|
To waste a town lynch on jampi and force us to fuck around another day on MG when we could have dealt with him already if the nuke on jampi had just landed.
|
So basically your case is an association case, is that right?
|
On July 15 2013 00:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
So basically your case is an association case, is that right?
It's not, really.
You're not reading the case properly.
Regardless on MG's flip Geript is trying to force us to waste our time.
Someone said they asked Artanis whether it would show if the nuke lands if we lynch MG and apparently it DOESN'T.
This means that Geript will have wasted our time again and we will learn absolutely nothing about Stutters' role if he has is way and we lynch MG.
|
On July 15 2013 00:15 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2013 15:31 johnnywup wrote:This brings a dilemma however. If we don't lynch MG, then it's possible that scum still has 2 KP tonight, if the nuke is indeed a dud. If we mislynch it's triply bad. If we just lynch MG, okay, we lose 1 person. Of course we'll be trying to lynch scum but the possibility is troubling if we mess up. If we lynch someone else outside the situation, and it turns out to be a townie, then we lose 1 during day and 2 at night. Of course, if we lynch outside the situation and hits a scum we're in a GREAT position, we're almost done. There are 18 alive right now I believe (correct me if I miscounted) which means 14 town and 4 scum, at BEST (assuming no 3p for sake of argument--including 3p only makes it worse) So as far as I can see there's the following possibilities: + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +
A: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG doesn't hit. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST.
B: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG hits. He's scum. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
C: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG hits. He's townie. On day 4, it's 10 townies to 4 scum at BEST
D: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG doesn't hit. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum, at BEST
E: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG hits. He's scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 2 scum at BEST
F: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG hits. He's townie. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
G. We lynch MG. He's scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum at BEST
H. We lynch MG. He's townie. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST
I: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke doesn't land. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST
J: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke lands. MG is town. On day 4, it's 10 townies to 4 scum at BEST
K: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke lands. MG is scum. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
L: We lynch Stutters. He's scum. Nuke doesn't land. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum at BEST
M: We lynch Stutters. He's scum. Nuke lands. MG is scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 2 scum at BEST
N: We lynch stutters. He's scum. Nuke lands. MG is town. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
(assuming if we hit scum today we get rid of 1 KP, there is 5 total scum, and the rest are townie, and if we lynch MG we don't know whether or not the nuke would hit) Averaging the outcomes (if outcomes are equal---which they are obviously not, but just something to consider) Lynching outside the situation or lynching stutters: 11.833333 townies on day 4 with 3.16666 scum Lynching MG: 12 townies on day 4, 3.5 scum Lynching outside the situation therefore has more townies/scum on average, and is probably a better pick than lynching MG. Although I included lynching stutters as an option I don't think it's a good idea at all because it lends itself to REALLY bad situations imo. However I haven't taken into account that if the nuke doesn't hit then Stutters is probably town and if it does hit he's probably scum. Intuition tells me that lynching outside of the situation lends to better results if you take that into account. But back to the dilemma. Best possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit scum, nuke lands, MG flips scum. Worst possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke lands, MG flips town. Most likely scenario IMO (sorry town but after 2 mislynches I have less faith): We lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke may or may not land. The problem I have is that if the nuke doesn't land we lose 3 townies for nothing in this situation, when we could have lynched a (relatively) confirmed scum. On the other hand, if we do decide to lynch MG, we get no information on Stutters from this at all. So I'm really torn. What does everyone else think? Oh yeah I meant to comment on this. I doubt you're nything bt town at this point, but mind explaining your assumption as to the KP formula in this game? If we hit scum in MG you know it's still possible scum have 2 KP tonight, right?
yes of course. I assumed that we get rid of town KP if we successfully kill scum today for a couple reasons.
1. It's best case scenario. You may say why assume best case scenario? Because if we assume that we DON'T get rid of KP, look what happens if we mislynch and the nuke doesn't land (a likely possibility). On day 4, it would be 11 town to 4 scum. If we mislynch HERE it's 8 town to 4 scum... if we lynch scum here, ok, 9 town 3 scum.. but scum still has 2 KP. a bit better but we're starting to get into lylo territory either way. Of course, if we lynch scum today and the nuke doesn't land, it would be 12 town to 3 scum then either 9 town to 3 scum or 10 town to 2 scum. I assume that we get rid of KP because I think it makes much more sense for the sake of argument and is more probable in my eyes anyways.
for the record, I am totally against a stutters lynch.
Ugh, I really don't know what to do because I'm pretty confident MG is scum, but if I vote for him we get no info about stutters. If I don't vote for him, we might lose 3 townies.
|
On July 15 2013 01:02 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 00:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
So basically your case is an association case, is that right? It's not, really. You're not reading the case properly. Regardless on MG's flip Geript is trying to force us to waste our time. Someone said they asked Artanis whether it would show if the nuke lands if we lynch MG and apparently it DOESN'T. This means that Geript will have wasted our time again and we will learn absolutely nothing about Stutters' role if he has is way and we lynch MG.
Geript, please explain yourself
|
We really need to agree on a lynch. I disagree with everything geript has done and suggested, but it seems almost to obvious for him to be scum.
Are ninja votes a scumtell?
I really prefer a austin lynch, with everything xata posted, plus I dont like his claim or his defense as there is no way we can or should read things into a closed setup. Unless someone claims to have shutdown a nuke maker, he should be the target since I cant get anyone on z-bosan.
Vote: Austin
|
I'm working an Austin case during downtime at work but he'd be my number 1 non-MG lynch.
|
I'm not voting Austin today.
|
On July 14 2013 18:20 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2013 17:12 MajuGarzett wrote:Once again I have to reiterate I am definitely not the best choice to lynch. This would be true even if there wasn't a chance I would die from a nuke. On July 13 2013 06:57 Xatalos wrote:
MajuGarzett
1) His first content-post is very... weak and careful, basically focusing to just doing something for the sake of doing something and staying off the radar
2) Same theme continues with his second content-post during D2... weak and careful, nothing decisive or new to the discussion
3) Lots of useless fluff that appears semi-contributive on first look
4) A vague show of "interest" to rayn's claim, then conveniently going away until the matter was more or less already resolved
That is basically the case against me and it really has nothing solidly scummy. Just some tendencies that can easily be explained by my inexperience with mafia. Geript shot down a nuke heading towards a player most people believed was scummy and neglected to use his power on much more townie people who were being nuked. Due to this he effectively caused an entire day of discussion to be wasted. It was the best thing that could happen for scum. Yet somehow there are 6 votes against me and only 1 against him. Xata advocated the lynch of austin just as much as mine and since then there has been further evidence against him while the case against me has remained stagnant. Despite this there is only one vote against him. CA has gone the majority of the game doing nothing on the excuse that he is drunk and new to the game. On July 09 2013 20:11 CaucasianAsian wrote:Dinner went quicker than expected On July 09 2013 19:39 jampidampi wrote:I don't think rayn lauched the nuke. On July 07 2013 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
##Nuke: Xatalos If he had a nuke, why wouldn't it have been launched here? Unless the nuke could be launched only by a PM to the hosts, rays nuke should have been launched at Xata early D1. On July 07 2013 08:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Anyone who has a nuke available nuke geript. He's scum. On July 07 2013 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
SOMEONE NUKE CHEZINU ASAP! HE IS NUKING TOWN! ANTI-NUKE! WHATEVER!
plz On July 07 2013 09:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i do not have a nuke. I tell that now. SOMEONE NUKE CHEZINU!
Anyone who is town and has a nuke, nuke Chezinu-. Rayn calling for others to be nuked. If he had a nuke why wouldn't he nuke them himself? On July 07 2013 18:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
jampidampi look at MZ and tell me what do you see. Here he's asking opinions on Meapak 10 min before mods confirmed the launch. If he's trying to get permission to fire the nuke or confirmation for his scumread wouldn't he wait until after the responses to fire the nuke? If he had already set his mind on nuking Meapak, why ask others for their opinion on Meapak? On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you? No it was not me. I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so. Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me. Rays first post after the launch. If there is no downside for claiming a silent nuke why wouldn't you claim it right then? The bolded is especially odd. If you launched the nuke, why would it pop in to your mind that scum are trying to frame you by nuking your scumread who is actually town? Is it possible that there is a required role where you must claim unclaimed nukes? If not, then maybe he just wanted to stir up some action. In either case, I am really interested in why WoS has a town read on Maepak. That type of post is exactly what I'm being suspected for yet no one cares when CA does it. I feel town has been very stubborn in advocating my lynch and has began to tunnel. Look at the evidence and I don't see how it is possible to think the case against me is stronger than any other. Add to this the fact that I might die from the nuke and lynching me becomes completely foolish. Johnny even just finished an analysis proving so which disregards the fact that there is only poor evidence against me. If people truly think I am scum, think of this nuke on me as a bonus. Its a regular day with a regular lynch plus an XX% chance (the accuracy of the nuke) of hitting scum. If you lynch me you completely waste the point of a nuke. It makes far more sense to vote for the actual scummiest person here and see if the nuke hits. If it doesn't hit, lynch me the next day and no lynch discussion has been wasted. Also if you lynch scum and the nuke hits and I'm scum you're definitely reducing their kp instead of killing one person and maybe reducing kp. So, no matter what you think of me, lynching me today is an awful decision. In my opinion right now I think Geript is the scummiest. That nuke shot based on an assumption that was obviously wrong that, if truly innocent, he put absolutely no effort into researching, wasted a days discussion and flew in the face of what others in the thread were trying to accomplish. ##Vote Geript Wierd vote choice here, geript isnt getting lynched. I dont like what geript did and some of his positions but I dont see scum makeing big waves like that. This just makes me think you dont want to bus you scum buddy austin.
Wierd timeing there stutters...
|
TRACKING MULTIPLE TARGETS. LOCKING...
MajuGarzett (5): johnnywup, Ace, geript, [UoN]Sentinel, Alakaslam, Stutters695, CaucasianAsian
Stutters695 (1): [UoN]Sentinel, CaucasianAsian, Alakaslam, gumshoe
geript (3): WaveofShadow, MajuGarzett, Koshi
Z-BosoN (1): Chezinu, Onegu
austinmcc (3): strongandbig, Alakaslam, Onegu
Chezinu (2): [UoN]Sentinel, VayneAuthority
gumshoe (1): Oatsmaster
TARGET: MajuGarzett is set to be obliterated!
Obliteration will occur at: 21:59 GMT (+00:00) which arrives in
Nukes can no longer be fired.
|
Why is MG still being lynched exactly?
|
i thought s0lstice was nuked. broken game
oh yeah, unvote for now. I was liking an austin lynch a lot yesterday but he's been making a lot of good posts lately and aghhhhhhh. I don't know.
##unvote
|
Wait stutters why did you say you were voteing geript in thread but voteing MG?
|
On July 15 2013 01:27 Onegu wrote:
We really need to agree on a lynch. I disagree with everything geript has done and suggested, but it seems almost to obvious for him to be scum.
Are ninja votes a scumtell?
I really prefer a austin lynch, with everything xata posted, plus I dont like his claim or his defense as there is no way we can or should read things into a closed setup. Unless someone claims to have shutdown a nuke maker, he should be the target since I cant get anyone on z-bosan.
Vote: Austin ? If someone claims to have shut down a nuke maker, that should make you want to lynch me MORE. If nobody else claims to have shut down stutters, then my claim is true OR both stutters and I are lying for little to no reason.
Furthermore, there isn't "no way" to read things into a closed setup. Things have happened. We can interpret those things. Essentially you're ignoring that there's been a silent nuke D1 and D2, but not D3. You're saying that conflicts with your read, so ... closed setup, must be lying, gg. But you're trusting that ace actually has a nuke, trusting that we have missile defense systems, and all sorts of other stuff. The setup as a whole is closed. That doesn't mean everyone is lying about everything, and it means we just have to intuit as much as we CAN. Again, MAYBE someone is holding a silent nuke, MAYBE there were only 2 silent nukes. But neither of those makes more sense, at least to me, and hopefully not to you, than stutters being the launcher of silent nukes.
If one of the other explanations makes MORE sense to you, then by all means, let's chat about it. But if no other scenario makes more sense, don't just hide behind "closed setup." Whether open or closed, there IS a setup. It's up to you to figure out what you think it's most likely to be.
|
Deadline should have passed, so Stutters was telling the truth. Austin also confessed to raiding him so he was telling the truth about that too.
austin why did you wait this long to tell the truth about targeting Stutters? You read the interaction between me and him when we were both confused about why the nuke never went off. You could have said something right?
|
I'm down to lynch geript for using his defense on jampi, but I'd rather lynch Austin.
I don't understand why stutters would have given ace the nuke, then told us it was fake, if it was actually real and stutters is scum. That whole concept just doesn't really compute for me, what action would he have been trying to induce by the lie.
If people really think Maju is scum then I don't think it makes sense to let the nuke land "just in case" stutters was lying and it's real. If you think Maju is scum, lynch him. Then lynch stutters if you think him lying about his role is a scum tell. But we know he lied about his role at least once, how does it make a difference if he lied a second time and the first time was actually the true one.
|
On July 15 2013 01:02 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 00:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
So basically your case is an association case, is that right? It's not, really. You're not reading the case properly. Regardless on MG's flip Geript is trying to force us to waste our time. Someone said they asked Artanis whether it would show if the nuke lands if we lynch MG and apparently it DOESN'T. This means that Geript will have wasted our time again and we will learn absolutely nothing about Stutters' role if he has is way and we lynch MG.
this is based on the jampi nuke situation? (speed reading here)
|
On July 15 2013 01:51 Ace wrote:
Deadline should have passed, so Stutters was telling the truth. Austin also confessed to raiding him so he was telling the truth about that too.
austin why did you wait this long to tell the truth about targeting Stutters? You read the interaction between me and him when we were both confused about why the nuke never went off. You could have said something right? I was waiting to see if a silent nuke got launched today. Possibility of that ended 7ish hours ago.
The early confusion was you hearing that stutters's factory got raided, and so thinking your nuke had been destroyed. But seeing as you appear to have still had a nuke...I figured you could sort that one out.
|
On July 15 2013 01:51 strongandbig wrote:
I'm down to lynch geript for using his defense on jampi, but I'd rather lynch Austin.
I don't understand why stutters would have given ace the nuke, then told us it was fake, if it was actually real and stutters is scum. That whole concept just doesn't really compute for me, what action would he have been trying to induce by the lie.
If people really think Maju is scum then I don't think it makes sense to let the nuke land "just in case" stutters was lying and it's real. If you think Maju is scum, lynch him. Then lynch stutters if you think him lying about his role is a scum tell. But we know he lied about his role at least once, how does it make a difference if he lied a second time and the first time was actually the true one.
Neither one looks like a true one, tbh. That whole choosing the type of nuke with NO information about types of nukes does not make sense.
I see reason concerning stutters and ace and stutters's alignment. I don't see any reasoning concerning why I'm doing what I'm doing if I'm town/scum, nor do I see anything about no silent nuke. Why do you think there is no silent nuke today?
|
On July 15 2013 01:53 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 01:51 Ace wrote:
Deadline should have passed, so Stutters was telling the truth. Austin also confessed to raiding him so he was telling the truth about that too.
austin why did you wait this long to tell the truth about targeting Stutters? You read the interaction between me and him when we were both confused about why the nuke never went off. You could have said something right? I was waiting to see if a silent nuke got launched today. Possibility of that ended 7ish hours ago. The early confusion was you hearing that stutters's factory got raided, and so thinking your nuke had been destroyed. But seeing as you appear to have still had a nuke...I figured you could sort that one out.
I did sort it out 
I was saying why you didn't just fess up, but if you think Stutters was silent nuking then sure. If a silent nuke did get launched how would that have incriminated him though? Like what was your plan of action?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
