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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:05 GMT
#566
Wait no fuck that that post sucked... god i hate that post...on the contrary to what I said there is NO critical thinking beyond the weak hypothesis he posed about BigDad/Dragoon pair. I just realized the guy literally has 3 posts in this game. Would lynch.

I think I need sleep but fuck that...
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:29 GMT
#568
@jonnylaw on the same note though... he has a LOT of pressure on him, keeping him around will keep everyone who is currently voting him honest, they will have to continue to pressure him... and continue to have solid reasoning surrounding him.

I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:42 GMT
#571
newbies are way too nice... im starting to see the merit to your style of play jonny
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:44 GMT
#573
yeah me neither, although fwiw i'm leaning more town on him for the content of his posts this time
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:46 GMT
#575
i couldn't really keep up with the part where you were alive in that game haha but i did read the end of it.....

i think i just need somebody to call me fucking awful or some shit to spark me...
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:49 GMT
#576
one thing about dynarri that i noticed in that big post:

read suki as town because they were both doing a lot of the same stuff...

My opinions about suki are based on the simple reason that suki has suspected the same players as I have, TheChyz and TheDragoon. Suki also unvoted TheChyz, like I did.


feels weird that he specifically points out that last part... why does that matter...? FEELS ODD MAN
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 08:51 GMT
#578
so you agree that there's mafia in the current vote right?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:34 GMT
#579
On January 07 2014 17:33 Day_Walker wrote:
Ok Dragoon seems more or less done talking, and I want to hear Balla's take on my thoughts.

Let's talk about lurkers.

dnyarri
+ Show Spoiler +

Three total posts. I flagged his first post as potentially scum, and given his follpw-up it looks even worse to me now than it did then. His second post switches his lynch vote from TheChyz to Dragoon:
On January 06 2014 23:43 dnyarri wrote:
Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&currentpage=16#316

TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.

TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.

##unvote
##vote: TheDragoon


This feels like rather weak reasoning to me, and I'm not sure the part I bolded - which seems to be sharing his thought process from evidence to vote - even makes sense.

On one hand, it's hard to call him a bandwagoner because he placed to first vote on Dragoon.
On the other hand, between dnyarri's first and second post we had the IC retract his Chyz vote, and BigDad label me and Dragoon as scummy. The wind was definitely blowing away from Chyz and towards Dragoon before dnyarri changed his vote.

Dnyarri's last post is fine, and I agree with a lot of the content, but it was prompted by an accusation by Balla of rehashing and not talking about enough people. A fine post, but one that was prompted, rather than spontaneous.


sidesprang
+ Show Spoiler +

Three posts the first day. Two of them are spent agreeing with Balla, the last one gives the consensus view of OWB and Chyz.

Comes in late on the second day and drops this:
On January 07 2014 10:44 sidesprang wrote:
Been away most of the day sry. Skimming through the thread now. Came to this. Voting for yourself make it an autovote for me. If you are town please fight for your life, we have everything to gain. If town we will hopefully see it, if scum we will hopefully be more sure you are scum after your defence.

##Vote theDragoon

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 07:21 theDragoon wrote:
On January 07 2014 07:11 Balla24 wrote:
Eh, you are misjudging us if you think we're experienced players... we are just experienced with noob games

But rest assured, if you're new we are and SHOULD be taking it into account... but explicitly stating "I AM NEW PLS DONT LYNCH ME MY READS MIGHT BE BAD" is NOT helpful whatsoever. Catch my drift?


/offtopic:Yea i get it. I just felt like a lot of people look into my posts too much thinking there's some sort of link or slip or whatever when in reality i just don't know WTF I'm doing.

/ontopic: I'm gonna ##Unvote onlywonderboy and ##Vote theDragoon. There's no way to get out of this mess, you're all really looking at the wrong guy. I guess without me fucking things up for the town, you'd be better off but this is going to be 2 down for mafia after the first night. I have to head out, I'll be on later.




I'll be catching up for a bit, if anyone have any questions feel free to ask I'll be around for a bit. But gonna use some time catching up as a lot have been posted.


What's this? An autovote that absolves him of any need to justify hopping on carriage #9 of the lynch train? How convenient.

Any desire to make a substantive comment on the day that he missed? Apparently not.


onlywonderboy
+ Show Spoiler +

Here is my last post on him:
On January 07 2014 11:41 Day_Walker wrote:
@Suki @Balla24

Here is my line of thinking on OBW:
After day 1, his filter had three posts. One cautionary comment about reading Balla, one good point about the IC and a promise to be a good townie, and one question about policy debates and scum hunting.

All fine things to post, and he gets some good feedback (e.g. my list). But these are also very safe posts, and that's all we get for the first 24 hours. I can read this as a scum thinking "great, said some things, got people to like me, now I can let them argue about Chyz for a day". This was the point at which I suggested OBW as a possible lynch target.

His posting for the next day starts with the first big reaction to the me + Dragoon scum pair idea that BigDad brought up, and then he basically rides that idea for the rest of the day.

So the meat of his contribution over the last two days is one read which I know (although Town doesn't) to be false, and it's a read that came served on a platter. From my perspective, OBW's actions makes a lot of sense as scum.


I'll just add to this by noting that OWB placed vote #3 on Dragoon.


I've said nothing about Dragoon's behavior. I don't think I have to. Based on the actions of other players, I'm fairly confident that we just saw the mafia run a bandwagon.

I'm not dismissing the reads of suki and Jonny (the only two people who have made substantial arguments for lynching Dragoon). But if Dragoon is scum, we can get him later. He is at least willing to be around and talk with the Town. And most importantly, we have better lynch targets. I ordered the lurkers from most to least scummy, and I think that either dnyarri or sidesprang would make a solid lynch.

## Vote dnyarri


I'm still not sure whether I actually want to lynch a lurker tomorrow or not. But hopefully this conversation can help me decide.

What annoys me the most out of dnyarri is straight up the lack of posting and sense, i just straight up can't read them well because of it. I think that's what you're getting at too. So yeah, totally agree. For sidesprang, i keep flip flopping on him... but it's kind of similar to OWB's scum last game where he clearly says he's gonna do stuff like catch up but yet doesn't post any thoughts about it later.

For OWB, I think I just posted something about him, but I'm reading him more townie mostly because of my meta with him. He's committing more, and minimally talking about policy and theorycrafting compared to his scumgame where that was almost all he talked about.

"I'm fairly confident that we just saw the mafia run a bandwagon." - I don't really understand why you're going after the lurkers then? Why not directly go after the people with cases on dragoon (me, suki, jonnylaw)?

Why are you specifically asking me for a response here as well? What is your read on me? Scum or town, i can't tell. Seems like you're accusing me.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:35 GMT
#580
Gonna go cuddle up in my bed, still gonna be around... ^_^
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:39 GMT
#583
On January 07 2014 18:35 TheChyz wrote:
The only problem I have with an dnyarri vote is that it won't really tell us much apart from what HIS alignment is, however somebody else as a lynch (like Dragoon for example), will help us gain some information on other players regardless of alignment.


that's a trade off we have to take if we decide to policy lynch
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:41 GMT
#585
@bigdad Mafia also benefits from lurkers in the fact that it gives them a super easy target to push to a mislynch, don't forget that... I did it in my first game as scum in fact.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:45 GMT
#587
On January 07 2014 18:41 JonnyLaw wrote:
Balla, I'm not accusing you of anything. You could be scum but I don't care today. You'll be active enough I can find out.

I really want to know if you want to lynch lurkers. I'm no topposed because you know that feeling the next day when it seems to late to start lynching lurkers?

Yeah, I hate it.


well whole reason I'm taking my time is because you told me to sleep on it... but yeah I am growing more worried about running out of time too which is leading me to stand firm on lynching someone active... we'll learn more about ppl and that's the way I like to play the game, with relationships
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:47 GMT
#590
Johnny can you answer the q I asked at the bottomish of last PG pls? Mafia in vote q..
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:50 GMT
#592
On January 07 2014 18:46 JonnyLaw wrote:
That's what I've always said in the newb games as well. It worked. We caught the lurkers later.
you have certainly taught me well.

these lurkers aren't even half as bad as we had in that first game either... I guess I shouldn't be worried about it... especially since sidesprang is definitely making enough of a contribution to read him
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 09:56 GMT
#593
the question I'm reffering to

On January 07 2014 17:51 Balla24 wrote:
so you agree that there's mafia in the current vote right?


Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 10:30 GMT
#596
I had a lot of problems with your entry, which you can and should reread on pg20 since there is 1 or 2 posts I made that we forgot about in our discussion... and i also found it really annoying that you were saving your vote for no reason, let me reread what else I was thinking in regards to you.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 10:35 GMT
#599
Gah, time zones suck. I wish I could discuss with you Derrida but I'm falling asleep TT...
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 10:41 GMT
#602
On January 07 2014 19:33 Derrida wrote:
@Anyone online, what do you think about Asuna, TheChyz, and BigDad not having an active vote?


Asuna has stated shed be fine lynching dragoon, so i count that as a vote. Chyz seems to be the only one weary of voting dragoon. BigDad also has been projecting his intention to lynch dragoon same as asuna I think.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 10:46 GMT
#604
@DW you specifically said something like 'I believe we saw Mafia run a bandwagon' so by that you meant they hopped on the bandwagon and not that they led the bandwagon?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 10:52 GMT
#607
On January 07 2014 15:41 Day_Walker wrote:
I don't like the lynch on theDragoon.

I'll give my reasoning in a bit, but I want hear more from Dragoon first.


Please explain more. You have since said you don't think you need to but I didn't really understand that. You are very adamant that dragoon is going to flip town, why? What has he done that makes him so town to you?
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