EPT[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot - Page 102
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
This was a hell of a fun game. I can't wait to play with you guys again. ^^ | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
- really random opening post that actually pinged 2 mafia - Really stupid king stuff - WAGON OF JUSTICE - jay likening me to being king of rohan with regards to suki ah so good | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On February 18 2014 13:22 suki wrote: Prome doesn't tell me what he thinks when he coaches  If he thought you were town he wouldn't have told me.And yeah, I thought you would be carefree, like a majestic buck running through the sunny bright glades, that exact picture. So your play this game being more low key and survival-oriented really stuck out to me. This. Coaches shouldn't be playing the game for those they coach, sure I knew that you (jay) were town but your play deserved pressure since only a deep meta read really cleared you. Your claim was wildly scummy, your attitude was bad and in general you were pretty lost. Being a scum read can often push a townie back into the game and allow them to clear themselves, alternatively being pressured can out a scum player because of slipping up and flailing wildly. I never gave suki my reads and no coach should ever give their player their reads. The point is to teach new players how to play, not to play for them, similarly I try never to post except to ask questions and respond to them. My job is to make suki play the best she can but she has to be working towards that herself. I cannot be the driving force behind her play. You also over valued your role (IMO) and used it poorly. Getting a check on koshi was pretty shit. Use both checks to their fullest, if you'd checked Alak/hope/aqua/LM n1 you would have had two useful checks in late game instead of one. On February 18 2014 12:42 jaybrundage wrote: there is some amazing stuff in here PromethelaxPerson was signed in when posted 02-14-2014 03:07 AM ET (US) I am your personal cheerleader. Suki suki she's our (wo)man If she can't do it no one can Woooo Wooo [i did not sport well in school, I have no idea what cheerleaders actually say] Glad you enjoyed it. I had fun coaching suki and generally goofed around a but during her lynch. | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On February 18 2014 13:25 Balla24 wrote: LMAO. In all fairness I think Jonny's case on you was completely ridiculous last game. Like I can understand feeling weird about how townie you were playing, but pushing it as your day1 lynch seems unreasonable. Actually this game I felt really off about Aquanim the entire time but it ended up never really materializing. lol that sounds familiar, every game I've played with Thrawn he's said something along those lines... and he seriously tried to lynch me on occasion, too  | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
I didn't really care about how accurate my accusation was I just thought you were sheeping and wanted to post an awesome sheep picture No apologies because I found it completely hilarious. Especially later when Balla called me out by reposting that picture against me. I laughed so hard :D | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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AxleGreaser
Australia1154 Posts
I absolutely really don't like absolute statements in Mafia, or stats + Show Spoiler [existing Balla23 Stats theory] + On February 07 2014 06:59 Balla24 wrote: Balla's absolutely idiotic PROBABILITY MAFIA Here's what I think is going on this game. Using your last 3 games, I have calculated everybody on the playerlist's chances of rolling mafia this game using basic math. I did not use games that you replaced into, as there is a possibility of it being likelier to replace into one alignment rather than the other, nor did I use ongoing games unless you have already flipped and thus everybody knows your alignment already and could not affect the game. I did use information from the last game, since it totally counts, unless you replaced into the game. Let's start: For each player, I found their last 3 games, and in each of those games I calculated the probability for each alignment and wrote down your alignment in that game. The probably incorrect mathematical theory is within the spoiler below: + Show Spoiler [The Theory] + In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. + Show Spoiler + Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Based on that theory: + Show Spoiler + Aquanim: T(.75) * T(.75) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: T(.8) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: T(.76) * M(.28) * T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: T(.72) * M(.25) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.25) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: M(.28) * T(.75)* T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: T(.76) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: M(.27) * T(.8) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me: T(.72) * M(.23) * M(.22) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.02% chance to roll mafia The conclusions: The town Koshi and I are mathematically literally and figuratively confirmed town. You cannot get more confirmed town than this except with mod-confirmation, regardless of how incredibly anti-town this whole thing is. Koshi with the 1.39% chance to roll mafia. Me with the 1.02% chance to roll mafia. Fight me on this, I dare you! Questionable players Oats Suki Jaybrundage LoneMeow Hopeless Sidesprang This is roughly in order of most to least town. None of you had a chance to post yet, so you all have had weak appearances. I'm okay with them right now since they clearly don't have a very high chance to roll mafia, and it is also obvious that others are probably way more mafia so they are likely to be town. Mafia Aquanim Alakaslam Jonnylaw I will go into a little more detail here: With 12.6%, 12.2% and 11.64% chance to roll mafia respectively. These guys are PROBABLY mafia. This game is solved. QED. ##Vote Aquanim + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: huehueuhehuehuehueuheuheuhuhe this is all so useless because in reality everybody who has rolled less times as mafia also has a much higher chance to roll town and basically all I did was prove that every game was independent from each other huehuehueuheuheuheuhehuehueuhe... like jonny has a 39% chance to roll town town town town whereas I have a a 3% chance to roll town mafia mafia town and this is all for the lulz huehuehueuheuhehueuheuheuh and also i probably should have used some time of conditional probability formulas like bayern's theorem but i was too lazy to re-learn that so i just made stuff up   extending on Balla24's already stellar work, and extrapolating it into setup speculation. Aquanim: 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me(ed: Balla24): 1.02% chance to roll mafia probability of no players in the game rolling mafia = product of the probabilities that each player is not mafia prod(1-Pi) = 51.86% probability of all players in the game rolling mafia 0.000000000000098% (hence we can discount that possibility as absurd) While those are interesting results. Total average expected value of the number of players in the game who are mafia. 0.6273. operating on the expectation that there would be for balance 3 scum in a setup such as this that leaves 2.3227 scum unaccounted for. Conclusion: Thus there is a 232.27% chance that people not playing the game are scum! When you cant find scum playing the game lynch people not playing the game, they are even more likely to be scum than the scummiest person playing the game. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On February 18 2014 14:06 Promethelax wrote: One time Austin claimed to be an electric sheep and that his role forced him to never be the first vote on someone. Austin is great. Oh god the horrors of that game. Never mention it again! | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On February 18 2014 14:08 AxleGreaser wrote: The bit of the game that tickled my fancy has gone unremarked, so I will. I absolutely really don't like absolute statements in Mafia, or stats + Show Spoiler [existing Balla23 Stats theory] + On February 07 2014 06:59 Balla24 wrote: Balla's absolutely idiotic PROBABILITY MAFIA Here's what I think is going on this game. Using your last 3 games, I have calculated everybody on the playerlist's chances of rolling mafia this game using basic math. I did not use games that you replaced into, as there is a possibility of it being likelier to replace into one alignment rather than the other, nor did I use ongoing games unless you have already flipped and thus everybody knows your alignment already and could not affect the game. I did use information from the last game, since it totally counts, unless you replaced into the game. Let's start: For each player, I found their last 3 games, and in each of those games I calculated the probability for each alignment and wrote down your alignment in that game. The probably incorrect mathematical theory is within the spoiler below: + Show Spoiler [The Theory] + In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. + Show Spoiler + Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Based on that theory: + Show Spoiler + Aquanim: T(.75) * T(.75) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: T(.8) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: T(.76) * M(.28) * T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: T(.72) * M(.25) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.25) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: M(.28) * T(.75)* T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: T(.76) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: M(.27) * T(.8) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me: T(.72) * M(.23) * M(.22) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.02% chance to roll mafia The conclusions: The town Koshi and I are mathematically literally and figuratively confirmed town. You cannot get more confirmed town than this except with mod-confirmation, regardless of how incredibly anti-town this whole thing is. Koshi with the 1.39% chance to roll mafia. Me with the 1.02% chance to roll mafia. Fight me on this, I dare you! Questionable players Oats Suki Jaybrundage LoneMeow Hopeless Sidesprang This is roughly in order of most to least town. None of you had a chance to post yet, so you all have had weak appearances. I'm okay with them right now since they clearly don't have a very high chance to roll mafia, and it is also obvious that others are probably way more mafia so they are likely to be town. Mafia Aquanim Alakaslam Jonnylaw I will go into a little more detail here: With 12.6%, 12.2% and 11.64% chance to roll mafia respectively. These guys are PROBABLY mafia. This game is solved. QED. ##Vote Aquanim + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: huehueuhehuehuehueuheuheuhuhe this is all so useless because in reality everybody who has rolled less times as mafia also has a much higher chance to roll town and basically all I did was prove that every game was independent from each other huehuehueuheuheuheuhehuehueuhe... like jonny has a 39% chance to roll town town town town whereas I have a a 3% chance to roll town mafia mafia town and this is all for the lulz huehuehueuheuhehueuheuheuh and also i probably should have used some time of conditional probability formulas like bayern's theorem but i was too lazy to re-learn that so i just made stuff up extending on Balla24's already stellar work, and extrapolating it into setup speculation. Aquanim: 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me(ed: Balla24): 1.02% chance to roll mafia probability of no players in the game rolling mafia = product of the probabilities that each player is not mafia prod(1-Pi) = 51.86% probability of all players in the game rolling mafia 0.000000000000098% (hence we can discount that possibility as absurd) While those are interesting results. Total average expected value of the number of players in the game who are mafia. 0.6273. operating on the expectation that there would be for balance 3 scum in a setup such as this that leaves 2.3227 scum unaccounted for. Conclusion: Thus there is a 232.27% chance that people not playing the game are scum! When you cant find scum playing the game lynch people not playing the game, they are even more likely to be scum than the scummiest person playing the game. What about the hosts though? Hosts are probably scum bro. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
For example: While I had a 1.02% chance to roll TMMM, it also follows that I had a 3.03% or something chance to roll TMMT. So its really amazing that I even rolled town OR mafia! I loved skewing that into exactly what I wanted. Which was Jonny being scum as the outcome. It took me awhile to figure out that the best way to make it so that Jonny is scum is to show the chances of rolling mafia rather than show the chances to roll town. While making this, I was really upset that Jonny had something like a 40% chance to roll a TTTT situation, whereas I had 3.03% to roll a TMMT situation so i just flipped it! :D | ||
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AxleGreaser
Australia1154 Posts
On February 18 2014 14:20 Promethelax wrote: What about the hosts though? Hosts are probably scum bro. According to my analysis, Hosts are only likely to be scum if they are not playing the game. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On February 18 2014 14:06 Promethelax wrote: One time Austin claimed to be an electric sheep and that his role forced him to never be the first vote on someone. Austin is great. Sheesh. Get your facts straight. He claimed this. On October 10 2012 00:12 austinmcc wrote: I'm The SSheep, Sub-Human Test Subject #47. (The extra "S" stands for "Extra Science!") Every night, I get released from my pen into the Aperture Science facility, and wander into another player's location at random. If I wander into a rat den, side effects from studies performed on me allow me to communicate with the rats and learn the identity, role, and alignment of the person located in the rat den that night. If I wander into a portal, I get cloned, rather than just going in one side and coming out the other, because "ssheep and portal exhibit strange interactions." For each time I've been cloned, there's an extra ssheep wandering at night, so I can hit multiple locations. If I wander into a testing chamber prepared by GLaDOS, I die, because my "tiny ssheep brain" cannot withstand the rigors of tests designed for humans. I die outright, even if it's just a clone that walks in there. Also, and maybe this explains a little of my D1, as a ssheep, I'm not know for being a leader. Therefore, if I ever cast the first vote of the day on a player, I may or may not blink out of existence, due to the "Von Heisenstein SSheep/NoSSheep Paradox Effect." P.S. I fell for this fake claim by scum Austin  | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On February 18 2014 15:02 Crossfire99 wrote: Sheesh. Get your facts straight. He claimed this. P.S. I fell for this fake claim by scum Austin Not bad from memory of a game I didn't play a year and a half ago. Weren't you scum in that game too? | ||
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On February 18 2014 15:05 Promethelax wrote: Not bad from memory of a game I didn't play a year and a half ago. Weren't you scum in that game too? Haha yeah you definitely have a good memory. I'm just messing with you. You even made me think that you played in the game for a second cause you remembered that. I was part of the sorta 2nd scum team actual 3rd party team with no true factional kp, just super conditional vig kp (which never got activated and I hold a tremendous grudge agains GreY for that travesty + Show Spoiler + jk jk | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
I know you were town and all suki but.... MISSION COMPLETED!! ACHIVEMENT UNLOCKED | ||
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jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eczhV57.jpg)
