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I'm not twisting your words, but if you're arguing that dravernor's and dfs's suspicions aren't pertinent to your townread on Epishade, then I'm curious what it is that you are townreading him for, because for me that's the key piece of information that clears him. There's other stuff, like the fact that he and I were digging in so hard over the past few days to reread the thread, bring up relevant information and try to find the mafia, but the main thing that points to it for me is what the dead mafia said.
I don't think I get your last paragraph here either. You're saying it "could" be that I'm mafia and my teammates were instructed to throw suspicion on me so I could bus the hell out of both of them. Is that what you think happened, though? Sounds like a nitpicky question, but qualifying/distancing language, like using "could" when you mean "did," is typical of people who are being dishonest and don't want to get pinned down into a concrete position they don't feel comfortable supporting. If you're going to argue that theory, don't come at me with that "could" crap, we don't have time for dancing around like this.
And if it is what you think happened, then I think Occam's Razor is the way to go here. Was there extreme dissociation between the quiet mafia and the frontman mafia, such that the quiet mafia were actively calling their own frontman suspicious, sacrificing their faction's ability to steer discussion in the far-flung hope that should it ever get to 3p LYLO the frontman would be clear by way of busing his teammates? Or am I town and the mafia were just trying to discredit me before I lynched them? Obviously the latter.
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Epishade over the game has been town. There are a few reasons I view him as town, he has been trying to figure out the game, pushing reads and questions on people. The biggest thing for me that showed me he is town is that he reconsidered voting on me an took off his vote, as i explained in a previous post, is more indicative of town because if he were mafia here, he could have just kept his vote on me to push for a mislynch, because it is pretty obvious you are not changing your vote on me. Cause as you said, all of the data points straight at me. ( that was sarcasm by the way)
You are obviously grasping at straws here. Don't give me the whole "you used 'could' instead of 'did'" bull crap. What i'm trying to do here is be objective . Yes. I think that is exactly what happened. But by being objective, im considering the possibility it didnt. Im looking at possible scenerios, ones that could make sense or do make sense. They are my thoughts on how you may have led your mafia team. But they are just thoughts. Doesnt mean i am right. I have no idea what you and the others discusse d in your qt. so saying me using could instead of did is you just trying to find a stupid reason to call me mafia.
Yeah, no idea what occam's razor is, so im just going to ignore that. And yes, i believe there was extreme dissociation. Doing so basically puts you in a brighter light because of it. Fypov, you think the latter. Mpov its the previous.
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I pushed you on the could/did thing because I want your theory for what happened on the record, we don't have time to dance around. When you say "X could happen" then I have to ask "so did it?" Otherwise you haven't actually given your position, you're just throwing out hypotheticals.
Knowing now that it's your belief that I'm mafia, that I instructed dravernor and dfs to scumread me, and that I sold both my teammates up the river and essentially set them up to be pinatas for me to knock down to prove my towniness, I'm just gonna Occam's Razor this shit again. Simplest explanation is the best. If the choice is between "Eden is mafia and has been orchestrating this grand conspiracy from the first day where he talks a lot and tries to steer discussion while his teammates throw dirt at him, then he buses them at an opportune moment to ride off into the sunset with the victory" and "Eden is town and eventually helped catch the mafia," it's not a choice at all, the second explanation is much more sensible.
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Again with the occams razor crap. I don't care. It's only "sensible" because you are trying to make it sensible! It is very possible that you told drav and dfs to put more suspicion on you because there wasn't enough suspicion on you and someone might read into it, say, like me. So don't freaking tell me one is more "sensible" than the other. No screw that! It's nt a conspiracy. It's a play by mafia that can easily be done! I'm trying to find mafia here, and you are pushing things that have no matter, like the could-did crap.
And i wasnt dancing around. You are only making it seem like I was dancing around. I specifically put exactly what I thought, and you tried to take it and make it something its not. Whether i used the word "could" or "did" does't matter!
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So i have about an hour left before I have to drive, and I won't be here for the end. If anyone needs to address me they need to do it now. I'll give my final defense in an hour if the consensus is still me, or if neither of you speak in that time. Then i'll leave ya'll to discuss. It's the best I can do.
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Oh jeeze. I feel like whatever decision I make will be the wrong decision.
I have gut feeling that Bunny is town and Eden is scum, but there are a few things I didn't like that both of you guys have ended up doing the past day or two.
Eden I didn't like that you believed that Bunny panicking was indicative of her mafia alignment. It seemed like you wanted to say that to sway me to solidify my vote against her. Your parity cop explanation I didn't particularly care for either, but I may be reading too much into that so I'm not sure. I would also disagree that changing my vote isn't indicative of my alignment.
Bunny I didn't like that there were many times that you cleared yourself (and dfs and Drav cleared you too) under circumstances that I would find questionable, as well as saying things like Drav was scumreading me on and off the whole game, when really it was only half of the first day. It's stretching the truth. Eden at least was able to keep it objective in what their thoughts on him were.
So I guess I have to decide on a gut-feeling vote, Eden, or a vote based on the data, Bunny.
I have to grab something to eat...
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Final defense:
Why i am town:
I've been proactive throughout the game.
I've led lynches where i felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia.
I've questioned reads, reconsidered positions, and also got a mislynch pulled off of meat and yellow.
I was being read as town by the entire town.
I have given logic behind my reads, given information on why I think epishade is town, and a bit why eden is mafia, including possible logical scenerios that could have taken place.
Epishade, i still don't see how my quoting places where drav scum read me is not visible. It was well beyond day 1. Look at the time stamps.
One of you is town, the other is mafia pushing a mislynch on me.
If epishade is mafia here, which i dont think so, then gg, wp. You've just sat back laughing at two town fighting for two days.
If eden is mafia and happens to convince epishade im mafia in the next couple of hours im gone, then well played. I commend you for fabulous effort, and find you quite the worthy opponent and looking forward to post game discussion.
It was fun playing with you guys and a fun final 3 for my first forum game
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On May 17 2014 02:33 Epishade wrote:
Eden I didn't like that you believed that Bunny panicking was indicative of her mafia alignment. It seemed like you wanted to say that to sway me to solidify my vote against her. Your parity cop explanation I didn't particularly care for either, but I may be reading too much into that so I'm not sure. I would also disagree that changing my vote isn't indicative of my alignment.
You're welcome to disagree with me re: her panicking, but I'm standing by what I said there, it was way too early to panic and I think scum would be more likely to do that than town in this instance. It's not even close to the main cog in my argument so I'm not really concerned with it either way.
re: vote change, the only reason it looks townie imo is because I independently think you're town from the other data in the thread. If we're just looking at it in isolation, you could be mafia changing your vote because you know town!bunnies would happily go with it to avoid being lynched, or you could be town changing it due to a genuine change of heart on your read on her. It doesn't say anything either way on its own. What DOES say something either way is you being scumread the whole game by dravernor and dfs, that's as close to ironclad proof as we're gonna get.
On May 17 2014 02:48 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Final defense:
Why i am town:
I've been proactive throughout the game.
I've led lynches where i felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia.
I've questioned reads, reconsidered positions, and also got a mislynch pulled off of meat and yellow.
I was being read as town by the entire town.
I have given logic behind my reads, given information on why I think epishade is town, and a bit why eden is mafia, including possible logical scenerios that could have taken place.
- I've been more proactive throughout the game.
- I've led lynches where I felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia.
- I've questioned reads and reconsidered positions. I can't remember explicitly saving a townie from being mislynched, but I also don't remember her doing this either, because I don't remember where meat or Yell0w were serious threats to be lynched.
- All three of us have been solidly townread by the town.
- I did this as well, to much greater depth and detail than bunnies did.
- The data from our dead mafia points more strongly at her than me; see my comments re: Occam's Razor in the last couple of posts for details.
- I've been much more objective in analyzing all three of us and the reads the dead mafia gave on each of us this turn, whereas I don't think bunnies has done the same; she's done an awful lot of insisting that she's town instead of allowing the data to demonstrate it, and it's because the data doesn't and can't demonstrate it.
I acknowledge it's not a clear-cut decision for you Epishade but I think the data ultimately does point to bunnies as the final mafia over me.
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Ok, so I think I've made my choice. I looked through a lot of the game and, honestly, both of you have some suspicious things about them. Drav and dfs had kind of been fencing/verge of scumreading Eden all game and townreading Bunny the whole game, too. It's hard to say that Eden isn't town when he's been fenced/scumread by Drav and dfs all game.
As much as I credit Eden for driving the lynch on Drav, I now believe it was a bus. Drav was voted on by Bunny first, and then by Yellow. Lynching Drav right then, someone already suspicious, would give Eden a lot of town credit, especially if he drove hard to lynch her. Yellow changed his vote off Drav when Eden voted for Drav because Yellow didn't think a mafia (Eden) would want to bus Drav right then. Eden may have been able to stay on the Meat lynch, but I think maybe he saw another opportunity to distance himself from his partners by having dfs split his vote with him, as lynching Meat would likely be able to put a lot of suspicion on dfs and Drav, which might lead to Eden later. Dfs voted for Meat, Ahs switched to Drav, and Drav voted for Meat. Eden knew Drav was dead, which was why he was arguing so strongly for him. When Yellow switched to dfs, Eden strongly argued against lynching dfs, in favor of Drav, under the premise that Yellow was scum so dfs must have been town.
Eden was the only person who saw Yellow as scum past day 3, when Tamburini wasn't blocked from shooting. He tried to get a lynch going on Yellow instead of dfs, who seemed to me to be more scummy in my eyes. Nobody went for Yellow, understandably, and Eden switched to dfs at the end. I think Eden wanted to save dfs from being lynched, but saw that he couldn't at that point and voted on dfs instead with the rest of the group.
Before that, Eden also argued strongly for the Tamburini lynch, a lynch that I really didn't want to go through after Tamburini claimed vigi. I disagreed with it then, but I thought I saw Eden's reasons for doing so anyways (eliminating an extra kp in the night). Now, from the perspective that Eden is mafia, I can especially see how he would want to lynch Tamburini. Tamburini can't get shot in the night if he chose protection, which is why Eden wanted to lynch him right then. It makes more sense from a mafia perspective, to me, to want to lynch a vigi claim with the chance that they're actually serial killer. If they're not a serial killer, hell you lynch a vigi anyways, or at least a fakeclaiming townie.
Yellow getting shot last night. Honestly, it had to be Yellow out of the three of us if Eden were scum. There was no way Yellow wouldn't have voted for Eden, and there was no way I or Bunny would have voted on Yellow. This kind of goes against my wanting to analyze the Yellow death last night, but I'm bringing it back again. Bunny didn't push all that hard on Yellow's death being a deciding factor in reading Eden as scum, which, to me, was unusual. Had she tried to push it that Eden had killed Yellow for these reasons, I'd have considered it as Bunny trying to frame Eden. Even though I had that scenario listed before, I'm surprised Bunny didn't try to attempt it anyways. Having seen Bunny's reactions, I think scenario 1 I listed is more likely, that Eden killed Yellow to prevent Yellow from voting on him.
The past 2 days have also made me decide to switch. Eden's pushing on Bunny for reasons that I don't find scumworthy have made me suspicious. Her panicking does not indicate her as scum, like Eden seems to think so. I don't think it indicated her as town tbh, but placing a scumread on her panicking wasn't a very good reason for me. You pushing her on arbitrary word choice, even I could care less about that. Your answers to my parity cop questioning I didn't find all that acceptable either.
I also feel that Eden sided with me over Bunny specifically because both he and I were scumread by Drav and dfs (though him less so than me). By clearing me as town because of their reads, he's indirectly clearing himself a bit and putting pressure on Bunny because she's read as town by them. It's a good way to get me on his side against Bunny. Bunny had less to protect herself with anyways as she hasn't contributed nearly as much as Eden and I have had, so it wouldn't be hard to push her for that.
Eden's played a great town this game. But his sticking on Yellow, and deflecting on dfs after Yellow voted on dfs has swayed me to change my mind. I don't think I'm changing my vote now Eden. Sorry if you're town.
##Vote: Eden1892
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I'm not really sure what to say about the Yell0w read that isn't obvious. I got it wrong. Mercifully I didn't get it wrong at 3p LYLO, and we still have 1.5 hours to make the right call. I didn't want to save dfs from getting lynched on the day he did, I just didn't trust the lynch when both of my scumreads at the time were on it. Wouldn't you have doubted it too, in my shoes? In the end I voted to kill him despite my concerns, and it worked out for us. I don't see how being skeptical of the right lynch, but eventually getting on it anyway, is scummy.
The Yell0w nightkill IS still WIFOM in the end. You say bunnies didn't try to scumread me for it, but she definitely did! I can go pull several posts from this day where she did exactly what you're saying she didn't do. And I don't think she has to have "framed" me to be scummy here. Yell0w wasn't going to get mislynched. You both had absolutely townread him. If either of you had been mafia, don't you think I'd have noticed you do a complete 180 at 3p LYLO to vote with me to kill Yell0w? Yell0w was the only person who was for sure not going to get lynched, so he got nightkilled. Anything beyond that is unverifiable speculation.
You're correct that I sided with you over bunnies because you were scumread by dravernor and dfs. It has nothing to do with my alignment. My choice is between you two, my alignment doesn't play into it at all. That choice was pretty clear.
In your analysis, you haven't answered the crucial question I've been posing to bunnies (with no satisfactory answer). Why would dravernor and dfs be setting themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning? That's the only consistent explanation for how I can be their teammate, and it's not plausible at all. Looking at the day-of events on the day dravernor was lynched isn't the right way to assess whether dravernor was bused; looking at the events prior to it is the right way to make that assessment. I nulled or scumread her the whole way up to the lynch, she nulled or scumread me the whole way up to the lynch. That's not the profile of mafia busing mafia, that's the profile of a town player successfully sniffing her out as mafia and making sure she got lynched. I think if I were mafia on that day, I could have gotten ahswtini lynched without much of a problem, since I was scumreading her as well and several others were too. Busing when other options are available is typically a pretty terrible move, and I think it's pretty obvious I didn't bus here as a result, because I would have had other options had I been mafia.
You still have time to make the right call here. You know what the data's telling you. The theory that I had my teammates set themselves up to be bused so I could ride to the end just doesn't add up. Even in your last post here, which had several good arguments in it, you couldn't coherently explain how this happened; you explained piecemeal details that don't make sense as a whole picture. It's because that's not what happened. I didn't bus either of dravernor or dfs, because I'm not mafia. I'm town.
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bunnies has been opportunistically trying to get whomever she can lynched today. She built a big case on you that didn't really follow, she said she "couldn't find anything she didn't like" in my filter, and voted you. Then when I rightfully didn't budge, she turns on me and votes me. Is that the way a townie plays at the end? Just voting whomever she can get lynched, instead of trying to find the right kill? You'll notice that, had I been mafia, I had the chance to allow myself to be persuaded by her case against you, but I dug in and stood my ground on your innocence. Why? Because I knew she was mafia, and you were town. The data is overwhelmingly clear about you being town.
It's frustrating that her flip flop has gone completely unnoticed here, because I feel like it went unnoticed because I didn't bite on it. How does she go from "I can't find anything in Eden's filter I don't like" to being convinced I'm mafia? It just doesn't make sense!
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One hour left. It's unfortunate bunnies can't be around, but I'm here to answer any questions or concerns you've got.
Think it over some more. You know what your brain is telling you to do. It doesn't make sense any other way. She has to be mafia. dravernor's and dfs's actions across the whole game don't fit any other possible partner.
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You're still here right? It'd suck for us to lose on an untimely afk
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Eden, I know you've been more objective and data focused this game. But I can't help but think that a lot of the data, such as Tamburini getting blocked and Yellow not getting shot clearing Yellow as town was completely ignored by you. You just seemed to push that information aside and vote for Yellow regardless, while trying to convince people to join you at the same time. The deflection from dfs, because you thought Yellow was scum might have been alright, but to me, Yellow had no reason to be scum at that point.
Yes, dfs and Drav weren't directly townreading you like they were Bunny, but I feel like them fencing you the whole game isn't indicative either. Bunny brought it up before that everyone was townreading her at that point. How strange might it look if dfs and Drav hadn't townread Bunny?
Tamburini lynch as well. It feels like you were pushing town in a direction that I was not willing to go. When someone claims vigi, my first thought isn't to immediately lynch them for being a possible serial killer. That's a potential loss of a vigi, which can only hurt town. I don't feel the extra kp that killing a serial killer would lose us was worth lynching a potential vigi over.
You being mafia would mean that you were bussing Drav the whole game. You've been scumreading her from day 1, too.
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##Unvote
For now. I guess I gotta make a decision pretty soon then.
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Just got to my hotel so gonna quickly read through things! Not sure how much time I have left!
But please! Please!!! Whoever is town here DO NOT VOTE ME!!!
I am town! I'll do anything and absolutely anything to defend myself to the death here!!!
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I didn't ignore any data regarding tambo and Yellow, though. My argument was that the mafia had a better read on another PR and decided to take the chance on tambo not shooting since it had been argued in the thread that a misfire that night would lose the game for town. The argument ended up being wrong obviously since Yell0w was town, but I didn't ignore any data, I just read the wrong conclusion out of multiple valid conclusions from the data we had. It was a wrong read, but it wasn't borne out of willful ignoring of data, just the wrong conclusion from that data.
The problem with dfs's and dravernor's townreads isn't that they townread bunnies for no reason, it's that they didn't townread me. The choice here isn't "townread Eden and don't townread bunnies" vs "townread bunnies and don't townread Eden." The choice is "townread Eden and bunnies" (indicating I'm their partner) or "townread bunnies but not Eden" (indicating I'm not their partner). I don't think it's suspicious in and of itself that they townread bunnies, I think it's obvious that bunnies has to be the partner because they didn't townread me as well. If I were their partner they could easily have townread me to give my arguments added credibility and been able to justify that townread without much problem. But they didn't, because I'm not their partner.
re: tambo lynch d1, I understand why you wouldn't agree with my reasoning if you were worried that tambo was the vig, but I was really sure at the time that it was a fakeclaim. I hate to dig into my limited meta here to back myself up, but in the only other game I've played here, I pushed for a lynch on an un-counterclaimed parity cop on d1 as town because I didn't believe his claim. If I think it's more likely that someone is anti-town than they are town, even after factoring in a role claim, I don't let the role claim on principle stop me from trying to lynch them.
We might end up x-posting here, but you still haven't answered the crucial question I keep harping on here -- why would dravernor and dfs set themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning like this? It requires prescience that I would end up in the final three, which doesn't make sense at all. One, there's no way to know that on D1, and two, scum don't play for a win like that, they try to get as many people to LYLO as they can so they have as much control of the endgame vote as they can. Willfully sacrificing two thirds of their voting power to push one guy to the endgame doesn't make sense.
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15 minutes. Not to push you into making a hasty decision, Epishade, but we're low on time. Is there anything else you need me to address? I think I've made my case for bunnies being the last mafia pretty well.
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Okay i want to poit out something, i andwered your questions, eden, and you chose to ignore it! I said that the play of drav and dfs putting slight suspicion towards you towards the end was due to you telling them they needed to. Like i said, it was just a possible scenerio in my mind, they could have done it unintentionally or it could be a play.
As for the sacrifice, no i dont think it was a play from the beginning. Hell, for all i know, they didnt even know you were going to push them in front of a bus. Maybe it just so happened to be that way.
What i was saying os that with suspicion on you, if you get pynched, it buys them credibility as town, if they get lynched, it buys you credibility as town
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EPT
