EPT[M][N] Les Mafia - Page 122
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.' I really don't know what to make of this. After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though. At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote: SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.' I really don't know what to make of this. After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though. At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote: This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote: This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions And wait, what? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote: Unless there's 4 scum in which case we lose the game.This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
lynch mafia -> 5-3-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 4-3-1 lynch mafia -> 4-2-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 3-2-1 lynch mafia -> 3-1-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 2-1-1 lynch mafia -> 2-0-1, roleblock SK, win! The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles. Now, if we lynch the SK at 5-4-1 lynch SK -> 5-4-0, jailkeeper has to get one hero roleblock/jail and destiny is back in town's hands. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote: This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts? The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead. Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well........... | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:23 marvellosity wrote: if there are any holes in that, I'm all ears You're assuming that mafia don't already know who JK is. If Dandel is telling the truth it's reasonable to assume that they might know as well (does anyone here know? I think I might have an idea). Also if he is telling the truth considering the way he's been playing all game, is it likely that he'd actually completely fuck us (and maybe himself) by revealing the JK's identity? | ||
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JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On May 25 2013 00:31 Promethelax wrote: Am I missing something marv? Mafia RBing JK wont hurt since DL would still get blocked correct?If both Roleblocker and Jailkeeper exist, No. However a Roleblocked Jail Keeper's Roleblock will still go through. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:28 JarJarDrinks wrote: Am I missing something marv? Mafia RBing JK wont hurt since DL would still get blocked correct? look at the numbers, i'm assuming dandel's shot doesn't go through every night. mafia still has a shot. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:27 WaveofShadow wrote: You're assuming that mafia don't already know who JK is. If Dandel is telling the truth it's reasonable to assume that they might know as well (does anyone here know? I think I might have an idea). Also if he is telling the truth considering the way he's been playing all game, is it likely that he'd actually completely fuck us (and maybe himself) by revealing the JK's identity? it doesn't matter. if the mafia know who the JK is we're dead regardless. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:25 marvellosity wrote: The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead. Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well........... See this is more meta shit though and I am having a lot of trouble taking it all at face value as it seems almost everything directed at him is solely based on meta (aside from his decidedly odd play during this game). Is it likely that's he'd out himself like this if he knew how Spicy was going to flip? ALso marv do you have anything to say about the CONTENT of his rant post? Also what did you mean by 'even if Dandel is 100% mafia?' | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:31 WaveofShadow wrote: See this is more meta shit though and I am having a lot of trouble taking it all at face value as it seems almost everything directed at him is solely based on meta (aside from his decidedly odd play during this game). Is it likely that's he'd out himself like this if he knew how Spicy was going to flip? ALso marv do you have anything to say about the CONTENT of his rant post? Also what did you mean by 'even if Dandel is 100% mafia?' This isn't "meta shit". This is GK's *own* description of his play. In *this* game. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 25 2013 01:32 marvellosity wrote: This isn't "meta shit". This is GK's *own* description of his play. In *this* game. sorry, i should add that 'outing himself like this' devolves quite a lot into wifom. | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
for 6-3-1: -lynch scum-->6-2-1-->scum and SK must kill town-->JK blocks SK-->5-2-1 -lynch SK--> 6-3 --> 5-3 after the NK -mislynch town --> 5-3-1 --> scum kills town, SK must kill town to avoid 4-2-1 --> 4-3-1 if JK alive, 3-3-1 if not for 5-4-1: -lynch scum --> 5-3-1 --> scum kills town, SK must kill town to avoid 4-2-1 --> 4-3-1 with JK block on SK -lynch SK --> 5-4 --> 4-4 after NK and game is over -mislynch town --> we are fucked so lynching scum today gives us either 5-2-1 or 4-3-1 for tomorrow. 4-3-1 is a loss for town I think...it would lead to 4-2-1 after the lynch, and then either a 3-2-1 or a 2-2-1 depending on if the JK is still alive. Neither of these can result in a town win. 5-2-1 is a winnable situation for town...we get a free SK lynch, and a 4-2 after the following NK. lynching SK gives us a flat out 5-3, or a loss. If there are 4 mafia, they are going to be all about lynching the SK right now. | ||
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