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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
Is anybody around? | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
On March 26 2014 13:03 OnceKing wrote: Cavalinho, what do you think of the fact that Robik seems to have an awful lot of reads so quickly? You are going to love me OnceKing. I have reads on almost everybody. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
sqrtofneg1 Valenius Lord Tolkien Starting with Lord Tolkien. He made a very early 'serious' vote. I think it was serious. On March 26 2014 08:40 Lord Tolkien wrote: technically we're both right. My renewed OK scum sense is tingling. #unvote sqrtofneg1 # vote OnceKing When I read it the first time I thought he was saying his scum sense was OK. Now I realize OK = OnceKing and I guess OnceKing was scum in a previous game? Anyways this failed vote was followed by OnceKing posting his Lynch All Lurkers proposal, and then Lord Tolkien fixed his vote and commented on the proposal... [B]On March 26 2014 08:50 Lord Tolkien wrote: Given the past mafia game I play with you guys in, the lurkers were all mafia, I agree with that. No reason to let them lurk for free. There's a bit of a disconnect between thinking lynch all lurkers is a good proposal and thinking OnceKing is scum when OnceKing is the one proposing lynch all lurkers. The vote and the proposal are both happening at the same time. So I have Lord Tolkien at the bottom of this set. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
He's fearless, he's driving discussion, he's challenging people. People he challenges: Cavalinho IAmRobik Pixalated Valenius, Cavalinho, LT, RJ, sqrt The fearless really came out in the "truth or dare" with Cavalinho. I also think the Lynch all Lurkers proposal comes from a town mindset. 1. It is likely to help the town. I'd guess that lynching from my "no opinion / weak lean / under the radar" set would have better results than lynching my strongest scum read today. How good could my scum read be today? But the under the radar guy today will probably be under the radar tomorrow and it won't get easier to lynch him. 2. It predictably drew negative attention. I think scum would instinctively know that having ideas is trouble. So who posts a proposal that could help the town but not the poster? Only somebody who thought it was worth it... town. I don't put a ton of weight on it but that's where I stand on Lynch all Lurkers. --- OnceKing's relationship with IAmRobik is worth examining. Robik has told us several times that he's the best. Initiating an attack on such a player would be very dangerous for a hypothetical scum OnceKing. What if Robik becomes a leader? What if he actually is the best? What scum wants that kind of attention? But OnceKing has come at Robik which makes OnceKing less likely to be scum. It would require OnceKing to be making an ego play or for them to be scum / scum. --- On the flip side, I do wish OnceKing offered conclusions of his own about more players. I know how he feels about Robik, but nobody else. So I can't quite lock him in as 100% to be town yet. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
A word about how I've been working: I made written notes about 'interesting' posts. Who said it and what they said. I should have written my snap reactions but I incorrectly thought I would remember those. At the same time I had a rankings list of how town people are. Pixalated was on the very town side of things. Now I check my notes to post about him and I wonder how in the world I thought that. A really odd disconnect. I guess this is his best post: On March 26 2014 13:08 Pixalated wrote: I also don't see why you think Val is town just because he asked onceking to clarify his shit. It was a pretty useless question, it's easy to understand what onceking wanted to achieve with that post - create the atmosphere that no one can lurk and has to post. But instead all he does is make a rather long post asking about potential situations blabla... When I think that it's pretty clear - if we have a solid read we lynch it, if not we lynch a lurker. Seems like he's trying to be helpful without actually being helpful. He gets the same credit for challenging Robik. Also some credit for having a coherent thought about a read. But on a second read my takeaway was I agree with a lot of what Pixalated said but so what? He didn't really do anything or take a stand right or wrong. So I give Pixalated a no opinion. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
IAmRobik has told us all he's amazing and he's town. I guess the mafia will tell us with their KP tonight if they agree with both of those. He's playing the game so I won't worry about it further today. I do wish there was somebody else here to chat with. Even mafia! | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
Cavalinho first pinged me during the OnceKing Lynch all Lurkers discussion. The timeline: 16:40 OnceKing posts LynchAllLurkers 19:18 Cavalinho enters thread 20:15 Robik reacts negatively to LAL 20:16 Cavalinho echos Robik On March 26 2014 12:16 Cavalinho wrote: I am also curious about aforementioned shit The timing is a problem. If Cavalinho had a problem with LAL why didn't he just post it? What was his problem with it anyways? He can't really say: On March 26 2014 12:44 Cavalinho wrote: OK is...Off. Like, his post is just...weird. I don't really know how to describe it, but it's like he says a thing about policy and it just kinda comes out of nowhere. On another topic, why is it that you're asking me specifically? Is it because you already knew that I was weirded out by his post? So why was it a problem again? Cavalinho is firmly on defense and struggling to say anything about anything: On March 26 2014 12:54 Cavalinho wrote: OK is on. >.> In all seriousness, I don't really have any thoughts on sqrt and Val other than the fact that they're both null. Sqrt has been goofing off and Val has said stuff but none of it really feels relevant yet. and here suddenly he knows why it's a problem... because Robik explained it: On March 26 2014 13:01 Cavalinho wrote: I'm actually going to agree with Robik. Why would you even bother talking about policy lynching when we're barely one step out of RVS? Now that I think about it, I'm gonna go check our last game to see if OK did the same weird shit he's doing right now. When I say struggling... he doesn't have his own thoughts about anything posted. His posts are reactions, deflections, and echoing the thoughts of others. On March 26 2014 13:12 Cavalinho wrote: He has outed two reads. I think that hardly constitutes "many reads." They sound somewhat stretched, but I don't think I'm ready to commit to interrogating anyone on that line of thinking when we have several players that haven't even posted yet. This post has a significant logic fail. When fewer players have posted having "many reads" makes less sense than when more players have posted. By this point I think Cavalinho is scum and his plan is to echo Robik. How could he get in trouble saying what Robik says? Note this line implies Robik is town. On March 26 2014 13:14 Cavalinho wrote: No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question. OnceKing feels so pure here and Cavalinho is on defense, afraid. On March 26 2014 15:17 Cavalinho wrote: And also because I got caught up playing Epicmafia at the same time. Looking over OK's last accusatory post, it looks quite a bit like what he was doing last game. He's pointing fingers and doing things that are generally pretty pro town. His start was weird, but I don't really have any real reason to think he's mafia right now, especially after all those explanations and actions. Seems townie, getting information and generally being one of those obvious town players. While we're on that topic, I can say that Robik's townreads tend to come early and often, sometimes on what can be perceived to be weird reasoning. That last game we all played together (speaking specifically to you, OK) he townread me because I OMGUS'd him like 20 minutes in or something. He wound up being such a strong player that he was shot N1. Look back on that and ask yourself if he's acting the same way as he did then, because from what I've seen, he makes his mind up pretty quickly and even had his vote wind up on scum. He seems townie thus far. Also, I'm going to #Unvote because we're actually playing the game and solving the mystery. and now he walks back everything. Everybody is town. People are coming at him and he doesn't call them scum. Well, until he gets voted. Then Eden is scum and it's a battle to the death. Cavalinho has been tentative, defensive, echoing and then he got a case from eden and a vote and he switched to aggressive defense. I think Cavalinho is scum. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
The way he went after Rubik felt sincere and had logic. Then those two talked it out and he reversed himself. Again, it made sense with the posts. For a scum to make a case and then throw it away would be so wasteful. Especially since OnceKing is voting Rubik. Eden's evolution on Cavalinho was so organic. His post about Cavalinho "arguably even worse" was almost an afterthought when he was on the Rubik warpath but it led him to investigate further. Eden is willing to take initiative on topics. He has opinions on everybody who has posted enough to be read. I feel very strongly about Eden being town. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
I'm done for tonight. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
I also read day 1 of the game LII. My snap reactions: I had trouble following the Lord Tolkien "trap" incident. This is obviously a big deal so I'll look at it in some detail. My gut says Lord Tolkien is town. He has taken the heat in stride and is able to talk about multiple topics in detail simultaneously. He had one throw away line at the end of a post that reads very town to me when he said keep the wagons to {Lord Tolkien, Lord Tolkien's top scum read, Cavalinho - the other big wagon}. People reacting with "why would he do that as mafia, what does that make the other 2?": I think the simpler explanation is he thinks having defined wagons early is important for the town. In the previously low content set, Valenius appeared and left me with good feelings. I know his big post got some negative reviews. The other previously low content poster sqrtofneg1 failed to make any impression as I read linearly. That's a bad sign. After I iso I'll see if it's careless reading by me or scummyness by him. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
Similar to this game, Cavalinho was a day 1 wagon. In fact he was the day 1 lynch. That's about where the similarities end. Notice how in that game, Cavalinho has confident opinions about lots of topics from the beginning to the end. He has constructive discussions. When the pressure comes he keeps his cool for a long time, but then he eventually snaps and goes hard at his attacker with OMGUS. Except he immediately backs off, clears his attacker, and puts his vote on his preferred wagon and pushes it hard. He announces he's unwilling to change for self-preservation. Contrast to this game: It's like Cavalinho is only talking to eden. The confidence is gone. His focus has gone from wide to narrow. I think (need to confirm) his reads changed in convenient ways. It's like he's a totally different player! So yeah, I still think Cavalinho is mafia and Cabalinho is the best lynch today. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
I strongly, strongly disagree with this logic. Another contrast with his previous game is Cavalinho had defenders on day 1 of the previous game and has no defenders this game. theDragoon (a mafia) had a strong town read on Cavalinho. When a town is wagoned it's so hard for at least one mafia to resist defending them. They get credibility from being right that they can spend later. "Don't catch a falling knife" I want you to imagine you are a mafia this game and Cavalinho is your partner. Eden and Roland are gunning for Cavalinho. They make substantial cases. They have lots of people calling them town. Cavalinho has a good chance of being lynched. You are going to defend Cavalinho? Really? Like say you think his posts make him town? I don't believe that*. If you are mafia and Cavalinho is your partner you can't defend him. Certainly not when he was the only wagon. * Not that it's physically impossible for that to happen, just that it's very improbable and the assumption of the posts I'm arguing against is that mafia would most likely defend their partner when he's a runaway day 1 wagon. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
His conversation with himself at the start of the game showed him to be a high volume, in the moment player. One who would create reactions and interact a lot. That style of town play is more writing than reading and doesn't take a lot of time. But the promise hasn't been met. His posting since has been sporadic. He has one long post and otherwise doesn't know what to say. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
On March 28 2014 01:37 Cavalinho wrote: I'm okay with either him or Roland, because Roland jumped on what could be considered a "safe" wagon and isn't letting up despite all evidence to the contrary. If you think I'm mafia, and you want people to vote for me, nothing is more convincing than putting your own vote on me. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
I've read the trap section again and I understand it now. I also finished reading the previous game. There he had a post during night 3 that seemed like he was trying to trap the wolves with WIFOM and things he didn't believe. It worked, they killed him. The point of that is it shows he wants to make plays like traps while town, so it's not automatically incriminating. Then I'm buying his defense. Call it tone, I think he is town. | ||
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RolandJarvis
65 Posts
On February 18 2014 08:17 Cavalinho wrote: For the record, ##unvote Amiko ##vote N1k0 This is my actual scumread right now. Amiko is trying to make good posts, but I think he's an idiot and he's barking up the wrong tree. On February 18 2014 08:42 Cavalinho wrote: And I'm not changing my vote. I'm staying on N1k0 until the end of today. On February 18 2014 08:43 Cavalinho wrote: Because we've had that solid conversation earlier about trying to plan around all of the blatant OMGUSing going on. This is a good sign. I'm going to say it again: all of the people involved in the major discussions right now are probably town, and there are several players sitting back and doing nothing. Now. It's all about survival. He actually gives his top scumread in the second post. Can you find it? Look how different that is. His focus, his priority is begging for an unvote. On March 28 2014 00:53 Cavalinho wrote: Okay, I'm probably not going to be around at deadline. Can we possibly coalesce on someone soon that preferably isn't me? Like...I don't see what makes me a "caught mafia." At all. On March 28 2014 01:37 Cavalinho wrote: I think out of the four people that I'm concerned about right now, (You, Val, Roland, LT) Tolkein would be the one I would be concerned with voting off the most. I'm okay with either him or Roland, because Roland jumped on what could be considered a "safe" wagon and isn't letting up despite all evidence to the contrary. Though for the record, you strike me as town for now. So I guess disregard the fact that I'm concerned with you. (Also, yes, Eden is a pain in the ass when he tunnels. I can absolutely see that. Also, unvote me pls kthx.) What evidence to the contrary? Challenge: Would anybody like to say they think Cavalinho is town based on his posts in this game. Not based on your read of another player, wagon dynamics, or anything else. Just his posts. | ||
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