EPTWrote some stuff then deleted it because it's mostly inconclusive and not helpful to anyone really.
Chyz, what do you make of thread activity right now?
Cultured Mini Mafia - Page 15
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Wrote some stuff then deleted it because it's mostly inconclusive and not helpful to anyone really. Chyz, what do you make of thread activity right now? | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 05 2014 13:49 Holyflare wrote: Wave what do YOU make of any of the current events? There was a whole thing on geript and then a whole flip to ange and then you just came back to ask ange and chyz random bs questions? My question to Ange is slightly BS. The one to Chyz isn't. I'm looking at votes atm, something I should have done days ago. I don't really care much about what's going on in thread right now. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 05 2014 13:54 Holyflare wrote: Please divulge them to meee. I want to wait for an answer from Chyz honestly. I've got some stuff coming though. Reading all sorts of stuff hardcore (procrastinating studyiinnngggg) | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I think this may have to happen at this point. I'm impatient so I'm not going to wait for Chyz. Got good feels on him, plus that vote analysis where he is on geript with Toad doesn't make sense if they're both scum. Scum just DON'T do that. EVER. Was reading through some dead player filters, past games, a whole mismush of stuff. Nothing is incredibly conclusive but I'm trying to fill up the 'feels' meter. Rayn wanted gumshoe to die if there's a busser and I can't decide if I'd kill him 2nd or leave him for LYLO if geript goes down and is town. And I mean, that's really what we're looking at right now, bussing to some degree. As far as busses go the simplest case and most obvious is probably Geript followed by Ange. Normally scum spread their votes out as best they can throughout a day and at the end of a day, but obviously the close race between suki/Mocsta didn't allow suki to stay where she was. This leaves Geript, Chyz, or one person on the suki wagon. At this point I think I'm willing to say HF wins if he's scum, not looking at him, period. Chyz I just took a long look at, I'm ok with him. Wish he did more, but I'm fine. It comes down to the type of bus we're looking at here between the three leftovers, and one must ask themselves, which is easiest and most likely for scum to pull? 1) Tunnelvote a single person all day, keep your vote there even when asked to move, even when it would save your GF. -What does this accomplish for scum? Obvious towncred for when Toad does flip, the 'spread out' voting pattern that scum crave. The 'I am right' angle he's been playing up all game thanks to his 'towncred' on Toad has been extremely over-the-top, and while possible from a town geript in all likelihood, it only makes it seem like he planned on using this to ride out the game from the very start of when Toad/geript went at each other. It's a tough case, no doubt about it, but of all the three bussing options, this one was by far the safest because unless shenannies went down somehow (and since I wasn't around they were unlikely), Geript could hang on to towncred while gambling 2) Sheep townreads fairly early on in wagon formation. What does this accomplish for scum? The 'scum votesplit,' and........? Gumshoe was under absolutely zero obligation to bus at this point as the lynch targets I had 'set up' weren't even necessarily clearly outlined UNTIL people like gumshoe started moving. He obviously had said he would vote suki so maybe one could posit he was stuck and had to follow through, but he had no obligation to do it WHEN HE DID. 3) Sheep townreads very late in wagon formation, don't move when asked, and afk. What does this accomplish for scum? Again the 'scum votesplit,' and even more so, done in an extremely safe way (though not as safe as Geript's option). If Ange is scum she absolves herself of all responsibility by leaving (whether she actually had to for real or not doesn't matter). Same risk as above for Geript but a weaker version of it since she doesn't get to lord over her pushing anyone all day when suki flips. She simply gets to say she 'had the chance to switch off but didn't.' She takes the same gamble in hoping Mocsta still goes down and she can look good, but it seems less likely or effective here because the gamble wasn't necessarily as potent here since she could have played a little riskier and afked on Mocsta instead.... This actually makes me think---does this belie a guilty/scum mindset in Ange in that she didn't want to be seen as the person who afked on a towny target at the end of the day, and so hoped to offset it by nobly placing herself on the right wagon? I'm aware a lot of this stuff has been said before, but I'm putting it into KISS format (for myself, but maybe for others too) as I think it's important to remember that despite some unorthodox scumplay seemingly happening this game, there are still places where Occam's Razor can be applied. I'm pretty sure that if I'm (and a LOT of other people who gave Chyz townreads throughout the game) are right, then this game is already over. We lynch one of Geript/Ange today and the other tomorrow and win. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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If you're town: If I don't change my mind and push for a switch to Ange today, your death has a purpose. Yes you played a good game, but your methodology kinda ruined a lot of what good you did for the other people in the game, including me. I'm also aware if you're town that you're trying extremely hard to fix it (or if scum, trying extremely hard to....?) but there's just so many glaring issues with your attitude and play that are really difficult to let slide. I think it might be comparable to BH's 'scumslip' in Les Mafia if that makes sense. A lot of people wanted to believe he was town and worked really hard to get there but they couldn't. It seems that's the same issue I'm having. I can see almost everything you do from either perspective so you can see from my last post I break it down to the simple basics in voting analysis. If you're town I know that the town side of what you've done was the right stuff, and that will provide us with a great deal of information, and will allow us to likely lock down Ange solidly as the final scum. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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I think I want to hear more from Ange herself on the matter (including the answer to my question) and possibly gumshoe. | ||
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It actually heavily favours geript being town as well (though he brought it up himself so bleeaaahhhhh). Doesn't say anything about HF, me, Ange, or Chyz though, but I'm happy to eliminate gumshoe for a bunch of reasons today (even if I was the only one who ever seriously considered him). Yeah I may switch to Ange. We'll see where tomorrow takes us if no one else is around tonight. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 05 2014 15:04 geript wrote: I want to make this clear. I'm very disappointed with you wave and I 100% understand your reasoning. Like yes, my death has a purpose because apparently you guys are just donkeys and have no clue how to read obvious and mod confirmed town. Like I have played what is probably my best town game to date. Like the fact that you're riding this dick so hard and deep makes me so unsure of which of you is actually the scum fucker. Like I want to say it's Ange, but you and HF should 100% have town reads on me. Like he's tunneled as fuck on me and I really struggle calling HF scum because the interaction is like the towniest tunneled town on town shitfest. Like I'm literally on a couch at work laughing about how you're saying it's essentially a lynch for information and you're both saying that I need to come up with who the last scum is and why. Like it's so silly. If you're town find scum your damn self, don't expect me to do your work for you so that you can lynch me and then sheep (or maybe just sheep me) when none of you fuckers would sheep me day 1 and called all of my reasons awful, stupid, and townread the shit out of Toad. On top of it, you guys are playing like you want to drag oats master to Lylo. Like no, it's a clear policy lynch situation and you fools are trying to lynch mod confirmed town. Like if Aquanim doesn't instantly submit it for worst lynch of 2014 I'll be all up in his asscrack over it. So fucking funny. See this? Doesn't help. I don't actually give two shits about your righteous anger, worst lynch, or you laughing your ass off. And where did I say you need to come up with who the last scum is? I've said it's either you or Ange hands down. I'm just debating as to who I'd rather lynch first. Keep this shit up and I'll lynch you for spite too. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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but you and HF should 100% have town reads on me. I HATE this. It sounds so much like arrogant-marv at his worst and I absolutely hate that. No reasoning as to why we should have you 100% as town, you just make dumb assumptions. Also the modconfirmed town thing? Do you truly think that if you're the only one in a game who believes this then it's everybody else who is in the wrong? Now like I said before, either you want to talk productively or you don't. If this is going to be your posting for the rest of the game then just leave and don't bother coming back. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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##unvote ##Vote: Ange777 Come on ladies. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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For him to play like this with a whole bunch of mislynches to go just seems so damn unlikely. Stupid YOLOvote aside. Ange's latest posts are wholly unsatisfying. Got her to finally come back and say something and she finds the need to try to justify a geript vote with reasoning that's been pushed 100,000 times before----it just reads to me like, 'oh I'm back and posting I'd better try to contribute in some formulaic way to get people off my ass.' Furthermore, now that I think of it I wonder if Ange's reiterated point makes geript more likely to be town. Yes he was stubborn and stuck on his scumread to the detriment of everything else that day, but surely he'd be worried as scum about being inconsistent in terms of not switching over his vote to suki like he said? Ange's turnaround of my case against me is interesting because I honestly didn't even consider it from anyone else's POV. I can understand her concerns I suppose, except for the fact that I'm NEVER around at deadline considering the timing and have said as such multiple times. I don't hold that against her specifically, but the way in which that post and the end of the earlier one is worded....I hate this argument when other people use it but it all sounds so forced. Read those posts and tell me that they don't look like she's thinking 'Well I gotta look as though I'm thinking critically here instead of going through the motions...oo! Here's an inconsistency in Wave's case! Let's draw the bare minimum of attention to it while falling back on geript along with everyone else! I gave reasoning just before so it should be fine.' | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 06 2014 04:09 Holyflare wrote: This is the main point above all else. Wave could have made an excuse to not sheep me. He even asked me what to do. That would be weird as hell. Ange isn't an ice cold killer and could easily make excuses to be on mocsta. You are the only one that couldn't have switched to save. Did you read my earlier post on the votes? Ange definitely could have done that, same as Geript. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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Ugh mebbe we do lynch geript fuuuuuuuck | ||
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I'm not going to be around right at deadline.... | ||
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WaveofShadow
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Vivax? Chyz? gumshoe? | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 06 2014 04:35 Holyflare wrote: Explain to me why ange could vote suki over mocsta? Is it just for the afk town cred? It's in my post. I do it order of likelihood, assuming a bus. The thing to remember is, if a bus of scum in general happened there had to have been some premeditation. I show in that post which busses are most likely and why. In ange's case it's afk towncred but also similar to Geript's potential reasoning that 'it looks super townie if I don't do what the obvious scumplay would be.' In Geript's case, it's stick on Toad to the detriment of suki. In ange's case, it's vote suki and afk, and just before afking when asked to vote mocsta, you say no. Read the post HF. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 06 2014 04:38 Vivax wrote: I'm here, I've said all I had to say about Ange7. No shit there aren't many points you can really attack about her, and that's what should get your alarm light going. Eh. I'm not going to vote her because of her activity (which is probably >50% of that reasoning Vivax). I know at least from my play that my activity is completely not alignment indicative and so I prefer to give others the benefit of the doubt in that regard. I will honour her request by not lynching her because she hasn't been around. Did you read my vote/bus analysis Vivax? | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 06 2014 04:41 Vivax wrote: "Hey I posted 2 pages of filter that look super polished now try to make a case on me" Did you play with sciberbia, WoS? i was with him on scum and he won the game for us, simply cause he said what people wanted to hear, cause his posts looked so clean, so thought out, he wasn't posting regularly, he only came in when it mattered to do that. Ok that's an interesting point. I've only played with scib a couple times but that does ring a bell. | ||
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WaveofShadow
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On March 06 2014 04:41 geript wrote: No rayn sheeped, but he sheeped because he saw the logic and was pretty sure you were right. I'm guessing he thought you were town too, but I really don't care about that. But I can 100% say with certainty that Rayn didn't just sheep; like that's not rayn. Please PLEASE stop pretending you know people. | ||
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