, this assumes he was around, that the situation was as I say it was, and that he agreed to switch.
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I'm sad that the worst thing I've done all a game is make cases :/
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Lol, what part of my play makes you think I have all the information?
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In all honesty, I'd considered it, but we can't vote for ourselves.
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Sucks that Palmar was town, because what I said at the end of last night was true. I considered voting for myself because regardless of which of the other two is actually town, they have a better shot against the other than I see myself having. Regardless, I'll make an effort. This will be my first mislynch if it actually happens, and if possible I'd like to prevent that at least for the "bragging rights" XD
Thought it might possibly be helpful to have a look at my scum games. Typically they stress me out to no end, because I have intense trouble actually lying in a game of mafia. I'm pretty sure there are only two, unless you add in the one I had to withdraw from (again, they stress me the hell out XD).
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/418641-basterd-mini-mafia?user=mkfuba07&view=all
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/432880-white-flag-mafia?user=mkfuba07
I'm terrible at describing my self-meta, but I'll spell out things that I think are relevant.
In both games, I was essentially caught D1. I wormed my way into a myslynch on VA in Basterd because he wasn't there to defend himself, rofl. I'm apparently pretty obvious as mafia, so I actually found it funny when Palmar said I played a pretty clean scum game. I don't play clean scum games. It doesn't happen because I'm relatively incapable of doing so.
General defense thoughts:
As for me posting cases and not following up on them, I've done that in probably every game I've played. I write my case, I see if anyone agrees. If I don't get a positive response I assume I'm wrong, and I simply move on. I do not push cases, I let the cases push themselves. The exceptions are early game, when I try to be as sure of a lynch as I can be and hope that I've found a scum lynch target, and exceptionally late game, where I can focus my obsessive thoughts on the individual actions of 2-3 players and see whose actions make most sense from a scum perspective. All around, this self-description of my own town play accurately depicts what's gone on this game.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/407704-doctor-who-mafia?user=mkfuba07&page=3
My vote switch to deconduo at the end of Doctor Who mafia is an example of what I did all day yesterday. While I agreed that it was unlikely that scum held their roleblock for towncred, I found reasonable explanations for all of mderg's actions from a scum perspective. Deconduo made little sense based on the setup/generally-understood mechanics of the game, but I convinced everyone to vote him despite a seemingly impossible cop fakeclaim. I'll try one last time to make you see that mderg is scum, and suggest that it's certainly possible that mderg knew he wouldn't be cop checked after D2 because of his apparent quick jump onto the sloosh wagon. Which of us would have considered mderg to be the best target of a cop check that day? No one. Even if he didn't know this, the chances of him guessing who the cop is and roleblocking them was what, 1/8? Weigh that against the towncred gained from being roleblocked after "quickly" jumping on the sloosh wagon. 1/8 (or something) chance to possibly stop the cop from checking him (if he's even a likely cop check target, which he wasn't) compared to nigh-untouchability for the rest of the game. We accepted it because it seemed reasonable, but it also made him appear untouchable. Is that something a non-mderg-including scumteam planned on doing with that roleblock? Like, you're basically saying that I, as the last scum and roleblocker, ensured that I couldn't win the game, when I could have avoided it entirely. People are clearing mderg for something that scum have sole control over - when it is actually stronger indication that scum were trying to make mderg look like he's town.
I'm almost afraid to ask this question, but do you think that given my ability to consider situations like I've shown in this game as well as previous games, that after finally succeeding in not being killed D1 as scum, I would throw it away by nearly confirming mderg as town in the eyes of the rest of town?
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On June 08 2014 04:36 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 11:58 fuba wrote:I've gotta assume your question about sqrt is when you said that I needed to respond to his case. That is something that I've already done multiple times. I contributed my lynch target, I contributed my reasoning on my lynch target, and I hoped that he would flip scum so that I wouldn't have to deal with nonsense like this after D1. That is pretty much all I ever do D1, give or take random small comments if I have the time. If we disagree about what "contributing" means, we're going to keep doing so. I see no reason to form a read on every single person in the game on D1 when there is very little to go on, a lot of those reads will change because of the flip, and the majority of those reads are going to be really null for me, because I obsess and see possible explanations for situations that most people don't (An example is what I said about jabber's scumteam from last game knowing if he was lying. Amiko said only himself and scum should think about that, and yet I did.)1) I think he is scum. He twists my words to make me look bad. He ignores my question and attacks me instead. If he were town I think he would respond to my questions more directly and cut the misrepresentation. I ignored no questions, as you haven't asked me a question. you made a demand that I do something that I've already done repeatedly. You've actually ignored my questions. Repeatedly. I've also not twisted your words. I've looked at your words in context, and explained what they meant even if you didn't explicitly say it, as I saw them at the time. That is my means of scumhunting, a thing that only townies do. I'd like an answer to my questions now. Hey Fuba- I have other things to bring up, but here's one thing I considered - If you agree with me (that the line of thought I suggested is one that should only come from me or scum) isn't it fairly suspicious that you had that line of thought?
No. I brought up the point that if jabber didn't know the scumteam from the first game was posted, then he still knew that his ex-scummates were in the game, and would know that he's lying. You actually got that from me. You then said that you felt that only yourself and scum would think of that, and I disagreed because I am not scum and I thought of that. It's really my only strength in mafia - considering scenarios. I'm not a case-pusher, I'm not a high-poster, I'm not a town leader. Unless I'm really sure about something, I present my ideas and let the thread use them as they will.
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On June 08 2014 04:47 Amiko wrote:@Whoever: I raised some suspicion of Haru on D1 and again later http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=25#499http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=34#666We now know that Haru is confirmed town. Between mderg and Fuba, do you see either of these players indicating they may want to raise Haru as a mislynch later on in the game? Fuba seems to townread Haru somewhat and doesn't comment on my points on Haru much other than that- + Show Spoiler +On June 05 2014 02:32 fuba wrote:
Oh, and I keep bouncing around regarding sqrt. I don't see scum|sqrt preparing to scumread Amiko after the SlOosh lynch, because he would KNOW Amiko is town and KNOW SlOosh is scum. It would be a really weird chain of reasoning to then say that he thought Amiko was scum for pushing the mislynch so hard. Makes me think both Haru and sqrt are town, because I dunno, it's weird that they both agreed on that and came to the conclusion independently when they can't possibly both be scum. At the same time, saying that I seem townie to him (sqrt) for my thought process in a post entirely devoted to calling him scum makes me doubt my assessment of the sloosh situation. Then there's the fact that SlOosh spent the entire game looking for contradictions in peoples' play, and called out MZ, myself, and alakaslam for things he thought were contradictory, but ignored the contradictory statements in sqrt's filter, instead calling him townie for them. However, I'm placing more weight on the former than the latter because I don't want to give slOosh's last post too much sway.
K, srsly now. Responding to haru XD On June 05 2014 02:57 fuba wrote:
Response to the points brought up by Haru:
I don't see any reason to take much of what SlOosh said in that last post seriously anymore. He's confirmed scum, so whatever he said at that point was meant to drag us into wifom. So we shouldn't let it, and ignore most of it, as I'm trying to do with his comments about sqrt. Analysis >>> scum wifom.
As for me sheeping the MZ lynch, I should clarify I guess. MZ had been a prime lynch target for the better part of 2 days at that point. There was no way anyone I could suggest was being lynched over MZ even if I thought there was a better lynch. So I saw no point in analyzing anything that might prove pointless, rather than working on my two final projects that are due next week. Technically I wasn't even being lazy, I was just prioritizing my time.
I just checked out the votes from the SlOosh lynch again, and I feel like there's a really strong chance that all scum were on the MZ wagon D2, or the last one could have switched over and gotten a mislynch. Amiko was right in that since I was wrong, I was giving scum the chance to switch over to MZ easily. The fact that they didn't makes me feel that one of Palmar/sqrt/Haru is scum. I've already explained why I don't think sqrt and Haru are scum, so that leaves me with Palmar for tomorrow's lynch. mderg does show a little more attention to my points- + Show Spoiler +On May 29 2014 05:29 mderg wrote:
Regarding HaruRH:
I agree with Amiko that Haru´s play has been strange.
The part about the odds is not something I would take seriously. To me it seemed like some kind of joke post.
The second point Amiko raises about Haru is definitely strange play. It kinda seemed like throwing a fake lifeline to jabber in order to have some point against him regardless of how jabber continues to play.
The third point is something that could go either way. It´s difficult to get a clear read out of setup discussion.
So it´s definitely worth it to keep a closer eye on HaruRH. On June 01 2014 18:52 mderg wrote:
In general I think scum is either MZ or likely to be found on the MZ wagon. I´m rather confident that it´s one between MZ, Palmar, sqrt, HaruRH. I don´t think it´s fuba, he started that and put himself in the spotlight in a way you probably wouldn´t want to as scum. The voteswitch at the end was strange because I don´t think it was going too easily. I mean the case was solid and based on sloosh´s whole game, and there were still like 3 people voting MZ.
On June 04 2014 22:18 mderg wrote:
HaruRH was quite active the last few days and seems to be trying to solve the game. His plan of lynching sloosh´s scumlist is based is strange, though. It has solid reasoning behind it but it hugely based on assumptions about sloosh´s intentions. Coincidentally I don´t think HaruRH was on that list. I´m still leaning town on him but this is definitely in the back of my mind.
Looking at these two, it's tough to make a good call. On the one hand, mderg picks up on my points a little more, which initially would suggest to me that he might be looking at Haru as a potential mislynch. However, fuba basically ignores the points, so it's hard to say that's really towny. I think looking at the rest of the game, I like mderg's posts on Haru. He does seem to keep his eye on Haru through the game, and eventually seems to lean town on Haru despite the fact that I haven't really relented at that time. In other words, I feel that after M_Z dies, Haru should have been seen as a good mislynch candiate, but that's about when mderg is giving him a townread. So, although he gave the case more attention, it doesn't strike me as the way scum would approach Haru. Thoughts anyone?
I found Haru to basically be town since he and sqrt both said that they thought you were scum during the sloosh lynch. It would have been such an incredibly odd move for scum (I found it odd for anyone, but particularly because scum at the time would have known that you were pushing a scum lynch), and since two of them had the same exact thought I felt it could have only come from town.
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On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win.
I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock.
And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game.
Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever.
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On June 08 2014 05:04 Amiko wrote:One point I raised during the end of D2 was that it was strange how fuba was concerned M_Z's lynch was going too easily, but was not concerned about the same thing on jabber. Here's the exchange between me and fuba: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote:
Okay here's another good point
@sqrt:
Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber.
Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily.
Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote:
This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous.
Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote:
I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me.
His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times.
(cut)
Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote:
##Unvote
Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post.
If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh
It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba.
My reasoning had very little to do with the actual cases on the players. It was about the nature of the lynch itself. The basic logic behind it was: if everyone says they will vote on one of these two players, and one of those players is scum, then scum's goal is to sway the lynch towards the townie (turns out that they tried to do that but were unable to). This doesn't take into account your force behind the scum lynch, though, which was a pretty big mistake on my part. I basically overestimated the sway that scum had in that situation.
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I've got 2 hours in this lab left, so I'm going to get working on what I need the lab to do.
I guess what I'm ultimately going to suggest is that everyone looks at who did what would be best for them as scum in the situations scum found themselves in. I would say the pivotal point is definitely the sloosh lynch. Which of us came out of that situation looking better? Because scum had a long time to decide how they were going to handle sloosh being lynched. Is the scumplay 1) to bus him once it's inevitable that he's getting lynched or 2) spring a last-minute gambit that probably won't even work but will definitely make them look suspicious when sloosh flips (as he definitely would have even if MZ had been mislynched first). There's being unable to maintain a town guise as scum (this is my typical scumplay), and then there's just doing what's completely ill-advised as scum (which is what I would have done this game). If I'm scum, I've overcome my original scum-downfall only to instead become a complete idiot.
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On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town.
I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum.
But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan.
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On June 08 2014 06:31 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town. I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum. But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan. You don´t have to convince me, I know you´re scum, but that doesn´t mean I can´t tell people why your play made sense as scum. You mean like me putting myself in the spotlight on the jwz lynch? You knew Palmar was also trying to get people´s votes over to MZ, so you knew there might still have been a chance to get the misslynch. You´re making things up about me knowing gobble wouldn´t be there where just gobble voting would have secured the misynch for you. I guess you were planning with gobble´s vote and thus only needed like 2 people to switch their votes. This wasn´t that unrealistic.
You can't know something that isn't true 
And no, me derailing a scum wagon onto town would have looked much worse than you defending a townie.
So you're saying I concocted a plan to force the entire scumteam onto MZ in order to prevent a sloosh lynch that would occur the following day, anyway, and reveal that the switch was clearly scum motivated? And I did so without knowing whether or not gobble would actually be there to support my daring ploy, which makes even the chance of getting a mislynch out of it pretty unlikely?
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On June 08 2014 08:58 Amiko wrote:
I'll be here for just a bit and write what I can-
@Fuba:
Regarding pushing lynches
I haven’t read all your games, but I took a look at the two you linked. In Basterd Mini Mafia, it seems like you pushed the WoS case and continued to do so until you died. In White Flag, it looks like you pushed hzflank in two posts.
In both games you went idle or died shortly after raising the issue, so it’s not like it’s a long string of posts on the people. But, only looking at the two games you posted, I don’t see support for the idea that you make cases and drop them. Anyway, we are talking meta so I can’t say too much for it either way.
On copchecks
I don’t disagree that mderg makes an unlikely cop check, but I think the problem is that scum loses ground even if I copcheck a town player. Obviously, it is worse for them if I check a scum player (and it becomes a loss if I catch a mafia with 2 already dead), but I feel like there’s still a strong incentive to try to roleblock the cop.
Just as evidence of this, if my n3 check (which was on fuba) had not been roleblocked, we would have won regardless of whether he was mafia or town. Without the roleblock, mafia loses. To me, this is really a razor-thin margin for scum to play with, so it’s hard for me to imagine they give up a roleblock when they are potentially so close to losing.
Regarding pushing lynches:
If anything, that indicates that I only really push my cases as scum, rofl. Those were my only two scum games. That's not the point I was trying to make with those filters, anyway. If you want to see support for me making cases and dropping them, feel free to look at literally any other game.
On copchecks:
I can follow your reasoning, but in this case it's leading you to the incorrect answer.
On June 08 2014 09:00 Amiko wrote:
Inevitability of slOosh lynch
I don't agree with Fuba's portrayal of the slOosh lynch as inevitable, just because it really ended up being so close.
I can't say for certani what scum was or wasn't thinking, but given that one vote (gobble) would have tipped the wagon I just have trouble believing scum felt it was inevitable.
It was. From the perspective of scum, particularly with gobbles clearly not participating and no reason to count on him, there is no way sloosh wasn't getting lynched, and even if he wasn't then it would require literally THE ENTIRE SCUMTEAM to pile onto MZ, who will flip town. Then sloosh will INEVITABLY be lynched the next day, and it will INEVITABLY be clear that it was a scum switch. The #1 best play for scum at that point is to bus him.
At the time of the bus, they needed 1) gobbles to come back, 2) three townies to switch over to MZ. This is all while you're convincing everyone to vote for sloosh for the same reasons as MZ, but more so. So they not only have to convince three townies without making it look like they led the mislynch afterwards, but they have to do it while you are convincing people that sloosh is MZ 2.0. How is that not clearly a pretty much impossible task? How is bussing him at this point not an incredibly good and obvious idea?
His responses to me feel so damn transparently scum, it's infuriating. Look at his last responses to me. He says that the motivation for actions is irrelevant, it's only actions that count (I paraphrased, so he can't come back and say I'm "misquoting" him like his scumbuddy did. He ignores the motivation by ignoring my entire post in order to focus attention on the action, while I ask him to explain what my MOTIVATION was. He can't provide any motivation. It's impossible for him.). THAT IS 100% SCUM MINDSET. The entire point of a bus is to make it look like you're town through your actions, and hope people don't see the motivation behind it. I have absolutely no idea how you can believe that it makes sense for me as scum to try to switch the lynch in the last few hours when there's no reasonable motivation for it, and yet there's a treasure trove of motivation for mderg to do exactly what he did as scum.
I have provided scum motivation for his actions, he can't provide scum motivation for my actions.
On June 08 2014 05:15 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:08 Amiko wrote:
@Mderg:
I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you? I don´t know. I guess it was because scum was scared of a doc save on me or because I was leaning town on fuba.
You're ignoring your own good points exclusively because of the roleblock. There was no reason to kill alakaslam over mderg. Alakaslam did nothing, mderg did something. Mderg is 100% the right shot. And there's absolutely no way that mderg actually believed that scum was scared of a doc save on him. In no situation was anyone but Amiko being doc saved (sqrt had the rules confused, but there's no way for scum to know that). This reply is complete nonsense. Why would he need a complete nonsense answer to this question? Because he's scum.
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On June 08 2014 06:31 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town. I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum. But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan. You don´t have to convince me, I know you´re scum, but that doesn´t mean I can´t tell people why your play made sense as scum. You mean like me putting myself in the spotlight on the jwz lynch? You knew Palmar was also trying to get people´s votes over to MZ, so you knew there might still have been a chance to get the misslynch. You´re making things up about me knowing gobble wouldn´t be there where just gobble voting would have secured the misynch for you. I guess you were planning with gobble´s vote and thus only needed like 2 people to switch their votes. This wasn´t that unrealistic.
Yeah, I "planned with gobble's vote" but didn't decide to discuss it with him in our QT. Or he wasn't in the QT so I went ahead and just put the entire scumteam on the shoulders of MIA gobble instead of doing a far more reasonable thing like bus the fuck out of sloosh.
On June 08 2014 06:22 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:51 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:04 Amiko wrote:One point I raised during the end of D2 was that it was strange how fuba was concerned M_Z's lynch was going too easily, but was not concerned about the same thing on jabber. Here's the exchange between me and fuba: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 09:10 Amiko wrote:
Okay here's another good point
@sqrt:
Yesterday fuba was content to go with a bandwagon on jabber. He kept his vote on jabber.
Today he is afraid of a bandwagon that is going too easily.
Yesterday's wagon went more easily. Today he is concerned. WAT On June 01 2014 09:11 fuba wrote:
This isn't a "too easy" argument from me. It's the argument that between two players that are relatively identical according to the reads of most players in the thread, this is the wagon that at least two scum are on. This lynch feels more uncertain than yesterday's, and more dangerous.
Hm, I guess it almost is a "too easy" argument, but I think the point still stands. And yes, I read people as town based on single posts all the time. If the rest of their filter is pretty "meh" to me, Seeing what I feel is a clear town mindset pretty much makes them town unless I have to completely reevaluate my reads and start from the beginning. I think there's a secondary point worth looking at regarding Fuba's play d2. Look at the beginning of his case on sqrt: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2014 15:45 fuba wrote:
I'm glad you mentioned sqrt, because he's someone who's stuck out to me.
His reason for unvoting jabber and voting palmar was that lynches like that end up being wrong. It turns out that he was right, but isn't that a really, really strange reason to unvote someone when you have legitimate reasons to believe he's scum in front of you? Then he swaps back to jabber in order to get more information, even though he thinks palmar is scummier. He then unvotes jabber because of his defense. Not the content of his defense, because that was scummy. He basically unvoted because jabber gave A reason. It wasn't a "too scummy to be scum" argument, it was just - he gave a reason, I think he's town. Then while interacting with Chrom, he says that he doesn't think jabber is town (except he actually did explicitly say "I think he's town now."), but he thinks there's a possibility that jabber is town. This is a really strange thing to say as town because unless someone is somehow modconfirmed scum, there is always the possibility that they're town. That's a given, it's understood by everyone. But he reiterates the fact that he thinks jabber is scummy, but might be town, but might also be scum, about 3-4 times.
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Fuba is pointing to sqrt's willingness to vote and unvote on jabber D1 as scummy. He points out that this is suspicious partly because sqrt is still willing to say that jabber may be mafia. But, consider fuba's play d2, specifically when he is moving from sqrt to M_Z: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2014 08:06 fuba wrote:
##Unvote
Something that's bugging me about this lynch is that if slOosh and MZ are generally considered to be scummy in similar ways, then scum could vote for either of them for generally the same reasons. So if they're not both scum, then it's far more likely that today will be a mislynch. SlOosh's last post made me feel like he's town, because he gave his reads instead of just ditching the thread when he's pretty definitely getting lynched. It could be a scum ploy, but his comments about Amiko make me really uneasy about lynching him. He appears to be looking at his own lynch from a townie's eyes. He sees that there are two similar wagons and the driving force behind one being stronger than the other is Amiko. He warns us against trusting anything Amiko says about non-MZ lynches D3 because if SlOosh is town then he knows Amiko's actions have brought scum within one mislynch of winning. That last post from SlOosh is possibly one of the towniest things in the thread, imo, because I find that mentality to be something that's pretty difficult to fake. He doesn't just say "don't trust Amiko", as I believe scum would do, but he took it a step farther and said not to trust him if he tries to push anything other than MZ D3. That is what I find so townie about this post.
If I have to vote for one or the other, at the moment, I'd ##Vote: Meapak_Ziphh
It bugs me that Palmar hasn't returned to the thread before this lynch, since he's on the MZ wagon but said he's be up for a SlOosh lynch. Dunno if I find him scummy for it, but given my current view of this as a scum-controlled lynch, his absence is allowing what I believe is going to be a mislynch to happen over his top scumread. Here, I think fuba is doing something along the lines of what he has accused sqrt of doing - fuba is basically using the idea that the majority vote would lead to a mislynch. There are some differences, to be fair. Fuba says he is townreading slOosh (and Haru and sqrt seem to feel the same way), so it's different from D1 sqrt who still suspected jabber. I think fuba's reasons are still a little different, too - he is saying that the two are scummy for the same reasons. From my point of view, the scummiest things on both players were the same, except applied more to slOosh. If you went with Palmar's argument (M_Z is scum because he called Palmar town after Palmar called M_Z scum), then the scummiest things on the players were different. I still would like you to explain this a little more fuba. My reasoning had very little to do with the actual cases on the players. It was about the nature of the lynch itself. The basic logic behind it was: if everyone says they will vote on one of these two players, and one of those players is scum, then scum's goal is to sway the lynch towards the townie (turns out that they tried to do that but were unable to). This doesn't take into account your force behind the scum lynch, though, which was a pretty big mistake on my part. I basically overestimated the sway that scum had in that situation. The base logic behind that makes sense but as you´ve also already said scum generally wants to split their votes. So I think that reasoning is kinda wrong, in that situation scum can´t change the situation too much just based on votes. The leading force for the sloosh lynch was Amiko who was very townie and besides his case there was actually not much else brought up about sloosh. I think there were actually more people trying to sway votes to MZ, so I don´t get how it could have seemed like scum were trying to direct to the sloosh lynch.
Points out that scum want to split their votes, says that my scumteam and I were all ready to pile onto a mislynch to save someone who would be lynched anyway the next day.
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EPT
