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On July 19 2013 02:13 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 04:55 Gotard wrote:
What's the point of lynching Superfluous right now? Since he's gone there's no discussion around him. his case was closed after first day. He can only hope that people will think that day one was town-town lynch which is the case. I'm struggling with this comment. Gotard threw this out right before he was lynched. His death looked inevitable to me, although I suppose he could have thought there were going to be shenanigans at the deadline. The takeaways from this comment's inconsistency with his recent read of Superfluous being a scum read break down into a 2x2 grid: The two variables are Super is Scum / Super is Town, and Gotard Thought He Could Live / Gotard Knew He Was Dead. Matrix below: ------------------------- Super is Scum / Gotard Thinks He Can Live: 1.) Gotard thinks he can live; he and Super are scum. Throws out a new Town read on Super as protection instinct. Solo votes Nightcat. Super is Scum / Gotard Knows He Will Die: 2.) Gotard knows he's going to die; thinks giving Super a Town read on a scumbuddy is a good play for some reason (help with this please?). Super is Town / Gotard Knows He Will Die: 3.) Gotard knows he's going to die (and flip red) and is trying to mindrape us into thinking Super is his scumbuddy by creating this new association so close to his flip. (Is it too sophisticated a play to assume from Gotard?) Super is Town / Gotard Thinks He Can Live: 4.) Gotard thinks he can live; he knows Super is town. (I cannot come up with a plausible explanation for his comment.) ------------------- Now, we obviously can't rule anything out based on Super's alignment (because we don't know it!) right now, but we might be able to speculate on whether we think / can find evidence of whether Gotard knew he was doomed last night or if he thought he could somehow avoid the day's lynch. At first blush, I feel like Gotard didn't realize how much of a slam dunk lynch he was. He was still throwing out passive accusations, and (sort of) playing the game. There were no martyr posts, no attempt to defend the accusations against him, and he may not have realized just how much trouble he was in. The last post that I'd call a 'defense' came timestamped July 17th, 20:11. When he posted it, there were only 3 votes on him. Once the hz, 'slam, Gotard and Nightcat votes come in on him (early timestamp July 18th 1:12 - 4:00) Gotard doesn't post another formal defense for the rest of the game. I know that play this poor this may seem hard to believe to some of us, but based on the quality of Gotard's play to this point, I believe it's possible he didn't know how super screwed he was. His last post comes 2.5 hours before Superfluous' vote on him, so it's possible that with Super gone from the mafia QT for most of Day 2, Gotard was flying solo or at least down a man when he was posting. I'd like people's thoughts on this line of thinking. Did it seem to you like Gotard knew he'd be lynched yesterday?
I know it's somewhat moot to point this out, but as I am town I believe #3 (fixed for you since you listed 2 twice lol) is the most likely scenario. Maybe Gotard wasn't that strong of a player, but that doesn't mean his mafia buddies couldn't tell him to give a town read on me in order to get me lynched. If he really thought he could live, the best way to do so would've been to convince town I was more scummy than he was, which he didn't even try to do. Now if we were both maf and one of us were definitely gonna get lynched it would make sense he wouldn't switch onto me. However as maf I would be furious he put me as town read/ told him not to do that.
I'd also like to point out that both Umashi and Xzavier immediately voted for me on day 2, when the town as a whole seemed somewhat more inclined to vote for Gotard than for me, which we did.
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On July 19 2013 02:49 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 15:33 Alakaslam wrote:By the way, I did something stupid. Here are my reads: Super: people have made fair accusations of lurking in a way I don't like. Wouldn't facepalm if he gets lynched next day. Nightcat: very, very new. Save for later. Chrom: totes town. Don't sheep him.  Hurricane: forming. He is making me lean town with this exchange. Onegu: totes town. He is bamcis, let him put the pressure on. Umasi: town. Anyone not on this list may or may not be scummy. They aren't prominent enough to come to mind, which is right where scum wants to be, and right where passive town usually wind up. When I finish this exchange with hurricane, I may have a full day at work after sleep and be unable to post until day. So I know this isn't ideal, but at least it is. Wish I wasn't such a fool. There are 9 players left in the game and it is the night phase. Why do you give 5 town reads, 1 weak scum read and then passively FoS the other 2 players? If there are things that you do not like about me then this is the time to explore them, as opposed to just giving your town reads.
I felt the exact same way, was gonna post same thing. Would you consider those not on this list scum reads through process of elimination?
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Everybody check hurricane's filter. Chances are whatever his strongest townread is is because he checked them and got town back, I'm willing to bet we should trust that person. I'll be doing this myself too just making sure we all come to same conclusion. I retract my soft pressure on umasi. Hz didn't know he was gonna die,he jumped on my soft pressure and I bet he was gonna try to go for an umasi lynch tomorrow. Not just that, but he knew hurricane would die and could try to make the case that at least one person on tribunal was maf. I'd like to point out (could've been luck but take it as you will) that hzflank was my #2 scum read at the beginning of the game. Maybe this is some elaborate ruse by me to put him there at beginning but just want to make sure people are aware of that.
I am really weirded out that people are going on onegu. Maybe it was some super-weird meta play by stim but he claimed veteran and I'm inclined to trust him. Only way to confirm would be to check with detective (which we now can't) or shoot him if we had vigi which would be super-risky.
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On July 19 2013 09:12 Nightcat99 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 09:10 Umasi wrote:
I haven't read your guys reads and etc yet
I was roleblocked last night but the roleblocker, gotard died yesterday, there is 2? geez this game is confusing, i would not have called hzflank a scum..... and i wish , we knew who sponge checked, he shall have posted his checks since it was very likely he was going to die.
We have town jailer or umasi is lying. If umasi is telling the truth then he isn't sk or maf since two died last night. Time will come for town jailer to claim if they exist, but I don't think it's today. Sponge only had one night to check. Either his strongest read was based on check or he checked someone who died.
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Wait really..... fuck me.
This whole time I interpreted vt as veteren. I've always typed out vanilla town. Plus, I mean, what the hell is the point of claiming vanilla town. It does nothing except cause suspicion on you and scream out "I'm not a blue role!". I never thought someone would claim that.
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On July 19 2013 09:17 Umasi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 09:15 Superfluous wrote:
Everybody check hurricane's filter. Chances are whatever his strongest townread is is because he checked them and got town back, I'm willing to bet we should trust that person. I'll be doing this myself too just making sure we all come to same conclusion. I retract my soft pressure on umasi. Hz didn't know he was gonna die,he jumped on my soft pressure and I bet he was gonna try to go for an umasi lynch tomorrow. Not just that, but he knew hurricane would die and could try to make the case that at least one person on tribunal was maf. I'd like to point out (could've been luck but take it as you will) that hzflank was my #2 scum read at the beginning of the game. Maybe this is some elaborate ruse by me to put him there at beginning but just want to make sure people are aware of that.
I am really weirded out that people are going on onegu. Maybe it was some super-weird meta play by stim but he claimed veteran and I'm inclined to trust him. Only way to confirm would be to check with detective (which we now can't) or shoot him if we had vigi which would be super-risky. StiM never claimed vet. ....I think. I thought we all got that he was vt, or vanilla town, out of that right?
Also, I thought in my other posts I pointed this out and no one called it out.... Guess I didn't make it clear enough.
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On July 19 2013 09:28 Xzavier wrote:
so now we know that there is a town JK still alive, thats really good for us.
time to filter dive hurricane and hzflank.
I'd say there's no guarantee of jk being alive, but it would be a pretty dumb play by maf to fake claim this.
Mods, are we able to know if there to be a town jk, would they have a document with the person they block? Other games I played have had this.
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On July 19 2013 09:34 Superfluous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 09:28 Xzavier wrote:
so now we know that there is a town JK still alive, thats really good for us.
time to filter dive hurricane and hzflank.
I'd say there's no guarantee of jk being alive, but it would be a pretty dumb play by maf to fake claim this. Mods, are we able to know if there to be a town jk, would they have a document with the person they block? Other games I played have had this.
Not being alive, of there being a jk. Woops
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On July 19 2013 09:37 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 09:34 Superfluous wrote:On July 19 2013 09:28 Xzavier wrote:
so now we know that there is a town JK still alive, thats really good for us.
time to filter dive hurricane and hzflank.
I'd say there's no guarantee of jk being alive, but it would be a pretty dumb play by maf to fake claim this. Mods, are we able to know if there to be a town jk, would they have a document with the person they block? Other games I played have had this. i get what your saying with the first half, and i seriously dont think anybody to be stupid enough to fake-claim after seeing the Rolebloker die. Thats a silly play and would get lynched the next day if nobody else said anything (unless the JK hit teh SK and there was only 1 NK) i didnt follow your green text in the slightest
In other games I've played, when jailer roleblocks someone they also get to have a private conversation with them. It's like "oh you're in my jail so let's talk without anyone else knowing." For instance cop could claim under this situation without fear of being outed. It would be useful to know, but I don't think that's how it works here.
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Good job nightcat lol.
Here are my thoughts, firstly we are in a really good position right now. Umasi is pretty much confirmed town to me not just because he was roleblocked and came out with it but because hz seemed to be lining up a lynch for him today. I believe Hurricane had a strong town read on him as well. We also most likely have jk, who I don't think should claim today but should probably claim tomorrow. We also have the chance if we don't lynch maf/sk today that one could kill the other during the night, especially with a decently low number of players left.
I think Xzavier is far and away the best lynch today. Keep in mind he didn't even vote for gotard until he already had eight votes on him. Nightcat's observation is notable as well, especially considering I called out both Xzavier and hzflank early on and they both pushed for my lynch. I would've thought that they would mention each other somewhere. I am also unsure why he continues to push for my lynch. I understand I haven't been the most effective town player but right now it feels to me like he's grasping at strings from day one and not paying attention to what's more relevant now.
I'd also like to lay out best-case and worst case scenarios. I also think it's important to talk about the math at this point to fully understand our situation.
Best case scenario: We lynch maf. At night jk (assuming we have one) roleblocks sk, no night kills, jk claims we lynch sk gg.
OK I changed my mind, I wrote out worst case scenario and realized I was basically spelling out how mafia/ sk could win. nvm just think of this to yourselves lol.
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Not that it matters but I basically had the same plan as chrom but did the math wrong wrong and didn't post it.I thought if jk claimed and said who they would jail then sk would just try to kill who they jailed. Then next day we would lynch who jk jailed cause we thought the reason no one died was because they got jailed. Doesn't matter though we have enough lynches to do both me and nightcat.
If it's definitely between me and nightcat, I'd only ask we lynch nightcat first then you can lynch me the next day. It would shorten the game by 72 hours lol.
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On July 22 2013 07:30 hzflank wrote:
At the point of my death, I had Super as Cop (with a N1 guilty check on Xzav), Sponge as JK and Umasi as SK. I also had Rainbows as Vet on D1.
Yeah, if you look through my filter knowing who's who you could interpret my posts as fake soft-claiming cop. I do this a decent amount because it can make mafia waste a kill on me instead of going after real cop. Didn't work out too much this game because I had so much pressure on me early.
Also, my first two and top scumreads were hzflank and xzavier. Too pro.
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On July 22 2013 07:56 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2013 07:52 Superfluous wrote:On July 22 2013 07:30 hzflank wrote:
At the point of my death, I had Super as Cop (with a N1 guilty check on Xzav), Sponge as JK and Umasi as SK. I also had Rainbows as Vet on D1. Yeah, if you look through my filter knowing who's who you could interpret my posts as fake soft-claiming cop. I do this a decent amount because it can make mafia waste a kill on me instead of going after real cop. Didn't work out too much this game because I had so much pressure on me early. Also, my first two and top scumreads were hzflank and xzavier. Too pro. If I had interpreted your soft-claim, I would have hard claimed and pushed for your lynch. Which would have ended up with both of us dead.
Thinking about it more, I wouldn't call it soft claim. It's more giving out a fake read I guess. Mafia is looking for cop and trying to get a read on them. I didn't soft claim so much as talk about cop a lot and the importance of cop. I don't think I ever did something as blatant as when alak soft claimed jailer.
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That was all reads, not even me trying to soft claim LOL. That thought was furthest from my mind there Shout out to the coach who said stay with your gut, it's the best place for reads to come from. I think I said in in game, but my. reads are based on my gut and how I interpret the tone in someone's writing. If I had positive read on someone and was cop I would've claimed. I would've highly doubted there would be miller in a game with sk. (Was there one? Someone was talking about earlier in the thread and I couldn't find it.)
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EPT
