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Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum[/red] and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
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Okay, it seems that Chromatically and I already agree. (I didn't read his post before posting mine)
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On June 26 2013 11:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Both of the confirmed townies (see: dead) have stated support for Xzavier and suspicion of Aqua. Spicy also briefly mentioned that he was "not convinced on the aqua vote either and ill post my thoughts on that later", and was the most visible supporter of Xzavier. However, either I can't find those thoughts, or he never got the follow-up out because it was the opener to his Case against yours truly.
@Spicy
Do you feel like elaborating on your thoughts about Aqua now, or are they no longer relevant / valid?
O.O Can I do nothing right.
Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.)
Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good.
I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD
No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread.
A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry).
You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler + "After all, you just lynched two townies with me. I'm CONFIRMED red, aren't I? So I'd be one less KP when gone"
Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter?
I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler + what I just did with most of us. mind you, because trying to read scum less carefully...
+ Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=301748 I haven't followed this because I got nutzy after people said I was lurking. Like on page 11. "You don’t have to be a super-active poster to prove your innocence or be useful to the town." WELL AREN'T I A CLASS-A EXAMPLE OF THAT TRUTH. Rather, I have been disobeying "Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos."
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On June 26 2013 12:15 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 11:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Both of the confirmed townies (see: dead) have stated support for Xzavier and suspicion of Aqua. Spicy also briefly mentioned that he was "not convinced on the aqua vote either and ill post my thoughts on that later", and was the most visible supporter of Xzavier. However, either I can't find those thoughts, or he never got the follow-up out because it was the opener to his Case against yours truly.
@Spicy
Do you feel like elaborating on your thoughts about Aqua now, or are they no longer relevant / valid? O.O Can I do nothing right. Now I see how scummy ^^ looks (I mean my post.) Feh! What am I worried about. My Lynch would give town a lot of confusion though. Not good. I get a strong feeling Mafia are actually pretty active this game, kind of puppetmastering and doing a good job of it. They've got me so far XD No case for the above? Well, it's because of my general feeling based on the whole thread. A lot of people accusing with weak cases or, like me, just avoiding accusing because they're worried their case will be weak (which is in itself scummy in a way- that worry). You know? Really, I'm just very new and very wishy washy. Feel free to ask me stuff, I'll see it on my spare time and I'll try to answer. A lot of stuff I've done I have done to try to be a sideline resource to town. I haven't the best of skill at reading people anywhere, but one thing I can do is tell the truth and navigate TL. So ask me, try to entrap me and make me guilty worse than I am. I need some Town confirmation if I'm going to be useful, and that is the only way I can think of to confirm myself town. Otherwise, please just lynch me. + Show Spoiler + "After all, you just lynched two townies with me. I'm CONFIRMED red, aren't I? So I'd be one less KP when gone" If everyone thinks I'm scum, I'm just dead-weight because nobody believes me. So even scumreads from me become spam, and useless fluff. Has anyone actually considered the motivation behind my filter? I know why I look scummy, heck you guys convinced me (lol). So, I ask you. How do I fix that? What is at my disposal to help town? I thought towniness was any effort to aid town, not YOU MUST SCUMREAD THAT IS ONLY AID TO TOWN AND NO SHEEPING BRO, IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO USE YOUR VOTE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BECAUSE YOU ARE CONCERNED ABOUT + Show Spoiler + what I just did with most of us. mind you, because trying to read scum less carefully... . If that is actually true, then expect me to suck in the future. I will be a quick lynch. + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=301748 I haven't followed this because I got nutzy after people said I was lurking. Like on page 11. "You don’t have to be a super-active poster to prove your innocence or be useful to the town." WELL AREN'T I A CLASS-A EXAMPLE OF THAT TRUTH. Rather, I have been disobeying "Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos."
Not sure why you quoted me, but I just went through your whole filter. On a scale of Scum-to-Townie, I'd put you as a solid 'Potato'. I tried following your train of thought, and it damn near gave me a headache. If you can post thoughts in a much more concise manner from here on out, I'd consider it a personal favor.
You seem to be asking for homework, so I will give you some:
You associated yourself early with Onegu, even declaring that you would donate your vote to him to use as he pleased. What are your thoughts on him at this moment in light of his attitude toward how the the Day 1 lynch was shaping up late in the day? (Go read his filter. You do not have to respond in the next 10 seconds.)
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Alakaslam, would you be willing to vote for Onegu on Day 2?
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On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote:
Voting is requested! I will bandwagon out of bitterness until I see a really good defense. Not so much against the bbcode error (that would be hypocritical) but against... Baseless lurker accusations at the start of day 1!
See how I roll? Am I going to make those accusations? Maybe (I'm kind of doing just that) but in this case, it's because he already has a vote, and I am thinking of helping a bandwagon.
I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet.
##Vote: FirmTofu
Out because work
@Alakaslam
I also need you to tell me what is wrong with this post. (Class, don't help him.)
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On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 09:27 Chromatically wrote:Your case on Sponge? I have Sponge (and you) as strong town. I didn't much like Sponge's early game policy stuff either, but his recent posting is really townie. Look at page 2-3 of his filter particularly. He's freely offering opinions, posting a lot, interacting with others in a very townie way. Your case only looks at his early posting, but look at his recent posting, because that's where the towniness is. When I said "my case on Xzav", I meant this one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=25#495Has everyone read this?I'm getting the feeling that it was missed. I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy. And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches.
Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon.
Learning, learning....
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On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 26 2013 09:27 Chromatically wrote:Your case on Sponge? I have Sponge (and you) as strong town. I didn't much like Sponge's early game policy stuff either, but his recent posting is really townie. Look at page 2-3 of his filter particularly. He's freely offering opinions, posting a lot, interacting with others in a very townie way. Your case only looks at his early posting, but look at his recent posting, because that's where the towniness is. When I said "my case on Xzav", I meant this one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=25#495Has everyone read this?I'm getting the feeling that it was missed. I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy. And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches. Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon. Learning, learning....
We don't know if I was right until StiM flips. And that's not likely at this point because he's doing exactly what he needed to do to get me to drop my case on him (assuming he follows his M.O. and posts a ton of Pro-Town Day 2 stuff like he did in XLII).
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On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 09:49 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 26 2013 09:27 Chromatically wrote:Your case on Sponge? I have Sponge (and you) as strong town. I didn't much like Sponge's early game policy stuff either, but his recent posting is really townie. Look at page 2-3 of his filter particularly. He's freely offering opinions, posting a lot, interacting with others in a very townie way. Your case only looks at his early posting, but look at his recent posting, because that's where the towniness is. When I said "my case on Xzav", I meant this one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=25#495Has everyone read this?I'm getting the feeling that it was missed. I dont like the vote for the lurker as it seemed an easy cop out. Then his switch to xzavier doesnt help as i think xzavier isnt scum. He has picked up commenting about cases a lot more, but that's to be expected when accused. There was a huge shift in his play style before and after my vote on him. Perhaps he became more active to push the mislynch? I honestly dont know but looking at his filter it just feels scummy. And your new case didnt really add anything new, just commented on xzaviers posts. At this point xzavier is going to be lynched barring some big last minute vote switches. Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon. Learning, learning....
Have you ever stopped to consider that the reason they appear the most "clear headed" is because they know that the flip will be town? You realize that if they know the flip is town, they are scum? I mean, this is common sense. The reason they look smart is because they know people's alignment and can act accordingly.
Scum tell are when you find these leaps in logic that indicate that a logical step in their reasoning assumes certain alignments. You've got to keep looking for these things.
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On June 26 2013 12:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam, would you be willing to vote for Onegu on Day 2?
Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet!
Going to homework, I need it! :p.
Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again.
If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_-
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Town needs to get it through their head that Onegu has made a blatant scum tell and that he is the default lynch on day do barring an egregious error by one of the scum. This is of the utmost importance.
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@FirmTofu
Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch)
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Tofu, I'm glad that we are thinking the same thing on Onegu.
I'm going to have another long look at Spicy and see if I can find some good reasons why he wasn't voting Xzav. It's possible that he might have been avoiding that for no reason to avoid suspicion.
I'm off the mind that the Xzav lynch had good reasoning behind it. Knowing what we knew, I would lynch him again (and a lot of strong town agreed with the reasoning, it seems).
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EBWOP: Or, for that matter, Aqua?
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On June 26 2013 12:36 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:26 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam, would you be willing to vote for Onegu on Day 2? Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet! Going to homework, I need it! :p. Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again. If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_-
Not only is the case laid out in plain sight for you to see, you are choosing, deliberately, to ignore our dire need to pursue this lynch. The case for Xzavier pales in comparison to the case we have on Onegu because we can work off the known fact that Xzavier flipped town.
Honestly, a lynch on Onegu should be a no-brainer for town at this point. I can think of no situation where a town-aligned person would behave in the way that he did.
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Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim.
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On June 26 2013 12:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, we got the bad end of the deal with that flip, but we can still make the best of it.
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum.
How likely is this scenario?
Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way.
Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance.
Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier.
Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie?
A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way.
Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game.
Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable.
1) hzflank
2) Onegu
3) Spicydinosaur
4) StiMaDDict
5) Alakaslam
6) Hurricane Sponge
Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list.
1) Onegu
2) Spicydinosaur
3) StiMaDDict
4) Alakaslam
Onegu:
Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier!
The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day.
I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis.
[/red]
Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon.
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On June 26 2013 12:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@FirmTofu
Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch)
Of course not. In my mind, Alakaslam is catapulting his way to the top of the scum ladder.
Assuming Onegu is scum, we can see that he chose to push the early stages of an Aqua lynch and then, when Xzavier was guaranteed to be lynched, Onegu switched his vote to Alakaslam based upon a fairly pathetic case.
My take?
Onegu is trying to use the last few hours of the day to place himself at odds with Alakaslam because they are both scum!
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On June 26 2013 12:40 Chromatically wrote:
Tofu, I'm glad that we are thinking the same thing on Onegu.
I'm going to have another long look at Spicy and see if I can find some good reasons why he wasn't voting Xzav. It's possible that he might have been avoiding that for no reason to avoid suspicion.
I'm off the mind that the Xzav lynch had good reasoning behind it. Knowing what we knew, I would lynch him again (and a lot of strong town agreed with the reasoning, it seems).
I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree.
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EPT
