EPTFor me it's between WOS and layabout.
WOS contributes and I basically don't like much of anything he says.
Layabout doesn't contribute, and when he does its mostly shit filling.
Gonna go with layabout. ##vote layabout
Golden Sun: The Lost Age Mafia Djinn Edition - Page 2
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
For me it's between WOS and layabout. WOS contributes and I basically don't like much of anything he says. Layabout doesn't contribute, and when he does its mostly shit filling. Gonna go with layabout. ##vote layabout | ||
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ritoky
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Off to do some work. | ||
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On May 22 2014 15:56 Hapahauli wrote: I really don't know how to say it any better than I have: the guy has a fucking 10 page filter in 24 hours. If you think mafia can do that, you're insane. But then again, I really don't feel like arguing any more since... a) There's no way I'm going to convince someone confirmation biased enough to call the guy "scumelling" over and overa gain. b) Steveling isn't getting lynched. My target of choice is. c) The "oats-whisperer" does not get to lecture me on how to interpret meta cases. From my reading of the thread you were one of the people who switched votes onto Odin for not an outright stated justification in the thread. It seemed to me to be following behind Kush primarily, but even then you did a lot of hedging saying Val was probably a better target. So I have two questions for you if you wouldn't mind obliging me. 1) Can you state clearly why you switched your vote onto Odin? 2) You made a very large deal about geript having confirmation bias blinding him about steveling, so where was that same concern about BH having confirmation bias against Odin in regards to the case he made? (see bolded part and convo above) | ||
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Koshi - Seemed pretty town last phase to me, there were a few people sheeping him, so I could see how he would be targeted...guess I was wrong about the town part. BK - Was pretty null for me, but wasn't this guy a veteran smurfing? And didn't a few people take issue with the fact that he wouldn't admit who he was? Could have been a spite kill for that? Otherwise I don't particularly see a justification MZ - Crap, there goes my top town read. Going to read everything since the day phase post now. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On May 24 2014 07:44 layabout wrote: what kind of approach is this? Hay guys these are my reads on the people that are already dead! No one needs to know this and there is no real reason to post this as town. It does not do anything to further town goals. However reading this makes me think that when ritoky wrote it he was thinking primarily about he would look in the thread when he wrote it instead of what he wants. It doesn't seem like a natural reaction. It looks constructed, fake. Now when your town townread dies and you think that, at what part of your post would you put it? Here it reads like a bullet point not a curse! Typically I would expect this kind of comment at the start of a post since it's your immediate thought on seeing the flips. Ritoky is mafia guys! Well, I think that everyone should have a response to night kills....I don't see what's wrong about that. I think that you can derive things from who was killed. For example I legitimately think BK was killed out of spite by one of the couple people who took umbridge with him not sharing his alias. As for my my MZ read, well my filter isn't very long and you can very quickly finding me calling him my top town early on and the justification for it shortly after. Why it was at the bottom, because I went in sequential order of kills. I think you are just blinded by anger from my vote and reasoning behind my vote yesterday. | ||
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ritoky
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On May 24 2014 07:54 Hapahauli wrote: Ritoky, can you explain your read progression on tambo? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=169#3377 Someone didn't like my reads that I was giving, and how confused I was at the time that I was giving them. So they asked me to take baby steps and read the people I had played with in the newbie game. So I obliged them, and of the people I read tambo was the most scummy at the time. But that was from a sample size of 4 or 5 people. Of all the 32 players tambo wasn't as high up there as others, such as layabout and WOS. I said he got worse, and then I basically forgot about him for a while. His absolute and utter disengagement with the game and complete lack of resistance to a bandwaggon on him....well I just felt like if he had a role (town or scum) he would be more engaged and actually trying to get out of it rather than his lax approach. I ultimately arrived at the thought that it was probably bad VT play, much like I had for a lot of day 1. That said, his doing just enough to get out of the lynch then disappearing bit, well I haven't really made heads or tails of it yet. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
Group 1 - People leaving things to be desired: Tehpoofter - Pretty sure this guy was one of the towniest towns to ever town for a solid 6-8 hrs during D1, and since then he has mostly disappeared. I don't know if it's irl related, or too much reading, or intentional; but from what I understand he has certainly played enough mafia in his days for it to not just be him being overwhelmed by the volume of the thread. While he hasn't done enough of this for me to wash away his shiny town smell. He certainly is leaving things to be desired. 27ninjabunnies - This may sound a bit weird, but if I ignore your first 5 pages of your 9 page filter (the majority of which happened within the first 24 hours of the game starting); then I am highly underwhelmed. There's a lot of OGI irl posts, a lot of "hey catching up posts", and a lot of slight subtle commentary posts. It is clearly present that you are here a lot and reading the thread frequently; and yet you haven't pushed a case very strongly on anyone since the minor effort you put on tamburini. This was certainly not the town bunnies I was ride or die with on day 1 of the last newbie game. Your stock is plummeting for me and you are leaving things to be desired. mtabmburini - You sure are making it hard to not push on you due to policy. Your level of disengagement from the game is astounding. My gut tells me it is because you rolled VT for the 2nd game in a row and are bored, but your play leaves things to be desired. Group 2 - Where are you scooby doo? mysterymeat1/errandor - you're in this game? coulda fooled me. Group 3 - Dem townies Layabout - I voted for you yesterday for lack of contribution, and boy did that make you mad. I stand behind what I said at the time, but since then you have picked it up. All of it has been angry and tunneled on me, which you are wrong about and is a bit of an OMGUS, but I like your response. You've got pluck kiddo, you be one of dem townies. BlueyD - If you can't read that last long post and smell the innocence seeping off of it. I think we speak different languages. I speak 5 languages....so hopefully you don't speak enlgish, japanese, korean, spanish, or portuguese....he one of dem townies. BH/Alakaslam (i think it was him?) - They claimed fairly prominent names from the Golden Sun series openly in the thread, have not been counterclaimed, and were not shot in the night as a result of claiming someone elses role. So until I have reason to disbelieve these claims or mathematical reason to be forced to lynch one in the event that they are lying. They go in the pile with dem townies. Austinmcc/geript - Ya know, these two are probably my reads that have the least raisin. I mostly just enjoy and like most of what they type. They smell like the rest of dem townies. Yell0w - He had a level of lack of self awareness that forced me to read him as town after a little bit during the last newbie game. His lack of awareness about the RNG thing and some of his other posts read much the same to me. So I would consider him one of dem townies for now Group 4 - Pretty much scum Hapahauli - Now I think this one will come as a bit of a shocker to a few, but quite frankly he has had warning signs on him for me for a while. So let us examine, in particular his scum reads currently: On May 24 2014 03:25 Hapahauli wrote: I'm going to use the above votecount to structure my thoughts. By looking at the votes, we can get a better idea about the motivations of certain players, and it can help identify certain mafia tells that might be present in a multi-faction game. I'm dividing posters into 3 categories:
People off of the main wagons: There's a good chance that certain mafia/faction members will want to "blend-in" and "hide", and one very instinctual way of doing that is to avoid the main course of discussion, take "non-controversial" stances, and avoid contributing by pursuing/voting someone who is not being talked about and has very little chance of getting lynched. In this category of players, we have: mtamburini rikoty geript Cephiro Tehpoofter kitaman sqrtofneg1 WaveofShadow I'm going to start with Mafia Reads, move to Null Reads, and then to Townies: Mtamburini + Show Spoiler + Mtamburini's vote looks extremely bad by all accounts. On May 23 2014 03:45 mtamburini wrote: I Vote:: tehpoofter why? No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS harharharhar Tehpoofter had virtually no chance of getting lynched yesterday, and this is the definition of a wasted vote by all accounts. His reasoning for placing his vote where it was is also pretty suspect: why? No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote: I have a lot of reading to catch up on so if I had to found scum based on the first 45 pages of this game I probably couldnt do so. poofter was in my initial scum reads moving towards null. ... On May 23 2014 04:59 mtamburini wrote: tehpoofter uses sarcasm as either allignment but you can usually tell by the tone of his sarcasm what allignement he is. From his initial posts Im reading the sarcasm as more scummy then towny All of this is really strange. The first two quotes can be barely considered reads. The 3rd quote is extremely manufactured and makes very little sense - tambo had never mentioned tehpoofters "sarcasm" all game, and then it shows up in a very mystical and unexplained read (what is the difference between town/mafia sarcasm?). Quote #2 is additionally strange - he voted a read (tehpoofter) that he felt was moving from Scummy to Null. Not only is this really weak, but he did so over Bunnies, who he's been seemingly tunneling most of the game, and has explicitly called her a strong scum-read in earlier posts. His rationale for not voting Bunnies is weak and makes little sense: On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote: ... Im not going to vote on bunnies because I think she might be town and just needs some time to cool off and get her head in gear. ... To understand why this makes so little sense, read this post... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=45#896 ...then read page 3 of his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?user=mtamburini&page=3 He doesn't vote a scumread because he believes that scumread could be town, but then votes tehpoofter (his "scummy moving to null" read) because... man I don't even know. sqrtofneg1 + Show Spoiler + His deadline behavior is pretty strange. After he comes back a couple of hours before lynch deadline, he quickly establishes a town-read on Odin... On May 23 2014 03:03 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Okay, looking at Odin's filter myself, I think he's just a vanilla townie. Scum would try harder to get out of it. As a vanilla townie, he wouldn't care. On May 23 2014 03:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I recommend lynching Val. Odin may seem scum, but I think he's VT. It's a very poorly explained town-read. His point about "Odin not trying to get out of the lynch" doesn't make much sense either, since Odin had stated earlier he'd be gone until the deadline. Futhermore, Odin was under very little pressure at the time he said that. It seems more like he's trying to justify not voting for Odin as opposed to being sincere with his read. Sqrt then pops down a very "clean" vote on Valenius... On May 23 2014 03:12 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Okay, I've played games with both tambo and val, and here's what I've got so far. Valenius's filter from NMM LIV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445959-newbie-mini-mafia-liv?user=Valenius&view=all He was vanilla town. He was much more active in scumhunting, he was much more direct, he was different. Tambo's filter from NMM LV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?user=mtamburini He was vanilla town. The filter is a bit more strange because he claimed vig, but it's more accurate of his play than when he was cop imo. I've concluded that Valenius has been acting more strange, in comparison, rather than Tambo. ##Unvote ##Vote: Valenius ... then POOF! He's gone for the last two hours of shenanigans! Despite having a town read on Odin, he never seems to try and act on it to prevent it. He disappears... then instantly reappears at lynch deadline! This is a really suspicious 2 hours of absence. Another *really* odd thing about his filter is how many town reads he gives out over the course of the game. He gives them out like candy, is seemingly confident in a lot of them, and... yeah. I'm not sure if this is a mafia tell in this particular setup, but it's something that definetely caught my eye on a readthrough. Cephiro + Show Spoiler + Given that Cephiro was AFK for the last half of the day, it's hard for me to get an accurate read on him. However the first half of his day 1 play seems like it would come from some sort of faction. I won't talk much about the contents of his big case. What's more important is that he didn't talk about anything other than his case on bunnies at all. This lines up with the idea of a faction wanting to "hunt" for players, but not necessarily interested in contributing to town discussion. Again, hard to make a complete read on him due to him being AFK for a while, but his play objectively fits pretty well with how I'd think a faction member hunting other faction members would approach this game: find a target, push him/her, and really not contribute to town discussion otherwise. Ritoky + Show Spoiler + Hard to say. His play is pretty short and straightforward. He believed layabout was scum, voted him, and then had to step out: On May 22 2014 19:48 ritoky wrote: Well, I am going to sleep and I am not sure if I will make it back before the deadline. For me it's between WOS and layabout. WOS contributes and I basically don't like much of anything he says. Layabout doesn't contribute, and when he does its mostly shit filling. Gonna go with layabout. ##vote layabout Nothing in his filter that screams his alignment one way or the other. WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler + Well he replaced out. This makes a lot of his lack of interest and activity in the latter half of the game pretty explainable. I wasn't altogether please with his play (especially his stuff on Holyflare), but it's better not to make judgements about an incomplete filter and let his replacement talk some. Geript I believe to be town. Geript is extremely active and emotional this game. His tunnels seem very genuine, and while he ended up on BlazingHand, he definitely was very involved in the chaos and discussion of the day. He's drawn a ton of attention to himself, and really isn't someone I'm concerned about. Tehpoofter I'm less sure about, but I think he's town. He's playing extraordinarily different from his scum-game in You Only Shoot Once, and was fairly active/involved early on. He was afk for the last ~24 hours of the day (not changing his vote or posting at all), which leads me to believe his vote being off of one of the main wagons is a null-tell. Based on his early day behavior, I give him a moderate town read, with the expectation that he continues that in future days. On May 24 2014 04:35 Hapahauli wrote: This post was supposed to be a bit longer, but I'm running out of time until the deadline, and I need to talk to austin apparently. Might be bombing more reads as I go through filters. Yell0w + Show Spoiler + Pretty simple: Votes Odin pretty early in the game in support of the "RNG lynch" thing. On May 21 2014 08:55 Yell0w wrote: Okay so I'm behind an RNG lynch, I understand my idea wouldn't work since people don't want to random their vote and if most don't do it it'll never work, so I'll just vote Odin. I was willing to wait for people to say why they were against it, but nobody gave a good reason not to do it, in my opinion. ##Vote: OdinofPergo 13 hours later, he has scumreads! He very specifically has a STRONG scumread on tamburini and has seemingly a very good reason to vote him right away. On May 22 2014 00:19 Yell0w wrote: ... ritoky: leaning scum, he hasn't posted enough for me to think he isn't, just made big posts to make it seems like he's contributing to town instead of actively participating in the thread like he did last game. tamburini: scum, I didn't like the big post he made, it all seemed like fluff, he was basically just giving his gut reads on people as he was reading the thread, which is pretty much useless to anyone but him. He's been very different from the game I played with him where he was town. ... But he doesn't vote tamburini... or anyone. Despite being active ~5 hours before lynch deadline. He comes back in the thread, makes several posts that provide very little content, then is gone. I realize that Yell0w has been considered lynchbait in the past, but goddamn voting RNG over a very clear scumread (tambo) is a pretty glaring scumtell. Alakaslam + Show Spoiler + I put Alakaslam next because he's in an identical situation to Yell0w: voted to RNG lynch Odin and pretty much stuck with it. The problem is, I can't read Alakaslam for shit and my mind melts when I read his filter. I'm biased to interpret everything he says as genuine, so yeah. I'd need some second opinions here. Kushm4sta (Shoot him!) + Show Spoiler + On May 23 2014 05:50 kushm4sta wrote: to be fair i switched to odin purely for the lolz of bh retardation On May 23 2014 05:50 kushm4sta wrote: i switched before bh made his shit case Posted after the lynch. People who vote for reasons *other* than lynching mafia are mafia themselves and should die. I really don't think this is simply kush being kush either. When he's town, he trolls the shit out of people but atleast has town objectives in his heart. There's also some weird stuff in his filter. When marv posts that "all vets who sheeped the Odin lynch are suspicious", Kush INSTANTLY re-activates and defends himself: On May 23 2014 05:49 kushm4sta wrote: like me? btw i think wos requesting replacement means he is town ... posting this, followed by two other posts (quoted above). He's just very angry this game in general. I don't get any sense of playful trolling that I've seen in other of Kush's less-active town games. Valenius + Show Spoiler + I've said all that I need to about him really. There are several posts in my filter about him. tl;dr, he's shitposting and +1'ing people a lot. It feels like mafia having a hard time contributing. He has two analysis pieces, one that I covered earlier... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=118#2356 ... and another that's pretty simply an OMGUS case against me. He feels like mafia trying to hide. His contributions have been weak, and good portion of his filter are pointless one-liners. That being said, I think there are other priorities over him right now. It is possible that he's just a newbie with severe self-confidence issues, and I think I have stronger reads on Tambo, Yell0w, and kush. If you ignore kush, who I believe is a bit of a different case, especially now. The rest of his scum and leaning scum reads are on people with 2 page to 4 page filters at best and tend to be newer players. And most of his town reads throughout the game are on people who have very large filters and have played a lot of games. To me he reads like scum trying to push MLs on people who will offer not as much resistance or who he feels he can get a policy lynch on. Outside of that, he has very inconsistent criticism. As I pointed out earlier, he criticized geript for having confirmation bias on Steveling, yet he didn't criticize BH for having confirmation bias on Odin; and his reason? Because he says BH's case was good. So confirmation bias doesn't apply when you think the person has a good case? Then later he is critical of people who did sudden vote swaps late in the phase, especially those without reason. Yet his hypocrisy is on full display as he is one of the people who did this. Hell, his filter even has a nice "I told you so" post after he switched off of Val onto Odin, even after Val posted something that was pretty much garbage late in the phase that wouldn't have made me switch votes. Lastly, this is just a gut read, but I get the read that a lot of his posts are sending out feelers. He doesn't ever go all-in or really push. He sends out feelers to see if there's support. Then later he pushes if there is or drops it if there is not. For example I am a neutral read in his reads above, but as soon as layabout starts getting angry at me, Hapa is behind him giving him a little boost. He is pretty much scum in my mind. jampidampi - I have found him strange for a while. He was very supportive of 27ninjabunnies after what I thought was a poor defense at the time. He even was supportive of her strange comment of having absolute non-lynches day 1. He also found my former #1 town MZ scummy for finding bunnies odd for that comment. Austin's case on him just further drives me down the path that I think he is pretty much scum. Group 5 - I can't read this guy Sqrtofneg1 - Yo, I got this guy completely wrong last game, and he is acting completely different this game. And I am not confident in my read again. I just think I can't read this guy Group 6 - No strong opinions Everyone Else | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On May 25 2014 08:51 marvellosity wrote: ritoky - a question if I may. Why is Hapa particularly suspicious because he finds people with low filter length scummy, when the large majority of the game is doing the same thing? All the main wagons/suspicions are generally on low filter-length people, so why is Hapa doing so particularly egregious, but not anyone else? Could you elaborate on this at all? Some more examples with quotes? Well, I think that a lot of the main wagons/suspicions are not very good as you can see by my reads. And I think the people pushing on them deserve to be examined in regards to if you feel they are just trying to get a ML on someone they perceive to be an easy target or if there is real grounds there. Outside of jampidampi, I personally am not really sold on any of the other low filter count cases. I guess I could be convinced on sqrt, but that's cuz I have no clue about that guy. However the difference is that most people pushed on 1 or 2 of those guys. Hapa pushed on ALL of them. His scum/leaning scum reads above are basically all of those people, and then when one or the other sticks (like with layabout pushing on me) he starts pursuing that one further. It just looks like fishing for an easy ML with a shotgun imo. As for examples with quotes. If you still want those then I will be happy to oblige in about an hour after the 2nd half of the sounders game. | ||
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ritoky
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On May 25 2014 09:24 geript wrote: Ritoky, could you explain where and how your tambo scumread disappeared into Laya and Wave? @Snooglewoogle. How Jampi jumps around seems really towny to me honestly. Like he's jumping around but all of the thoughts are connected in a natural way. Considering the time between the reads, it seems odd but not damning to me. I already did. On May 24 2014 08:03 ritoky wrote: Someone didn't like my reads that I was giving, and how confused I was at the time that I was giving them. So they asked me to take baby steps and read the people I had played with in the newbie game. So I obliged them, and of the people I read tambo was the most scummy at the time. But that was from a sample size of 4 or 5 people. Of all the 32 players tambo wasn't as high up there as others, such as layabout and WOS. I said he got worse, and then I basically forgot about him for a while. His absolute and utter disengagement with the game and complete lack of resistance to a bandwaggon on him....well I just felt like if he had a role (town or scum) he would be more engaged and actually trying to get out of it rather than his lax approach. I ultimately arrived at the thought that it was probably bad VT play, much like I had for a lot of day 1. That said, his doing just enough to get out of the lynch then disappearing bit, well I haven't really made heads or tails of it yet. | ||
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On May 25 2014 09:14 marvellosity wrote: Honestly the more you post the better, so yes I'll take you up on the examples when you have time. No rush ^^ Again when you're ready, could you pick out the suspicions that Hapa made that you don't think are logical or genuine? Because you can disagree with someone's reads but that doesn't mean that person is faking it. With regards to jampidampi, do you take into the account any of the past games/history with him that I talked about recently? Does that affect your read, if not, why? I will start with the jampidampi stuff because it is shorter: does it affect my read? Not really unfortunately. The problem with past games that I wasn't a part of as evidence is that it is really hard for me to connect with them. I have played a lot of mafia outside of TL, and in those games there's a level of emotional connection/investment that isn't there when you read/observe a game that you're not part of. Also, the information you're provided at the start of the game colors your perspective on the game substantially. So basically what I am saying is that I wasn't a part of the game, and while I appreciate the information and it helps in regards to tone and posting style; it won't help with the feelings part of the read because I wasn't emotionally invested in that game at all. This is kinda related to both Hapa and jampidampi, but you said look for things that don't look logical. I guess this may just be a difference in gameplay perspective, but I think often times the people who try to be the absolute most logical all the time tend to be a bit scummier for me. I like to moreso look for things that are odd or don't make a lot of sense, things that are predicated on people having more info than me, and things that just don't feel right. That's how I feel about jampi. Bunnies said "I will never lynch MZ this game", MZ was like "WHAT? thats scummy" which felt genuine and made him my #1 town, and jampi said "You're scummy for finding that scummy MZ", which to me feels just completely weird and that feeling overrules your past game stuff. Call me an emotional dude if you want. So then, what's odd or feels off about Hapa. Well geript was critical of my tambo read and wtf happened to it, and I personally think that Hapa's is even weirder. On May 22 2014 07:02 Hapahauli wrote: Alright finished reading the thread, and my thoughts haven't changed too much. mtamburini's still my lynch of choice today. I've already made some thoughts on her larger quote-bomb post... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=38#745 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=40#787 ...and foolishness has a post on her as well... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=55#1087 Just to add to this though, I found this post which is all sorts of WAT: She quote's ceph's giant case on Bunnies and basically blindly agrees with it. There's no indication in this post that she's actually read the damn thing - it's almost like she looks at the case, sees it's big, and just sheeps it. Furthermore, the bolded comment is incredibly strange, given that yellow flipped town in the game in-question. You'd think she would exhibit more pause after wanting to lynch a townie for similar rationale, but instead she bolsters her suspicions with it... that just makes very little sense from a town perspective. Of all the points against her, I think this is the most compelling. Ritoky/Valenius I've seen these two mentioned as possible scum candidates. Austin's case on Ritoky is somewhat compelling, however I don't think it takes into account the sheer difference between a mini-newbie game and a 32-person monster-spamfest. The wishy-washiness to me could be explained by how intimidating/confusing this thread is to a newer player. Hell I'm having problems keeping track of this myself, and I'm considered a "vet." All and all, I agree that they're playing differently than their town metas have shown in the past, but I think that it could be explained by the difference in gametypes. This is the beginning of it. Then tambo starts to come back and they have some exchanges, all of which it seems like hapa comes out on the negative side of. On May 23 2014 01:13 Hapahauli wrote: Ok I have no idea what you mean by the bolded. Regarding your Day 1 play, one thing that makes me fairly suspicious of you was your entirely different approach to Day 1 in the recently concluded newbie game. In that game, you came out extremely confident with very straightforward pressure/reads. This is in complete contrast to this game, where your approach has reflected your "vague and inconclusive" self-descriptor. Then suddenly after saying a lot of things don't make any sense by tambo and tambo being dodgy at first, suddenly he believes he missed. Not particularly for any reason either. On May 23 2014 01:20 Hapahauli wrote: ##Unvote I'm starting to think I missed on tambo. Going to re-read and re-evaluate. He then goes on valenius primarily on a sheeped read by OnceKing, and says he is 100% the best lynch for the day. But wait! On May 23 2014 03:02 Hapahauli wrote: I'll consider switching to Odin depending on what Valenius comes up with in the next few hours. Can't do much on my phone, but I can and will be reading. Then he votes on Odin. His next post is accusatory toward those who swapped votes at the last moment without any reason. Hypocrisy thy name is Hapa. But this much is off topic from my main point, which is the strangeness of his tambo read. So what did happen to that? On May 24 2014 03:25 Hapahauli wrote: I'm going to use the above votecount to structure my thoughts. By looking at the votes, we can get a better idea about the motivations of certain players, and it can help identify certain mafia tells that might be present in a multi-faction game. I'm dividing posters into 3 categories:
People off of the main wagons: There's a good chance that certain mafia/faction members will want to "blend-in" and "hide", and one very instinctual way of doing that is to avoid the main course of discussion, take "non-controversial" stances, and avoid contributing by pursuing/voting someone who is not being talked about and has very little chance of getting lynched. In this category of players, we have: mtamburini rikoty geript Cephiro Tehpoofter kitaman sqrtofneg1 WaveofShadow I'm going to start with Mafia Reads, move to Null Reads, and then to Townies: Mtamburini + Show Spoiler + Mtamburini's vote looks extremely bad by all accounts. On May 23 2014 03:45 mtamburini wrote: I Vote:: tehpoofter why? No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS harharharhar Tehpoofter had virtually no chance of getting lynched yesterday, and this is the definition of a wasted vote by all accounts. His reasoning for placing his vote where it was is also pretty suspect: why? No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote: I have a lot of reading to catch up on so if I had to found scum based on the first 45 pages of this game I probably couldnt do so. poofter was in my initial scum reads moving towards null. ... On May 23 2014 04:59 mtamburini wrote: tehpoofter uses sarcasm as either allignment but you can usually tell by the tone of his sarcasm what allignement he is. From his initial posts Im reading the sarcasm as more scummy then towny All of this is really strange. The first two quotes can be barely considered reads. The 3rd quote is extremely manufactured and makes very little sense - tambo had never mentioned tehpoofters "sarcasm" all game, and then it shows up in a very mystical and unexplained read (what is the difference between town/mafia sarcasm?). Quote #2 is additionally strange - he voted a read (tehpoofter) that he felt was moving from Scummy to Null. Not only is this really weak, but he did so over Bunnies, who he's been seemingly tunneling most of the game, and has explicitly called her a strong scum-read in earlier posts. His rationale for not voting Bunnies is weak and makes little sense: On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote: ... Im not going to vote on bunnies because I think she might be town and just needs some time to cool off and get her head in gear. ... To understand why this makes so little sense, read this post... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=45#896 ...then read page 3 of his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?user=mtamburini&page=3 He doesn't vote a scumread because he believes that scumread could be town, but then votes tehpoofter (his "scummy moving to null" read) because... man I don't even know. sqrtofneg1 + Show Spoiler + His deadline behavior is pretty strange. After he comes back a couple of hours before lynch deadline, he quickly establishes a town-read on Odin... On May 23 2014 03:03 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Okay, looking at Odin's filter myself, I think he's just a vanilla townie. Scum would try harder to get out of it. As a vanilla townie, he wouldn't care. On May 23 2014 03:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I recommend lynching Val. Odin may seem scum, but I think he's VT. It's a very poorly explained town-read. His point about "Odin not trying to get out of the lynch" doesn't make much sense either, since Odin had stated earlier he'd be gone until the deadline. Futhermore, Odin was under very little pressure at the time he said that. It seems more like he's trying to justify not voting for Odin as opposed to being sincere with his read. Sqrt then pops down a very "clean" vote on Valenius... On May 23 2014 03:12 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Okay, I've played games with both tambo and val, and here's what I've got so far. Valenius's filter from NMM LIV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445959-newbie-mini-mafia-liv?user=Valenius&view=all He was vanilla town. He was much more active in scumhunting, he was much more direct, he was different. Tambo's filter from NMM LV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?user=mtamburini He was vanilla town. The filter is a bit more strange because he claimed vig, but it's more accurate of his play than when he was cop imo. I've concluded that Valenius has been acting more strange, in comparison, rather than Tambo. ##Unvote ##Vote: Valenius ... then POOF! He's gone for the last two hours of shenanigans! Despite having a town read on Odin, he never seems to try and act on it to prevent it. He disappears... then instantly reappears at lynch deadline! This is a really suspicious 2 hours of absence. Another *really* odd thing about his filter is how many town reads he gives out over the course of the game. He gives them out like candy, is seemingly confident in a lot of them, and... yeah. I'm not sure if this is a mafia tell in this particular setup, but it's something that definetely caught my eye on a readthrough. Cephiro + Show Spoiler + Given that Cephiro was AFK for the last half of the day, it's hard for me to get an accurate read on him. However the first half of his day 1 play seems like it would come from some sort of faction. I won't talk much about the contents of his big case. What's more important is that he didn't talk about anything other than his case on bunnies at all. This lines up with the idea of a faction wanting to "hunt" for players, but not necessarily interested in contributing to town discussion. Again, hard to make a complete read on him due to him being AFK for a while, but his play objectively fits pretty well with how I'd think a faction member hunting other faction members would approach this game: find a target, push him/her, and really not contribute to town discussion otherwise. Ritoky + Show Spoiler + Hard to say. His play is pretty short and straightforward. He believed layabout was scum, voted him, and then had to step out: On May 22 2014 19:48 ritoky wrote: Well, I am going to sleep and I am not sure if I will make it back before the deadline. For me it's between WOS and layabout. WOS contributes and I basically don't like much of anything he says. Layabout doesn't contribute, and when he does its mostly shit filling. Gonna go with layabout. ##vote layabout Nothing in his filter that screams his alignment one way or the other. WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler + Well he replaced out. This makes a lot of his lack of interest and activity in the latter half of the game pretty explainable. I wasn't altogether please with his play (especially his stuff on Holyflare), but it's better not to make judgements about an incomplete filter and let his replacement talk some. Geript I believe to be town. Geript is extremely active and emotional this game. His tunnels seem very genuine, and while he ended up on BlazingHand, he definitely was very involved in the chaos and discussion of the day. He's drawn a ton of attention to himself, and really isn't someone I'm concerned about. Tehpoofter I'm less sure about, but I think he's town. He's playing extraordinarily different from his scum-game in You Only Shoot Once, and was fairly active/involved early on. He was afk for the last ~24 hours of the day (not changing his vote or posting at all), which leads me to believe his vote being off of one of the main wagons is a null-tell. Based on his early day behavior, I give him a moderate town read, with the expectation that he continues that in future days. Wait what? You thought we missed on him? Now he is not only red, but BOLDED red compared to val who isn't and me who is black? For having a throwaway vote and being generally disengaged/sarcastic? Your outlook on scum defending themselves from being BW'd sure is different than mine. Generally I think his tambo read progression is just non-committal, weird, and doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I feel as if he is trying to push what he feels are easy MLs on targets that don't post much and are new to the game. But the strangest thing for me, or the thing I find the most odd, is that his criticism is uneven. He calls out geript for confirmation bias then sits idly by while BH pushes a case full of confirmation bias. He swaps his vote to odin for no stated reason and because others are doing it, then criticizes those who swapped their vote for no reason. He doesn't like how people aren't pushing cases, but his two largest cases are against val (a case mostly made by onceking imo) and me (a case mostly made by layabout imo). He is criticizing people for things he himself is doing. Maybe it is just bad play and I am being a stick in the mud about it. Something here is just off, I can feel it. | ||
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hey marv, i have a question for you! | ||
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you town bro? *looks into eyes* | ||
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i have the ability to tell if people have been "touched by magic", from what i understand this means that i can tell if people are magical, have been targeted by magic, or have magical abilities. so, i don't really think my info is extremely helpful, but it is info at least. what i know is that 27ninjabunnies has been touched by magic. what do you think of that? | ||
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On May 25 2014 11:42 marvellosity wrote: "from what i understand that means i can tell if people are magical" - what are you basing that on? well i have been warned in the thread for behavior before, so i don't really wanna get too close to my role description for fear of being removed. but in the description it leads me to believe that magical entities such as djinni will result in a "touched by magic" check rather than a "not touched by magic" check | ||
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On May 25 2014 11:57 marvellosity wrote: that encompasses such a massive range of things :/ are you sure it's that unspecific? yes, unfortunately i think it is that unspecific, thus why i don't find it particularly useful. and why i am willing to be open with the info | ||
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On May 25 2014 12:06 marvellosity wrote: well i don't think bunnies was a very likely night target for anything, so i guess that probably rules that one out so do you have more of a power role or scum read on her then? | ||
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On May 25 2014 12:33 marvellosity wrote: I don't have either particular read, I just can't see why any faction would visit bunnies. Well, let's just say we are in a hypothetical world where there is 0% chance she was a target of anything last night. Gun to your head you have to say power role or scum. Which do you say? | ||
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