I'm a cop you idiot mafia 2

On March 02 2014 01:19 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Artanis' epic list of reads
1. Sn0_Man - 100% Town
Hurr.
2. Xatalos - 85% Town
Reason 1: WIFOM during the night
Could be faked, but it seems like something a cop would think of and he was the first to think about it. I thought it was smart.

Reason 2: Claimed Green on Sn0
Sn0 was a potential mislynch, and in this setup mafia only needs one mislynch for a victory. He was the easiest person to push, yet Xata came out with a green claim. This could be an attempt to get cred, but it seems more likely that he's just town. Also a 25% chance of getting busted instantly if Sn0 CCs cop. One point to note though is that he did try to claim credit for it.


Reason 3: Weird wording after his claim.

Would scum post hopefully? They would know that another claim is going to happen.

Reason 4: He's actively tried to figure out the game at many points.
He's explained himself a lot and everything he's said after the claim makes sense.

A few things bother me though. His play before the end of N0 had a few holes. It felt like he was following thread sentiment a lot back then. His reasoning followed after mine, most of the time, and his suspicions on BH were ill-founded, but given scum shot BH there's no real reason to suspect him for it. I'm quite good with town Xatalos.

3. JarJarDrinks - 80% Town
Reasons: He has given a lot of stuff to the thread. He called Sn0 out for good reasons and formulated a plan for the doc. There are a few holes in his plan though, like with both players checking the same player; it seems like scum could simply shoot the player that they would check.

Another thing that has sparked my interest in hindsight is how his entire plan that he talked about revolved around the optimal play for if the cop died on N0. The cop didn't die on N0 and now JJD has only 2 pages of filter despite being quite active at the start of the game. It worries me. He's been in a great position, getting lots of cred and then proceeds to not use it for anything. Town has the motivation of wanting to aid town, so they should post. Scum want to not raise suspicion for why they're still alive, so if they're in a great position they'll probably try to alleviate some of the credit. It could also be demotivation if scum is in a poor situation, which would be the case if Sylencia is mafia and the counterclaim went poorly. Cop didn't get shot on N0 either, so it's a situation I see as real.

Problem with that is that JJD instantly said that Xatalos is 99% town. If he's scum with Sylencia, why would he do that? It could be an attempt to get into a better position in the endgame, but I'll have to give JJD townie points if Xatalos is indeed the town cop, and if Xatalos is the scum cop JJD shouldn't be demotivated as scum because they're in a great spot.
In the end, everything JJD has said seems to be in town's favour but there's feels about him. I've got me feels.

4. Oatsmaster - 20% Town
Oats and Sylencia are very strongly connected in that Oats has hard defended Sylencia quite a bit. This is what he's been doing for most of the day. Oats being scum with Sylencia is therefore at the forefront of everyone's mind, which means Oats' play would be bad if he were scum with Sylencia. Doesn't mean that it isn't the case though, and if they're both scum they're in a terrible position. The speed with which Oats believes Sylencia's claim is not something I see as alignment indicative. Oats has strong gut reads and doesn't let go of them. Something I believe Prom told me about reading Oats though is that he often sheeps his town reads as town which he doesn't when he's scum. Oats has not really done that this game. He's taken the opposition and ran with it.

Other strange things in his filter are how he ragged on Xatalos for not voting for Sylencia because he was confirmed scum to him. It should be obvious to everyone that Sylencia is confirmed scum to Xatalos and the other way around. Not voting doesn't mean anything in that regard, you're already making your voice explicit. He's also set a "trap" which he then sprung, a short while after he says there's no reason to hide what you think. It's not a direct contradiction but it shows two conflicting thought processes. Why couldn't people hide their own thought process as a trap? It doesn't really make sense.
His reasoning on targets is poor and he's tunneling pretty hard. Calls Xata scum for having a more prepared claim when both scum and town cop should be prepared to claim. Also said that scum profit from the game going on longer despite town having two blue roles and scum having nothing to counter it other than claims.

He has been pressuring people though, and that puts him ahead of Sylencia.

5. Sylencia - 15% Town
There is nothing town about Sylencia's filter other than his claim. He hasn't done anything in the game other than claim cop, and when he did he just followed thread sentiment. His cop claim was on someone who already got checked green so there's little risk there. One point though; he could've claimed green on someone else and then there wouldn't have been any confirmed townies. Problem with this is that he set himself up on D1 to check sn0, so he didn't leave much choice there. One thing to note on that thought process is that if he was scum, he would be more likely to leave himself open to check multiple targets if he were going to claim cop.

His recent rage is not really alignment indicative to me. He hasn't really been trying to prove that Xatalos is scum. For some reason Oats took that away from him. He looks quite bad.