Currently, mtamburini is set to be lynched. Deadline is Thursday, May 01 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory!
I can't tell who the wagons for today are since the votes are scattered. I think it'll be mtamburini and Sweetfrost. I want mtamburini obviously. Sweetfrost I can live with -- he's suspicious for sure, I just think mtamburini is the serial killer and needs to go today. But I'm more curious about something else from this count...
ashwtini, ritoky, Sweetfrost, sqrt, mtamburini dravernor: Why aren't you guys advocating for your preferred lynch choice? Nothing is off the table right now, but you're all sitting on outliers without making a concerted effort to get them killed.
On May 02 2014 02:58 Amiko wrote: @Eden If tamburini is the serial killer, he still has to play as a vigilante. If mtamburini doesn't shoot at yell0w, his play is strongly inconsistent since he has basically tunnelled yell0w the whole game. His best chance at passing as vig is shooting yell0w. If he shoots someone else and claims WIFOM then it is very suspicious (well... if he kills a mafia that isn't yell0w, that's not so bad).
While mtamburini hasn't stated straight out that he will kill yell0w, I think that's the only reasonable person he can be referring to with his target with 85% certainty comment. For one, I don't think it would refer to anyone other than who he is voting for. Even if it did, it would be pretty awful to have that much confidence in someone as scum and not bring the person up as a lynch candidate.
On the contrary, look at how he talked about his kill in the "reveal" post:
On May 01 2014 06:53 mtamburini wrote: Gonna be completely honest, all this reading gives me a headache I dont read this much for school. And to be hoenst I prob wont finish and I will read later again,.Im tired and hungry and Im just gonna claim my role. Im Bird Jesus and Ive got a target to shoot tonight right now but I will finish reading to find more connections to this person and/or more behavior I may have missed from everyone else.
I like tunneling its fun and you cant tell a lot about a person when you do so along with everyone else in the game. Im like 85% certain on this person and if I do mis shoot, well I will retract town leader position and stick my tail between my legs and sit in the corner and think about what I have done.
"I've got a target to shoot, but I'll finish reading for more connections." "I'm 85% certain on this person and if I do mis-shoot I'll retract town leader position and go to the timeout corner."
Then he immediately afterward posts:
On May 01 2014 06:55 mtamburini wrote: Oh and a little more content on Yell0w that I didnt bring up before , he mentioned something about him having a coach and that he would just ask his coach for advice to be towny is such WIFOM and not game related.
He's clearly not afraid to call Yell0w by name and talk directly about him. Why not tell us you're gonna shoot him?
On May 01 2014 07:18 mtamburini wrote: Its common practice in the video mafia games that I play in the Vigilante claims and lets everyone know that they will be shooting in case they die in the night and 2 kills happen instead of 1 so there is no confusion the next day ( we usually play with 2 kp for mafia until there is 2 of them left with no flips).
So you'd think that a guy so bent on clarity and openness of information with his claim would tell us upfront, right? But he isn't. He's pointedly choosing not to tell us.
If he wants to shoot Yell0w, why did he repeatedly choose to say "a target" / "this person" and explicitly choose not to name his target? This kind of distancing language brings less, not more, clarity to the game state, and it's employed by liars who are uncomfortable with owning their statements.
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And as a side-question, where the hell is he now? I would have expected a vigilante to check back in and argue for his innocence.
On May 01 2014 19:44 ahswtini wrote: Ok I'm voting for mysterymeat, his posts so far have essentially been meaningless. A lot of one-liners, spam and dumb hashtags. What sticks out to me is how he always talks about what he doesn't like
I just don't like this feeling of accusing people in the beginning based off of some joke claim that he is mafia.
Exept for tamburini, i just don't like the fact that imo, with soo little information that he was trying to pocket bunny that hard.
Yet never mentioning what he would like to see or happen. This negative-only attitude reads to me as typical scum behaviour. On top of that, he's banned so he's not going to be useful for the next couple of days. Yes, it looks rather suspicious that my only case is against someone that can't defend themselves, but this is honestly the only thing that's standing out to me so far. I don't really follow the other arguments that are being thrown around in this thread.
Since he's banned for the vote today, will his vote stay on mtamburini?
I just want to reiterate my suspicions of MysteryMeat1. Yes he's banned and can't defend himself. Yes he's said that he doesn't have much to say on day one and will be more active after the first night of kills. People seem to be letting his useless posts slide, yet I'm getting fingers pointed at me.
I can see the case for sweetfrost, I have nothing of my own to add to that and so I don't want to just jump onto that vote. The votes ARE really dangerously spread out and it would be easy for the Mafia team to stack onto someone innocent to kill them. That said, if we forced their hand to vote in such a way, it could also make it easier to narrow down the list of suspects.
I like this. Even when he's under suspicion, he's talking about his suspicions. Although I disagree with lynching Meat, the fact that he's saying this seems townie.
How? He said outright a couple posts up that he found no one suspicious and he's settling on a guy who's literally unable to defend himself at all due to a ban. How is that setting off your townie alarm?
On May 02 2014 03:24 Amiko wrote: @Eden: Since mtamburini is apparently in the thread, if he promises to shoot yell0w do you still want to kill him?
Are we gonna lynch him afterward? Because this doesn't prove anything about his alignment either.
mtamburini: Please confirm for me that you'll shoot Yell0w tonight if we don't lynch you. Let's make this hypothetical actually matter here while I ponder it some more.
Well, with good reason, we have two hours left and I'm strongly considering switching off. But you're right, my focus is too narrow. Scum:
- I would say Sweetfrost except for the initial push he made on Yell0w. Can't see them being an item. Can't see them both being town, though, and he's not exactly contributing. I'd be fine with a Sweetfrost lynch in isolation, it's just the interaction with Yell0w is throwing me off. - dravernor hasn't done anything since yesterday. This is a problem. He's on an outlier with no significant case posted for his vote. This is a problem. - ashwtini we've been over, no suspects + really weak vote + no effort to get his target lynched = ezpzscummyskweezy - Yell0w
If mtamburini doesn't give me an assurance that he's shooting Yell0w or another scumread I have listed then I'm not moving my vote. I still think he's a serial killer and needs to go, and that the only reason we're even talking about another lynch is to grant him a stay of execution (a) in case we're wrong and (b) while it benefits us (i.e. shooting a mafia).
sqrt's play style seems significantly different from last game, but all of the major changes -- more aggressive questioning and pursuit of suspects, greater activity, a heightened sense of urgency in trying to find the mafia -- are positive. I don't really see the sqrt case right now.
Couple of caveats: - I haven't looked all that closely at him yet. I don't typically dig deep into people who are obvtown to me (cf. RolandJarvis in Newbie LIV) and sqrt's play so far has been doing all the right townie things. I have him on my list of "will reread filters for" but he's low on it. - I've only seen sqrt as the doctor. No scum priors so meta analysis is limited. But I think this supports the idea that he's town, because it means his change in mentality this game is the result of not feeling the need to hide as a power role.
regarding your point on tambo shooting Yell0w, the fact that he explicitly continues to hide his kill is really making me think he's not shooting Yell0w. We can talk all day about how it's "obvious" that that's what he's doing, but if it's obvious to us that's what he's doing, it's obvious to the mafia as well, which means there really is no reason for him to hide it. Sorry, not buying it, he gets my vote.
On May 02 2014 06:32 Amiko wrote: @Eden: 1) Why does a SK enter thread the way mtamburini did?
2) Do you think SK is more likely to take veteran-power or scan immunity?
I don't know why he entered the thread the way he did. I tried to incorporate that in my analysis when I was drafting it, but I can't explain it for any given alignment of his. It's just such a stupid play as the vigilante that I can't process how that could be it. At least as the serial killer the play makes sense, even if the execution is sloppy. I think the execution of his posts ("the way he entered the thread") is null because it doesn't appear to be advancing any agenda, and the direction behind his posts implicates him more strongly as serial killer than anything else.
In general I think a serial killer is more likely to take veteran-power over scan immunity in a game with a parity cop, but I'm not sure how applicable that is to this scenario, because I don't think tambo would be talking about the cop scanning him at all if he hadn't already taken scan immunity. The whole bit about the parity cop kinda seemed to me like he was trying to bait a scan knowing he'd chosen scan immunity already.
I think his whole "town leader" shtick should be completely ignored because regardless of whether or not he's declaring himself town leader, he hasn't done a thing to lead the town. It's like that kid everyone knew in elementary school that always wanted to be team captain on the playground because he wanted to be a captain. I'd be more inclined to agree with you that a serial killer wouldn't put himself in the spotlight by trying to lead town if tambo had actually made a concerted effort at any point to lead town. But he hasn't, so I don't think it's worth factoring into this.
Is that what you meant referencing Cavalinho's behavior in an earlier post?
And I'm actually kinda going the other way. Sweetfrost has no town motivation not to vote in self-defense -- if he's town he knows this would be a mislynch, he doesn't know that mtamborini would be, therefore he should switch. I'm not sure what his mafia motivation would be either, though. I don't think it means anything in and of itself.
I don't think this is a bad lynch except for the fact that it means mtamborini isn't dying. Amiko, you're sure you won't switch?
Assuming mtamborini isn't mafia (which I think is safe, shout at me if you don't), the two lynch candidates were not members of the mafia. Things to look at:
- Outliers, outliers, outliers. Sweetfrost was lynched with 4 votes out of 13. That's barely 30% of the total number of players in this game. The alternative wagon was mtamburini with 3 votes. Between them that's under half the players. And we know the mafia had no particular incentive to favor one lynch over the other, so being on an outlier, away from the main conversation, fits. Specifically we need to look at people who didn't make strong cases and/or didn't push strongly for them.
- Interactions. Not just Sweetfrost's suspects, though those should be looked at, but how did he interact with people and more importantly how did other people react to him?
Outliers from Group II: - dravernor - mtamburini - Sweetfrost - dfs - ahswtini - ritoky
dravernor didn't do anything to try to get people to vote for Epishade, but I understand he's having internet access and time issues. He literally didn't post for 48 hours after he voted Epishade. I'm not taking him off the list of suspects here but it's too hard to tell right now whether or not he's mafia parking on an outlier or whether he's just being strangled by internet access problems.
mtamburini, as I previously observed a full two days ago now, hasn't been scumhunting and didn't develop a real case against Yell0w. I could maybe find it in my heart to look at him less negatively if he had, after being called out for not scumhunting or making a case, cleaned up his act and worked harder on making his case. Reading through his filter since he acknowledged my post against him, he made exactly one reference to Yell0w since, and that was only to declare him as the target he would shoot tonight. I don't see him being town-motivated here; even if you want to shoot Yell0w tonight, why aren't you making your vote count, and why aren't you trying to find other scum? I think his focus is obvious, he's the serial killer and he's preoccupied with keeping his story straight instead of scumhunting.
Sweetfrost flipped town.
dfs doesn't post much at all, but his style is reminding me of RolandJarvis's from Newbie LIV. It's significantly less thorough, but it's also nothing that I find particularly suspicious right now. And to be fair, sqrt *might* have been a viable wagon if the votes were even a little different. But I don't really see where dfs did much at the end to create that wagon. (cf. me trying to recruit people to kill mtamburini) I need to see more from him because what he HAS said is fine, but he hasn't said enough and I don't feel he tried hard enough to get his preferred candidate lynched.
ahswtini voted MysteryMeat1 because his posts didn't have a lot of content to them, which he felt was scummy. I kinda see the logic to it, but I'm a little confused why he said he "has no scumreads" literally the post before he declares Meat scummy. My main problem is that he says he "can see the case for Sweetfrost [...] and so [he doesn't] want to just jump onto that vote." He then says, next sentence, that the "votes ARE dangerously spread out." He says this while actively contributing to the spread. I'm sure someone's going to say that's too dummy to be scummy / mafia would never be this blatant / etc. but I'm going with the straightforward answer here, he's mafia.
ritoky fits as a possible partner of ahswtini despite voting for him. Why? Because he didn't make any effort to get ahswtini lynched. But his other posts seem to be trying to figure things out, and don't seem to be especially scum-motivated. I'd like ritoky to explain why he didn't work very hard to get people to kill ahswtini if he thought ahswtini is scum, and we'll go from there. This action moves him back to null because while everything he posted before then sounds good, his actions wrt voting don't look good, and I think that in the end you're going to catch scum not by whether their words seem townie or scummy but rather by how well their actions line up with what they're saying. ritoky did argue against both lynches, but he didn't argue in favor of his. If he's mafia, then knowing neither lynch candidate is mafia, he looks good objecting to both while parking his vote on a suspicious teammate.
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I'm running out of time with this post, but there's two suspects (ahswtini and ritoky) if I die tonight. Tomorrow I'll work on cutting into the people on the major wagons and teasing out more possible suspects and interactions.
Side note: I'm really sorry for being gone for the entire night. I do believe in night talking as town, I just got sidelined by a really busy day today. Hopefully subsequent days won't be as hectic and I won't have to worry about RL getting in the way. I hope that makes up for it!
On May 03 2014 07:40 Yell0w wrote: But really you ask me why I'm alive and then you claim you were roleblocked? Why would you ask if you already knew?
This. mtamburini's play continues to make less than no sense to me.
On May 03 2014 07:43 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I think it was mafia sided roleblocker. I think I'm the only one who strongly believes yellow is town, and I'm not roleblocker.
Why would a mafsided roleblocker stop mtamburini from killing a town player?
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