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On May 16 2014 09:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay, the reason why I said the yell0w thing is because of this. I had no idea which one of you it is, but yell0w was my top town read. If you were town, Eden, and yell0w pointed you out as his number one scum, epishade would have kept yellow alive, because he knew he would go on you, and therefore he could pass off as town, and get you ml. However, yell0w died, which points to you being mafia anyway.
Also, tbh, I forgotten days are 48 hours and not 24 hours until someone pointed it out, so you may think that my defense is too defensive for right now, but I told you why I am getting defensive. Because i am town, and we need to find the actual mafia here.
I already looked at this before.
Case about Yellow getting shot. + Show Spoiler +
Eden's been pushing for Yellow the whole game, save for a tiny bit where he thought Yellow might have been town. Yellow got shot during the night, as I'm sure Bunny made it clear that she thought Yellow was town. I also felt that Yellow was town, so there was little chance Yellow would be lynched. Here are the scenarios for me.
1.) Eden shot Yellow, as Yellow was sure to vote for him had he survived. Bunny would have jumped on that vote just as well, as she's been suspecting Eden for much of the game too.
2.) Bunny shot Yellow, as nobody would have voted for Yellow because he was read as town for much of the game. The only person that didn't read him as town was Eden, who would have likely voted for him in this scenario had Yellow survived. Yellow would have then voted on Eden, and Bunny would have jumped on the Eden vote.
OR
3.) Bunny shot Yellow to frame Eden in the first scenario, had any of us thought of it and recognized it.
I wish there were more of a use in analyzing Yellow's death, but it really doesn't help, as I think both scenarios 1 and 3 are equally likely.
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On May 16 2014 09:40 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2014 09:28 Epishade wrote:
@Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not. Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose. Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying. There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense.
I don't know why ya'll are going back and forth on me being parity cop, when I'm not parity cop.
Is there a point to this?
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On May 16 2014 09:42 Epishade wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2014 09:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay, the reason why I said the yell0w thing is because of this. I had no idea which one of you it is, but yell0w was my top town read. If you were town, Eden, and yell0w pointed you out as his number one scum, epishade would have kept yellow alive, because he knew he would go on you, and therefore he could pass off as town, and get you ml. However, yell0w died, which points to you being mafia anyway.
Also, tbh, I forgotten days are 48 hours and not 24 hours until someone pointed it out, so you may think that my defense is too defensive for right now, but I told you why I am getting defensive. Because i am town, and we need to find the actual mafia here. I already looked at this before. Show nested quote +Case about Yellow getting shot. + Show Spoiler +
Eden's been pushing for Yellow the whole game, save for a tiny bit where he thought Yellow might have been town. Yellow got shot during the night, as I'm sure Bunny made it clear that she thought Yellow was town. I also felt that Yellow was town, so there was little chance Yellow would be lynched. Here are the scenarios for me.
1.) Eden shot Yellow, as Yellow was sure to vote for him had he survived. Bunny would have jumped on that vote just as well, as she's been suspecting Eden for much of the game too.
2.) Bunny shot Yellow, as nobody would have voted for Yellow because he was read as town for much of the game. The only person that didn't read him as town was Eden, who would have likely voted for him in this scenario had Yellow survived. Yellow would have then voted on Eden, and Bunny would have jumped on the Eden vote.
OR
3.) Bunny shot Yellow to frame Eden in the first scenario, had any of us thought of it and recognized it.
I wish there were more of a use in analyzing Yellow's death, but it really doesn't help, as I think both scenarios 1 and 3 are equally likely.
Yes, well I agree with scenerio 1. It's a good scenerio. So are 2 and 3, but Im not mafia so thats null.
Just because you read it before, does not mean I cannot bring it up again. What is your point?
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So it's obvious I'm not getting anywhere with ya'll on this. I'm going to take a few hours break to get my mind together (before I ended up being completely BM) and reread the forum to see if I can find anything that helps prove I am town. I suggest each of you do the same.
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On May 16 2014 09:43 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2014 09:40 Eden1892 wrote:On May 16 2014 09:28 Epishade wrote:
@Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not. Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose. Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying. There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense. I don't know why ya'll are going back and forth on me being parity cop, when I'm not parity cop. Is there a point to this?
My reasoning was that if Eden asked us whether either of us were parity cops, and one of us said yes, he'd believe them and lynch the other person, regardless of actual alignment. I thought he was asking us as a trap at first, to see if either of us would claim, just because I thought it really unlikely for any of us to actually be parity cops and that if we did claim it would be like a trap, making us look scummy.
Say you did claim, Bunny. Now Eden before said he'd believe them if they had claimed. The problem is that it is unfalsifiable. You can't prove your parity cop claim to us, yet Eden would be willing to vote for the other party if parity cop would be able to give sound reasoning for each step they took in this game.
There's no way that parity cop could actually do that though! His response here is unsatisfactory for me.
On May 16 2014 09:40 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2014 09:28 Epishade wrote:
@Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not. Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose. Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying. There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense.
"She'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose."
Hell, I could do that too, if I had claimed parity cop. It might take a while, but I'd be sure to tie up any loose ends to make sure that all of my scans made sense. All my votes would match up and everything and you wouldn't be able to tell any difference.
On May 16 2014 09:07 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2014 08:49 Epishade wrote:Ok, question for Eden though about asking about Parity cop. On May 15 2014 17:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Nah I was just asking because I thought for sure there was a parity cop in the game and I wanted to save myself some time. I'd have believed either of you claiming it. Looks like we don't have one though.
Erm, why would you have believed either of us claiming it if we had? Wouldn't that just mean you don't really care which one of us gets lynched? Say Bunny said that she was cop. Does that mean you'd believe her and just vote for me? I don't mean that if she just threw out there that she was the parity cop I'd go "okay, I believe this 100%, lynch Epishade gg." She'd have to show how she breadcrumbed her scans, acted in accordance with her scan data, etc. But if the claim generally checked out then yes, even despite how innocent you've seemed this game, I'd have voted to kill you. Think of it as me asking for roleclaims at LYLO (which where I'm from is standard operating procedure if people haven't claimed yet). I just focused on the parity cop 'cause again, with a godfather and miller in the game it's reasonable to expect there to be one. Moot point anyway since no one claimed a PR.
And, just because of that, Eden would be willing to lynch the other person. But you can falsely make a claim "check out". From my point of view, it looks like Eden would have been fine lynching the person who hadn't claimed, despite his alignment. The person that had claimed could make up a bunch of lies just to ensure they wouldn't get lynched, and then Eden would have an easier time lynching the person that didn't claim.
I got a lot of thinking to do now. Unvoting you for now. I'm back to undecided.
##Unvote: 27ninjabunnies
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I don't get where you're coming from on this at all, Epishade. That's not what I said. I was sure there was a parity cop in the game given the godfather and miller flips, and so I started by asking if either of you were the parity cop. Yes, someone could hypothetically have set themselves up to be able to fake claim parity cop on the final day, but you're really underestimating how difficult it would be to actually do this.
It's a pointless hypothetical anyway since no one claimed parity cop. All the data points to you being town and bunnies being mafia. That's what my vote is built on and why it's currently staying on bunnies.
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Sigh, shit. Idk what to think. Maybe I was reading a bit too much into that hypothetical. I know Bunny has been fighting really hard for us not to vote for her, and it's gonna make me feel sad voting for her after all of this if she really is town.
Neither of you feel like mafia! But Bunny has more evidence against her as far as I can tell. It's not much, but it's more than Eden has as far as I can tell.
I'm still thinking it over.
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Okay. I'm back. Thanks Epishade.
So epishade willing to take his vote off a reconsider things makes me think he is more town than eden.
So I'm pretty sure I'm keeping my vote where it is at, but I will be posting more.
I'm going to go through the filter on Eden, and see if there is anything I can find, I'll post in the morning.
Right now, im off to bed, have an 8 hour drive tomorrow, but I'll be posting from my phone.
If either f you have any questions, ask away.
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I'm still thinking things through, but Bunny's panic reminded me of Light Yagami from Death Note when he was locked up and decided to give up possession of his Book.
He's all like, "I CAN'T BE THE KILLER, THIS IS CRAZY, I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!"
Then Bunny's all like, "I CAN'T BE THE MAFIA, THIS IS CRAZY, WHY AM I BEING PUSHED, I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!"
^^
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On May 16 2014 12:08 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So epishade willing to take his vote off a reconsider things makes me think he is more town than eden.
So I'm pretty sure I'm keeping my vote where it is at, but I will be posting more.
I'm going to go through the filter on Eden, and see if there is anything I can find, I'll post in the morning.
This isn't really sound logic, I'm sure all of us are constantly considering and reconsidering things. The votes being where they are doesn't really matter.
And a reminder here, you said this earlier:
On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So, after reading through the filter of Eden, I actually like him. and that's scary. And I was gonna say this:Even though you are from Louisiana, sorry bud, but you are mafia. And here is why.- but I can't find any good reasons for why he is mafia.
Obviously you can change your mind about this, but I expect you to explain what changed if you reread the filter and decide I'm not town. If you can't do this to my satisfaction then there's no way my vote's moving.
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So Epishade, I've never seen death note, so I'm not sure as to take that as a compliment or insult. However, I did do something. I portrayed town the entire game. I pushed where I felt like town needed to look, I questioned those whom I thought were scummy, and also questioned town for their reads, and I lynched who I thought was mafia and needed to be lynched. I asked you each for cases on both me, and the other person in order to get reads. Even if my posts lacked in later days, I was still questioning those around me on their reads. I have been doing town things, BECAUSE I AM TOWN.
And yes, it is sound logic. The fact that epishade is willing to take his vote off of me and reconsider you as a possibility speaks volume for his alignment. If he was mafia there, he could easily just push for a mislynch on me, much like you are doing at this moment.
And yes, I'm reading through your filter now (and updating all this from my phone, so it might take a bit longer to type everything I need to say.) I wish I knew exactly how much time we had so I can prove I'm not mafia, and you are.
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No, it doesn't, it just speaks to the data. We know that the last mafia has been active in town discussion, so we know the quiet mafia we already caught wouldn't openly discredit their teammate, because the whole point of having a mafia frontman involved in the town is to be able to steer discussion in a particular direction, and constantly discrediting your frontman hinders his ability to do this. dravernor and dfs continually scumread and suspected Epishade, so we know Epishade isn't the frontman, and thus is town. The choice is therefore pretty clear from my point of view. I would expect Epishade to be the one to be rethinking things the most, because while I think the data does speak more clearly to me being town than you, I acknowledge it's not clear-cut like it is with Epishade.
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fixing first sentence for clarity
** No, Epishade's relative willingness to move his vote compared to me doesn't speak to either of our alignments, it just speaks to the data.
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I'm not saying it speaks to our alignments! I'm saying it speaks to his alignment. And i have discussed why. Also , while I think epishade is town here, just because dravernor and dfs read him as constantly scummy means nothing. Mafia can easily bus their partners. We all voted off drav and dfs.. Which means whoever is mafia out of you and epishade (im leaning towards you) bussed both of their partners! But yes, the "data" as you say speaks more to epishade being town than mafia. As for me being mafia over you, i have to disagree. I dont see how im more mafia than you are.
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So if eden is mafia here, he made himself quite the independent mafia. Day one he was super active. The only thing i have reserved about his day 1 play is that his votes were all over the place, some people read him as scummy, me included, for the random place of his votes. Another point in his behalf is that he did place a vote on dfs that day. Even though it was super early in the game, hence why i think he is playing the independent mafia angle this game.
Even after i recended off of yell0w, eden wanted to go super hard on him for awhile. I find that a bit iffy, but then again tamburini wanted to as well, and he flipped town.
I'll post more in a bit. Really hard to do this from a phone
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Yes, mafia will sometimes bus their partners, and in this case we know for a fact mafia did bus their partners. But not all busing is the same; busing isn't always beneficial and often it's detrimental. Clearly since all three of us have been pretty townie for the whole game, busing served a big benefit -- the last mafia looked very pro-town heading into the final day.
I don't see where there's a similar benefit to dravernor and dfs constantly scumreading their frontman. The whole point of having a mafia player that talks a lot and tries to steer the town's direction is to be successful in steering it. Having two people who are constantly saying "nope this guy is definitely mafia don't listen to him" is a huge thorn in the frontman's side, especially in a game with only 13 players, because if any of the town players think the frontman is playing weirdly on top of the teammates suspecting him, the frontman has no chance of steering the town anywhere and the whole purpose of having a frontman is defeated.
So no, I think it makes much more sense that Epishade is town and the mafia were throwing dirt at him than it does that you're town and the mafia were intentionally sabotaging their own attempts to steer discussion just to win 3p LYLO (which is the only realistic explanation for how dravernor and dfs could have acted the way they did and Epishade could be scum).
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Vote (slave) count:
Eden1892 (1): 27ninjabunnies
Epishade (0): 27ninjabunnies
27ninjabunnies (1): Eden1892, Epishade
Not voting (1): Epishade
Currently, 27ninjabunnies is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Friday, May 16 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
Voting is mandatory!
+ Show Spoiler [Vote counter log] +VOTE: Eden1892 voted 27ninjabunnies ( post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies voted Epishade ( post) VOTE: Epishade voted 27ninjabunnies ( post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies unvoted Epishade ( post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies voted Eden (Eden1892) ( post) VOTE: Epishade unvoted 27ninjabunnies ( post)
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Oh I totally agree. Bussing is a terrible play, unless there is logic behind it, or whoever mafia is thinks they can really clutch the win. So yes, here, it worked because a mislynch is being pushed on me by the mafia. But you already knew that, didn't you?
I said in my post that epishade is most likely town here, so stop twisting my words here. I was considering the possibility that mafia could have majorly scumread their partner for these reasons 1) if their partner was to get lynched, they would gain credibility, 2) if they were to get lynched, their partner would gain credibility..
But i think its you. Both of us were slightly scum read by both mafia, and you were highly suspected by mafia towards the end of their reads. I know this put suspicion on me, since i was scum read at the beginning and town read by the end, but it could easily be a play by you that you told them to start suspecting you to throw suspicions off of you when you bussed the hell out of them both! You are nowhere new to this game, so it could easily be a play made by you.
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Great! We have a time now! And im going to be freaking driving in the last 4 hours of the day. Fml.
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So if yall have any questions ask now. And then ill give my final defense before i have to drive. Sucks i have to do it that way but eh.
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EPT
