|
On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote:
Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim.
I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point.
P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*
|
Just putting out there for the record that StiM has once again vanished into the void. I have to revise my case on him, but it seems I won't have to entirely scrap it.
|
On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. [/red]
You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please.
|
On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote:
Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*
It's obviously possible to read Onegu, and there's good discussion that can be had about whether to lynch him and why, and it would give information on others.
Stim, on the other hand, is lurky and impossible to read if he doesn't post more. There's almost no discussion that can be had about him, so a lynch on him would probably result in a day with minimal discussion, bad for town.
Worse case scenario for Stim is that we lose a player who wasn't going to post anyway, whereas worst case for Onegu is we lose a townie who could be helpful.
|
Humor me. What's the difference between StiM and LoneMeow? A vacation?
|
Went back and did my own homework. LoneMeow has nearly the exact same track record scumhunt as most of us. So there's that. Don't let results spoil a good theory, eh?
|
On June 26 2013 12:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1!
See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon.
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Out because work
@AlakaslamI also need you to tell me what is wrong with this post. (Class, don't help him.)
For starters direct disobedience to what I posted in the spoiler at the bottom of the post you quoted for my homework. Is also selfish, sarcastic, paranoid, a knee-jerk reaction, and contradictory to ideas I had raised earlier an have since. And I posted out of raw emotion.
More coming on homework, going to avoid spamming!
Btw. Yes, I know. You are a prophet sir. 
|
On June 26 2013 13:08 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1!
See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon.
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Out because work
@AlakaslamI also need you to tell me what is wrong with this post. (Class, don't help him.) For starters direct disobedience to what I posted in the spoiler at the bottom of the post you quoted for my homework. Is also selfish, sarcastic, paranoid, a knee-jerk reaction, and contradictory to ideas I had raised earlier an have since. And I posted out of raw emotion. More coming on homework, going to avoid spamming! Btw. Yes, I know. You are a prophet sir.
If that's all you found wrong with that quote, we have a problem. I need you to read it extremely carefully. There is a very specific answer I'm looking for, and it will be very obvious when you find it.
|
On June 26 2013 13:01 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Humor me. What's the difference between StiM and LoneMeow? A vacation?
Lonemeow is more actively looking for scum, albeit in a lurky way. You can see that he's pressured some people and interacted with the thread a bit.
Stim is more opportunistic. He votes Aqua as the wagon is building up, and comes up with a weak case on him later.
Not super strong reads on either of them (because lurk), but Stim is scummier.
|
On June 26 2013 12:52 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. [/red]
My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum.
|
On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:52 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. [/red]
Can you make an updated case for either Aqua or Alakaslam, whoever is your primary target at this time?
|
On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote:
Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink*
I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons:
1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence.
2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose...
Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire.
Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him.
|
On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote:
Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him.
This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town.
|
On June 26 2013 13:26 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:52 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. Can you make an updated case for either Aqua or Alakaslam, whoever is your primary target at this time? [/red]
Yes I will, I want to see what night actions are though. Aqua is my main focus now, like I said it would be day one if xzav flipped town
|
On June 26 2013 13:32 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:26 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:52 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. Can you make an updated case for either Aqua or Alakaslam, whoever is your primary target at this time? Yes I will, I want to see what night actions are though. Aqua is my main focus now, like I said it would be day one if xzav flipped town [/red]
I'd really love to hear them now, in case you get NK'd.
|
On June 26 2013 13:18 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:08 Alakaslam wrote:On June 26 2013 12:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1!
See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon.
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Out because work
@AlakaslamI also need you to tell me what is wrong with this post. (Class, don't help him.) For starters direct disobedience to what I posted in the spoiler at the bottom of the post you quoted for my homework. Is also selfish, sarcastic, paranoid, a knee-jerk reaction, and contradictory to ideas I had raised earlier an have since. And I posted out of raw emotion. More coming on homework, going to avoid spamming! Btw. Yes, I know. You are a prophet sir. If that's all you found wrong with that quote, we have a problem. I need you to read it extremely carefully. There is a very specific answer I'm looking for, and it will be very obvious when you find it.
Nonchalance toward lynching someone on no case?
Man, I am at a loss but don't tell me.
Reading Onegu's filter just gave me the chills.
Kind of should but I'm not going to defend because homework, and trying to understand the above.
I will say Onegu has been antagonizing me since early on and so if he flips red a lot of my confusion will lift. I took him for correcting errors, thanked him and apologized immediately following this, and he is then attacking the errors.
I took it as town play because he was fixing errors but how manipulative a scum you can find must be beyond me.
Main thin I'm learning so far is do not disregard the general guide thread. Or read it and forget.
|
On June 26 2013 13:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:32 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 13:26 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:52 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. Can you make an updated case for either Aqua or Alakaslam, whoever is your primary target at this time? Yes I will, I want to see what night actions are though. Aqua is my main focus now, like I said it would be day one if xzav flipped town I'd really love to hear them now, in case you get NK'd. [/red]
Ok I will post them after breakfast and I take care of my kid.
|
Returning to our regularly scheduled broadcast of "anything other than blue roles":
I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions:
1) Does this person believe in the arguments they are presenting?
2) Is this person afraid of getting attention and being scrutinised?
(These questions could profitably be applied to a read through the filter of any player in a game of Mafia, hence the third person. In fact, I would suggest that you do apply these questions to any of your reads.)
If you have any questions I'm happy to answer them. I don't plan on posting anything huge until the night-action deadline (one hour before the daypost) since the next move is mostly scum's and I don't see anything to be gained by showing my reads before then.
|
On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Hint time. Reading comprehension is a huge part of this game. We need to be very careful about correcting significant typos like this.
|
On June 26 2013 13:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote:
Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town.
Sure, I have a couple of names on my scumlist, but I'm not willing to bet the farm on any of them just yet.
Like I said, a Vigilante is unlikely to be mislynched since he can claim, and the odds of him being shot are relatively low. A Vigilante is likely to be alive in the next night phase, and being able to take a shot when there is more information to decide a target is a good thing.
Also, a successful Vigilante shot at this point does not increase the number of mislynches before scum win. An unsuccessful Vigilante shot DOES decrease the number of mislynches before scum win. The town has a lot to lose through an unsuccessful Vigilante shot, and not as much to gain as might otherwise be the case. Obviously shooting scum is good, but a missed shot would be catastrophic.
Perhaps instead of thinking I'm scum because I have a different opinion on Mafia theory to you, you should seriously consider my arguments?
|
|
|
|
|
|
3171
722
103
EPT
