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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:54 FirmTofu wrote: Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role. Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this. Even if there is, I think that a parity cop check on Alakaslam is conceivably worth the claim at this point. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:57 Alakaslam wrote: I would kiss your feet for this aqua if not for the mod note that said there can be as many of anything. On June 28 2013 15:56 Aquanim wrote: ... Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this. ... | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:01 FirmTofu wrote: I agree that the claim is worth it, but the fact remains that you are deliberately lying. If I recall correctly, I was crucified for this a few pages back. Just saying. (I don't actually think it's bad to lie as town) I am not lying. I have never seen a doubled power-role in a normal mini game, I think that they are a fundamentally bad idea, the play of experienced players in every normal mini I have ever seen implicitly assumes there is only one, I have seen a host laughed at in the Obs QT for saying to the newbies that there might be more than one of a role... I can tell you for a fact that there is at most one of any power role in this game. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:55 hzflank wrote: If you are JK do NOT claim! Talk to a coach if you need to. I do not want to see a Jailkeeper claim right now. Please! I agree that a Jailkeeper should talk to their coach. Make sure you explain the entire situation! | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:26 FirmTofu wrote: Aquanim, can you please unvote? At least temporarily? No, for the same reason I can't imagine you'll unvote Onegu: because we're lynching one or the other and I think I'm voting for scum. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote: What a shit storm. I'm seeing my name throw around a lot. Trying to come up with a scenario where both Onegu and Alakaslam are Town (which is my belief). Can someone save me some time and double-check my work by stating in the simplest way the conflict between Onegu's and Alakaslam's claims? Onegu has claimed that he is the Watcher and that he watched Alakaslam. Alakaslam has claimed that he is the Tracker, and that he tracked Onegu to Hurricane (you). If Onegu visited Alakaslam, Alakaslam is lying about tracking Onegu and so he is scum. If Onegu did not visit Alakaslam, Onegu is lying about his night action and so he is scum. Either way, one of them is lying and is scum. (Onegu claims to have seen somebody visit Alakaslam but it's not central to the contradiction.) | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
I believe that of these two Alakaslam is the scum. I don't trust Spicy or StiMaDDict to listen to me (because I suspect they're scum) and I don't think that FirmTofu is capable of detunneling from Onegu at this point. I will need both of you to listen to turn around this lynch. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Aquanim
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Aquanim
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On June 28 2013 18:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If this is gonna work, you're going need to speak plain, or I'll need to get some sleep and get at this with a fresh brain. Is the information you're trying to convey too sensitive to just say outright? If so, I will put mental energy into this as you have requested. (But I won't like it.) Nah, I just wanted you to think about it for yourself to see if you came to the same conclusion I did. I'm still working on my post (could take a while) but I'll explain my point then. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:07 hzflank wrote: I just want to put this out there for anyone who cares to answer: What are the odds that there is a Mafia Tracker who tracked Hurricane? Better than you might think. I think I saw one or two small slips from Hurricane indicating he had some kind of role, so there's no reason scum couldn't have as well. This is still a good point, though. Another interesting point is: If Onegu is scum, how did the mafia know that nobody else visited Alakaslam? Wallpost along these lines is incoming as soon as I check it for typos and bbcode faults. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:31 hzflank wrote: I do not like the fact that Hurricane's first reaction was: "The mafia tracked me and Onegu is scum". If I were Hurricane, my first reaction would of been: "I can confirm Onegu's claim so Alakaslam is scum". Btw, I have been through all the possible scenarios. I was weary of telling the scum who our blues are, but to be honest I already did that a couple of pages ago because I am a compete idiot. So, either... Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is Mafia Framer Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane Either the scum tracked Hurricane, or Hurricane is the Mafia Framer. Why does the Mafia Tracker have to have tracked Hurricane in the second instance? Onegu's power would let him know that Hurricane visited Alakaslam, and Alakaslam's claim does not reference Hurricane's actions. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:40 hzflank wrote: Because the mafia did not know who Onegu's number one town read was. Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:42 Aquanim wrote: Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence. On June 28 2013 20:43 hzflank wrote: That's a big gamble for them to take. They have no reason to take such a big risk when they are winning. Let me rephrase this: Alakaslam could claim that Onegu had visited anyone other than him and it would have made Onegu just as guilty. The fact that Alakaslam happened to claim that Onegu had visited the person who Onegu in fact saw is irrelevant to the scum's plan if Alakaslam is scum. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Or: Why Onegu is town and Alakaslam is scum We can examine three possible situations here: Situation 1
+ Show Spoiler + Why did Onegu fake-claim what he did? In my opinion, fake-claiming Watcher is inherently a risky proposition for two reasons: 1) It is likely that there is a town Watcher or Tracker, and either of these could counterclaim you (the counterclaim from the Tracker is uncertain and probably won't happen immediately, but I very strongly doubt that there is a Parity Cop, Watcher and Tracker for town - too much investigative power). 2) All it takes is one person to have visited your target that you don't know about and you are completely busted. Claiming Tracker is inherently less risky, since you can perfectly replicate that with a scum power. Veteran less risky still, since you don't even have to fake any powers and it's perfectly explainable why scum haven't shot you. My guess is that Hurricane will claim Nosy Neighbor (which we could believe with much more certainty if he'd claimed it Day 1... just saying...), so if scum happened to track Hurricane then they might use that to partially "confirm" Onegu's power. It doesn't really matter what he claims though. I also don't think the time that Onegu chose to claim Watcher is particularly indicative that he is scum. I would think that scum would only take such a risk if they thought they were very likely to be lynched, just the same as a townie would only claim it (without evidence to convict scum) if he thought he was very likely to be lynched. In either case, seeing as Onegu knew he would largely be unavailable today, he wanted to get it out in the open fairly early so he would have enough time to discuss it. Summary: Onegu's Watcher claim makes very little sense as a scum fake-claim. Fakeclaiming Watcher is inherently risky since even if scum knows that somebody visited Alakaslam, they cannot possibly know that nobody else visited Alakaslam. I also don't see the timing of it as inherently scummy, nor do I think his target is completely unbelievable if he is town (see below). Situation 2
+ Show Spoiler + Why did Onegu check Alakaslam? + Show Spoiler + Damned if I know. Maybe he was hoping to catch the framer? Alakaslam is one of the most likely people in the thread to be framed IMO regardless of his alignment. (Yes, framer can frame either alignment to be its opposite, I checked.) PRE-EDIT: This is indeed the reason that Onegu claims to have watched Alakaslam. I wrote the above before he claimed this, so the fact that we are both thinking the same way is major town-points in my book. With all respect to him and his play (since I think he was the only one of us voting scum Day 1  ), based on his play so far I don't expect we can reasonably expect for Onegu to have made the optimal decision with his night actions. Watcher is a very uncommon role, and Onegu isn't very experienced. You can say "why didn't he ask his coach?" but the sad fact is that most townies don't consult with their coaches as much as they should :/If he truly had no idea who the nightkill would be then I can see what he did as a reasonable play. tl;dr If Onegu had watched someone more likely to be killed my townread on him would be better, but I don't think a suboptimal decision with his Watcher power is sufficient grounds to lynch him, especially considering the sheer unlikeliness of Watcher as a fakeclaim. When comparing an unlikely option to a stupid and incredibly unlikely one, I prefer unlikely. Why did Onegu claim when he did? I don't see anything wrong with his explanation: On June 28 2013 19:28 Onegu wrote: I was going to sleep and I wanted to get the information out there, I knew I would be busy and I felt like the information was important to create a good town atmosphere and help people make reads with the information I provided. Why did Alakaslam fake-claim Tracker? + Show Spoiler + Hypothesis: Besides Alakaslam, the scumteam is composed of two players from the set {Spicydinosaur, StiMaDDict, LoneMeow}. I personally think that at least one, and probably two, of these three are scum. + Show Spoiler + Even if you don't agree with this hypothesis, all that is required to follow the following argument is that removing Onegu as a possible mislynch greatly decreases the likelihood that scum can secure the required mislynches for victory. I don't think this is debatable. At the start of the day, scum required two more mislynches from town to win. The playerlist was as follows: + Show Spoiler + Hurricane Sponge FirmTofu Aquanim hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict Onegu I think all of the names in green are town and I don't think scum could reasonably expect to mislynch any of us. However, they don't need to: two of the other names are town and are reasonable mislynches for scum to aim for. However, if Onegu is confirmed town through his claim, the list looks like this: + Show Spoiler + Hurricane Sponge FirmTofu Aquanim hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict Onegu There are now not enough plausible mislynches for scum to win. Clearly they are going to have to do something drastic. To get enough mislynches in this situation, scum have to convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum. The most plausible way to do this is to find a way to counter Onegu's claim, since there is still some thread sentiment against him, and without the claim FirmTofu at least has proved his desire to see Onegu lynched. Alakaslam is probably the most expendable of the scumteam, since there have been widespread suspicions of him in the thread, and if he starts saying anything meaningful in the thread to further a scum agenda it will be utterly uncharacteristic of his previous play; therefore he is the obvious member of the scumteam to claim. If Alakaslam is in fact telling the truth, he happens to be the tracker, who happened to track the one person who claimed today, to someone who he claims not to have visited. It is an incredibly convenient claim - in fact, I think it's the only claim he could have made which would make Onegu scum, besides straight-up counterclaiming as Watcher. As I said in the first section, Watcher is a risky fakeclaim for scum. (Since Onegu would have claimed to have been roleblocked if he had been, as either alignment, JK would not have worked to make Onegu scum.) Sure, if we lynch Onegu first Alakaslam will be the next one to die. However, at that point we will be at LYLO, which gives scum a good chance to win; that's more chance than I think they had before Alakaslam's claim. (This rationale doesn't apply to Onegu's hypothetical fakeclaim because at the point he claimed the scumteam would have had no expectation at all that they could trade lynching someone else, like Alakaslam, for lynching Onegu.) tl;dr If Onegu became confirmed town there aren't enough plausible mislynch targets left for scum to win. Scum had to stop this at any cost. They don't mind trading Alakaslam for Onegu. Summary: There is a clear scum motivation for Alakaslam to claim Tracker, and the way that his track implicates the recently claimed Watcher is incredibly convenient. Situation 3
Summary: Unlikely but concievable as some master scum move. As far as today goes we can't go wrong by lynching either of them anyway if this is true so I intend to ignore this situation for now. Fakeclaiming Watcher is inherently risky for scum. Scum do not like to take risks. Fakeclaiming Tracker is inherently less risky. If Alakaslam is scum they know Alakaslam will be confirmed scum after Onegu flips. Even so, they could be confident enough in lynching Onegu first, and happy enough with a one-for-one trade (which further allows them to kill two town leaders before serious lynch discussions recommence), to make it a winning proposition for them. This is particularly true since failing in this gambit has almost exactly the same consequences as not trying it at all, i.e. a likely town win. Previous to their claims I thought Alakaslam was much more likely to be scum than Onegu based on the character of their play, and nothing about these fakeclaims changes that for me. My vote is staying on Alakaslam. I want anyone who disagrees with this read to say exactly what in the above case, and in my previous investigations of Onegu and Alakaslam, they disagree with. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote: Simplified: Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane If "power role" in case 1 includes NN and scum roles I think this is correct. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 21:01 hzflank wrote: I think I can make a case against Alakaslam in one sentence: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. If Alakaslam is town then Onegu is scum and so his "town read" is irrelevant. I think this should read: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. which isn't totally implausible. Furthermore, if they hadn't Onegu could easily have just claimed that nobody visited whoever he targeted. (Like I said, though, this has the inherent risk that someone did - just like any fakeclaim of Watcher. I agree that Alakaslam is by far the most likely of the two to be scum, but I don't think this reason quite holds water. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Scum essentially have to shoot a Watcher since he is too great a threat to them. A Tracker? - not so much. There's a reasonable chance that they won't target the scum, at least not the ones with the nightkill. Scum could plausibly shoot a strong townie over the Tracker IMO, if only to introduce WIFOM. A Watcher, on the other hand, is much more likely to watch the nightkill target - and get a basically confirmed scum every time he does. If a claimed Watcher doesn't die he is very likely to be scum - Watcher is a crazy powerful town role. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote: I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effectno matter which one flips mafia. Whichever one we lynch, we end up with the same information - one is town, one is scum, and whatever corrolaries that one being mafia has. I don't even think this argument makes sense. Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim. Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach). After Onegu's claim Alakaslam was the next likely lynch. I can't see why a scum team wouldn't tell Alakaslam to make a claim that contradicted Onegu's, on the grounds that they might at least trade a town PR for his death. I think Alakaslam is less bumbling and incompetent than he'd have us believe. If Alakaslam is scum there are probably scum voting for him - why would they do that? If all the scum in this game voted for Onegu at this point they'd stick out like a sore thumb. Furthermore, I don't even think it would save Alakaslam at this point (there are enough townies that even if the entire scum team votes with you on Onegu, Alakaslam may still be the lynch). They would have voted Onegu if it looked certain that he would be lynched with a clear majority (which would make them look less suspicious). If they would be strongly culpable for lynching him, it probably wouldn't be worth it to them. Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. This argument is almost completely irrelevant, even if it's true. Lynching the scum, rather than the town PR, is much, much more important than whatever "information" we would gain either way. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim. | ||
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