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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: And if town JK did claim and get´s nightkilled town!Oberyn (by your thought process) get´s lynched. Now how does that make sense? im going over scum oberyn, and why would scum oberyn claim. It doesnt make sense for scum oberyn to make this play | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
Do you feel that Oberyn got looked at really hard today? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18450 Posts
On August 12 2013 21:28 Clarity_nl wrote: I considered oberyn's claim to be a possible fakeclaim. I thought Onegu's claim was real though. If I am scum I just hope it's a fakeclaim because if I claim jailkeeper in thread I'm getting lynched regardless. No way does this happen. Lets assume for the sake of argument that Oberyn and Onegu are both loyalists. As a Blackfyre it is way too high risk to keep silent and hope it's a ploy. It would not make sense to assume a loyalist is fakeclaiming watcher. Claiming a protective jailer, however would mitigate the expected damage that the act could do. Especially since two people claimed to be locked up at home last night. It seems far more likely that: - Whoever roleblocked Xatalos was away from the hall for the entire duration of the ploy. Looking through today's notules, I see no signs of life from either Strongandbig or Vivax before their cover is blown. These seem to be the most likely targets. - Whoever roleblocked Xatalos is a fierce loyalist who is above suspicion and felt no need to blow their cover. In the latter case in particular, it is extremely likely that Oberyn or Onegu is a Blackfyre pretender: they KNEW they hadn't blocked Xatalos' actions, and concocted this plan to flush out a loyalist jailer. Given that it was Oberyn's plan and Onegu just played along, it seems more likely to be Oberyn. As a loyalist, I don't see much benefit in the whole thing: why risk flushing out an important protector of the realm? I don't trust Oberyn's intentions one bit. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:06 Onegu wrote: No I am saying he would get looked hard if a town JK claimed and was then NK So why did he do this as town then? What separates "makes no sense as scum to do" from "makes sense as town to do"? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18450 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:01 Onegu wrote: Still thinking and going through possibilities. Town JK claims is very townie person isnt lynched, dies at night, next day oberyn is lynched. He would trade himself for one blue. Doesnt make much sense. Why would Oberyn automatically get lynched? If the loyalist claim is made public, then too many people know to pin this back on Oberyn with any certainty. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:09 Onegu wrote: and he is getting looked at alot more than he would have if he never claimed. Best case for a scum Oberyn is he trades himself for one blue. Doesnt seem legit No, if town JK did claim, there is no reason to think Oberyn is suddenly more/less scummy than he was before. It has nothing to do with Oberyn and the JK dying does not necessarily mean he is mafia. What means is that he outed a blue, whatever alignment he is. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: No, if town JK did claim, there is no reason to think Oberyn is suddenly more/less scummy than he was before. It has nothing to do with Oberyn and the JK dying does not necessarily mean he is mafia. What means is that he outed a blue, whatever alignment he is. Outing a blue with a fakeclaim. Only to have that person die would look really bad on him, and I am sure people would want his lynch, its to much risk for little reward as scum. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18450 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:14 Onegu wrote: Outing a blue with a fakeclaim. Only to have that person die would look really bad on him, and I am sure people would want his lynch, its to much risk for little reward as scum. Well, you're here saying he's loyal for the exact reasons that people would say he's loyal if all this happened. Nevertheless, it all seems entirely based on wifom. There is also still the third possibility that you are a Blackfyre and that's why a Blackfyre roleblocker never claimed: Oberyn's plan was hatched by a loyalist, but immediately compromised. Until we actually get some flips or further info, it all seems like pointless wifom, though. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Or maybe next game I play in I will start a policy that you need to make 10 posts a day otherwise you get lynched. If you are town and you don't post 10 times you just fail at life and at this game. Always the same people talking and I can't read any of them, except give them a town read... EXCEPT On August 12 2013 02:55 iamperfection wrote: no the likeliest conclusion is that gum was shot by a town vig at the end of the night when he was still alive. I have such a problem with this post. Like which stupid vigi is going to use his shot on a guy that has almost no hp? 6 Lords should have killed gumshoe and if gumshoe was still alive at the end of the day he should have been checked by a Lord on n2. Or even n1 like iamp did but then it is VERY suspicious that after the 1 hp check on gumshoe, gumshoe dies. The chance that scum spent a part or all their KP on is 0%. The only reason scum would target gum is if they knew he was blue or they knew he had 1 hp and gambled blue. So if there was a vigi he would have shot a target on the list but not the first 2 because his shot could be less effective. I think iamp is scum. Just because of this post and the fact he used the hp check. If iamp is not scum there is scum hiding in his House and I do not see how iamp does not see this. On top of that the whole FTofu lynch felt wrong. Just like FTofu said, there were worse lurkers than him, or atleast equally worse. There was no case on FT except "the wagon of justice is here yabababababa." Then the vote on yamato from iamp was without case as well. I (Koshi) completely would have also voted yamato after a redclaim obviously but I wouldn't have shot down Oats trying to talk about it. Or at least give some sort of argument to Oats why Yamato is scum except for the redcheck. yamato77- Thought he was town because of the fight early on but has been entirely apathetic in the game and is not intrested in catching scum at all. More intrested in complaining. could be scum yamato could be scum in iamp his will. While the explanation to why he is scum also has a townread in it. In iamp his last will Vivax is his strongest scumread. While Vivax has been iamps strongest scumread this entire game, iamp has decided during the lynch only Vivax should be spared and FT should be lynched. The scumreason for this is if you get a town Vivax lynched you look extremely scummy, while discrediting Vivax the entire game till somebody else lynches him is way better. Also, I am a townread from iamp. That's all friendly and shit but why do I get a feeling I am getting set up for gettting lynched when it is lylo/mylo. Just like last game... PS: the friendly and shit is a *wink* at Oats who I now consider town if yamato flips scum. If Yamato flips towns this was all for nothing and Oats can be lynched. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:17 Acrofales wrote: Well, you're here saying he's loyal for the exact reasons that people would say he's loyal if all this happened. Nevertheless, it all seems entirely based on wifom. There is also still the third possibility that you are a Blackfyre and that's why a Blackfyre roleblocker never claimed: Oberyn's plan was hatched by a loyalist, but immediately compromised. Until we actually get some flips or further info, it all seems like pointless wifom, though. Yes I am going though motivation and what could have happened. If he is scum he doesnt gain much no matter how it played out. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18450 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:21 Clarity_nl wrote: Acro why do you say one of the two has to be scum in reply to me, and then you call it "pointless wifom" in the following post? I never say that. I suggest you reread the notules of what I said. In my reply to you I am explaining how I think you're wrong about Blackfyres having balls of steel and go through the possibilities. I never reached any conclusions, because we actually need some confirmation about which situation we're in: SnB or Vivax can still be the cause for Xatalos getting locked in, and there's a pretty good chance they are Blackfyre scum (one, or both). Lord knows what their profession is, but it's possible one is a jailer. What I absolutely DON'T think is that we can just conclude Oberyn and Onegu are loyal from this, because it seems farfetched that IF Xatalos was locked in by a Blackfyre and they did not know about the plot, I believe they 100% WOULD have claimed. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:22 Onegu wrote: Yes I am going though motivation and what could have happened. If he is scum he doesnt gain much no matter how it played out. Ofcourse he gets alot because scum knows who the JK is and Oberyn can just say "guys, you all believed the visitor was scum, I did that as well and tried to find him". Also, Clarity & Xatalos had to post around 10 times to come to this conclusion while Oberyn just found it instantly out on his own? That's very unlikely. Oberyn & iamp both scum? Interesting. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:32 Onegu wrote: Btw its not just Snb and Vivax absent, Jrkirby hasnt posted, and I think koshi also just posted for the first time. THAT REMINDS ME OF YOUR SHITTY CASE ON ME. HAHAHAHA You scum Onegu? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18450 Posts
On August 10 2013 10:44 jrkirby wrote: Why did you sign up if you're not really gonna play? Said the pot to the kettle | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:22 Onegu wrote: Yes I am going though motivation and what could have happened. If he is scum he doesnt gain much no matter how it played out. eh what? he gains a town jailkeeper. Lotta motivation. Ok so a town jk claims and gets lynched. Why would oberyn get lynched next? IT DOESNT MAKE SENSE ONEGU. | ||
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